Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at some expatriation and offshore banking options, legalities, and statistics.
Precious Metals:
Arkadiusz Sieroń: New POTUS, New Gold Bull Market?
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Why was silver targeted? Analysts point to a price move in silver
Economy & Finance:
Showing his socialist true colors: Mitt Romney has a plan to give parents up to $15,000 a year. (Thanks to blog reader C.B. for the link.)
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At Wolf Street: Three Months of No Jobs Growth, Labor Force Drops to July Level
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At Zero Hedge: Who’s Hiring And Who’s Firing: Government Accounted For 88% Of All January Job Gains. JWR’s Comment: Just wait until the Congresscritters come to the full realization that their National Gaurd security blanket over the U.S. Capitol will disappear in March. My prediction: Congress will vote special appropriations to vastly expand the ranks of the Capitol Police Force, and militarize it. They will also erect huge permanent barriers around the Capitol building complex and the outlying capitol offices — namely the Russell, Dirksen, Rayburn, Longworth, Cannon, O’Neill, and Hart office buildings.) And they will close off public streets to create significantly larger “security” setbacks–even buying up privately owned homes and buildings via Eminent Domain. Count on it!
Commodities:
THE RESISTANCE: North Dakota Legislators Plan To Nullify Biden’s Executive Orders At State Level. JWR’s Comment: They rightly see the Keystone XL Pipeline termination as a slap in the face, by the Federales.
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OilPrice News reports: U.S. Rig Count Jumps Amid Rising Oil Prices
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Ford boosts investment in electric and autonomous vehicles to $29 billion through 2025
Equities:
John Hussman: Is the Market Still Overvalued? Here is a quote:
“Points of ‘secular’ undervaluation such as 1922, 1932, 1949, 1974 and 1982 typically occurred about 50% below historical mean valuations, and were associated with subsequent 10-year nominal total returns approaching 20% annually. By contrast, valuations similar to 1929, 1965, and 2000 were followed by weak or negative total returns over the following decade. That’s the range where we find ourselves today. Of course, we also won’t be surprised if the S&P 500 ends up posting weak or negative total returns in the 2007-2017 decade, which would require nothing but a run-of-the-mill bear market over the next couple of years.”
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For those who’ve been following the Gamestop anti-shorting news: rWallSreetBets mod claims that the sub is being hijacked for profit
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The Curious Case Of The Hedge Fund That Made $700 Million On GameStop
Expatriation:
2020 Sets New Record For Published Expatriates
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Most American Expats Who Wanted Out Chose One Of These Destinations
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The Best Offshore Banks for 2021
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Ten Countries With The Easiest Gun Laws In The World
Tangibles Investing:
The Truth Behind The Great Ammo Crisis
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Best AR-15 Lower Receivers [2021]: Budget to Baller
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!
With respect to precious metals prices, they probably won’t see significant increases until the Fed loses control of the debt crisis and interest rates. That probably won’t happen for a while, at least a year and maybe two. In the mean time, stock prices may well go up another 50-100%. It’s 1929 and 1999 all over again, folks, and there’s money to be made and danger to be avoided. As long as there’s music playing, I want to keep dancing, but I sure as hell want to dance near the door! I don’t want to dance with the devil, either.
In other words, stock investors should make sure they have an exit strategy, whether it’s selling at predetermined profit points on the way up, hedging with shorts, options, or inverse etf’s, or using out of the market trailing stops (my favorite).
One more point — although broad index funds like those tracking the S&P500have become very popular — deservedly so, for their low costs and good performance, I strongly suggest getting out of them. They have become a significant part of the market. When things start to go south, everyone will try to exit. The funds keep a small amount of cash on hand for redemptions. Once they go through that, they have to start selling the securities in the funds.
The top, say, 200 stocks in the S&P500 index will be easy to sell, but the rest — not so much. I can easily see index funds suspending redemptions until they can make them in an orderly way — which would ensure very low share values at the actual sale.
Remember too that there are 50% fewer publicly traded securities than there were 20 years ago. There’s lots more money chasing a smaller number of stocks. All in all, I believe it’s lots safer to stay out of the broad-based index funds altogether, and even the etf’s that are index-based (which is most of them). Stick with individual stocks — they will be easier to sell as things go south.
