Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the prospects for both a Dollar collapse and a global economic collapse. (See the Economy & Finance section and the Forex & Cryptos section.)

Precious Metals:

Commerzbank: Gold-price declines still used as ‘buying opportunities’

o  o  o

Craig Hemke: Waiting on COMEX Silver

Economy & Finance:

IMF says global economic collapse caused by coronavirus will be even worse than feared. This article’s opening lines:

“The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday painted a bleak portrait of the global economy, saying the coronavirus pandemic has caused more widespread damage than expected and will be followed by a sluggish recovery.

The global economy will shrink this year by 4.9%, worse than the 3% decline predicted in April, the IMF said.

No major economy is escaping the pandemic. The U.S. economy, the world’s largest, is expected to shrink this year by 8%. Countries that use the single European currency are headed for a decline of more than 10% while Japanese output will fall by 5.8%, the IMF said.”

o  o  o

At Zero Hedge: As Yields Approach The Zero Bound – There Is Nowhere To Hide

o  o  o

Egon: The Can is Too Big For The Fed & ECB to Kick

o  o  o

At WND: U.S. banks suddenly ‘swimming in money’

Commodities:

Oil Markets Are Right To Be Nervous Of A Second-Wave

o  o  o

OilPrice News reports: Natural Gas Drops To 25-Year Low As Demand Disintegrates

o  o  o

And over at Seeking Alpha: Iron ore maintains $100/ton but UBS says price ‘unsustainable’

Derivatives:

At USN&WR: EU Delays Greater Competition in Derivatives Market by a Year

o  o  o

First Mover: What’s Going On With Bitcoin Derivatives?

o  o  o

The latest tallies from the BIS: OTC derivatives outstanding

Forex & Cryptos:

By way of Whatfinger: The decline of the U.S. dollar could happen at ‘warp speed’ in the era of coronavirus, warns prominent economist Stephen Roach. Here is a snippet:

“‘In a COVID era everything unfolds at warp speed,’ Roach told MarketWatch on Monday. He pointed to the contraction of the U.S. economy from an employment rate that was hovering around a 50-year low at around 3.5% near the start of 2020 to one that shows some 49 million people unemployed since the pandemic took hold in March. He also noted the rapid and unprecedented fiscal and monetary response that has ballooned the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to more than $7.2 trillion from $4 trillion at the start of the year as examples of the celerity at which the currency market could change.”

o  o  o

Pound gains against euro but Brexit talks weigh

o  o  o

FX Traders Brace For The “Unthinkable”: An Election With No Clear Winner

o  o  o

Former US Treasury Head Calls Payment ‘Friction’ the Best Argument for Crypto

o  o  o

SEC Charges Lobbying Kingpin Jack Abramoff With Fraud For Promotion of 2018 ICO

o  o  o

The digital asset inflation hedge beyond gold

Tangibles Investing:

Classic Car Auctions Upended by Coronavirus.

o  o  o

Top 5 Most Expensive Firearms Sold in June 2020 Rock Island Premier Gun Auction

o  o  o

Progressive Justice: Retail Stores Sue to Escape from New York City (Bill Whittle.)

JWR’s Terse Summary:
Classic Cars? Down.
Guns? Up.
Urban Residential Real Estate? Peaking.
Urban Commercial Real Estate? Headed to the Dumpster.
Suburban and Rural Real Estate? Up.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




21 Comments

    1. Actually, they don’t need to run no printing presses — it was slowing things down. Plus Took too long to cut the trees and obtain the paper.

      Nowdays, they just need to type in some numbers into the FED Swift computer and Shazzam! we have another $1 Trillion in US dollars. A monkey could do it.

      Hmm. Maybe that explains some things.

        1. Yep. One reason for wanting people to accept debit cards instead of some paper to actually back the “Full Faith and Credit”. Forget about silver or gold –that ship sailed long ago.

          Actually, if I buy “collectibles” I plan to buy some coins from the ancient Roman Empire. Showing how the denarius went from almost pure silver in the early prosperous decades to a copper slug washed with some silver foil around the time of the Crisis of the Third Century.

          Rome almost collapsed at that point but the Emperor Constantine and his successors held things off for another century by agreeing to pay the Roman Army in a new gold coin called the solidus.

          One professor of history has speculated that Constantine converted to Christianity –and made it the state religion — because it let him deal with an economic collapse/ state bankruptcy and pay the Army by confiscating the massive wealth of pagan temples , built up over centuries.

          Hopefully, we won’t have a future Democrat President converting to Islam in order to seize the wealth of Christian churchs.

          Sometimes being poor — or at least outwardly so — is the best way of remaining free. If there is nothing significant for the Emperor to grab in your town then he tends to not waste expensive soldiers by occupying it.

          1. But Henry VIII did convert — to a religion headed by himself, not the prevalent version of Christianity.

            Actually, Constantine in practice did the same when he took over Christianity. He didn’t just convert — he ran the meetings of church leaders defining what was –and what was not– legitimate Christianity.

        2. Yes. Remember that banks no longer have to have any reserves. The Fed has only had one job since 1914- inflate the currency. Their job is nearly complete. When that happens, all currency will be worthless and real money will be the only store of value.

  1. I really loathe clicking on a link for the Failing New York Times or the Communist News Network. Please JWR, give us a heads up when by listing the source when you link to these fake news sources. I hate to give them click traffic. Thank you.

