Hypothetically, (of course), assume for a moment that the proverbial fan has been hit. Now you have three days….or two weeks….or two months…until the consequences of the event hit where you are. Good luck guessing how long it takes to hit you. Are you as ready as you can be? Are you sure? How do you know?
How and when it hits you, whatever it may be, may be based on three key things: the type/cause of disaster, your proximity to the disaster or populated areas, and the stability of your systems (electricity, water, fuel, and human support systems).
THE CAUSE
What will cause society, and the entire country, to finally tip into chaos? Pick your favorite. Could it be a societal breakdown? Another “lone wolf” attack on a presidential candidate? A candidate/office holder arrested for some oblique financial crime? Perhaps someone trying to influence the election? Maybe the election is rife with fraud. Maybe someone doesn’t like who won the election?
Or, thinking big: Another round of Covid? EMP? WW3? Foreign invasion? Internal attack by some of the millions of illegals that have been allowed in the country?
Even if “It” is caused by nature, like a tornado, forest fire, or a hurricane, things will break down. And the problems could easily spread…starting locally and then all over the country.
The bigger the problem the faster the mess will hit the fan, and the closer to a highly populated area you are, then the faster that you could be caught up in the turmoil.
YOUR LOCATION
For the city dwellers:
You might have three days
How long did it take for riots to engulf Minneapolis, Minnesota, after George Floyd died in police custody? It did not matter what the cause of death was.
How many illegal alien groups, criminal gangs, or religious fanatics are operating in or close to your place of residence?
How many homeless encampments are close to your location?
How many drug addicts will be looking to use the turmoil to get goods to trade for drugs?
For those living in a rural area:
You may have more time, maybe two weeks. But, how close do you live to a major highway that will carry the Golden Hordes? A “safe” distance of 250 miles, at 60 miles an hour gives you about 4 hours of peace once the smarter and more aggressive people start bailing out of the cities. Even if you live in a more remote resort area, there are many people who know of your lakes, woods, and cultivated farm fields. And they are aware that there are a lot of empty cabins and rental places that they can get into, legally or illegally.
If people come into your area as refugees, once they get hungry they will start asking nicely, then start begging, then demanding help, and then trying to take what they want. You may or may not have the resources or the inclination to help.
Logically, off-the-grid people in Alaska or Idaho probably have more time than someone in the suburbs of St. Louis. But there are very few people who would not miss some of the trappings of civilization, even there.
INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS
For all of us:
We are all tied together in many ways, no matter where you live.
How long will it take the power to go out in your area? Where does the power come from? If you are rural and the power comes from a highly populated or metropolitan area, what are the odds of you not being impacted? In our rural area, the power goes out enough during good times to be concerning. And, I have heard that if the power goes out there are contracts in place to direct power from our nearby hydro plant to the nearest metro area.
Is there any chance the cellphone system will stay up? It goes down in many places on a normal day due to “programming errors”, or storms, or power outages.
How much does gas or diesel cost in your area now? In addition to being about 50% higher in price than it was four years ago, the supply chain is likely to be affected almost immediately, so the price will skyrocket. Even with high prices, expect a run on local fuel sources. Expect the situation to degenerate rapidly into NO availability.
Who you gonna call? Once the law starts to break down (which happens constantly already in metro areas today), what is going to stop the criminals who have been trained by experience that the police are not supposed to get in their way, once they decide to expand their operations?
Will the government come to help you? Will the government workers abandon their families to help yours? Even if government employees wanted to help, do they have expertise in anything you need help with?
Bottom line – virtually no matter where you are, you will be affected at some point.
Here are some timing scenarios, once it hits:
Stage 1: one to three days…the seize up – the calm before the storm
Stage 2: first two weeks to 2 months…falling apart – vigilance and a low profile
Stage 3: 2 months to a year…foraging and commerce
Stage 4: long term…back to the pioneer days (for the survivors)
Once it hits there will be little time to catch up to what is needed, so all preps should be in place now!
ARE YOU READY?
