Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at currencies and precious metals in times of war. (See the Precious Metals section and the Forex & Cryptos section.)
Precious Metals:
Gold spiked versus paper currencies early this week. On Monday, there was an intraday high of $3,417.60 per Troy ounce. But on Tuesday, after an announced (but fragile) ceasefire, spot gold corrected to $3,307.50. By Thursday morning, gold was back up $3,338.40 and silver was at a respectable $36.84. Note how the silver-to-gold ratio is gaining.
Whenever there is a major international crisis, the real worth(lessness) of paper currencies is revealed. Consistently, in crises, there is a well-justifiable “flight to safety” to the precious metals. Gold and silver’s last really big bull market run was in the late 1970s, which was also a time of heightened tension in the Middle East. (Do you remember the lengthy Iran Hostage Crisis?) In U.S. Dollar terms, spot gold was up 22.9% in 1977, 37.1% in 1978, and 126.2% in 1979.
If the truce holds for a week, then I suspect that the precious metals market prices will revert to their status quo ante bellum. Even if there is a successful ceasefire and a true end to the Iran-Israel 12-Day War, I don’t believe that we are anywhere near the end of the current precious metals bull market. – JWR
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In The Financial Times: Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245bn of gold home from US.
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Gary Wagner: Safe-haven assets retreat as ceasefire triggers risk-on market rotation.
Economy & Finance:
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rally to put records back in sight.
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Will the Capital Gains Tax increase to 9.9% cause business to leave Washington state?
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At Zero Hedge: Forget About Iran, the Real Danger to the Markets Is Coming From Japan.
Commodities:
The Strait of Hormuz: What It Is, Where It Is, and Why It Matters.
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Oil extends losses after Israel agrees to Trump’s ceasefire proposal.
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Crude Oil Analysis: WTI Crude Drops Sharply Amid Middle East Conflict.
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From OilPrice News:
Monetary Theory & Monetary Policy:
Some interesting excerpts from a lecture: Money Did Not Come From Barter – It Came From Blood Feuds. JWR’s Comments: This 7-year-old video magically (algorithmically) popped up in my YouTube window on Monday, June 23, 2025. Coincidentally, gold — that “barbarous relic’ — had just spiked to $3,400 per Troy ounce. Some ground truth for you: Cash is trash. In the long run, we are all Zimbabweans. Some governments are just in more of a hurry to rob the populace than others. Precious metals are the eternal safe haven. Gold and silver will still hold value when all of the currencies of the 21st Century are deemed worthless scrap paper. My advice is to invest and hedge in tangibles. Government-issued currencies are doomed to failure because politicians chronically overspend. They inevitably destroy the purchasing power of their make-believe “money”. – JWR
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Will the World Ever Return to the Gold Standard?
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In The Globe & Mail: U.S. futures price in more rate cuts in 2026 than Fed’s latest projections.
Forex & Cryptos:
Euro approaches 4-year peak after Israel-Iran ceasefire.
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A Key Gauge Signals Waning Demand for US Dollar in $7.5 Trillion Market.
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US dollar declines after Israel-Iran ceasefire and drop in oil prices.
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‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’ author says he’s waiting for Bitcoin to crash.
Tangibles Investing:
Major housing expert predicts huge change to mortgage rates in 2026.
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Our featured Pre-1899 Gun Of The Week, at Elk Creek Company: Winchester M1886 .45-90 Short Rifle Limited Edition — New In Box — No FFL!
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!