Category: Emerging Threats

Letter Re: Deflation Possibly Followed by Mass Inflation?

Jim, I believe that we are in for deflation, not inflation. A simple error that most people make when considering this topic is language related: When discussing actions of the Fed they talk about ‘printing’ money. Well, the Fed (actually the Treasury) hardly ‘prints’ any money at all. In Zimbabwe they print money. Lots of money with lots of zeroes. Here, they just increase the number of zeroes in a computer. The difference is profound. When there is a lot of currency floating around then people use it to buy stuff. More currency with higher values means more currency chasing …


Full Capacity Magazine Price Increases are Already Here

Regarding my recommendation to stock up on full capacity magazines, reader David B. noted this in an e-mail yesterday morning: “[The discount mail order dealer] Cheaper Than Dirt [is] already gouging us based on our fear of Obama being elected. Overnight, their price for Mag-Pul [brand AR-15/M16] magazines went from $15.97 each to $29.97 each. Wow. They just lost my business forever.” David’s note intrigued, me, so I just spent some time at the Cheaper Than Dirt (CTD) web site and compared their new prices with their latest hard copy catalog (dated November, 2008). Here is a brief sampling: Glock …


Letter Re: Some Changes in American Wholesale Food Distribution

James, I have a good friend who is an executive in the "food distribution business". They supply restaurants, schools, hospitals, day care centers, nursing homes,,,,,the large quantity food purchasers. This past week at their annual sales meeting, they were informed of coming changes. #1–Most food has been delivered in #10 [96-ounce] or one gallon size cans. [The rolled steel for] most of these cans[is] made in China and the cost has increased dramatically in the past several months because of rising steel prices. Effective December 1, the price on an individual empty #10 can is increasing by about 75 cents …


Letter Re: Did Western Civilization Actually Peak Around 1970?

Jim, I wanted to comment on something that was mentioned near the end of the Utah home break-in article: The author hit on the idea that TEOTWAWKI already took place in the late 1960s. Possibly some gifted insight. I’m a member of a regional Peak Oil group. (I originally joined this group a few years ago, in order to learn food-growing skills: You’ve always suggested getting with various groups, in order to learn skills), we’ve begun a spin off group meeting–a ‘meeting of the minds’ so to speak, involving predictive analysis, regarding the collapse of the current civilization. We were …


Two Letters Re: Adapt to Survive, by Elizabeth B.

Mr. Rawles, I can understand Mrs. B’s reasoning from a long term standpoint. But, what I believe she is missing is that most of what is trying to be conveyed to people on this site is to stock up on articles such as food stuffs, hygiene supplies, bartering goods and such for the period of time that will exist from the point that the realization of a SHTF time and the time when all the skills and knowledge will be needed to sustain life. For an example, lets say that it’s October or November and everything has just fallen apart. …


Five Letters Re: Prisons and Other Institutions Amidst a Societal Collapse?

Mr. Rawles- I just finished reading the letter sent in by the correctional officer regarding his prison’s security infrastructure and keeping the prisoners in during a SHTF scenario. I think he’s missing an important element regarding keeping prisoners in the prison: He assumes the prisoners will be attempting to get over or under the fences unaided. Prisoners have families and social connections on the outside. During a true SHTF breakdown, some of those outsiders will take risks on behalf of their incarcerated loved ones. The fences that should be an obstacle could be breached with a vehicle from the outside …


Letter Re: Prisons and Other Institutions Amidst a Societal Collapse?

Hello Jim, I work at a Correctional Facility. It is a Corrections Corporation of America (CCA) prison with some 1,900 inmates currently housed. Our facility is cross-fenced inside with a 12 foot fence topped with the military razor wire. Yes, you can get across it but you are going to pay a price. They have tried that here and the one that got across would have died in hours from the cuts without an emergency room. I have experienced a full blown riot. This was only 98 prisoners but they trashed the whole mess hall and it spilled out into …


Letter Re: Prisons and Other Institutions Amidst a Societal Collapse?

