Category: Plagues and Pandemics

More About Asian Avian Flu

Several time in recent days I’ve read references to the Asian Avian Influenza (“A.A. Flu“) having a “less than 50% mortality rate.” Clinically, perhaps, but not in a real world pandemic! Why? The 50% figure is based on advanced medical treatment. Because A.A. flu is a respiratory disease, therapies that are currently being used to combat the small outbreaks in Asia this will not be available at home. (This includes inhalation therapy, anti-bacterial drugs like Ciprofloxacin (“Cipro”)–already in short supply–and ventilators.) Here is a data point for you: There 105,000 ventilators installed at U.S. hospitals, of which at least 70,000 …


Letter From “A. Microbiologist” Re: Asian Avian Flu

A reader asked about Avian Influenza (H5N1.) Do public health professionals take it seriously? The answer is very much Yes. Of course we can’t predict the future with certainty, and there *is* a certain amount of hype right now — but, yes, the situation *could* eventually rival the 1918-19 influenza pandemic. At the same time, I must emphasize there is no guarantee that will happen: and we are not there, yet, not by a long shot. The bottom line is yes, it is *possible* the H5N1 virus could mutate so as to efficiently jump between humans (person-to-person transmission) and cause …


Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu

Aloha Jim– Your Thursday, October 6th reference about the [potential] Avian Flu Pandemic article is a “must read” from page 18 to the end. Included is a specific list of OTC supplies and prescription medications, plus how to care for the ill in your family. These very informative details are predicated on the likelihood that a pandemic would overwhelm professional help/facilities, requiring family members to care for each other. It’s a chilling, but should be a required read – B.B. in Hawaii


Letter from “The Army Aviator” Re: Suspension of Posse Comitatus and The Asian Avian Flu

Jim: Trying a little “out of the box” perambulation. I disremember but seem to recall that this was your bailiwick back when. I noticed the President is publicly talking about getting congress to authorize the use of military troops should bird flu, et al occur. It seems to me that particular authority already exists. So I ponder. If he already has the authority, why ask for it again? Is it to make a public statement that he asked, as part of good planning, before it happened and we should be grateful and pleased? Does he know that “massive plague (or …


Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu

Hello Jim, Your readers and contributors include a fair number of medical professionals. With all the hype in the news regarding “the coming pandemic” of Avian Flu, I’d be curious to get their professional take on it. Specifically, do they see it as a real threat and if so, what advice they would have for laymen. Thanks, – Dutch in Wyoming JWR Replies: I ‘m hoping that some of our readers who are medical professionals chime in on this subject. In the interim, Dr. Geri Guidetti of The Ark Institute kindly provided this article on Asian Avian Flu on her …


Letter From Fred The Valmet-meister Re: Asian Avian Flu

Jim: I heard Dr. Bill Wattenburg on KGO last night talking about the Asian bird flu. I also read the link you gave to the article on WorldNetDaily. Dr. Bill really scared me this time! I am a bit depressed hearing what he said last night. He said that if the virus does make the jump to humans, it will kill half the population of the Earth. I’m not kidding he said that. He said it would be worse than a nuclear bomb going off in the major big cites because everyone would try to flee. Oh my God. I …


From David in Israel Re: Disease and Disease Vectors

James: The flu of 1918 killed more people than World War I. The Black Death (bubonic plague) was a leading cause of death during the middle ages. The ban on DDT and the resultant rebound of malaria has caused more death than Stalin and Mao and the Austrian corporal (may their memory and name be erased). History is filled with the tragedy caused by intentional and unintentional microorganism-caused deaths. Plans need to be made for dealing with disease vectors that can carry these microbes. Rodents can carry plague and many other pathogens, cats are good but may carry the pathogen …


Mutation of Asian Avian Flu (H5N1) Could Result in a Global Pandemic with the Deaths of “Tens of Millions”

I’ve mentioned the Asian Avian Flu (H5N1) several times since I launched this blog in August. The risk of mutation of the virus into a form that could be transmitted from person to person (P2P) is relatively small. However, if that were to happen, it would be catastrophic. The folks at WorldNetDaily (one of my daily “must reads”) just posted a story that quotes a WHO official that said that a species-jumping P2P mutation of H5N1 could cause a global pandemic that would likely result in “the deaths of “tens of millions”. Take the time to read this article, and …


Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu

Mr. Rawles- Thanks for your comments on the avian flu. Just in case you missed it, there is a very interesting article in the Washington Post today about a renowned flu scientist and his thoughts on a possible pandemic. In his words, it is inevitable that one of these strains will mutate into humans and “blow up”. FYI, the current H5N1 strain has a 58% mortality rate in humans. Unfortunately registration with the Washington Post is required to view the article, but it is free. – “Some Call Me Tim”


Letter from Nurse Livengood Re: Asian Avian Flu (H5N1)

Thanks for the great blog. I have been looking for this information for a long time. Thanks. In regards to the flu: here is some information from two good sources. The first is from the August 13th issue of the Lancet (major medical journal from the UK): The Lancet 2005; 366:533-534 DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(05)67080-8 H5N1 Influenza Pandemic: Contingency Plans Kenneth WT Tsang email address a, Philip Eng b, CK Liam c, Young-soo Shim d and Wah K Lam d The current epidemic of the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza, with a mortality of 58%, appears relentless in Asia, particularly in …



Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu

While we all hope and pray that a human to human strain of Avian flu doesn’t happen, do not forget that the major form of transmission of this disease is between fowl. Water fowl especially. Since chickens don’t fly very far, waterfowl seem to be the primary carriers of this flu from country to country and county to county. What that means is that should it start to spread across your country (wherever that may be) your chicken flock is at risk of getting the stuff themselves unless you plan ahead. Chicken coops that are enclosed from other birds are …


Letter on the Asian Avian Flu

I have an idea for a topic that I would certainly like to get your thoughts on. As you probably know, scientists are nervously watching poultry in Southeast Asia for signs of a new virulent strain of flu. Just today the Guardian published an article on the topic, and how scientists think they can contain the epidemic to 200 people. I am not so confident in their efforts, and would like to hear your thoughts on the topic of how one can prepare for the possibility of a possible flu epidemic. – “T” JWR’s Reply: Asian Avian Flu (H5N1) is …