Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at investing in AR-15/M16 Magazines, as a hedge of future legislation. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Gold price is on a path to $1,700 but volatility will be high – analysts

o  o  o

Investment demand for gold outweighs weak consumer demand

Economy & Finance:

The bloodbath continues: Dow plummets more than 1,400 points, S&P 500 sinks 5% amid oil price war. JWR Asks:  So, will this be known as “Black Monday”, or “Black Monday Through Friday”?

o  o  o

File Under: I Told You So… US Airline Stocks Crushed. Southwest Warns on US Domestic Demand. UK Airline Collapses, Abandoned by Its Coronavirus-Spooked Owners

o  o  o

At Zero Hedge: Negative Rates In The US Are Virtually Guaranteed Now

o  o  o

The 10-Year US Treasury yield moved from 1.88% in January to 0.66% today. Here is the history of big quarterly changes in rates and the performance of the S&P 500.

o  o  o

Indian Government Nationalizes 4th Largest Bank As Shadow Banking Crisis Looms

o  o  o

And at Wolf Street: Stock Market Volatility Jangles Nerves. Something’s Afoot

Commodities:

“Doctor Copper” says:  The global economy has the flu.

o  o  o

OilPrice News reports: Short Positions In Oil Have Tripled Since Beginning Of The Year

Taxes:

At the TaxProf Blog: Details Of The Higher Taxes Proposed By Biden ($4 Trillion) And Sanders ($40 Trillion)

o  o  o

Coronavirus may kill a Utah tax cut

Forex & Cryptos:

Over at InvestmentWatchBlog: Something’s Up with the USD

o  o  o

Australian Dollar at Mercy of COVID-19 as China’s Economy Slows

o  o  o

Dirty banknotes may be spreading the coronavirus, WHO suggests

o  o  o

Crypto Tidbits: India Makes Watershed Ruling On Bitcoin, Elon Musk Bumps Dogecoin, Ethereum Founder Supports Twitter CEO

o  o  o

Expect Extreme Volatility as Bitcoin’s Consolidation Nears an End; Levels to Watch

Tangibles Investing:

My buddy Commander Zero (Editor of the Notes From The Bunker blog) wrote me to mention that Primary Arms is running a sale on D&H mil-spec AR-15/M16 magazines. They are just $6.99 each. I recommend stocking up on a few dozen of these, just as insurance against a bad outcome in the November 2020 election. (Some draconian legislation or an executive order could follow.)  Update: As of Monday morning (9/3/2020), they have sadly ended that sale.  So… Palmetto State Armory (one of our affiliate advertisers)–with frequent sales at $8.99 for D&H mil-spec magazines–is probably your best source. Just type “SKU 8416” in their search box

o  o  o

Our own Pat Cascio spotted this: Ammunition Sales Soar in Response to Coronavirus Panic. JWR’s Comment: Readers: Do you have a good stockpile of Ballistic Wampum? In a true crisis, the most precious metals are brass and lead.

o  o  o

Another from Pat Cascio, indicating that The Schumer Paper Has Hit The Fan: VIDEO: Coronavirus panic shoppers throw punches over toilet paper — another tasered!  Apparently, some tangibles are considered quite valuable, when they become scarce.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




38 Comments

    1. This speaks to the importance and value of preparing. Life should be lived on a rock solid foundation, and not on one where “just in time” is the primary building material. We may not be able to prepare for every possible contingency (we are subject at all times to what we call the Left Field Phenomenon), but we can come much closer as individuals, households, communities, societies, and as a human culture.

      Montana Guy makes a good point: “Just wait until they need FOOD!”

  1. Jim – when I just used your link to Primary Arms for the $6.99 D&H magazines, they’re not on sale presently or anymore. They’re $9.99, well, $8.79 with the 12% off code but not the $6.99. Just wanted to let you know.

  2. Also over at Zerohedge this morning:

    “Over the weekend, we saw the first signs of optimism out of South Korea, as the mayor of Daegu, the epicenter of the South Korean outbreak, reported a sharp drop in newly confirmed cases, evidence that the outbreak is slowing (since the South Koreans have been matched only by the Hong Kongers and Singaporeans in efficiency of testing), he said”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/markets-implode-coronavirus-cases-europe-us-explode-outbreak-slows-south-korea-live

    Once again, I would like to remind my fellow preppers, both new and experienced, to remain rational and balanced in your thinking and preparation. There may certainly be supply-chain disruptions and changes to your normal life in the coming months, especially if you are over the age of 60, but the “Captain Tripps” virus this is not.

