Category: Emerging Threats

Letter Re: When Will TSHTF? One Population Modeler Says 2020

Dear Mr. Rawles, Most of your readership is likely convinced that the coming decades (or years or months) will yield considerable social instability. The hard question is always what form it will take and when it is likely to happen. I found an article about ecological models that seem to describe past historical patterns with some degree of accuracy. From these models, their author is predicting another spike of instability around 2020.  From the article: “To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year …


Letter Re: Some Notable Power Grid Articles

Dear Mr. Rawles, I thought you might find these two articles on microgrid technology to be of interest. They raise the possibility that a well-organized community might be able to continue functioning even after a general grid failure: How Power Outages in India May One Day Be Avoided Microgrid Keeps the Power Local, Cheap, and Reliable Also, major manufacturers are gearing up to produce a new generation of deep-cycle batteries that can be recharged thousands of times, further facilitating the creation of off-grid communities. GE’s Novel Battery to Bolster the Grid Battery to Take On Diesel and Natural Gas Thanks …


Letter Re: Long Term Public Employee Pension Obligations

James: A good read, and the author is right, we shouldn’t paint with a broad brush. However I think he had one glaring inaccuracy, and that inaccuracy is regarding the crucial fact is the crux of the problem people have with government pensions. he wrote:   “I contribute 3% of my salary to my government retirement. Not much you say, but in the civilian corporate world, most companies provide 100% of the employees’ retirement without employee contribution”   This is a blatant falsehood. Company provided pensions have been getting phased out aggressively. They may have been the norm in earlier decades, …


Letter Re: Long Term Public Employee Pension Obligations

Sir: Bob G. wrote on July 19th regarding pension obligations for retired government workers.  The implication seemed to be that they are excessively generous and should be cut.  I am a retired teacher and a taxpayer, so I have two dogs in this fight.  As a taxpayer, I want to hold the line on government spending.  As a retiree, I depend on the money I was promised for my livelihood. Pensions are a contractual obligation backed by the ‘full faith and credit’ of government.  If government had properly funded the liability in the first place, the money to pay pensions would be there today.  …


Letter Re: Long Term Public Employee Pension Obligations

James: I just read Warren Buffett’s comments about municipal bankruptcies on the rise.  (See: Buffet Says Muni Bankruptcies are Set to Climb.) Much of the problem is the super generous retirement plans available to many state, federal and local government workers.  As always, a bit of common sense would help cushion the impact of this largess. After 30 years of service workers are allowed to retire with a full pension.  Many retiring workers are still in their early fifties.  In many cases pensions are being paid out for 10-15 years before the workers are eligible for SS.  To put this …


Letter Re: Cinder Block Safety Concerns

JWR: I have read plenty of entries on your site about people using concrete block (“cinder block”) for square foot gardening and raised bed gardening.  I didn’t know how to post this so, I thought I would just email you this information.   I have been in the Concrete Masonry Unit (CMU) (Concrete Block) industry for almost 11 years.  I started as a yard hand and have recently worked my way up to Plant Manager and Site Safety Manager (two hats due to downsizing and the economy).  I see many people write about using these CMUs or cinder blocks to …


Letter Re: Coronal Mass Ejections and Their Consequences

Good Morning James, The recent coronal mass ejection (CME) began interacting with the terrestrial magnetosphere earlier today. Though initially that interaction was rather subdued a rapid fall-off in the proton particle counters is actually leading to some rather elevated readings over at the Rice.edu monitor site. Polar convection, density and velocity are all registering in the yellow band, while the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) magnitude, angle and the dynamic pressure are all passed up into the red zones. It is worth remembering that a CME consists of hot, charged particles (ionized hydrogen primarily) and as such the situation is similar …


Letter Re: Effective Small Team Tactics for the Coming Collapse

Mr Rawles, I have a few comments after reading the guest article by Max Velocity on small team tactics. I realize the author’s perspective is colored by his time in Afghanistan and Iraq, but there are some issues I have with his article. The first is the Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP) is not the same IED he described in the Off-route section. The EFP is formed by the Miznay-Chardin effect, not the Munroe effect. The EFP (Miznay-Chardin) is a solid slug or can be fragmented by various means, but is not a molten jet of metal (Munroe). The Munroe effect, …


Guest Article: Effective Small Team Tactics for the Coming Collapse, by Max Velocity

I have been a soldier for all my adult life: infantry, special operations and as a civilian security contractor. More recently, I have got into prepping for the survival of my family. I have been working slowly at it, and reading and researching a lot of the publications and related blogs. Given my background, I have a head start in the security area, but many have huge head starts over me in the other desired and required skills that will be essential to survival. I have a lot to learn and a lot to catch up on. However, I would …


Letter Re: National Forest Road Closures in Arizona

Jim, My wife and I were heading back from cabin in the Northern Arizona mountains Saturday (July 7) afternoon and were stopped by a nice elderly lady who worked for the Forest service (vehicle parked across from her) on a forest road. She handed me a new Coconino National Forest map and said “if the roads are not shown on this map then it is closed and that each year they will come out with a new MVUM (motor vehicle use map) and the same applies. So, if the road is not shown, then it is consider closed. I said …


Letter Re: Avoid Becoming a Refugee

Hi Jim; To tie in with your recent comments, the excellent Western Rifle Shooters blog linked to an article on refugees. Though the article was brief, it had some good information. While the goal is to never become a refugee in the first place, in some cases it cannot be avoided and it pays to know what to do in such a case. I was particularly inspired by the links to some “off-road” gear carriers. The first is a home-built model and is quite simple while the other is a German-engineered commercial model. I have given a good bit of …


Letter Re: New Large Sunspots Generating X Class Solar Flares

James: [ Sunspot] 11515 started out squirrely, was and remains same. The X-output has actually started to resume a slightly more regular decay at this point, not completely but still at least a change in the right direction. I was actually typing a brief update on the “Fading” 11515 and the newly enumerated 11520 ( old 11504) after the M-6.9 earlier when the output rose, fell back, and then rose again. THIS is not the behaviour we’d be expecting just after the previous flare. We would be expecting a precipitous drop  (a spike type) or alternately a long steady, concave-up …


Now Entering The Red Zone, by Don H. in Tennessee

We are now entering what I call the Red Zone. Society as we know it is like a high performance race car. It  has many moving parts and some of them are very delicate. Right now that race car is in the red. The RPMs are being pushed to their max and it’s just a matter of time before something has to give or break. The greedy are the ones that are pushing the pedal and they show no signs of slowing down. The incident that just happened in Greece is like the check engine light coming on. Instead of …


Preparing Your Retreat For a Forest Fire or Brush Fire, by F.A.

As hundreds of thousands of acres are burning all across Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona and Wyoming, as I write this article, the smell of smoke wafting through my window has caused me to think about the many thousands of people that have retreated to the Redoubt. While I have no way of knowing how many folks have relocated from parts other than the Rocky Mountain west, I suppose that many are not familiar with the devastation a forest fire can cause; nor how quickly the devastation can occur. I also can only assume that most of the Redoubt folks …


Offshore Relocation: There Is No Perfect Place

I recently read a captivating Daily Bell interview of investing author Ron Holland, wherein he described his reasons for emigrating to Canada. In the interview, Mr. Holland stated: “I left the United States for an exciting business opportunity based in Canada but the increasing authoritarianism in the United States combined with the TSA assaults at airports do make America a threatening jurisdiction to live in or to conduct business in. Add in the threats of a real or contrived future crisis with exchange controls, a run on the dollar and an out-of-control sovereign debt situation makes me very happy to …