Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at an anticipated price swing in vintage Rolex wristwatches. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Targets $1700 In September.  JWR’s Comment:  Take advantage of this dip. And note that there is still an opportunity to advantageously ratio trade some of your gold into silver and/or platinum.

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With some charts, Hub Moolman illustrates how we are still early in a silver bull market: Get the big prize for silver

Economy & Finance:

Over at The HillUS budget deficit hits record $3 trillion: CBO

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By way of Whatfinger.com, here is a piece at the Gatestone site: China Threatens Total Economic War by Dumping Treasuries: Be My Guest

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At Wolf Street: The Fed Bought No Bond ETFs in August. ETF Holdings Actually Fell. Bought Almost No Corporate Bonds

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And, Unemployment Crisis Going in Wrong Direction: Week 25 of U.S. Labor Market Collapse

Commodities:

What Possible Disruption Is Coming That Requires China To Start Massive Stockpiling Of All Possible Commodities. JWR’s Comment The great unspoken here is that commodities stockpiling is also apropos in anticipation of a major war. One key precedent: Japan stockpiling scrap iron and steel from all over the world, in the midst of the global economic depression of the 1930s.  Or perhaps the Chinese are now simply distrustful of most currencies and feel safer piling up tangibles. Only time will tell.

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Chinese Farmers Hoard Wheat In Hopes Of Creating Shortages That Push Prices Higher

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OilPrice News reports: Oil Prices Crash On Weak Demand

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Decades-old mystery of lithium-ion battery storage solved

Equities:

Heather Boushey, at The Washington Post: The stock market is detached from economic reality. A reckoning is coming

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Market Crash 2020: It Could All Come Crashing Down in September

Forex & Cryptos:

British Pound-to-Dollar stability?  Here is one set of predictions.

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As Dollar Hits 12-year Low Against the Shekel, Analysts Are Divided on What’s Next

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How China Is Closing In on Its Own Digital Currency

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The Number of Bitcoin “Wholecoiners” Just Hit a Fresh All-Time High

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Telegram (TON) To Return $1.2B From Failed Crypto, Will Investors Get a Refund?

Tangibles Investing:

Secondary-Market ‘Rolex Bubble’ At Risk Of Imploding, Top Watch Trader Warns

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The big three-day Rock Island Auction Company (RIAC) premier auction just ended on Sunday, September 13th. They sold 6,700 guns in more than 3,500 lots. Based on the furious bidding and some quite high hammer prices, it is clear that the prices for antique guns are firm, especially at the low end. There were a few $100,000+ items that sold below their estimates. I attribute this to millionaires hoarding their cash in anticipation of economic turmoil. But the cartridge rifles and revolvers under $5,000 saw very strong bidding. Part of the interest in auctions stems from the dearth of gun shows, for the past six months. With the majority of gun shows canceled, the auctions are the proverbial “only game in town”  for antique guns.

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There were a whopping 3.1 million FBI NICS checks in August. That was up from 2.36 million in August of 2019. I don’t expect the frantic gun and ammo buying to slow until at least mid-November. Oh, and if DJT is re-elected, there will probably be more riots in the cities, so the gun buying likely won’t abate, either way.  (A hat tip to C.B. for the link.)

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




37 Comments

  1. Remember that California and other states to follow have enacted FBI background checks for ammunition sales. That is also driving up numbers. It’s not all gun sales those checks are for.

  2. At the Kalispell, Montana gun show, there was one MAC90 AKM advertised for $1,400.00. Ammo prices were similar to on line prices. If Trump can’t get the country under control with the Insurrection Act, I can’t imagine were prices will go once the unprepared become realistic and panic. I’m still helping friends get the basics covered. Unfortunately they still do not have their priorities straight. This is an indication that they have not yet acquired a warrior’s mindset. They are neither fully prepared mentally or physically, and would rather spend thousands on comfort items rather than prepare for the nasty business of self defense with both hands.

    Hopefully Trump, surrounded by traitors, can actually invoke the Insurrection Act. Here is some interesting speculation, or ‘food for thought’ from Mike Adams. He boldly goes where few dare. I would not count on Trump being able saving the country as it is, or all by preventing CW2.

    http://brighteon.com/b7c20a63-9d25-43f1-8679-5785f0e7237e

    1. I too was at the Kalispell show for all three days. I found some good deals by carefully searching (mainly reloading components). I did see a few deals that I was surprised didn’t sell. I saw one CAI AK for $850 that never sold, many AR’s in the $700 range that didn’t sell by the end. I too think that their are a lot of people that are still in denial about what could be in our future. I constantly debate with myself if I should sell my excess yet or what a bit longer. I feel that there is a real possibility of things to get much worse.

  3. JWR… It’s a chilling thought, but one we must consider. Your warning about moves by China to stockpile are much appreciated. We have had the same thoughts here as we have run scenarios related this very news report.

