I have recently heard about the grand solar minimum and am wondering if you guys have any thoughts on it? It seems to have some pretty serious implications regarding more extreme weather and how our climate is changing (which it always has been). I live on the gulf coast so preparedness for me has always been important due to hurricanes. My question is: out of all the climate hype that we have been inundated with over the last decade or so, is this something to really be taken seriously? It is wise to stay prepared nonetheless, however if the implications of a grand solar minimum are correct, could this be a perfect example of “the boy who cried wolf?” No one will bother to believe its implications.
A grand solar minimum would barely make a dent. The last one the earth experienced in the years between 1645 and 1715 (The Maunder Minimum) barely made any impact. The next lowest one would be the Dalton Minimum between 1790 and 1830 which wasn’t as low as the Maunder Minimum. Number wise, the Dalton Minimum represented about a 0.08% decrease of solar energy and the Maunder Minimum represented a 0.25% decrease. In the grand scheme of things, that is pretty minuscule.
High altitude flights might see a minor increase in radiation levels, but not enough to worry about. We don’t even know for sure if this is going to be a grand solar minimum or not. I doubt it will have much impact on anything other than communications due to the reduction in solar activity.
When you get down to the bottom of it, there is nothing but conjecture and guess. I would agree that the level of tech is high and there are many unknowns, but there is no hard evidence. Every video, blog, book, or article that I have read that attempt to make links to extreme weather or other phenomena have one incredibly simple but critical flaw:
Correlation does not mean causation
Just because “A” and “B” occur at the same time does not mean that “A” causes “B”. There are many unknowns. For instance, many sites will point to famine that occurred during grand solar minimums and then make the conclusion that the solar minimum is a cause of the famine. However, you will seldom hear about the famines that happen outside of a solar minimum in these same articles. Nor will you hear about the political atmosphere of the areas that see the famine which is known to have even greater bearing.
We most definitely live in the age of “Junk Science” where you can get a “scientific study” that will tell you anything you want to hear.