Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we further examine the ammunition shortage. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

See Steven Cochran’s monthly precious metals recap report, also posted today.

Economy & Finance:

Personal income leaps 10% in January thanks to stimulus, but inflation still in check

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At Zero Hedge: Rabo: We Are About To Lose All Price Discovery – And Never Go Back Again Without A Systemic Crash

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Over at Alt-Market: Online Furniture, Grocery, Clothing Sales Explode as Brick & Mortar Melts Down

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At Wolf Street: Just Don’t Expect “Pent-up Demand” from Consumers. Here’s Why

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Security flaw detected for the second time in credit cards

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Reader H.L. suggested this: Blowing Up The “Everything” Bubble

Commodities:

The Financial Times reports: Copper breaches $9,000 a tonne in bet on economic bounce and supply limits

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OilPrice News reports: Reuters Poll: Bankers See Steady Rise In Oil Prices

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Charles Hugh Smith: Oil and Debt: Why Our Financial System Is Unsustainable

Forex & Cryptos:

Next, over at Currency ThoughtsMany Data Released Today as Inflation Fears Continue

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Zimbabwe’s annual inflation cools off by 41.04 bps in February.  Now it is “only” 321.59%, annually.

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Bitcoin Analyst Explains Why Traders Should Buy Altcoins All March

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Yellen sounds warning about ‘extremely inefficient’ bitcoin. JWR’s Comment:  This sounds a lot like a used car dealer badmouthing his competition, across the street.  It is safe to assume that sovereign cryptos will be launched by at least 20 nations in the next two to three years.  When they do, look for them to do more than just badmouthing. Those nations won’t want competition from private and opaque cryptos. They will attempt to tax and regulate them out of existence.

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A video debate: Bitcoin in 2021: Unstoppable force or dangerous bubble? | Cointelegraph Crypto Duel

Tangibles Investing:

The American ammunition and reloading components market has developed into a dysfunctional feedback loop that has severe and chronic shortages. The majority of American gun shops now have virtually empty ammunition shelves. Any restocked ammo in any popular calibers is snapped up as soon as it hits the shelves. Prices for many calibers have doubled or tripled. In many places, the price of primers has quintupled! Even standard birdshot shotgun shells are getting scarce.  Ammunition manufacturers have multi-million dollar order backlogs that now stretch out 18 months, or longer. At this stage, those of us who stocked up during the Times of Plenty are well-provisioned. But the average short-sighted American gun owner is getting desperate. Effectively, they are now shopping at the Monty Python Cheese Shop. Please try to help your neighbors by selling them some of your excess ammo, at a reasonable price.

If anything, I can foresee prices going even higher, before plateauing, perhaps this coming summer. The law of supply and demand is inescapable.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




63 Comments

      1. As is so often true, I am fascinated by how similar peoples’ thinking is. The article could easily have been written by a lefty economist. Note the paragraph I excerpted.

        Blowing Up The “Everything” Bubble
        by Tyler Durden
        Tuesday, Feb 23, 2021 – 15:10

        However, ironically, while it appears that Americans are far more wealthy, in reality, it is only a small fraction of the population that has benefitted. A point we made in “The Fed Made The Top 10% Richer.”

        Carry on

  1. Serious Vaccination Digital Bio-Certificate News:

    Leaders From the European Union Have Decided This Week That a Digital Vaccination Certificate Must be Ready for Roll-Out by This Summer

    https://humansarefree.com/2021/02/european-union-digital-vaccination-certificate-must-be-ready-this-summer.html

    Italian researchers create world’s 1st ‘smart tattoo’ using OLED tech

    https://www.rt.com/news/516758-worlds-first-smart-tattoo/

    Don’t be deceived Johnson and Johnson’s vaccine STILL genetically modifies your genes inside your cells. How do you know exactly what they’re putting into your body? Why should you trust them? Really? Government officials lie all of the time!!

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/fda-panel-unanimously-endorses-jj-covid-vaccine

    https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/slippery-slope-vaccine-passports-are-technical-ethical-minefield

  2. Why would I sell my neighbors my ammo? I prepared they didn’t. There’s no life threatening crisis calling for a need that requires them to have anything to stay alive and even then again I prepared while they played and bought Harleys and Sea Doos.
    Tell ya what you throw up them cases of 5.56 up on Elk Creek there and I’ll point them in your direction.

        1. you might want to hold on to that old ammo… I could foresee the day someone trades a can of dinki-di dog food for a couple of rounds.
          (I usually find a couple rounds of 22lr on the ground at the range that people have ejected because of a FTF or missfire… those go into the future “trade” bag)

      1. I’m guessing since the price point is the determining factor your wanting to gain profit. That’s understandable as everyone is in different places and it could benefit you. I’ve zero issue with that.

        1. Keep in mind that tangibles (ammo, food, etc.) have intrinsic value. If you “sell high”, you might want to look what you want to invest that fiat currency, with no intrinsic value, into. Have a plan that transcends greed. Otherwise, you may find inflation biting you in your sitting muscles.

          Carry on

          1. Very good point. The term “sitting muscles” is a new one to me, but the concept is not. Had a good chuckle over that one. So very true and I believe that the wise investors will separate the true preppers / survivalists from the “wanna be” types, RINOS, “middle of the road mindset”, etc.