    There are some of us who have worked for years to add legitimacy to the hobby and lifestyle that we love. We have worked to make preparedness a lifestyle everyone practices on a daily basis, not a knee-jerk reaction stoked by fear. The constant barrage of panic and profit-driven media reports do nothing to advance our cause.

    When this does not turn out to be a living version of “The Stand” by Stephen King, we will again be reminded that the hysteria propagated by those who wished to profit from this crisis only served to advance the agenda of those who want to diminish, and ultimately destroy, our way of life.

    Again, I urge everyone to make prepping decisions based on rational, logical thoughts and information, not on emotion, speculation, and unverifiable reports.

    1. High five, D.D. A few deep breaths now, everyone. The only folks who benefit from panic-driven behavior are those who want us in chains.

      We have the fortitude to weather this storm.

      Carry on

  3. Any reader thoughts on the suggestion that cases are “slowing” in South Korea?

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-cases-idUSKBN20V09A

    There might be some relief in believing that COVID-19 will pass quickly (and we pray that lives are spared), but we wonder if this represents the whole story. Are there enough test kits? What is the current test processing capacity? Is the South Korean healthcare system functioning optimally or is it faltering?

    We look forward to the thoughts and insights of the editors and other Survival Blog readers.

    1. Hey T of A, the same is true in China, they only reported 99 new cases on the 6th, 44 new cases on the 7th.

      That means they went from Patient Zero December 8th, to only 44 new cases yesterday, all within a 90-day period. I’m assuming those are 44 hospital cases that were tested and confirmed, not minor cases that just stayed home with their teddy bear and hot tea.

  4. The peak may be slowing in areas where the pandemic started, but in the US we’re just starting to ramp up. On one positive note, a school district superintendent in Washington State was truly forward thinking and prepared. She took a lot of heat when she closed schools for two days a few weeks ago to get teachers prepared to do online learning. Last week, she approached her staff for Food Services to get help with what to do for students who rely on the school for one or more meals each day. The food service staff really stepped up. This is how school districts nationally should get ready, especially helpful for parents who are unable to home school. See link

    https://www.nsd.org/northshorelearns/meals

    1. The NYT ran an article which said that the NYC public schools will be unable to shut down as too many kids would go without meals if they did(plus of course the childcare for parents issue). That’s kinda scary to me that the schools have taken on so much of what would normally be the responsibility of parents; to feed their children. And if medically the schools needed to close but they stayed open anyway……..

      1. This is a bad situation, of course. I posit that it is this way because all of the economic fat is almost gone. Mother and Father working because they have to is an example of the slack/fat being eliminated from the system. There is less and less backup, if you will, for basic needs. Your kids getting sick and having to be there for them is a basic need.

      2. Yet Mr. Bloomberg who sits on a fortune of $55 BILLION and spends millions on a wasted campaign for president doesn’t seem to have the extra cash to feed children in his hometown of NYC. What a shameless fraud.

        1. I find it incredibly ironic that Mr. Gun Grabber Bloomberg spent half a billion dollars on radio and television ads and failed to gather a single DNC delegate. Yet the mainstream media insists that Russia’s estimated $100,000 Facebook-influencing campaign allegedly “threw” the 2016 presidential election.

  5. It doesn’t appear that the stock market is interested in bouncing back today does it?
    All of the low interest rates,corporate stock buy backs,and Fed QE that’s not QE that have
    been able to prop up a grossly over valued market are working any longer.

    This will not turn out well for those holding worthless pieces of paper or fancy trinkets.

    This is the new reality.

  6. Mornin’ Every One,

    Stock market was down over 1900 points at opening this morning. At my last check was down 1800. Now 1300’s.

    We are in for a very volatile ride.

    I pray that you are all ready for what is coming to the best of your abilities.

    We are just in the beginning of the birth pains of the Tribulation. This is the great cosmic battle between Satan and God the Father, the creator of the Universe. It is heating up in earnest.

    This battle is going to get very much worse in the coming years. And will be characterized by even more pestilences, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, on the USA’s west coast, weather extremes, more devastating crop losses, economic collapse, famines and wars. Look for a totalitarian world government and a cashless society and persecution of Christians and Jews. The events will happen so fast in the very short coming days that we will not be able to recover from one to another.

    This battle is just going to get worse and worse. Satan hates Man and all of God’s creation and is trying to destroy it through men who have refused to believe in God and have rejected Him. If one rejects God’s Words, that one is automatically in Satan’s camp and works for Satan’s plans, knowingly or unknowingly. Satan wants God’s place and wants God’s creation to worship Him.

