Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at expected crashes in commercial and residential real estate. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

What To Expect For Gold If We Enter A Deflationary Period.

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Another, at Piepenburg, Rule and Rickards Agree: Gold’s Role Rises as Dollar Hegemony Falls.

Economy & Finance:

Billions of dollars are flowing out of Chinese markets in a ‘seismic’ change in capital flows despite a flurry of actions to shore up confidence. A quote:

“Over the weekend, Chinese authorities halved the tax charged on stock trades, called a “stamp duty,” and lowered the amount of collateral a trader has to deposit in order to borrow money to invest in stocks in a bid to “boost investor confidence,” according to a Google translation of a statement from China’s Ministry of Finance. Beijing also asked some mutual funds to avoid being net sellers of equities, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources.

Despite the moves, foreign investors continue to flee Chinese markets. With Beijing cracking down on foreign consulting firms amid tensions between the U.S. and China and repeatedly requiring investment firms to avoid selling stocks when markets look shaky, investors seem increasingly nervous about the risks of holding capital in China.

In the first half of this year, the number of active China-focused hedge funds fell for the first time in more than a decade. And in the second quarter, direct investment liabilities—a measure of foreign direct investment into China—slumped 87% from a year ago to a record low of $4.9 billion, according to figures released by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Friday.”

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National Australia Bank adds mean speech to debanking criteria.

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Biden admin mulls more intervention in the market with new overtime pay ‘rules’.


EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook: Electricity, Coal, and Renewables.

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Statista: Energy commodity price index worldwide from 2013 to 2022, with a forecast until 2024.

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Propane: Inventory position has changed price curve.

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And at OilPrice News: Massive Copper Theft Scandal Sends Shockwaves Through Metal Market.

Inflation/Deflation Watch:

61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — inflation is still squeezing budgets.

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Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Jumps Higher In July, Wage Growth Slowed.

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Inflation is Back on Target.

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Survey: Higher inflation could persist through at least 2024.

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Trading Economics: Global Inflation Rates.

Forex & Cryptos:

Teletrade update for September 1st.

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At Currency Thoughts: August 2023 in Figures.

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CNBC: First bitcoin ETF could be coming soon as court rules in favor of Grayscale over SEC.

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Bitcoin Whales Load Up With $1.5 Billion Worth Of BTC Amidst Price Uncertainty.

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Robinhood bought back Sam Bankman-Fried’s stake from US gov’t for $606M.

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UK’s Travel Rule comes into effect, could halt certain crypto transfers.

Tangibles Investing:

AirBnB Bubble Bursts: Investor Home Purchases Crash 45% In Biggest Drop Since 2008.

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Crash? What Crash? Why Commercial Real Estate Hasn’t Gone Bust…Yet

Here is an excerpt:

“With or without a commercial real estate crash, many observers still expect a downturn.

Commercial real estate services and investment firm CBRE predicts that Fed interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation will lead to a recession later this year, which will in turn result in less real estate investment and leasing.

“The drop will be gradual and bumpy,” said CBRE in its latest forecast. “The economy should stabilize by the start of 2024 but the downturn’s impact on real estate will linger until employment growth resumes.”

Banks are already beginning to charge off delinquent commercial real estate loans. The rate of charge-offs indicates the market’s direction because it means borrowers can’t afford the loans. For the first quarter of 2023, the delinquency rate is 0.95%, according to CFRA Research.”

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USN&WR: When Will the Housing Market Crash?


SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!