    1. Hope this helps… Before you click on the link, mouse over it, and you should be able to see the URL in the lower left corner of the screen. This may help you sort out which articles you want to view. In fact, this is a great step to take no matter what site you’re visiting or which links appear in your email. It will help you avoid being redirected to a spam or malware link!n

  2. What is happening in Portland, and in cities across the nation is the result of a Marxist mob action. It is not innocent. It is violent and very dangerous, for the people who have suffered at the hands of rioters and looters, and for everyone.

    https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2020/06/downtown-retailers-wonder-about-police-reaction-to-rioting-thieves-where-was-the-mayor.html

    It’s time to vote for Constitutional originalists, and leaders who believe in the rule of Constitutional law. Now is not the time to toss in the towel to fatigue. Now is the time to fight harder and more vigorously. Victory may be closer at hand than any of us could know right now, but defeat has not been removed from the realm of possibility. Do not fall back now, America.

    Leo Terrell gave an outstanding interview with Mark Levin yesterday evening. If you missed it, it’s worth listening to what he has to say — and the fact that people he’s known for many years are turning away from him because he is speaking the truth. Even so, he reminds us that he knows he is doing the right thing, that his conscience is clear, and that he can sleep well at night knowing this. We hope his voice will be heard by as many as it can reach.

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/leo-terrell-black-lives-matter-mark-levin

    1. Yes but understand that it required a Marxist/communist/Democrat to control the city first. The voters elected these jerks (well, in some cases voter fraud elected them). If they had a law and order mayor and city council this stuff wouldn’t be allowed.

    2. First of all, I would like all conservative talking heads to stop referring to these thugs as democratic socialists, socialists, far left, Marxists, etc… The should pound home the reality that these are COMMUNISTS and we should hear that term at all times until the citizens of this country understands what is happening and will CONTINUE to happen. And by thugs, I include so-called elected officials, judges and lawyers that enable them and/or refuse to prosecute. (You may have noticed that it is the police and conservatives that are being arrested even if they are defending themselves).

      We have reached the point that it will take aggressive physical action to drive these misfits back under their rocks. And the POTUS should issue an Executive Order that allows shop owners and good citizens the right to protect their property by any force necessary during these so called non-violent but very violent crimes.

      This will thin out the “little people” who think they are playing a little game and will shine the spotlight on the hardliners that want to continue this charade.

      It’s time they understand that they are now playing a man’s game.

      1. I share your deep and impassioned concerns. You make a very good point about sorting out the gamers from the hardliners, and this may be underway with the arrests of an increasing number of anarchists and agitators. The effort would go a long way to restoring law, order and civility.

        I also understand your thoughts about the use of the word “communist” over other terms to try to convey a message to the population broadly about who these people are and what they intend for all of us. I would only challenge this — in a limited way because I don’t entirely disagree, and I really do understand your point — that people who understand what Marxism is (and who Marxists are) are very, very alarmed by their activism in this country. Essentially, “Marxist” is not a soft term — and it’s not a term I use by virtue of its use by any others (including talking heads or pundits). It’s a term I use because I understand what it means, and the ways in which it defines the thugs who are attempting to take over our country — in my view by any means necessary.

        We have a lot of work ahead of us — between now and the election, and well beyond the election which I pray will be a 2nd term for President Trump. If Joe Biden is elected, he will serve as a Trojan horse, and deliver a devastating blow to the Republic.

  3. In the coming months when the financial/economic chaos becomes severe and unmanageable and the food shortages reach near famine levels those that bought collectibles or any big ticket item will wish that they had invested in life sustaining goods.

    A lot of food and a lot of security will be needed to have any chance of survival. If you have a deep larder keep adding to it. Make double sure that your Arsenal is in order.

    If what is coming was just a recession or a depression we would be lucky. It will be far worse.

    1. We’re living in very uncertain times, and the risk is great. In fact, that risk is made even greater by the Marxist anarchists and agitators around whom liberal Democrats are rallying. These people must not be allowed to retain political power in the next election cycle. They must be driven from influence, and relegated to the ash heap of history (never to be forgotten, and never allowed to rise again).

    1. I think that in the future we will see these same mask requirements and social distancing requirements mandated by governors for the regular flu season. Also I fully expect masks to be required for all commercial flights regardless of any known or unknown illnesses. Your kids will be required to wear a mask in schools. Workplaces will require masks if you cough or sneeze. Seriously and it will be enforced with fines too. Welcome to the new normal.

  4. The ridiculous notion that the economic collapse is caused by the virus needs to be challenged. The propagandists pushing the idea that somehow a virus can cause anything other than a disease want you to forget that it was politicians that caused the collapse. The virus didn’t force business to close- that was your elected officials.

  5. ~Warped is the correct description of the View
    While reading the intro to Mr. Roach’s article commenting on, “In a COVID era everything unfolds at warp speed” – this actually dawned on me. It is “The COVID era”! And “Warp Speed” does blur our days, but there is no cause and effect relationship between the two.
    There was a day past when our local lives were the universe of meaning. Same problems abounded, WE dealt with them locally.
    Our generation has witnessed the global mindset of Babeldom. The governing forces, the production and distribution of products, the global trade and travel – all are making the world our new form of local life. This connected world view makes warp speed “seem” the new norm; good or bad.
    What is missing in all this gooey “ONEness” is the one who created us, the one who wrote the book, the one who instituted the boundaries and gave us purpose. History will not be rewritten by those reaching for the sky – or desiring to build their own kingdom. LuvYerBro

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.