I recently saw a prepper forum which posted the question “What is your biggest fear?” Answers listed varied from EMP to riots to complete financial collapse to nuclear strikes in your backyard. I thought a long time about this fear-based. In my mind, I prepare so I do not fear; or really, so that I fear less.
So what are we really afraid of? Are we afraid of the causes of a crisis, or the consequences? Causes and crises are scary, and there are many: wars, recession, wildfires, tornados, hurricanes, blizzards, ad infinitum. Take your pick. But the consequences are almost universally the same; namely a reduction in our standard of living and/or imminent danger to our lives and property. To what degree that standard of living may be reduced and our lives endangered is the only real unknown a prepper needs to fear. If you look at you needs of life (check out Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs) and ask yourself how you will provide for those needs come what may, you can expose weak spots in your preparations and, perhaps more importantly, organize and prioritize your ongoing and future preparations.
I believe you should put all of your prepping categories through the gauntlet on consequence-based thinking. Needs such as food, shelter, water, security, entertainment, income, investment should all be thought-out thoroughly and analytically. Prepping should not be an emotional endeavour. Break down all your needs, all the subcategories, even all your individual preps or plans into their most basic components, and run them all through the mill of comprehensive and intentionally thought-out ‘what ifs’, and see how they stand up. Make sure you write them down. Keep your records organized. I strongly encourage all of you who are new to the preparedness world to organize your needs in a similar way, either as below or in some other manner, and then write it down. Your written work serves not only as a future guide of prepping priorities, but can serve as a plan to deal with the full consequences of any foreseen crisis. Not only will these records help your current preps, but if and when things go sideways it will be your blueprint for fulfilling those needs when the stress makes your head spin. Even people who have been preparing for years may find it useful to revisit the basics.
Some Potential Major Consequences of Crises
1. Reduced Purchasing Power
I personally think we are experiencing this consequence of crisis right now, and I am sure most of you would agree. Every grocery bill seems to cost more and buy less. But this is more than just accounting for inflation. It includes reductions in incomes, due to lost jobs, layoffs, loss of benefits and other causes. It could simply be becoming injured on or off the job, and having to take sick leave, or losing money in your retirement mutual fund of choice (I earnestly hope you do not have mutual funds. These days you might do better at the roulette table at the local casino. At least their odds are 49-51 if you bet on red or black!) Combat your reduced purchasing power, and prepare for further erosion in purchasing power by:
• Working More! Dave Ramsey correctly states that you biggest money maker is your job. If you can get a different one, do it. I used to refuse to apply for jobs that I thought were “beneath me”, until I met a recent immigrant who taught me that the important job – the one I can be proud of – is any job that provides for my family. If you can’t find another job, keep trying and slug on. It’s increasingly common to be in that situation and there is no shame in it, as long as you keep trying. There is only shame in giving up.
• Budget. Plan a budget. It’s hard, and I can’t count how many budgets I have made and failed to adhere to, but each time I try it makes me a little more focused on my true priorities, which don’t include a new flat screen anymore.
• Buy in bulk, on sale, and coupon. Other articles have been written about this. Search them out in the SurvivalBlog archives. If you know you will need one small tube of toothpaste per month, don’t be afraid to buy 12 large ones when they next go on sale. People will look at you funny right now, but they’ll catch on soon. Stock up on non-perishables that you use daily and when the price is right. These are better than money in the bank. You cannot brush your teeth with money. “Wealth” as a concept means the things you need, or the ability to get the things you need. When money buys less, toothpaste (or any other thing you need, and have) is “wealth”.
• Share. There is no time like the present to start making connections with people around you. If someone needs help now, help them! You might need help later. And it’s not just money and stuff I am talking about; share your time, your labour and your expertise. Think of the old barn raisings in our grandparent’s days. Many together can do what one alone cannot. Start now, and get to know the people around you.
This first category is basically a consequence of hard economic times. Whether it comes about from a lost job, inflation, low supply or high demand, the results are similar: you cannot afford as much as you used to be able to. Preppers often prepare for these consequences unintentionally. If you are worried about mass inflation, then you probably have your bases covered for the regular kind. We have not yet seen mass inflation in our lifetimes (at least in North America), yet many of us have had our purchasing power suddenly and drastically reduced.
2. Scarcity
Scarcity means the things you need to live are no longer available. How will you meet your needs when there is no food on the grocery store shelves, no power, no gas at the gas station, no medications at the pharmacy, no plumbing, no mass transit, etc, etc, etc. Peak oil, just-in-time delivery, shortages – there are many crises that could result in scarcity. Offset the hardships of scarcity with the following:
• A Larder. Did you notice that newer houses aren’t built with pantries anymore? I remember the cold room at my grandma’s house – in the basement stocked to the roof with mason jars, with a framed dirt bin along one wall for the potatoes and carrots. Why did people do this? To live. In the great depression, for many people, if they couldn’t make or grow something themselves, they didn’t have it. Think like your grandparents. They lived through hard times. For many of them, going to the grocery store once a month was a convenience. If your grandparents had it easy, think like my grandparents and fill you larder. If you buy the things you need in bulk, to hedge against your loss in purchasing power, you likely have a start on some sort of storage or larder.