    I pray that you ALL will call upon the Lord God and repent of your own sins and for those of our country. (For ALL sin and fall short of the glory of God. There is none righteous, no not one. )

    Call on the name of the Lord Jesus, accept His FREE gift of Salvation. Jesus died and shed His blood for the atonement of our sins. Leviticus 17:11 says that the life of the flesh is in the blood and that God gave the blood for the atonement of our souls.

    Jesus was the supreme sacrifice. He died and was buried. On the third day, He was resurrected from the dead to life. All who confess their sins to Him and believe on Him and accept His blood sacrifice for their sins will be given eternal life with the Father God in Heaven.

    By believing on the works that Jesus has done, confessing your sins to Him, repenting of them to Him and accepting His blood, He will accept you and give you new Life/eternal Life. All who call on the name of the Lord Jesus and are saved will be resurrected from the dead and given eternal life.

    He is the Only way to Heaven. He says, “I am the way the truth and the life. NO ONE comes to the Father accept through me”

    Choose this day, whom you will serve.

    Pray Psalm 91 over yourselves and your loved ones.

    Trust in the Lord and ask Him to always supply all of your needs. If you trust in Him. He will supply all of your needs according to His riches.

    Thank Him for everything He has given you at this time.

    Pray, pray, pray. Repent for yourselves and those around you. Beg God for mercy and protection.

    READ His WORD, the Whole Bible (New and Old Testaments) for His wisdom and comfort and to know what is coming. The New Testament is concealed in the Old Testament. The New Testament reveals and completes/fullfills the Old Testament.

    Everything you need to know is in the Bible.

    Today if you seek Him with your whole heart, He will open up your mind to understand His word and the prophecies!! He is revealing the true meaning of the prophecies and giving understanding these days as He told the prophet Daniel that He would give understanding in the Last days.

    To get you started on Last Days Prophecy, Read:

    Daniel 6-9
    Zechariah 12-14
    Joel
    Isaiah 17
    Isaiah 24
    Ezekiel 38-39
    Matthew 24
    Luke 21
    Revelation

    To understand who Jesus is and His Love for you, read the book of John.

    To understand how Jesus fullfills/completes the Tanak/Old Testament read Matthew and then read Leviticus/vayikra and then the book of Hebrews.

    Jesus is the The Seven Feasts of the Lord. He is the Passover, the unleavened bread the first fruits, the Feast of Weeks, Our Trump, our Atonement and our Tabernacle!

    As you read, ask God continually, to give you discernment and understanding. He will.

    Be blessed in the Lord with the peace that ONLY He can give!

    Lily

      1. TR- I was wondering when you’d make your regularly scheduled appearance here today. Bummed- I just heard that Gov. DeWine announced first 3 cases of WuFlu in the buckeye state. Glad the Mrs and I have been filling holes in our preps for the last 6 weeks and also recently started seeds. Feeling pretty confident about our current ability to self quarantine if needed. Have seen some borderline panic shopping around town. Traveling for work this week and taking extra hygiene precautions. Common sense can go a long way these days.

    1. Lily, I love it when you have time to write. I love your zeal for the Lord that so easily comes through your writing, whether writing about life ever after or cold snowy nights in the forest. I agree with all that you just shared with us, and add my “Amen,” to the others’.

      1. Good Morning Krissy,

        A song/chant I like to sing and shout out. I’ve been singing it all morning since reading your post:

        “The zeal of God has consumed me, it burns within my soul, a driving force that cannot be stopped, a fire that cannot be quenched. Oh Hallelu hallelujah, hallelujah, Oh hallelu hallelujah halle halle halle-lujah, Haaaleeeee luuuu jahhhh!!” 😉

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3uTDTstJ6w

        Repeat repeat repeat!! Amen. 🙂

        I’ve been trying to write on something regarding prophesy of the days we are living it. But, there is so much to say that I’m having trouble organizing it. Pray for me, please!

    1. Nope! Liberals have banned “black” as it is racist. When they banned “assault rifles” like in VA, they are banning “black” guns as written into law.

      Also the LEFT has banned “Black Nationalist,” and “Black Supremacy” [as it’s not ever used in any of their narratives in the media–not a peep! BUT remember that Black movement a few years ago with scores of police officers murdered in the line of duty]….

      However, “white supremacy” and “white nationalism” are still alive and well and currently secure in the vernacular and used often in their narrative against Christ-principled souls.

      Remember! Don’t use the word “black” anymore… you racist!!! There’s only white-nationalists and white supremacy (no other color can be a supremist at all)–NOPE!

      Chuckle!
      Chuckle!

