(Continued from Part 1.)
The Question of External Shock and Collapse
The position may be taken that the decay as described can be reversed with the right political will, and the hope is that President Trump may turn things around, at least enough to prevent the coming collapse that the demonic Left so lusts for. Even so, the very election of Trump, if he can get past the extensive lawfare that has been set up to eliminate him, itself showing the decline of both the rule of law and democracy in America, will plunge America into a war zone far beyond the temper tantrums seen by antifa in 2020, over the George Floyd affair. As Mike Adams has pointed out, the radical Left may move to sabotage domestic infrastructure, the grid, pipelines and oil refineries. [34] There may be assassination attempts upon Republican politicians and corporate executives, moving to attacks upon rural America. And that assumes that Congress certifies the 2024 election if Trump wins it; 57 percent of Democrat voters would oppose the certification, even if Trump won fair and square. [35] That could be the final straw leading to civil war, as the predictive programming in the forthcoming film, Civil War, perhaps anticipates.
Quite apart from these political shocks, there are other external factors that could push societies into the abyss, including geophysical catastrophes such as asteroid and comet impacts, volcanic super-eruptions, giant earthquakes and mega-tsunamis. [36] Abrupt climate change, biodiversity decline, and resource limitations are other controversial, hotly debated mechanism of collapse/ TEOTWAWKI. [37] Following from the present revelations that Covid-19 is likely to be a lab creation, which leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, we should also be alarmed that American and communist Chinese scientists are hot at work with gain-of-function genetic engineering, to make bird flu (perhaps with a mortality of 50 percent for humans), even more deadly. [38] Expect something like this, or worse to be leaked from a bioweapon’s lab; lab leaks and accidents increased by 50 percent in the UK since Covid-19. [39] There are also more sci-fi scenarios such as runaway AI, with some AI gurus such as Eliezer Yudkowsky predicting that AI will reach the super-human level via the singularity in anywhere from two to five years, and end humanity, Terminator style. [40] The US State Department appears to take this “extinction-level” threat seriously. [41]
However, one means by which society could reach a Mad Max scenario quickly is through an EMP (electromagnetic pulse), a solar EMP, coronal mass ejection (CME), from the sun, or by an EMP weapon used in a warfare attack by any of America’s enemies, such as communist China, Russia, North Korea, and/or Iran. First, to discuss the solar threat, the 1859 Carrington Event caused telegraph lines to catch on fire, but today, the electronic infrastructure is much more extensive. [42] While some theorists have written that a TEOTWAWKI event like this is not likely, but still possible [43], others put the probability of another Carrington Event to be 12 percent per annum. [44]
However, on 23 July, 2012 a CME almost as powerful as the Carrington Event, narrowly missed the Earth. If it had directly hit dead-on, according to NASA, the damage would be massive, perhaps taking up to 10 years to repair, if at all. [45] There have been many smaller CMEs since that time, but the really significant one occurred on March 12, 2023, where a CME erupted from the side of the sun, opposite the Earth; the CME was 10 to a hundred times more powerful than the Carrington Event of 1859. [46] J. R. Dunn has described the significance of this:
One serious difference from 1859 was that the explosion that took place on the side of the sun facing away from earth. If it had been facing in our direction, if the earth has borne the full brunt of that blast, we can scarcely imagine the results. It’s likely that all operating electrical systems would have been immediately destroyed, the same as the telegraph systems in 1859. Any active electronic instruments — and possibly even those that happened to be shut down — would have been fried, transformed into useless hunks of plastic, metal, and silicon. The electrical and electronic networks (e.g., the Net) that form the framework of Third Millennial civilization would have been annihilated. Once they were destroyed, all power would vanish. Industry would grind to a halt. Massive amounts of data, including almost all financial data, would simply disappear. All methods of communication beyond voice range would no longer exist. It wouldn’t be a matter of waiting to be rescued by the government of any sort. Government would have shrunk to little more than a notion. The very tools on which relief, and even recovery, depend would simply have vanished. The consequences beggar the imagination. A new Dark Age would have been the best option to expect. [47]
There has been a figure cited in the literature of around 90 percent of the population dying off from such an event. [48] According to the late Dr Peter Pry:
Everything is in blackout and nothing works. The EMP sparks widespread fires, explosions, all kinds of industrial accidents. Firestorms rage in cities and forests. Toxic clouds pollute the air and chemical spills poison already polluted lakes and rivers. In seven days, the over 100 nuclear power reactors run out of emergency power and go Fukushima, spreading radioactive plumes over the most populous half of the United States. There is not even any drinking water and the national food supply in regional warehouses begins to spoil in three days. There was only enough food to feed 320 million people for 30 days anyway. [49]
However, the 90 percent die-off figure could be an under-estimate, since, there is the issue of the 450+ nuclear power plants in the world, running out of fuel for backup generators in the event of such a crash, so that the zirconium cladding ignites leading to Chernobyls across the societies that have experienced the crash. [50] There has been little scientific research on this event (I have emailed most of the leading nuclear disaster scientists across the world to see how this could be addressed, with no solution), but common sense suggests that this poisoning event would lead to a substantial die off of people. [51]
The above disaster could also arise from the use of EMP weapons in war. [52] Both Vladimir Putin, and Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security council, Dmitry Medvedev, have issued saber-rattling warnings that Russia will undertake a nuclear war if NATO troops are active in the Ukraine, and/or if there is an attempt to return Russia to the border of 1991, with attacks upon Kiev, Berlin, London and Washington. [53] The mainstream view is that Russia and/or communist Chinese nuclear first strikes will not be undertaken against America, because of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). However, the late Dr. Peter Pry (1954-2022), former Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, and a leading expert on EMP attacks, has argued that MAD is limited, since it did not consider EMP attacks. [54] Both Russia and China have the doctrine of “Total Information Warfare,” using EMP weapons, that could be employed by hypersonic missiles, or by orbiting nukes. [55] As well, even without nuclear attacks, trained soldiers, like the supposed tens of thousands of military-age communist Chinese that have been let into America through the open southern border, could easily take down the grid using more conventional weapons, explosives and high-power microwave devices. [56]
There is important reading on the most likely aftermath of a CME of Carrington Event and beyond dimensions, and a nuclear EMP, by Jonathan Hollerman. [57] He also has two interviews on YouTube with Canadian Prepper “Massive Grid Down Event: What You Aren’t Being told,” November 18, 2023, and “Alert: No One’s Ready for What’s Coming,” November 19, 2023. I will not spoil it, but if even half of these grim predictions prove to be correct, we could well be in Mad Max sooner than expected.