  4. On a separate note… This video tells the story of the robbery and looting of a package delivery truck. It’s troubling for all kinds of reasons which come to mind immediately from safety and security to the sociological and cultural. We should also remember that there are economic implications that go far beyond the theft of any particular package and whether or not insurance will intervene to mitigate the losses of business people. Economists know that when people adjust behaviors, economic adjustments follow. It’s reasonable to believe that criminal conduct like this will have far reaching effects — some acute, others longer term and more chronic.

    https://audio.nationalvanguard.com/swarm.mp4

      1. RioShooter! A good point…and Wwes may be onto something as well! We may be seeing shotgun riders again soon. At some point, enough will be enough. Merchants and delivery services will discover that by making themselves easy targets, they will be easily targeted. Expect the looting to continue until the consequences to the looters change dramatically.

    1. In my business I do a fair amount of shipping and receiving and I can testify that some strange things are happening in the shipping world. Packages not showing up, items missing, delivery taking way longer then normal. I won’t bore you with lots of stories but I would say some of the missing/damaged goods are inside jobs.

    1. I have one of those type watches (G-shock – I call them sport watches, some call them ‘active lifestyle’ watches, lol!). I really like mine and wear it sometimes. Never saw the need for those big super expensive boat anchor wrist status symbol watches like Rolex’s (no offense to anyone who owns or likes them). I guess if I had Millions of extra money to play with – nah, still wouldn’t do it. Spent too much time with Depression Era Grandparents and Great Grandparents.

      Haven’t bought a watch in 20 yrs or so. Still have several Seiko quartz dressy watches that I wear for dressy events like meetings, weddings, funerals, etc, but don’t see the need for dressy stuff much anymore. With a cell phone I always have a clock handy.

      I also keep a couple of manual hand-wind watches that have sentimental value: a Timex wrist watch that belonged to my Grandfather who died in ’83, and an Elgin pocket watch that belonged to my Uncle who passed in ’99. They both run like champs and keep accurate time. I don’t wear them, but wouldn’t think of getting rid of them. Both have a sweep second hand in case I need to time something or take a pulse. Handy if the word goes totally haywire! I imagine someday they’ll be my Grandson’s watches.

      1. Some Brits grumbled when Bill Clinton wore his usual Timex Ironman watch during a black tie meeting with the Queen. But when you command several thousand nuclear warheads, you can wear whatever you want.

        Plus I saw Bill speak on two occasions — and he was 2 hours late on each occasion, as was his custom. So I don’t understand why he needed quartz accuracy.

      1. My G-shock is roughly 10 years old — it is easy to replace the battery and reboot the watch after doing so.

        You can set a G-shock and tell the precise time to within 4 seconds almost 2 months later — they gain time but consistently so if the temperature is kept roughly constant (i,e watch is on the wrist all the time or off the wrist all the time — but not swapped back and forth.)

        This accuracy is useful for celestial navigation of a sailboat — every 4 seconds error in time results in 1 nautical mile error in position.

        Mechanical watches allegedly can be adjusted to only gain 5 seconds per DAY (versus the 20 seconds per month of the G-Shock) but mechanical watches can easily gain 20 seconds a day if subjected to minor shocks.
        After a week, it is hard tell if they are within 1 minute of true time.

        There are other reasons to have the precise time — a brush pass exchange with a spy, for example. Done in the 3-4 second time window when you both are out of sight of possible surveillance teams.

        Plus if you take 3 photographs of a satellite passing overhead against the star background and note the precise times you can calculate the 6 orbital elements and determine the satellite’s location stretching into the future (so long as it does not fire any rockets or descend to where the atmosphere slows it.)

        The G-Shock’s LCD display makes it invulnerable to Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) /Carrington Event — quartz watches with analog hands can have their stepper motors disabled by such a pulse.

        Mechanical watches are vulnerable to magnetism also unless they have a copper ring installed in the case a la the Cabot Watch Company (CWC) military watch of the Brits. However, I think the Europeans had ISO add some magnetic resistance standards to their watch standard –probably because they know the greater vulnerability of quartz watches that have analog hands and the magnetic standard would give an advantage to mechanical watches. Preserving an obsolete technology a little longer.

  5. War is a coming, next week, next year, or 5 at the most a CIVIL WAR, this country is broke. I love this country but half the people do not love this country. Everything is made backwards and they sell it as straight forward. It like bad movie. I can’t even watch professional cry baby football anymore. Unbelievable.

    1. Umm,

      Turkey and Greece are squaring off in the Med. India and Pakistan are threatening each other. China is threatening India. The USA and China are squaring off in the South China Sea. Israel and Iran are about to go to war, maybe, even over the Jewish Holidays which begin on Friday/Saturday. And of course, stuff is heating up here in the States.

      Pray!

      1. Avalanche Lily… The world is presently an unstable and dangerous place. This makes it more important that we remain steady-steady-steady. We can do this especially well when we spend time with the Good and Loving Lord in PRAYER. You are so right!

