This article first appeared at the highly-recommended Alt-Market blog. It is re-posted with permission.
As I predicted in my article ‘Trump Trade Wars A Perfect Smokescreen For A Market Crash’, published in March of 2018, as well as in my article ‘The Trade War Distraction: Huawei And Linchpin Theory’, published in December of 2018, the US/China trade dispute has escalated into an all out war with no end in sight. The claims of many analysts and skeptics a year ago that the trade war would be over quickly and that China would fold to US tariffs has been proven incorrect. The reason why these analysts got it so wrong centers primarily on their misunderstanding of the true purpose behind the events.
The goal of this war is NOT to balance the US trade deficit or pursue more fair circumstances for US exports and imports. The intention of the Trump Administration is NOT to fight back against Chinese “exploitation” of US markets, this kind of rhetoric is pure theater. Nor is it Trump’s intention to undermine globalist structures or agreements in order to bring back American manufacturing (a carrot that has been flaunted in front of American faces for a long time to lure them into supporting destructive policies such as dollar devaluation). On the contrary, the real purpose of Trump’s trade war is to provide a distraction massive enough to cover for the controlled demolition of the US economy and parts of the global economy by globalists and the central banks they control.
The tariff soap opera and most of Trump’s other foreign and domestic policies are eerily similar to those of Herbert Hoover just before the advent of the Great Depression. This is not a coincidence. The narrative for an economic collapse rivaling that of the Great Depression has been set, and the root circumstances are very similar.
Since the crash of 2008, the US has been suffering a slow grinding decline in fundamentals (the collapse of an empire often takes time). The response of central banks was to slow the crash using stimulus measures and near zero interest rates, but this strategy was not meant to reverse US economic decline. The purpose of QE was meant to inflate an even larger bubble than before, one that would encompass every aspect of the economy including the dollar; a bubble that when popped would devastate the US specifically and create panic around the world.
Now the stimulus phase of the globalist agenda is over. US M2 money supply growth has been decelerating and is hovering near 10 year lows, while stimulus measures have evaporated in most countries except China. Global dollar liquidity has been dwindling as the Federal Reserve continues to cut its balance sheet unabated.
This would explain why US equities are struggling to stay afloat despite the fact that corporate buybacks of stocks have increased to historic highs in 2019. Central banks, most importantly the Fed, are no longer propping up the system; the life support has been pulled and the parts of the economy that have been dependent are taking their last breaths.
The trade war situation as it is now is not enough of a distraction in my view, however. At least one more major event with global ramifications (or perceived global ramifications) is needed by the elites before they can implode the ‘Everything Bubble’ without taking the blame for the consequences.
Trade War Shock And Awe
There are several powderkegs that exist today that would serve the purpose of occupying the minds of the masses while the globalists finalize the crash. As noted, I continue to predict the trade war as it stands will accelerate unabated until the plunge in fundamentals and equities is complete. We haven’t seen anything yet as far as trade war chaos.
The US/China conflict has the potential to become an economic world war, with multiple countries beginning to take sides. Japan and the UK have opted to support US interests, which is not surprising since China and Japan have hated each other for generations and the US is the UK’s strongest economic partner in the wake of the Brexit. Already some people are declaring this to mean that the US will gain the majority of global support and crush China.
But keep in mind, as I outlined and evidenced in my recent article ‘America Will Lose The Trade War Because That Is What Globalists Want To Happen’, the trade war itself is a farce on both sides of the Pacific, as both China and the US are controlled by the same financial power centers (such as the Bank for International Settlements). The fact that some people are jumping on the patriot bandwagon to cheer for expanded confrontation with China as if a globalist engineered war is a war we can “win” is disturbing and sad to witness. My suspicion is that there is a concerted disinformation campaign in play on the internet to drum up the false impression of consensus support for the trade war while the activities of the real villains (the international banks) are ignored.
As this Kabuki theater moves forward, I think many analysts will find themselves shocked as more and more nations start taking China’s side in the conflict.