• Do It Yourself. Learn to do things for yourself, and reduce your dependence on buying stuff. “We have no knowledge, so we have stuff, but stuff without knowledge is never enough.” (Greg Brown). Learn to start a fire, build an improved woodstove (check out practicalaction.org), cook your own meals, bake bread, build an outhouse, poop in a hole in the woods, knit socks, darn socks, anything. And then try to meet other people who think the same way. Knitting clubs, pottery lessons, artisan guilds, reloaders; there are many activities people do for pleasure that used to be essential to life, and may be again.
• Barter. Again, share. A community is stronger than an individual and has access to greater resources. Cut your neighbour’s lawn with your old-timey push mower in exchange for using her pressure canner. Ask around of you need something; seek and you will find it.
3. Hunker Down
“Bug In” is the term most commonly used for this consequence, preferably at your retreat or retreat-in-place. This is what happens when there is a pandemic, martial law, curfews, tornadoes, blizzards, etc. Bugging in may require:
• The need for short term self sufficiency in your home, even with disruptions of utilities (Unavailability) such as power and plumbing. Includes plans for meeting the basic needs or human life (food, water, warmth, toilets). You should have this covered if you have a larder, with the addition of some sort of hygiene/pooping plan.
• Entertainment. Don’t overlook this one! Your sanity depends on it.
• The need for defence of your home (I.e. strong doors, storms shutters, and other means…)
• Communication. A radio or security cameras would be useful in knowing when that tornado warning ends, or the bad guys are gone. How are you going to know when it is safe to come out of the basement?
4. Evacuation!
Everyone should consider the need to beat feet and get out of dodge. It’s not just meant for a coming world collapse or when bad guys knocking down your front door – even the most prepared family retreat needs to have an evacuation plan for natural disasters such as wildfires or floods. If you are planning on ‘bugging in’ for every conceivable crisis, you are committing to going down with your ship. A noble principle, I suppose, but I would rather build another ship. How will you meet your basic needs of life in an evacuation? Some ideas:
• Documentation. Everything you need to access your resources, like bank account records, will, identification, medical prescriptions, etc, and important phone numbers for your family and friends who you will likely be visiting very, very soon. Get it in paper and backed up electronically (perhaps on an encrypted USB).
• Mini-Larder. A bug-out bag or get out of dodge kit is really just a portable mini-larder, with the necessities for life in the short term or the ability to provide for them. Pack it up, customize it, put it in the trunk of your car, carry it on your back or whatever. The most minimal bug out bag I would consider is carrying a small metal can, a knife, and a lighter. Don’t leave home without it.
• A Plan. So you left your house: now what? Part of your security planning in an evacuation is the plan to reach safety. Routes, vehicles, extra gas might all be required, but it might just mean moving up the hill to get out of the tsunami evacuation zone like in Hawaii after the Fukushima earthquake. How will you get your kids out of your 2nd storey bedroom when the main floor of your home is on fire?
The potential for evacuation is real, for everyone, everywhere. A house fire would have the same consequence, initially, as any other crisis – you would have to leave fast. I think the potential for evacuation is something everyone should be addressing, and is a good way to introduce people to the ideas surrounding emergency preparedness.
5. End of the World as We Know It
Worst-case scenarios like are hard to predict. Things could always be worse. In essence they are unpredictable. As a TEOTWAWKI event, I imagine ALL of the above consequences happening at once, or for a long, long time. It would be death, chaos and mass destruction. I can’t give you any instructions on this consequence of crises, except to do your best, do right, and make your peace with God. ‘Nuff said.
6. Status Quo
This is the one that no prepper likes to talk about. But it needs to be talked about. There is the possibility, however distant we might think it, that things will remain unchanged for long time. That doesn’t rule out things like job loss, but when we put all our resources into preps at the expense of our financial well-being and happiness, we have left the path of wisdom. Live within your means. Do not max out your credit cards to buy preps for an event that could be years away. They will repossess your stuff, and you will be worse off than when you started. No second mortgages to buy the armoured vehicle you think you need!
• Live within your means.
• Make rational decisions, not emotional or fear-based decisions.
• Balance the future with the present. You never know, that asteroid that causes the end of the world could fall directly on your head. Spending your life worrying about it would have been a silly thing to do, wouldn’t it? Or you could have a heart attack tomorrow. So prepare, make it your new useful insurance policy, but don’t let it consume you and your happiness. Spend time with the people you care about doing the things you love to do.
This list is by no means exhaustive. It’s just a method a taking the fear out of any given disaster scenario and replacing it with a plan. It has helped me, but you mileage may vary. At the very least, I encourage everyone to revisit their preps, to re-evaluate and reassess, and look for areas that nay have been previously glossed over. Think of the aspects of your basic needs and how you provide for them in the event of different consequences that life may send at you. Do it slowly, and write it down. A wise friend of mine told me once, that in our lives, we are either heading out of a crisis, or into one. He meant it on a more personal level, dealing with loss of a family member, but it applies everywhere. If you plan well, if you plan rationally and intentionally, then all your preps should be either useful or enjoyable to your life now. So what if someone makes fun of you for having a year’s supply of toothpaste? You’re going to use it one way or another, and you got it on sale.