Set your exit strategy now and stick with it — you’ll be happier later!
Returning to precious metals, I believe we’ll see a very choppy market for the next year or two, and you should use the downturns to accumulate more — focus on particular coins, bars, etc. that you believe will be the easiest to sell — but keep buying. It’s not an investment — it’s an insurance policy.
Last fall and into late year I tried holding puts of various shapes and sizes on the s&p because surely a correction would come. Eventually I gave up since they all lost. Now I’m holding a basket of gold and silver miners, mostly explorers and cash. Congrats on the staying in for some ‘dancing’ . I just can’t. It’s nerve wracking.
Steve — if you want to do some investing but have an exit strategy that helps you sleep at night, try using out-of-the-market trailing stops. The idea is that you sell when any stock you own closes down at or beyond a predetermined percentage from its previous high point.
How do you know when this happens? You could put your stops in the brokerage firm’s computers, which makes it seem easy but is a terrible idea. Or you could put your purchases on a website like tradestops.com (I use it but have no financial relationship with them). You can use the stop they calculate based on the individual security’s previous volatility or choose your own. If any holding you’ve listed closes (not just an intraday move) at or below your stop, you’re texted and emailed right away. You can look at the situation, decide what you want to do, but the right thing is to sell at the open the next trading day. This provides a discipline and can make your life much easier. You’ll pay for the site but it’s not bad. Just a suggestion.
Congress will not only establish a permanent “green zone” in DC they will do so with living quarters as well one day. They will cite the attacks on their homes, vandalism, protests and recent suicide as security needs. You’ll have little mini green zones across Amerika
Plus they apparently need to protect themselves from the near constant mortar attacks in their green zones that they, in their delusional state, believe are happening…….. I imagine sadly that the rest of the world is seeing a military coup led by the democrats instead of the peaceful transfer of power within a democracy.
Welcome to the Fourth Reich! Heil Biden!
Next we’ll all have to wear stars, crosses, and R’s!
Then it’s off to the camps!
Good, keep them all in one place.
Glad to see ND joining the party against king biden
I’m happy as well that ND joined the party, along with Florida and numerous others states at least thinking of it, I can’t remember them right now. Believe Mt, Id, Wy, Sd won’t be far behind.
As to your earlier statement about mini green zones in the district of cartoonistan, and eventually building living quarters, that would be well and good cause then they’ll all be in one place 24/7, gated off from the rest of responsible Americans and already behind a security fence. We could call it Gitmo El Norte. Since they haven’t got a clue how anyone would get lectric planes to fly and there ain’t enough batts to power boats for any distance. Course if they got stranded mid ocean that would work out equally as well don’t cha think!
In related firearms news Colt has apparently been bought out by a Czech company called CZG…… https://apnews.com/article/business-czech-republic-canada-united-states-65b7b6cc67aa1d4eae6b728471862373
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/–AGtWjzMl0U/YCZd1JXpiSI/AAAAAAAArbk/-lWa0rfntycUpoZFIgpf89PMh6s10bUUACPcBGAsYHg/s550/Fenix%2B1.png
(The United States of America is the best/easiest place in the world to own guns. Period.
It’s the only place you can get a gun at a Walmart. In fact, only 13 states require a background check.)
Sorry can’t read an article when the author’s opening statement is blatantly false. 13 states have universal background checks but all require federal checks when buying at “Walmart”. Sounds like it’s written by a liberal distorting the facts.
I think they meant in 37 states you can buy a gun at Walmart and walk out the door with it. In the other 13 there is a waiting period before you can take it home.
More proof- Senator Marco Rubio Introduces Bill to Suspend Gun Rights of Anyone Who Has Ever Been “Investigated” for Domestic Terrorism
Republican lawmaker Marco Rubio has reintroduced legislation that seeks to suspend the Second Amendment rights of any person who has been investigated for “terrorism” related offenses within 10 years of attempting a gun purchase.
https://ogdaa.blogspot.com/
Mr. Rubio needs to have someone explain “Due Process” to him.