The most powerful option China has at its disposal is the dumping of US Treasuries and the dollar as the world reserve mechanism, but it is likely to use this tactic only when the US economy is at its most unstable. China is the number one exporter/importer in the world and the US consumer is ready to tap out as retail numbers stumble and household debt skyrockets. The US market is only 18% of Chinese exports, a sizable piece of the pie, but hardly a devastating blow to the Chinese economy should it be denied to them.
The bottom line is that China will ultimately dictate global trade terms as they possess the largest manufacturing base, they decide what currency they will accept, and whose debt they will prop up. China has also established very close economic ties with key nations over the past decade, including Russia, Germany, India, Australia, and even Saudi Arabia. Do not be surprised if most if not all of these nations eventually support China in the trade war, dropping the dollar as the reserve currency and following China’s lead.
Skeptics of this outcome are pretty much the same people that originally claimed the trade war would be over by now and that Trump would be victorious. They will cry foul today at the idea that the globalists have rigged the game and that the US is being set up to fail, but when they are shown to be wrong once again they will state proudly that they “saw it coming all along”.
China has yet to fully retaliate against the latest increase in US tariffs. When it does, the attack will be far larger than cutting off purchases of US agricultural goods. The next escalation could be the trigger than sends the crash into overdrive.
Iran War Looming
War with Iran at this time makes no sense whatsoever unless you look at it from a globalist perspective. The globalists are the only group that stands to gain from such catastrophe, as war with Iran would seal the fate of the US economy. The most immediate threat would be the potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which would take nothing more than sinking a few large cargo vessels along the narrow and more shallow portions of the straight, placing mine fields, or staging anti-ship missiles within striking range. The subsequent explosion in oil prices would be devastating to the global economy and the US economy would struggle under high energy prices even with expanded domestic oil drilling.
In the longer term complete destabilization of the Middle East would result, well beyond what we have already seen, and the costs to taxpayers as well as the cost in American lives would be high. Beyond this, the distraction would be epic and very effective. This event coupled with the trade war would fulfill the globalist narrative that the Trump Administration and the conservatives that support him are a “menace” to global stability. Any financial crash at that point would undoubtedly be blamed on Trump as well as his supporters.
Currently, the mainstream media is very quiet on the Iran situation despite the sudden shift of US military resources to the region, which leads me to believe that a conflict is being planned in the near term.
This event may not be concluded until the end of this year, but I still maintain as I always have that the Brexit and the growth of populism in Europe is a distraction that has actually been encouraged by globalists through the use of forced mass immigration measures to terrify the citizenry. I successfully predicted the outcome of the Brexit vote in 2016 based on this theory, and it still holds true so far today.
The “rise of the populists” in Europe and the US at the exact same time that central banks are withdrawing liquidity and at the exact same time that fundamentals are plummeting is yet another unlikely coincidence.
The only event that was needed to fulfill the populist takeover narrative was a major win by a nationalist party on the European mainland. Thanks to French president Macron being the worst leader in recent French history, that event has occurred. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party has overtaken Macron’s LREM party in the EU parliamentary elections. The populists have gained ground in Italy and Germany as well; not enough to retain any real influence, but enough to get blamed for the financial disaster that is about to happen.
The final plot twist the elites need in the EU, I believe, is a no-deal Brexit. I predict the Brexit will conclude and that the UK will indeed break with the EU. The latest announcement of Theresa May’s resignation seems to indicate that this will be the case, and that a no-deal scenario is the most probable scenario. The EU has publicly stated that there will be NO renegotiations of the Brexit deal after May leaves. Sovereignty activists will cheer the Brexit outcome, and then things will start to go horribly wrong. European markets will tank and certain major banks (Deutsche Bank and Italian majors?) will announce insolvency. The panic felt in 2008 will return and hit the EU and the UK hard, and the Brexit movement will get the blame while central banks escape any culpability.
Only one of these events is needed to initiate the next stage of economic collapse, but it is possible we will see all three occur in due course. While the current crash started at the end of 2018, the year of 2019 will probably be the one that is most remembered in history books as the beginning of Great Depression 2.0.