  7. HP,

    Gotta cut back on posting as it is exhausting me. And there are other things to do such as get the green house fired up. It already has last year’s Giant Swiss Chard emerging.

    I just ordered X-3 iodine from Infowars.com for a friend who also fits into the demographics of those who read this blog, ages 50 and up. Like many here, I can’t afford it myself, but then I can truly self isolate, and see just how bad this bug is before taking a chance of catching it. This blog is comprised of those who are greatest at risk, especially if they have a history of smoking, copd, cardio vascular disease, or co-morbitities. Percentages assigned to age groups can be misleading, but we can safely say that the CFR for this group will be much higher than the average used in estimates. As a mental exercise, if the ‘official’ CFR is 1%, then the average CFR for this blog might be 9%, perhaps. Who knows for sure. The older we are, the greater the risk. Looking at the risk factors of an individual should also be used to assess the health risk.

    Frankly, and as stated earlier, and often, we do not have enough solid information to accurately predict, but must use our common sense and discernment to gauge this threat. Data from any government is unreliable for a variety of reasons. A comparison to the Spanish Flu is perhaps the best we can do. To fully appreciate the comparison, one must look deeper into the history of the Spanish Flu. It started out mild, and became more virulent, even hemorrhagic during it’s third wave. Few know this. Of course it could become weaker as well. What will be the actual CFR, as only science in the future can measure, we cannot know. Low estimates of it’s CFR can be useful, yet only to a limited extent, as it assumes hospitalization is available. These numbers do not reflect the CFR once hospital beds are no longer available. It would be a multiple. If the stated CFR is only 1%, yet no hospitalization is available, then the CFR may jumped to 3% to 4 %. That is on par with the Spanish Flu that had a CFR of 2 to 3%. It is also safe to say that there are already many different strains, more than 2, and there is no information on the CFR of these various strains. As there might be a more virulent strain that as of now, is not represented in a available to the public CFR. It is not measured, and not in our calculus. A quoted CFR that is currently available, is misleading as the sample size is too small.

    Regardless, the economic and social consequences of this virus will be more significant than the virus itself. Our efforts to prepare for this virus will not be wasted. There will be plenty of death and disease to deal with in the future as well, and we were likely deficient in our medical supplies anyway. We can however safely say that the virus is triggering a economic and financial meltdown to occur sooner, rather than latter. As a demographic who will help the younger generation make it though this, taking any unnecessary risks with this virus should be avoided. We may not make it to see His Second Coming, but our younger family and friends may. And at the very least, we must endeavor to endure to preserve His word, and be witness.

    As the last of traditional America, is it better we respond early, rather than too late. We are fortunately that it is not a sudden crash and failure of the financial system we must contend with, and we have a few weeks, or perhaps as much as month or so to before medical martial law is in place in our area. Use it or loose it.

    1. Dear, dear Tunnel Rabbit,

      I agree with your all your sentiments. We all here at the Blog, the editors and on behalf of all of the Readers do so thank you for your work, time and many contributions of extremely helpful and pertinent information. We do understand that it is exhausting to think, research and organize thoughts and write so very much. Please do rest but also still stick around and check in for banter and some input. May the Lord God bless all of your efforts and continue to use you mightily, virtually, among your family, friends and neighbors.

      Blessings and thanks,

      Lily

  8. It’s “interesting” as I’m already seeing the scarcity of a number of items and I’m not talking about masks, wipes or ammo. I have had a few things on my Amazon wish list that I’d need to order for the house once I bought it and all of a sudden those items are no longer available or only through third party sellers at deeply inflated prices! I’m talking about things like mattresses, not “survival” sorts of stuff. I think that this is because these items come from overseas, likely China, and production and/or shipping has been impacted by the virus such that the supply is gone and there are none in the pipeline to replace them. I suspect we’re going to see a lot of this in the days, weeks and months ahead. We’re so used to being able to obtain all sorts of stuff whether in a local store or online but I think those days are ending, at least for now. Now I personally need to jump on it and figure out what I absolutely need to acquire and do that ASAP.

  9. Jesus Christ is still the Prince Of Peace, May He give us all Peace thru out the coming days. Thank you Lily for giving the Bread of Life as we need this every day. With the signs of the times indicating a time window of Good Fishing of men and women for the Lord (as difficult times are the Best times to begin to follow the Only Way that leads to life Jesus Christ) For those who still need Him please this is your call, swim to Him. Only In His Name is Salvation. This free gift cost His Precious Blood. Do NOT be without The Most Precious thing in this world that you can receive. This is the First step for being ready. Sincerely, Beautiful Pearl

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.