King Biden? How about puppet Biden and Harris carefully orchestrated by the hidden director of domestic policy Susan Rice, the surrogate of King Ba-Rack I, who himself is the puppet of the Davos Group, which have total control of both major political parties and have had for the last hundred or more years. The best part of the Wizard of Oz is that it finally showed who was really running the show, not someone you saw, but someone who hid behind the curtain.
The populist made a run on the government at the end of the 19th century and were smashed. Trump tried to upset the apple cart with the support of half the country, and now they are smashing everything he tried again. Populism: rule by representatives of ordinary people will always be opposed by the elite, and there will always be enough sheeple wanting freebies to block it.
We became a country when the local elites decided that they were being exploited.
The writer of the lead article today had a major point, though they just touched on it.
While doing an economics project in college, I came across an old economic history book written by some Harvard professor who said that 40% of the slaves had already been emancipated by the start of the Civil War, and he estimated that all slaves would have been emancipated by the time he wrote the book in 1880. Look at what happened after the Civil War — The southern state were economically depressed while the Industrial Revolution took off and brought us the people who are part of the Davos Group now. They work to control us using racial hatred, which is a misnomer that I don’t have time to discuss now. Gaining control of our educational system, where they can brainwash our children, another topic for another time.
I spent most of my investment time building a portfolio of school and municipal bonds which are tax free (at the moment). This served two purposes: It gave me a sound conservative retirement supplement income, and it was a direct investment in building the infrastructure of our communities and country. The Fed ended that though when they dropped interest rates to zero and took all the returns out of them. Even treasury bonds, which are taxable will only earn you one percent or less, a return so low that a person can’t live on it. Now I have a balanced portfolio which is at severe risk.
The current strategy: Stay out of debt (I am debt free). Invest in tangibles that you can live on if the paper castle fails. Develop skills for more self sufficient living, and most important: Build a community of like minded people that you enjoy being around and associating with.
There is a lot of conversation — everywhere — about the lies that surround and even envelope people — individuals, households, communities, countries, the totality of human civilization.
Sometimes — from the outside looking in — we wonder what guides seemingly misguided decisions, and why decision makers may appear to be missing the truth that stands right before them, and stares directly into their eyes.
Deceit affects so many decisions, and the consequences are real. This is an important conversation related to all decisions. Initially I was thinking about recent conversations about a lack of true price discovery in the markets — financial or investment related markets, medical markets, etc.
My thoughts also turned to the deceit we’ve seen in election markets including fraud. The Gateway Pundit is reporting today that false information may have been inserted into the pro-Trump election win narrative to cause confusion, and perhaps to discredit the efforts to prove the truth. If this is true, it warrants attention and investigation.
Remember that lies are fundamental to deception.
I do believe the truth will prevail, although there will be massive casualties and collateral damage getting from where we are to the place of truth revealed.
Discernment is extraordinarily important.
“Sometimes — from the outside looking in — we wonder what guides seemingly misguided decisions, and why decision makers may appear to be missing the truth that stands right before them, and stares directly into their eyes.”
Hey T of A, if you really want the answer to that question then I recommend you read The Science of Fear by Dan Gardner. If it isn’t one of the 5 most informative and fascinating books you’ve read in the past five years, I’ll refund your money. Its a fun read and very informative about why humans do what we do and how politicians and marketers take advantage of that to manipulate all of us in ways we don’t even suspect.
Your comment not only applies to decision makers, but to all of us. The reasons why are fascinating. And no, truth doesn’t usually prevail because we don’t want it to, as explained in the book.
https://www.booksamillion.com/p/Science-Fear/Daniel-Gardner/9780452295469
Used sources:
https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-science-of-fear-why-we-fear-the-things-we-shouldnt–and-put-ourselves-in-greater-danger_dan-gardner/276177/item/3639938/?mkwid=7iRpvLeX%7cdc&pcrid=11558858262&pkw=&pmt=be&slid=&product=3639938&plc=&pgrid=3970769336&ptaid=pla-1101002859890&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Bing+Shopping+%7c+Business+&+Investing&utm_term=&utm_content=7iRpvLeX%7cdc%7cpcrid%7c11558858262%7cpkw%7c%7cpmt%7cbe%7cproduct%7c3639938%7cslid%7c%7cpgrid%7c3970769336%7cptaid%7cpla-1101002859890%7c&msclkid=dbb536e10ba215c3654a56c613adb0ff#idiq=3639938&edition=4810252
Mitt Romney, Rhino extraordinaire. Hey, dumb dumb In Ca we already spend over $12,000 per student per year. Now add in all the free goodies, lunches, welfare payments for rent, food stamps, free medical care, Etc. Your idea would be a cut in pay. When are they going to get rid of this guy?
