I’m glad that most of the SurvivalBlog readers stocked up on liquid fuels long ago. Here are some details on the wholesale oil supply reductions. This comes from an oil industry insider newsletter report (dated 22 September):
HURRICANE RITA UPDATE
Recent forecasts place Hurricane Rita directly over Galveston [now OBE], threatening the Houston area, home to almost 25 percent of U.S. refining capacity. OPIS estimates that by noon on Friday (9/23), refinery closures could impact as much as 3.8 million bbl/d of refining capacity. Current confirmed closures will affect approximately 2.7 million bbl/d of refining capacity.
Information is still being gathered on other potential affects of the storm, such as disruption of tanker shipments of crude oil and refined product barges.
The following is the latest information from OPIS on refinery closures:
CONFIRMED CLOSURES
Flint Hills, Corpus Christi, 305,000 bbl/d
ExxonMobil, Baytown, 580,000 bbl/d
BP, Texas City, 460,000 bbl/d
ConocoPhillips, Sweeny, 228,000 bbl/d
Marathon, Texas City, 76,000 bbl/d (anticipated)
DECISIONS PENDING
Valero, Texas City, 215,000 bbl/d
Valero, Houston, 85,000 bbl/d
Astra, Pasadena, 103,000 bbl/d
Lyondell-Citgo, 283,000 bbl/d
Shell Deer Park, 340,000 bbl/d
PIPELINE SHUTDOWN
Teppco is shutting down its Seaway crude pipeline, Baytown terminal operations and four pipelines from Texas City, Houston, Red Bluff and Baytown.
Dixie – Mont Belvieu facility shut down.
Port of Houston – closed as of 5 p.m. today.
STILL DOWN FOLLOWING HURRICANE KATRINA
ExxonMobil, Chalmette, LA,190,000 bbl/d
ConocoPhillips, Belle Chasse, LA, 260,000 bbl/d
Murphy, Meraux, LA, 125,000 bbl/d
Chevron, Pascagoula, Miss., 350,000 bbl/d
There is no way to estimate how long refineries will be offline due to Hurricane Rita. Fortunately some of the refineries are on higher ground than those affected by Hurricane Katrina, although storm surges of 20 feet resulting from Rita are currently predicted. Also, electricity outages could hinder the refineries’ ability to get back online, as well as personnel issues. Some 800,000 bbl/d have been lost due to Hurricane Katrina.
PRODUCTION
Offshore companies are continuing to evacuate facilities in Gulf of Mexico. MMS reports 469 platforms and 69 rigs have been evacuated. This represents 1,097,357 bbl/d of crude oil, which is 73.16 percent of daily Gulf Coast oil production.
POTENTIAL AREAS AFFECTED BY PRODUCT SHORTAGES
Areas served by these three major pipelines:
Colonial/Plantation (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Tennessee, West Virginia, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania)
Teppco (Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio)
Explorer (Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois)