Jim Wesley:
Today it is as difficult for a person to fathom gold at $5,000 per ounce as it was for a person to fathom $1,000 per ounce back in 2002. After all, hold a Krugerrand, in your hand and try to imagine it being worth the purchasing power of $5,000 – enough to buy a good running, nice looking used car.
Dollar predictions of gold are naturally what a prudent investor considers — today’s Internet articles find predictions ranging from “headed back down to $500” to “heading up to $6,500 in the coming years”. I must admit, I have been caught up in it since I jumped in [when spot gold was] at $395. But recently, I have been of a different mindset. Forget about dollar exchange; that will only confuse the issues. The way to fully understand and appreciate the value of gold should be / will be in it’s ability to exchange for goods and services.
The day cometh when confidence in the dollar will evaporate – it’s already fading worldwide. Last in the world to recognize and accept it will be Americans. But they too will wake up to the reality that their paper dollars are little more than paper promises from a government known more and more for breaking their promises. We are surely headed for double digit inflation and there are strong arguments for hyperinflation. Gold and silver will be recognized worldwide as the store of wealth – almost all currencies will be suspect. Unfortunately, for the masses, it will be too late.
Soon – I suspect within a year — gold and silver will jump significantly in value. I believe the rise will be faster than the rise from $1,000 to $1,224. I can imagine a string of ~5% days that result in a $200 move in spot. That will definitely grab media and public attention, but most will not jump in – waiting for the price to fall back. Instead, after a small consolidation, it will again jump by another couple hundred dollars. Exciting! But more important to your well being is to realize – this scenario means – the separation of the value of paper gold and real gold. You will have a heck of a time getting your hands on hard metal. And most of the people you know will have stored none of this new (old) money.
Don’t get me wrong, gold and silver will have a dollar equivalency, so you will be able to make exchanges. You will still be able to go to Kitco and get the spot price for precious metals. But the Central Bank manipulation game will be crumbling; supply and demand will dictate pricing and it won’t be pretty for many. You won’t be able to buy an Eagle anywhere. You can order it, but you won’t be able to get immediate delivery. You’ll pay up front with no committed delivery date – only estimated.
Fair market value for products and services will be up-in-the-air as well. For example, a truck (valued at $25,000 in 2007 dollars) might bring $10,000 or $6.500 or $14,000. Depending upon how useless the truck has become to the owner and how desperate he is for cash. You might be able to hire a $25.00 / hour carpenter for $50 per day. You might buy a $250,000 (2007 pricing) property for $100,000. The price for products and services will be – whatever you can get!
Forget about dollars. I might be able to exchange two of my ($395 cost) Krugers and a couple rolls of [silver] quarters for the truck. And both parties would be pleased with the sale. One pre-65 dime might buy a loaf of bread; a quarter might buy a T-bone steak; a silver dollar – a bag of groceries. I can see the carpenter willing to work under the table for a silver quarter per hour. Still receiving unemployment in paper dollars, he/she wants some ‘real’ money for the family. Gold and silver will be in greater demand than paper dollars. You will go to the front of the line if you are buying in either.
What kind of world would this be? Pension plan failures leaving millions of retirees without income, 25%+ unemployment leaving millions of young families in dire straits, the Dow at 5,000, bond market failure, further collapse in the residential housing market, unbridled monetization, state defaults, collapse of the division of labor, $7.00 gasoline, high food prices, abandoned malls, abandoned sections of cities, rationing of necessities, and a lot of social unrest. This world will leave the average citizen in a heck of a bind; desperate for day-to-day necessities. They will have lost their purchasing power; lost control of their lives.
Does this sound absurd? Do you think you just read the ranting of some nut? Is there a doctor in the house? Study the charts – study history – open your eyes. The status quo is history. We are in transition. Get ready. Don’t freak out – just get ready! If you want to preserve some personal/family wealth, then get out of the dollar – fast! In our immediate future, if you want to purchase items of value – you will need to exchange something of value. I’m betting on gold or silver? – M.R.B. in Oregon