I often wonder the same…
Interesting news reported at The National Pulse in light of the above…
https://thenationalpulse.com/news/revealed-lincoln-project-donors-include-romneys-bain-capital-ccp-linked-secquioa/
Given the penchant for everything-investigation, perhaps one or more inquiries are due here?
I have recently learned that they are all the same in Washington DC- the same as Mittens the Kitten Romney. All traitors except maybe about 3 out of (435+100+2+9+thousands).
Related to the earlier post and reference to casualties… One needs only to look at the devastation following the collapse of markets in 2008. Many people lost everything, and have been rebuilding ever since. More recently we have seen devastation in the form of a pandemic, and all the consequences that have flowed forth from it. Most recently we are seeing unfold before us the devastation of election fraud.
My great concern is that the devastation unfolding before us is just beginning. Many will suffer for the entirety of this current cluster of disasters, and more seem likely to follow. The most immediate of these will be those who suffer financial hardship and loss — this is, in my view, the greatest and most immediate risk.
Steady yourselves. Make solid the foundations of your lives. Prepare yourselves to ride out the possibility of tough times ahead.
Thank you for the great article!
Random thoughts:
It’s good to see someone point out that Southern slavery wasn’t the primary reason for the civil war. The South was utterly devastated by the Northern aggressors. There had to be another way if the issue was slavery, but it wasn’t.
Also true, America was one of the few countries in the world that outlawed slavery. It still exists in many countries. Sadly, children are taught the opposite. Follow the money!! As much as everyone hails Lincoln, I have my misgivings due to the horrible loss of life that occurred.
Re: expats and places to live – my money is still on America as being the best place to live, as long as you choose the community wisely, and far enough away from a big city. Whatever “enough” is.
On another note, I took advantage of the huge discount for 2 years of NordVPN. Still struggling with getting the encryption keys sorted out, LOL, and to think I used to do this for a living! I’ll have to read the instructions this time.
Sara Sue: You got that right, the war of northern aggression was not about slavery. Neither was the war for southern independence. It was mainly about taxes and northern financial domination of the south. There is a reason that actual history is no longer taught in schools, the truth negates the narrative. To the ruling class it is always about the narrative. The Lincoln myth is all about the cult of “Father Abraham”. This is truly a sad, even sick, state of affairs.
Charles K. … very well stated and soooo true
Hey SaraSue,
As a follow up to what you’re saying about slavery, if the Civil was was over slavery then the Emancipation Proclamation would have been issued before the war started or soon thereafter, not halfway through. Another bogus idea we were taught in school is that the Emancipation Proclamation freed the slaves. Hogwash. Here’s a map showing which slaves the EP freed, only those in southern states, not the 500,000 in Union states. So technically, not many slaves were actually freed by it. Lincoln had no power over the southern stages so not many of those slaves were freed, and none were freed in Union States.
https://hankeringforhistory.com/emancipation-proclamation/
Note how the spread between Gold and Platinum has narrowed significantly in past several months — JWR’s suggestion to look at platinum several months ago looks good.
In October, Platinum was $850 — it’s now $1250. Gold was $1900 in October — it’s now $1820.
Buy Sheep and Sell Deer.
Watching the President Trump’s Defense Team destroy the prosecution today on Newsmax dot com tv’s livestream. It’s a clinic on exposing the lies of the Left. If you missed it you can probably catch the video podcast there, or at RSBN, or OANN afterwards.
As always, hoping we all…
Seymour Liberty
Many years ago, I read a book that predicted that our government in Washington would become more cut off from the people, not daring to face the people. Only occasionally coming of their fortress and only with armed guards. It looks like the prediction is coming true. And now, they no longer need to campaign to be elected or re-elected, they just pay the right people to run the sham elections in their favor so they no longer fear the wrath of the voters if they go against the wishes of the citizens. Now they are free to do what they want, to enrich themselves, to disarm us, and to impose their insane socialist totalitarian authoritarian police state. The Fourth Reich, Soviet States of America, or the American Cultural Revolution. Take your pick what to call it- we are in it. And we will not be able to VOTE our way out of it.
re:
gearing-up my campaign for Our! Next! Glorious! Leader!
I admit it.
I am torn.
Should I support up-n-comer maxine ‘moving boxes’ waters… or go with perennial favorite hank ‘capsize Guam’ johnson?
After Glorious Leader china joe gives his all during his Full Eight Years© of a terrifyingly-astute prez term, I believe we need a fresh new face for Glorious Leader Of The Free World:
* somebody with a penchant for instantly assessing quick-changing world events
* somebody with honed skills at the negotiating table
* somebody ‘not afraid to address the tough issues’
* somebody with the ability to keep ‘the longer view’ in mind
* somebody with the inner strength to force opponents to ‘toe the line’
In short, our next Glorious Leader must combine the ‘triple punch’ of the many wondrous accomplishments of prez joe with the worldly knowledge of First Son hunter biden and the medical skills of First Woman Doctor jill biden!
I know, I know.
Commander-In-Chief china joe will be a tough act to follow.
But I believe, if we wish hard enough, ‘moving boxes’ and ‘capsize Guam’ are looking mighty good!
And each possesses the necessary prez skills to bring us into A New Vision Of America©!
What say, Americans?
Can we do it?
I honestly truly believe, with the guidance of the Ukrainians and Persians and Rooskies and chinese and somebody in Venezuela (among others), we can Build A Better Tomorrow©!
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That is… if you believe we can vote our way out of this.
Which, according to some, got us here in the first place.
[ despite a concerted campaign of rumors to the contrary, there seems to be no immediately identifiable correlation between ‘prez’ and ‘Pez© dispensers’ ]
[ but I am the first to admit I could be wrong ]
re: Truth behind the Ammo Crisis
It seems reasonable that the increase in gun buying would deplete the ammo supply, but…
At least in my neck of the woods, the only ammo that seems to come in on a regular basis is russian made… so THEY are obviously keeping up with the demand better than domestic manufacturers.
Their prices haven’t increased that much either. A box of 40 rounds of 7.62×39 (Tula) would cost about $10 last year. 40 rounds (Wolf) will run about $16 now. That’s an increase of 25 to 40 cents a round.
By comparison, checking ammoseek, steel cased .223 is currently about 70 cents a round. Remanufactured brass cased will run about 85 cents rnd. Some Federal or Winchester is over $1.65 a round. From what I recall, I think I saw .223 for as low as 24 cents a round last year.
As a reloader, what really bothers me is the lack of primers. My perennial fear is, the ammo industry is an extremely vulnerable manufacturing bottle neck which could be easily choked off by a doddering president advised by some very clever lawyers. I believe they could cut off or severely curtail the supply to civilian markets with a “phone and a pen” (to quote Barrack). Thus, back door disarmament through lack of ammo.
I would strongly advise everyone to download a pdf copy of “Homemade Primer Course” by W. Marshall Thompson, PhD. Getting the basic chemical components is still problematic, but even if you can’t use the information, some friend or family member in the future may thank you.
Just caught a rebroadcast from Glen Beck interviewing Bill Oreilly:
Apparently gun control groups came out of whitehouse meeting “happy”…
According to an un-named source Bill cited, the strategy will be to cut off the supply of foreign Ammo.
(It was unclear whether they meant ammo per se (russian ammo) or foreign powder manufacturers, or both.)
Off topic but…
the photo above the “Economics & Investing For Preppers” title immediately caught my eye. This was a view from a remote island (Ko Khao Phing Kan Island, Thailand), in the James Bond movie The Man With the Golden Gun (December 1974).