Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at investing in custom and production knives. (See the Tangibles Investing section.) But first, don’t skip reading the lead article, on silver.

Precious Metals:

Silver Surges 3% To $18.30oz; Next Resistance At $20/oz and Then $50/oz

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Gold Price Forecast: Gold Topped, Just Like In The 90s

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At Zero Hedge: Three Things Gold Isn’t

Government Debt & Finance:

Mnuchin Says Ultra-Long Bonds Under ‘Very Serious Consideration’

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Key yield curve inverts to worst level since May 2007, 30-year rate under 2%

The article begins:

“Long-term Treasury rates added to their monthlong slide on Tuesday, aggravating a key yield curve inversion and sending the 10-year yield to its lowest level against the 2-year rate since 2007.

The yield on the benchmark 2-year Treasury note, more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy, held steady at 1.533%, 4 basis points above the 10-year note’s rate of 1.493%. Earlier, the spread between the two yields dropped to 4.2 basis points, its most-negative point since May 2007.

The spread between the 3-month Treasury yield and that of the 10-year note — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inversion metric — slumped to -50 basis points, its lowest since March 2007. The 30-year bond yielded 1.978%, near its all-time low; the 30-year rate fell under 2% for the first time ever on Aug. 14.

Falls of the 10-year rate below the 2-year yield are viewed by fixed income traders as important recession prognosticators, marking an unusual phenomenon as bond holders receive better compensation in the short term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced a 155-point gain on Tuesday as bond yields fell.”

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Treasury is about to flood the market with debt to fund U.S.’s $1 trillion deficit — and that is a concern

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Aussie Reserve Bank, Considering “Extreme Measures”, Admits “We’re Almost Out Of Ammo”

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And at Wolf StreetUS National Debt Spiked $363 billion in Two Weeks, $1 Trillion in 12 months. But Who Bought This Pile of Treasury Securities?

Commodities:

Nick Cunningham: U.S. Oil Exports Become Victim Of Their Own Success

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Posted early this month, at Detroit News: Future nickel supplies worry Tesla, EV battery makers

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China’s rare earth producers say they are ready to weaponise their supply stranglehold, pass any tariff as cost to US customers

Forex & Cryptos:

Over at MIA, there is this from Bob Adelmann: Speaking the Unspeakable: A Weaker Dollar Could Set Off the Avalanche

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Pound to Euro forecast: Sterling sell-off continues as chances of a no-deal Brexit remain high

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Libra partner MasterCard is building its own cryptocurrency team

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The Bitcoin Skeptic: Bitcoin Isn’t a Hedge for Anything

Tangibles Investing (Knife Investing):

How to Price Custom Knives

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A Dallas Arms Collectors Gun & Knife Show will be held 21-22 September, 2019 at the Dallas Market Hall, in Dallas, Texas.

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The New York Custom Knife Show November 22 – 23, in Jersey City, New Jersey. JWR’s Comment: It seems that New York City knife shows are not held in New York. They are held in New Jersey. And New Jersey gun shows?  Those appear to be held in Virginia.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be just about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




10 Comments

  1. A couple of comments, Ultra long term bonds? Thirty year bonds are under 2%. Are these people out of their minds? At the rate of inflation these low yield bonds will be absolutely worthless in a very short time and will have to be sold at a very steep discount to get some of your money back out of them, only a lunatic would buy these, they are so worthless as to not even be considered a short term parking place for excess capital when you consider the in and out costs of acquisition and sales.. My mattress pays higher yields and is not subject to bail in’s. Follow JWR’s guide lines. Invest in tangibles. I made 18% buy buying a dozen tubes of toothpaste at the first of the year, similar yield on shampoo, dog food etc. Canned chili at $.88 on sale, regular price $1.38. I recently bought 50 lb. bags of Pinto Beans at Cash and Carry for just a little over $16 (normal price is $34.) How’s that for high yield investment advice, and I didn’t charge you a brokerage fee or commission.

    1. Joe is a very smart man! Tangibles are a great hedge for preserving your life and your wealth.
      We don’t know for sure what lies ahead,but many of us don’t have a good feeling about the future.
      You can never go wrong investing in long term stabile food stuffs,as well as a reliable water source,medical supplies,and personal security equipment.
      Precious metals are absolutely the best way to preserve wealth,and possibly be the only thing with purchasing power when a world wide financial reset occupies.
      I don’t know how to react to the “Bitcoin Crowd”. Should we laugh at them,or feel sorry for them? How can you put your hopes in something that exists only in the imagination,and is not backed by anything?

    2. Yes, I agree with Joe’s comments. Also, I do not believe anyone in their right mind would purchase 100 yr bonds because it is equal to throwing your money away. So, I ask myself, why would so called business experts tout such a thing, that they themselves would not purchase? My guess is that it is to acquire other people’s money for free. My gut feeling is that they will invisibly get pension plans and similar ententies to buy them without our knowledge or ability to prevent it.

    3. The real return on these Ultra Long bonds is going to be to vulture capitalists,when the value of these bonds goes to near zero they will be bought up and the new owner goes to a friendly court and the court orders the bonds to be paid off at face or better(reverse haircut). Argentina sold these not to long ago and were bought up,they must have looked good compared to negative return alternatives

  2. We live in interesting (and stressful) times don’t we! I have always been taught and think it’s worth remembering, where investing in anything is concerned it follows that one simple rule should provide guidance.
    Unless and until you have physical control of anything, be it paper money, gold/silver bullion/coin, tangibles, etc. You have nothing! Any sort of promissory note, no matter it’s past reliability, is simply only worth the paper it’s printed on. It has no actual value other than the trust placed upon the makers and holders. Trust I might add, that in our present day, is failing rapidly.
    Throughout history, actions have always trumped words. Ronald Reagan got it right when he stated an age old adage – Trust – but verify!
    We must put trust in our fellow human beings, but that trust must be backed up with honorable actions. At least that’s my view on getting along in this world..

  3. The low interest on the 30 year bonds is simply a hedge against zero interest rates. i.9% sure looks good compared to zero. We’re not at zero, yet, but it is coming to a Central Bank near you, and relatively soon.

    On BREXIT and the Euro. BREXIT will be the best thing that has happened to the British in a very long time. It will also be the the worse thing that has happened to the EU and the Euro since it came into existence. The ECB knows it and that is why they fight so hard to keep it from happening. Also that is why the elitists in Britain are fighting so hard to make it stop, they see their corrupt bribes from Europe coming to an end. Like all too many politicians and bureaucrats, they fear the loss of their power and their ill-gotten gains.

    Buy nickles, lots and lots of nickles, before it’s too late.

    Finally, on the national debt: Hold on to your seat, we’re in for a very wild ride.

  4. Looks like they moved the NYCKS to NJ around 2013 due to NYCs unfriendly knife laws. Don’t blame although I would have gone to PA personally. I guess Jersey City is closer to airports etc.

  5. Two or three years ago JWR said buy rhodium. For grins I bought two from the Baird mint for $650.00 each. Today on Kitco to buy one is $5,135.00. I wish I had bought a truck load.

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