Category: Economics & Investing

Hey James, Hope you and your family are well. I have read many books on the coming economic collapse and Peak Oil, your opinion and also your readers comments on SurvivalBlog. For quite a bit of it, I agree. However, I doubt we’ll see a true TEOTWAWKI because of a lack of oil or even a complete collapse as some are predicting. One thing people are forgetting is the HUGE (1.5 Trillion barrels or so) of oil deposited in oil shale in the Western United States. At $35 per barrel of oil, it becomes profitable to start producing oil and …

Jim, Just one more note regarding the rising cost of metals, especially copper in the market – I sent an earlier message regarding recycling cartridge brass (which contains copper) instead of stockpiling copper, but now the New York Times notes in a Saturday brief: “Price of a Penny Could Exceed a Cent – What happens if a penny is worth more than one cent? That is an issue the U.S. Mint could soon face if the price of metals keeps rising. The cost of the metal in a penny has climbed to almost one cent. Add in the cost of …

Jim: I think we now have another way to compute the countdown to the collapse of our society as we know it. Several months ago I read on one of the economic web sites, we both visit, that for every penny the price of fuel goes up $1,400,000 per day is sucked out of the consumer economy. With oil at $74 per barrel today and the PENAC people pushing for another Middle East war, this one with Iran, we are looking at oil reaching $125 per barrel or higher as soon as this dumb war starts. This translates to $5.25 …

We asked you this week, dear reader: What will the next Great Depression bring? How will Americans survive in our day-to-day lives? The responses to this not-so-hypothetical query continue to clog up our inbox, which doesn’t surprise us. What does surprise us, however, is how united our readers are on this subject. Not one message lamented on how strong our economy is right now, and how we are fools for even bringing up the possibility of another Great Depression. Each e-mail portrayed how real this idea is to Americans – that something this bad could be right around the corner. …

The New York silver market has been pushed down sharply on profit taking, to around $11.85 per ounce. (It was over $14 per ounce on Thursday, which was a 25 year high.) My advice: Look at this as a short-term buying opportunity. Buy on this dip! The silver bull should resume his charge in May. Even at under $12 per ounce, silver is still quite high compared to just a month ago. OBTW, I recently bumped up my allowance on pre-1965 silver coinage to NINE times face value, for anyone that wants any of my mail order merchandise (or to …

I have been following the metal’ and copper in particular, as it is a very necessary part of our modern existence.   One of the things I envision, is a shortage of copper tubing. I have been buying a little extra every time I go to the home store. Some of it I plan use for making a still– for making alcohol, other sizes are for my propane tanks and last but not least, I still have copper [water] pipes in my house that are going on 30 years old, so I have been buying some to replace that.   …

Dear Mr. Rawles, I have wanted to write to you for a week or two with respect to an oddity.  An increasing number of sources are discussing the degree to which the base metal in the US penny is becoming more valuable than the penny itself.  This is odd, and www.coinflation.comis tracking it with alleged numerical precision.  If I get some spare time this week, I hope to write about the death of the penny in more detail. Best Regards, – K.A.D. JWR Replies: Silver is about 45 times more bulky than gold, (As I’m writing this, gold is $605.10 …

Mr. Rawles, I read the article on the housing bubble on SurvivalBlog and would like to add a bit of evidence to the claim.  I currently own a home in Orlando, Florida and haven’t sold in five months.  This is unheard of for that region, but it is just not me all the houses in the area having the same problem.  Here are a couple of quotes from my real estate agent on the Orlando market: “I just returned from a real estate conference in Tampa.  The main topic was the large amount of time listings are sitting the market …

I am now convinced that the housing bubble in The United States is about ready to pop. Once home sellers see that “the Spring buying season” does not reappear along with hay fever this year, they will get panicky. Up to 30% of the homes that have been sold in the past two years have been sold to over-extended speculators who were hoping to “flip” them–taking advantage of the rising house market. The old saying goes “A rising tide raises all ships.” But the inverse is also true. When the flippers realize that they are on a down escalator, they …

Just over a month ago we were marveling at the fact that silver was solidly over $10 per ounce. I just checked the charts at kitco.com, (see: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html) and spot silver was at $12.80 per ounce! (As a data point: The New York close was at $12.05 just four days ago–Friday April 7th. Quite a change since then!)  At the current spot price, means that a $1,000 face value bag of pre-1965 circulated (“junk”) silver U.S. coinage worth $9,152 wholesale. (Assuming 715 ounces in a typical bag of well-worn coins.) The silver market is showing all of the signs of …

Dear Jim: Per your suggestions, I have been doing a lot of research into the American Church Trust Precious-Metals IRA [offered through Swiss America]. However, I have several questions that I would like to ask. [JWR’s replies are in-line, in bold.] 1.) I noticed in a recent post of yours on this subject that you have your IRA backed by Gold American Eagles. Could you explain why you chose gold instead of silver? Because of the much higher “per ounce/per dollar” purchase premium on U.S. Mint Silver Eagles, I prefer U.S. Mint Gold Eagles, in this case.  (At the time …

  I read the first-hand accounts of Argentina’s decline from wealth and prosperity to near lawlessness that were linked to here a while back and they stuck with me. How could a prosperous nation with generally well-regarded policies sink so far so fast? Far more importantly, what caused it, could it happen in other places (i.e. here), and what indicators were missed? Luck would have it that I stumbled across the answers to two of those entirely serendipitously. The answer is actually rather simple: debt. The Argentinean economy was in good shape in the 1990s, it had good growth, good …

Jim, I agree that nothing beats physical bullion and ammunition for real wealth, but there may be something to be said for keeping a store of digital wealth in tact for as long as possible also. My bank has an emergency plan. They mailed me a copy. So I figured I needed to incorporate a plan to keep them out of my life during an economic meltdown. The plan is very simple. I fully intend to eliminate my mortgage with what is left of my IRA on the day before doomsday (or thereabouts). My money will ride out the storm …