After the Collapse
[First a disclaimer; the concern here is for a societal collapse, Without Rule of Law situation. It may be that some weapons discussed here are presently illegal in one’s jurisdiction; check the laws and regulations. Naturally, no liability is accepted for misuse by the writer or by SurvivalBlog. With that said…]
All that we know about human nature indicates that people will not go peacefully into the dark night of oblivion, but will be as violent, if not more so, than seen throughout history [58] During the period of the great die off, as discussed by Hollerman, at least for America, firearms using conventional smokeless powder will be seen on the urban battlefields, as unprepared people desperately scrounge for water and food. Cities will not be survivable, no matter what quantity of supplies and ammo one has, Hollerman convincingly argues in my opinion. Violence, and inevitable disease will make cities into graveyards. Mr Rawles will be proven correct, that survival requires moving to a survival retreat far enough away from urban centers, that the golden hordes cannot reach one with a tank of gas and spare fuel containers. All done before the collapse.
For the survivors, firearms will be the primary range weapon for at least a generation or two. Smokeless power will eventually run out, but it may well be that the greatest threats will be over then, as population numbers crash. However, those remaining may through survival of the fittest, not the most moral, be future threats. As in pre-modernity, weapons will still be essential for self-protection. Things are likely to return to how it was in pre-modernity, where barbarian raiders could strike homesteads to pillage, even if this was not common; once will be more than enough.
It has been observed in previous discussions of the “multigenerational scenario,” that black powder firearms would be the next choice, after smokeless powder is used up, as the components of black power could be stored indefinitely, provided care to protect the compounds from moisture occurs. [59] Other contributors to Survivalblog.com have seen the return to archery occurring in the longer term, including the use of cross bows, compound bows, and recurve bows (perhaps even the long bow). [60] There are of course issues about wear and tear of bows, and how they might be constructed from scratch. I do not have personal competency in archery, so I will pass by this topic, only noting that those interested in use of the bow and arrow should have a look at the videos by Lars Andersen, who has revived an old form of speed archery practiced by the Mongol and Comanche bowman, so that two arrows can be in flight at the same time. [61] This means that the bow can become a close-range assault weapon.
Melee Weapons
When man struggles with man at close quarters only the two ancient weapons remain essential – the knife and the club. These are elemental; these are vital; these are simple and certain. Relying on them our prehistoric ancestors mastered beasts of a size and ferocity almost beyond our imagination. [62]
It would be easy to propose that one should spend some serious dollars purchasing high quality swords for one’s family and that is that as far as melee weapons go. As far as a defense against home invaders, there are numerous reports of people using swords, even wall hangers, to defend their homes; in one case two armed home invaders attacked the householder with a sword. He managed to grasp the sword, killing one attacker and cutting up the hands and legs of the other. [63] My guess here is that the sword in question was probably not a top-quality piece, and that the homeowner was not an expert in modern swordsmanship, and if this is right, it shows how deadly swords can be.
That being said, swords have disadvantages compared to other melee weapons. As discussed by Historical European Martial Arts (HEMA) expert Matt Easton at YouTube Scholargladitoria, “Swords are Weak…”, and with Skallagrim, “Are Real Swords More Fragile than You Think? Also on YouTube, swords are “weak,” in terms of destructive impact compared to heavier pole arms such as the bill, which may or may not be of concern in the post-apocalyptic wastelands depending upon the weapons of any invaders.
Swords also have structural limitations due to their relatively thin blades; most, but not all (e.g., the grosse messer), have rat tangs, not true full tangs, and breaks around the handle do occur. (Twice, in my life). As well, blades may chip even on things that swords should be able to destroy, such as bone. Worse, faulty heat treatments can lead to blades breaking; I recall reading an article back in the 1990s in an Australian knife magazine of someone who spent $20,000 Australian Dollars on a katana made in Japan, and did a test cutting, only to find the blade snapped, to his utter embarrassment.
(To be continued tomorrow, in Part 3.)