      2. Turkey and Greece are squaring off in the Med. India and Pakistan are threatening each other. China is threatening India.

        Nothing new, it´s not business as usual but not that unusual either

      3. @AL

        And Israel is officially entering into relationships with several more Arab Moslem countries who have decided it’s far better for their own interests to be at peace with Israel and utilize their strengths. The more that this happens, the more Iran will be left outside and marginalized. Many ME countries would much rather team up with Israel(some already do so quietly such as SA) than with Iran which they recognize is dangerous to them and the region. So some good things are happening as well, precious few, but we need to recognize the good things too.

    2. WW- you are correct. THIS is BAD !
      NOT FOR CHILDREN:
      https://www.wnd.com/2020/09/black-lives-matter-protesters-chant-f-jesus/
      I am shocked. I lived in the Charlotte area, and always felt that that area was one of the most Christ-loving places where I have ever been. I lived there about 30 years ago and felt like the people there were strongly resisting the forces of evil that were taking over the rest of the country. And the races got along well too. It is heartbreaking to see how far from that they are now.

  6. Regarding expensive guns not selling well because the wealthy are hoarding cash, I believe it. We ran into something similar.

    We have been interviewing Realtors as we sell our suburban house and make the move fulltime to our prepper property. She mentioned that even buyers who can afford to pay cash are getting mortgages becuase they are hoarding cash.

    The smart money is telling us something. If they are worried, the rest of us sure should be.

    1. Pete the Pickled Prepper: Anyone that reads and understands U.S. Senate Bill 3571 titled
      Banking For All Act will soon be holding worthless paper if they are hoarding cash for any
      reason.
      The smart money is holding as much gold as possible. Maybe a little fiat currency to pay the
      property taxes.
      I’m no expert but I listen to people who are. Warren Buffett for instance

      1. Warren buffet is a fool. He has bragged that he and his family have given over one billion dollars to promoting abortion. His time is coming soon when his empire will crumble. Maybe it will happen after he dies. He is 90 years old. In my opinion, if you try to emulate him you will lose your investments. We avoid buying from the companies that his company owns. This includes Kraft foods, Heinz and Coca-cola. I gave up some of my favorite products but I will not support abortion. I believe that just as China is being punished for its official atheism and human rights abuses with floods and crop failures, Buffet’s company will be punished and lose many billions of dollars. You may believe otherwise but this is my opinion.
        Also Nabisco has recently given $ to burn, loot and murder so no more Oreos or Ritz crackers for me and mine.

  7. Well I cracked a smile. There is no argument a G-shock is fine time instrument. However, one may have missed the point if confused about the differences between a Casio and a Rolex. Within a tangibles Investing mindset, a watch is not only a symbol to wear, but an object of wealth that that is easily transferable, portable, and recognized the world over. One tells time and one is a transfer of wealth.

    When traveling internationally, would you carry 20,000 cash in USD either ‘declared’ or ‘undeclared’ across a customs inspection? Would you feel differently if you wore a watch across that same theft point?

    Trivia:
    When reading a book from author/investor Jim Rogers, he tells the story of when he drove around the world in a Mercedes because every continent, sans antarctica, has a Mercedes dealership.

    1. Gold coins can be hid in a belt and dollars can be sewed inside coat or luggage linings. Both I think are preferable to wrist candy that says “Rob Me” to corrupt border guards. In more civilized areas, what’s wrong with a credit card? Try getting an ATM to give you cash for a Rolex.

  8. I bet the folks at Atlas Shelters are busy. Wish I had $ for a bomb shelter…. but the local caverns will have to suffice. Problem is I’m sure plenty of other folks have the same idea. Hope they BOYF (bring your own food).

  9. Could the China stockpiling have anything to do with the horrific Biblical flooding they’ve been having all summer? Here’s a small sample of what’s been going on since June. They’re having more flooding this week too. Considering that the Yangtze river is over 3,500 miles long and pretty much most of that watershed (along with the Yellow River watershed) has been affected, I’d say they’re in a world of hurt right now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a42-v-hj4qM

  10. re:
    jewelry, fancy watches, foreign hotrods

    “Follow me home, rob me!”

    I think calories and security is a better idea for me.

    *****

    re:
    the international situation is still desperate

    Probably.

    *****

    re:
    delivery trucks

    Drive away.
    A guard ‘riding shotgun’, well, that job doesn’t pay enough.
    Expect attrition from bribes and threats to family.

    *****

    Every response is ‘playing catch-up’, similar to a military preparing for the war of decades ago.
    Who predicted 2020 with the psych war of TheMainStreamMedia and Fauci and their constantly moving ‘finish line’?
    Who predicted the ‘force multiplier’ of hundreds of simultaneous forest fires?
    Who predicted the bombing of the centralized food supply for the Lebanese people?

    A song from a half-century ago predicted these events:
    “We ain’t seen nothing yet…”

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