After I left active duty, I went to college. Depending upon my schedule, I sometimes found myself with a lot of time in between classes. To pass the time away, I would often go through reels of microfiche of old newspapers. I liked to pick historic events and look at the papers in the weeks and months leading up to those events. When it comes to Wars, there seems to be a common theme, that is “Saber Rattling”. Today, just like the 1930s, we see the media write the same headlines, just with different countries. Russia was “just saber rattling” until they invaded Ukraine, just like China is “saber rattling” until they invade Taiwan and other neighbors China does not like. Those were the same headlines back in the 1930s just with Germany and Japan as the countries. When we see the term “saber rattling” we should consider that a warning, no different than walking in the outdoors and hearing the rattling of a rattlesnake’s tail or the wailing of a tornado siren. When you hear a warning you should act!
Growing up in the Cold War era, there was a seemingly constant fear of nuclear war. The massive stockpiles of nuclear weapons meant that if a missile was launched there would be a massive retaliation sent in response by the targeted bloc (Warsaw Pact or NATO). We have gone about a generation without really having to fear a nuclear war, however now we have a whole generation that doesn’t know how to deal with the threat of nuclear war. We have leaders who believe that the reasons we did not have a nuclear war during the Cold War, are still relevant and will be the same reason we will not have a nuclear war in the near future. In the Cold War era, any military action directly by Russia or the US upset the status quo and risked a spiral into the use of nuclear weapons. There was a concerted effort by both the US and Russia not to upset the status quo directly. So this led to the US and Russia using proxies for their military actions. In today’s post-Cold War era, with new strategic adversaries and with different cultural beliefs in play, we can not assume that the same Cold War rules apply.
China has not minced words about Taiwan being sovereign Chinese territory. The “One China” US policy would also support China’s claim that Taiwan is Chinese territory. China has started to use Fifth Generation warfare, just like Russia, to start their invasion of Taiwan by deploying military forces for “war games”. But in reality these forces are creating a blockade. Russia has shown that they will use their military to meet their strategic goals. Clearly, the rules of the Cold War have been thrown out.
What is still applicable to war is the impacts on the home front. A historical look back at World War Two on the Homefront will provide us with clues as to what challenges we will likely face in our future as the war drums beat louder and louder.
The provisions of the Defense Production Act will be implemented at the first shot, if not sooner. Unlike the 1940s, America doesn’t have a lot of manufacturing capability, what we do have will all quickly be turned into making items for the war effort. Many of the lathes, drill presses, and milling machines that were used during the early US industrial Revolution and World War II are still around today in basements, garages, and barns throughout the US. These machines are no longer used by our industries but by farmers and hobbyists. There will be a concerted effort to find and secure these machines and those that know how to use them for the new war effort.
Just like in the last world war, there will be massive drives to collect scrap metals, lard, and other items that can be used for the war effort. [See the photo of scrap metal collection at the top of this article.] Considering the different types of technologies used in today’s weapons, we could see drives to collect old computer and other electronics to salvage their parts. I think there will also be a move to secure 3D printers as well. Silver, lead, and gold collection may also be done. Silver and gold for the use in circuit boards and lead for bullets.
There will be little purchasing of consumer goods. Why? First, no goods will come from China. Asian nations friendly to the US will be asked to help the US and its allies with the production of war materiel and thus will not fill the void of consumer goods left by China. If you thought supply chain issues during the last few years were bad, then stand by. You haven’t seen anything yet.
Like the last World War, there will be exceptions for those in the agricultural sector. However, the issue of availability of equipment, parts, and supplies from overseas will still be a limiting factor. I suspect, that what equipment, parts and supplies that are available, will be allocated to the largest producing farms and ranches first. That will leave many smaller farms and ranches without parts and supplies to keep their farms operating. With all the current supply chain issues, I have tried to stock extra spark plugs, oils, hydraulic fluids, filters, belts, grease, and spare parts, like forks for the hay rake and tedder. I am also stocking more Hex and carriage bolts in larger diameters to make repairs to farm equipment that we have.
The big question is whether or not the powers that be allow small family farms, homesteaders, and self-sufficient families to keep the food that is grown or raised on family farms? It will be rather easy for the government to figure out who is raising animals and growing food that may be ordered to be sold to the government for the war effort. Consider what England enacted during World War II. England enacted what they called the “War Agricultural Executive Committees”. These committees were established at the local level and were empowered to enforce the productively goals of the English government. The local committees could tell farmers what fields to cultivate and if these committees did not feel that the farmers were doing a good job and increasing production, then the committees could seize the operation of that farm.
The United States has always exported a lot of food. The rationing of food during World War Two was so that we could feed the UK and other Allies that could not support themselves agriculturally. Rationing of food, depending upon government intervention, won’t be an issue in rural areas where it is grown and raised, however in the suburbs and urban areas that rely upon shipped-in food, food rationing will be a major issue.
When I go to auctions, garage sales and flea markets I often see old World War Two ration books. Just a casual non-scientific observation is that the ration books with addresses in rural areas (the old RD- rural delivery) had more unused ration stamps than those with city addresses. The inference is that those in the city had to use their ration books for things like eggs, meat, and butter, compared to those in the rural areas that raised their own chickens for eggs and meat and had a family cow for milk and butter.
During World War Two the United States didn’t have a food shortage due to production but rather by the self-imposed rationing efforts. In the next war that may not be the same. First, there are not as many “family” farms in the US as there were in World War Two. In 1940 there were about 6 million farms in the US with over a billion acres of land. Today, there are just over 2 million farms with a little more than 895 million acres. Since the US agriculture has transitioned into large corporate farming operations the ability to set aside food for the family will not be possible, even for many rural families. Labor will also be an issue, especially when modern farming implements break down and cannot be repaired.
In England, during World War Two, the English government established the “Women’s Land Army” (WLA). Early in the war effort the WLA recruited women but later in the war they conscripted women into the WLA. Most of the women in the WLA were housed in hostels and even wore uniforms. When repair parts for the agricultural industry are not readily available human labor will ultimately be the fix. So if a corn combine is down, perhaps human labor will fill the void. Wars are fought by the young and now with “wokism” that will probably include females. If 18 to 25 year olds are drafted into the military who will be “drafted” to work in agriculture, like the WLA? One thought is anyone receiving “welfare” or “unemployment” will definitely be subject to conscription.
During the First World War, the UK and Canada both used children to keep agriculture going. In the UK children as young as 11 years old were excused from schooling to work on farms. The Canadians established the “Soldiers of the Soil” or “SOS” that used school-aged children for farm work. The good news is, that during World War One and Two, those programs in the UK, US, and Canada, to help increase agricultural output, for the most part were based on capitalism and the workers and land owners/farmers were paid. But that isn’t always the model.
In Israel, even before it became a state after World War Two, there were Kibbutz communes established using utopian socialist ideology. Also, POWs have been used by many countries to help with agriculture during war. In the United States and the UK POWs worked alongside civilians on farms. This also means that in rural areas you may see a military contingent that guards and transports POWs in rural areas. The question becomes what if our volunteer efforts to support the next war are not enough, will forced labor is imposed?
So how does the “little guy” survive the coming lack of everything? This is easy to answer stock everything and be prepared to fix and modify things that break. Yep, easier said than done. But that is the most simplistic answer and the same answer that some people before us have had to endure to survive as well.
(To be concluded tomorrow, in Part 2.)