Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. Most of these items are from JWR’s “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the baby bull in precious metals.
Precious Metals:
Silver has been steadily climbing, in recent weeks. Despite some profit-taking on Friday (April 14), spot silver closed at $25.61 per Troy ounce! It now costs $26,900+ to buy a $1,000 face value bag of pre-1965 US. “junk” silver from a reliable “low mark-up” dealer. Some dealers are demanding more than $30,450! If you want to buy silver in any coin or bar form, then it pays to shop around for the lowest premiums. But, of course, only buy from reputable dealers.
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Charted: 30 Years of Central Bank Gold Demand.
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A little chartism from Morris Hubbartt, At Gold-Eagle.com: Gold & Silver: A Thunderous Rally.
Economy & Finance:
From all reports, American banks are still hemorrhaging deposits, as their customers seek both the safety and higher rates of return found in U.S. Treasury paper. I can foresee that the banking crisis will worsen in the coming months, especially if the FOMC keeps raising interest rates. So… Keep your deposits small and diverse. If you have all your deposits in just one bank, then you are trodding on dangerous ground. Here is a piece that might prove helpful to you: Which Banks Are in Danger of Failing or Collapse? And I must repeat my guidance: Avoid banks with large derivatives exposure. – JWR
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Jobless Claims Deterioration Across US States Indicates Impending Recession.
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The yield curve in the U.S. has now been inverted for three months. This is the deepest inversion since 1981. Historically, the 2-year/10-year yield curve has inverted for 6 to 24 months preceding each recession since 1955. If this situation continues, then it does not bode well, particularly for equities. The general economy could now easily tip over into recession. Meanwhile, the real estate crash — both residential and commercial — is just getting started. Plan accordingly.
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Linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site:
Commodities:
Martin Armstrong: Let Them Drive EVs. A quote from the article:
“The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is targeting gas vehicles in an attempt to reduce emissions. Their goal is to reduce carbon emissions by 10 billion tons before 2055 to “protect public health.” In turn, 67% of new personal vehicles will be electric by 2032. The average price of an electric vehicle (EV) is $64,338 and completely out of reach for the average American consumer.”
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From OilPrice News: Biden Approves Exports From Planned Alaska LNG Project.
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The Economics Behind Europe’s Energy Rebound.
Inflation Watch:
ECB’s Lagarde Says Underlying Inflation Pressures Remain Strong.
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IMF / World Economic Outlook April 2023 Update. A quote:
“Global headline inflation is set to fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% in 2023 on the back of lower commodity prices but underlying core inflation is proving to be stickier. Importantly, this outlook assumes that recent financial stresses remain contained,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s Chief Economist.”
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New York Fed: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Increase; Credit Access Perceptions and Expectations Deteriorate.
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South Africa February inflation higher than forecast as power cuts bite.
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Rising cost of living in the UK.
Forex & Cryptos:
Yellen says US banks may tighten lending and negate need for more rate hikes.
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At Currency Thoughts: Investors Sensing the Beginning of the End of the Cycle of Rising Central Bank Interest Rates.
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Dollar bounces off one-year low, weak retail sales not as bad as feared.
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H.L. sent us this: Financial System Is DONE, Nothing Left: Fed Will Now Fast-Track CBDCs.
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Euro Gains 0.79% to $1.0994 — Data Talk.
Tangibles Investing:
Fortune reports: Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate.
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Why a Housing Market Crash May Be Closer Than You Think.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!