Guest Article: Extremes: Expect Consequences-Part 1, by Gary Christenson

What extremes am I referencing?

The S&P 500 Index has tripled in six years, is overbought, and is at an all-time high. See graph showing 7-year cycle highs and overbought indicators.

W-SP

Earnings do not support the high valuations of U.S. stocks. Note the extreme valuations as shown in the graph below, courtesy of Arabian Money.

Median-PE

Interest rates are currently at multi-generational or all-time lows and consequently bonds are extremely high in the “bubble-zone.” Many European banks and sovereign governments are “paying” negative interest. This was unthinkable a few years ago!

The dollar index rallied over 25% between May 2014 and March 13, 2015– an exceptional and parabolic rally, particularly considering the precarious financial condition of the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve. See article here from Laurence Kotlikoff.

V-Dollar-Index

Derivatives, depending on who is counting, are approximately $1,000 trillion globally. This extreme bubble is growing, and all bubbles eventually pop.

Leverage in the financial system is more extreme than in 2008, before the “Lehman moment” crash in which the global financial system nearly froze.

The “Warren Buffett Indicator” is flashing a warning– equity valuations are high compared to GDP. See graph below.

W-Warren-buffett-Indicator

The Bloomberg Surprise Index is flashing a warning.

Bloomberg-Surprise-Index

There are many more extremes that could be shown, but consider a few specifics.

Robert McHugh has listed a sequence of Fibonacci turn dates at the end of March and early April 2015. Risk of a stock market crash or important correction seems high in this time period.

Markets often turn around solar eclipses. We experienced a solar eclipse on March 20.

Greece will exit the Euro. The issue is not Greece, as in the Greek people, their economy, or austerity but the paybacks to various banks, mostly French and German. The piper and the bankers must be paid or banking cartel profits will be decreased. Banking cartel profits are used to “influencing” politicians, so politicians listen to the needs of bankers. It is an old story…

We have many economic and political extremes in our current world. Perhaps this time will be different, but I doubt it. Plan on:

Debt will increase until a “reset” occurs. Politicians will “extend and pretend” and make MANY promises. The S&P has enjoyed a large rally in the last six years. It will correct. Bonds are in a massive bubble, partially created by the low and negative interest rates forced upon the system by central banks. All bubbles eventually burst, however. Gold and silver and their stocks have been beaten down for nearly four years. They will rally to new highs.

Additional Reading:
Bill Holter “Three Strikes and You’re Out!
Steve St. Angelo “Important Gold Chart

Gary Christenson – The Deviant Investor

Bookmark the permalink.



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.
Anonymous comments are allowed, but will be moderated.
Note: Please read our discussion guidlelines before commenting.