Here is an activity that can be undertaken right now to check your readiness before it is tested in real time. As things continue to break down now, you may be tested soon. So, now may be time to check your preps……what you have, what you can get, and who you can trust.
Consider: You shouldn’t wait to test your fire extinguishers until you have a fire…. and you shouldn’t wait until a storm hits to test your generators.
A summary of this key preparation activity:
List what prep items and prep actions you think are important (in order).
Evaluate your supplies readiness, completeness, and skills. Be super critical.
Then, put in place plans to fix the areas you feel you are deficient in.
The overall list of necessary things may seem obvious, but it is not as easy as it sounds to actually ascertain readiness on an item-by-item and detailed basis.
Have you done a serious, complete, aggressive, and physical, review and inspection lately? Could you even find the supplies you already have? Will your stuff work if you do find it?
WHAT TO EVALUATE
A SHTF To-Do List, based on sources like the Rawles List of Lists spreadsheet, includes:
(Note: I put these in order of how I think they will be needed chronologically for me, as well as my level of concern. Everyone should make their own priority list and assessment. The earlier items on the list reflect the Stage 1 time (needed soonest), and the later items may take longer to be required but need to be assessed now.)
Security-General
Security-General
Security-Firearms
Water List
Heat/Fire/Fuel
Food Storage List
Medicines
Batteries and Chargers
Lighting
Power and Generators
Cooking and Food Prep
Personal
Transportation
Networking
Communications
Hunting/Fishing/Trapping
Food Prep
Gardening
Tools
Bartering
Money/Precious Metals
Faith
MY ASSESSMENT PROCESS
This is an example of the “audit questions” based on my hypothetical assessment in order of need, impacted by where we live and what our abilities are. Another person’s list should be tailored to their own circumstances.
The first items to review are things that should be in a person’s possession immediately. These are high-priority items that will be cleared out of stores and unavailable faster than others…like fuel, defensive items, drugs, and batteries.
Security-General
This should start immediately
I checked my rural house for general security.
Are doors and windows all locked or lockable?
Are there extra braces for doors?
Are the windows covered or coverable?
Are surveillance locations in each direction selected? Is there clear line-of-site, for lookouts?
Is the garage locked?
Are the vehicles locked and secured?
Have multiple means of retreat from the property been identified?
Is there a secondary location selected and stocked?
Is there a travel plan? (To Home)
Are vital items such as bicycles/canoe/kayaks secure and accessible?
Security-Firearms
This type of assessment should start immediately. But, hopefully, these items will not be needed immediately (or ever). The use of self-defense weapons is personal. A person must feel comfortable and confident.
Are the appropriate self-defense items easily accessible but not visible, and still secure? Is there a location guide or a map of some type?
Is ammunition sorted by type? Is it safe, clean, dry, and accessible? Is at least some of it hidden?
Are alternate weapons in place, secure, and reachable? This list includes bear spray, mace, knives, and stun guns.
Evaluate: from each room in the house: If a crashing noise is heard somewhere in the house, can it be ascertained that there is access to self-defense from the listening location?
Heat/Fire/Fuel
This is needed before bad weather sets in. We live in the frozen north. (Heat is only needed six months of the year.) Heat could be an issue within hours. No fuel, no heat. No means of using fuel, no heat. No large power source, no furnace.
How much liquid propane (LP) gas is in the big tank?
Are the 20-pound and 1-pound propane tanks accessible? Are the adapters available?
Is the wood stove operational and clean?
Is the chimney clean?
Is there a means to light the stove?
Is there ample firewood cut? Can it be easily transported to the wood stove?
Is there ample kindling?
Is the stored firewood dry?
Is the gas fireplace ready? Can it be used without power? Is it worth it to burn LP for heat instead of cooking? This depends on the situation. If the LP supply (no more trucks) is cut off, then LP should not be wasted.
Is enough gasoline stored to fire the generator for a reasonable amount of time?
Is it stabilized? Can you get more?
Is there an ample supply of white gas, kerosene, or other fuels?
(To be concluded tomorrow, in Part 2.)