James: I live in a rural area in Wyoming. My husband, our children and I are lucky to have been raised in the area. We have access to thousands of family owned acreage to hunt, fish and garden on. Because we live in a rural area (at lease ninety miles in any direction from any large community) we are among the few that still have skills handed down to us that will allow us to be self sufficient. I have only recently found your blog and have enjoyed all of what I have read here. I agree wholeheartedly that our …


Letter Re: Anti-Hoarding Law of World War I as a Precedent for Future Laws?

Hello, Thanks for all the helpful information in SurvivalBlog. Regarding the reader who wrote in about the prospect of food hoarding laws; there have indeed been times where private U.S. citizens were forced to give up “unreasonable” stores of provisions, thus setting a possible precedent. For example: In 1918, Herbert Hoover (who would later be a US president), then working as head of the Food Administration, saw to it that a retired Navy doctor and his wife were charged for having about a year’s worth of foodstuffs in their home. (The law stated that more than thirty day supply was …


Letter Re: The Depression of the 1930s–Why No Societal Collapse?

Jim I run a museum that covers, in part, the Great Depression. In a reply to Steve’s letter about how people may react to a “modern” 1930s type depression, you listed a number of economic, social and cultural differences in America in the two time periods. I might add, or expand on, a few. In the 1930s, many more people lived on farms or gardened. Even in many towns and cities, it was common to have a garden and raise a few animals including chickens, rabbits, pigeons. An enormous difference, then and now, is that the garden seeds then were …


Letter Re: How to Handle Real Estate Holdings in a Economic Depression

Sir: If the global economy melts down and we experience a “greater depression” or worse. What is the best strategy for real estate that is already owned? I own a primary home and two rental properties in central Virginia but if the SHTF, I’m going to retreat along with numerous family members, to our farm about 25-30 miles from the nearest city. (It has hundreds of acres for growing, and has ample water, etc.) I don’t have substantial equity in any of my three houses and all mortgages 30 year fixed through Bank of America. Is it worth continuing to …


The Financial Crisis Will Soon Abate, But The Real Crisis Will Soon Begin, by Steve Saville

In an essay first published in 1969 and recently re-published, Murray Rothbard summarizes the causes and cures of economic depressions by drawing on the Business Cycle theory developed by the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises. Here’s an excerpt from this essay: “Mises, then, pinpoints the blame for the cycle on inflationary bank credit expansion propelled by the intervention of government and its central bank. What does Mises say should be done, say by government, once the depression arrives? What is the governmental role in the cure of depression? In the first place, government must cease inflating as soon as …


Four Letters Re: Currency Inflation Expectations for the US

James: The letter [from reader PNG] has severe mistakes and is fundamentally misleading – your readers deserve even more refutation before anyone is lulled into a false sense of security. To quote: “Let’s say the Treasury just invents another two trillion dollars by printing currency and forgiving loans. Let’s say they do that every year for the next five years. How much inflation would that create? The absolute maximum inflation rate from this example is about 20%, because there’s ten trillion dollars in circulation already.” These numbers are incredibly far off the mark. Actually M1 is the narrow definition of …


Letter Re: Currency Inflation Expectations for the US

Jim, You recently wrote: “The Treasury will undoubtedly be forced to monetize a good portion of the National Debt. This is effectively creating money out of thin air. Each new dollar so created will dilute the purchasing power of the dollars that are already in circulation (Both paper and electronic “dollars”.) This wholesale dollar fabrication will be outrageously inflationary. Be prepared for double digit and then triple digit inflation in the next few years.” Let’s say the Treasury just invents another two trillion dollars by printing currency and forgiving loans. Let’s say they do that every year for the next …


Letter Re: What Happened, and What Should We Watch For?

Jim, Thanks for the awesome blog. I consider it essential reading every day, especially now considering the terrible situation we find ourselves in. You keep speaking of mass inflation yet we see oil and other commodities falling in price along with, sadly, our home values. In a recent post you also mentioned being able to buy classic cars at rock bottom prices, closely followed by hyperinflation. Can you explain for all of us how this can come to pass and some of the warning signs? Thanks, – DZ in Louisiana. JWR Replies: To clarify, I mentioned buying older, fuel-inefficient vehicles …