    1. I am once again reminded of….

      At that time the kingdom of heaven will be like ten virgins who took their lamps and went out to meet the bridegroom. Five of them were foolish and five were wise. The foolish ones took their lamps but did not take any oil with them. The wise, however, took oil in jars along with their lamps. The bridegroom was a long time in coming, and they all became drowsy and fell asleep. At midnight the cry rang out: ‘Here’s the bridegroom! come out to meet him!’ Then all the virgins woke up and trimmed their lamps. The foolish ones said to the wise, ‘Give us some of your oil; our lamps are going out.’ ‘No,’ they replied, ‘there may not be enough for both us and you. Instead, go to those who sell oil and buy some for yourselves.’ But while they were on their way to buy the oil, the bridegroom arrived. The virgins who were ready went in with him to the wedding banquet. And the door was shut. Later the others also came. ‘Sir! Sir!’ they said. ‘Open the door for us!’ But he replied, ‘I tell you the truth, I don’t know you.’ Therefore keep watch, because you do not know the day or the hour.” Matthew 25:1-13

      We all know that the ten virgins speaks of Christians and that half did not properly prepare for the Bridegroom (Christ) and that only half were allowed entry to the wedding banquet(Heaven), however as I was reading this passage last year it struck me that a parallel could be drawn with the virgins in the days of Christ to those that didn’t prepare in modern times. I view the Bible as a teaching instrument, but full of mysteries and I wonder what others think of these thoughts?

      As I write this I recall that yesterday while talking to a friend at Church he mention he was unable to find Primers so I told him to stop by and I had what he needed and was happy to give them to him. He is after all, my friend. Point being that while I believe the above thoughts about being prepared, it’s hard to say no to a friend. Really tough times might change that.

      Blessing to all on SB

      1. I’ll take care of my own. “A neighbor” is going to be a no. A friend, a part of my team will have what they need. “The neighbor” who played as the grasshopper will receive nothing from the ant.

        1. if you are selling to someone late in the game charge todays prices

          there are a lot of neighbors that are biden voters, i wouldnt sell anything to at any price, this assumption that all neighbors are on your side….

    2. My neighbor wanted to take his kid shooting, but couldn’t find any 22lr for his rifle. I gave him a ‘brick’ of 500 rds that still had the Walmart price tag in the amount of $4.96 from 20 years ago. He took his kid to the range and shot maybe 100 rds and sold the remaining 400 rds to someone in the next stall for $40.00 and came home and told me about it 🙁

      1. Gold Prospector, I applaud you for trying to do a good deed and give your neighbor kid the opportunity to shoot his .22. It sounds like your neighbor didn’t learn a thing from your generosity. Not only did he get rid of 400 rounds he could have used another time, he also profited from your gift and was stupid enough to tell you about it. Some people just don’t get it, and he certainly doesn’t.

        1. Scott – That was the best $5.00 I ever wasted. Not only did it show this dumb goy (me) what kind of person he is, now the entire neighborhood knows. Unfortunately, he showed his kid that it is ok to reward kindness this way.

          1. Well said, GP. Your example, as time goes on, may influence the kid. He could learn generosity from you, since his dad seems clueless.

            Carry on

          2. “goy” … “he showed his kid that it is ok to reward kindness this way”

            (guessing) he doesn’t see you as a fellow human being kind or accommodating to him. he sees you (and the entire neighborhood) as a talking animal to be utilized to his benefit. he tells you what he did because he’s boasting, believing you won’t get it. the kid will be raised to see you (and the entire neighborhood) the same way.

  3. I believe Mark Finchem is wise to pursue this. The Left has used too often, and in the harshest ways, incendiary language against anyone who challenges or opposes them. This should not be allowed to stand, and should be vigorously challenged.

    “Arizona Republican Representative Mark Finchem Is Suing Arizona Democrats for Malice After They Accused Him of Treason for Reporting on Suspected Election Fraud”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/03/arizona-republican-representative-mark-finchem-suing-arizona-democrats-malice-accused-treason-reporting-suspected-election-fraud/

  4. This article from the posts above is an interesting read… Price discovery is a critical element of healthy, functioning economies. It is absent (or very nearly so) in our economy today.

    Posted at ZeroHedge: “Rabo: We Are About To Lose All Price Discovery – And Never Go Back Again Without A Systemic Crash”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabo-we-are-about-lose-all-price-discovery-and-never-go-back-again-without-systemic-crash

    From the article: “On a personal detour, I studied transition economics, which was the path for how inefficient command economies could become efficient capitalist ones. I also lived in very post-Soviet economies where shops didn’t have basic essentials, people were drinking themselves to death out of despair, the state didn’t seem to function in many areas, and whole industries were collapsing due to structural shifts nobody seemed to understand – as some people got very, very rich. Ironically, this seems to be a relevant background for global markets today.”

  5. Another matter at hand… This really concerned me because it compromises one of the tools at the disposal of our military to protect our troops while also addressing other security threats. I would be interested in the perspectives of others in the SB community.

    Posted to The Gateway Pundit: “Biden Allows “60 Minutes” to Release Military Imagery Secrets that Saved US Lives”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/03/biden-allows-60-minutes-release-military-imagery-secrets-saved-us-lives/

    1. We need to pray, pray, pray that the Xiden/JoeBama Administration doesn’t destroy the country while we work to restore the Republic. I watched the President’s (the real President) CPAC speech yesterday. No new party. He’s going to work to rebuild the GOP and maybe run again. He’s starting his own PAC and funnily enough donations are encouraged to go to his PAC, not through the RNC! HAHA. I’m disappointed, but I understand from a builder’s perspective the infrastructure of that party is already in place. I became a “non-associated” person after the January 6th setup and Pence’s approval of the election results. I felt massively betrayed by the GOP and no longer wanted to be a party to the party. We’ll see how it goes. Meanwhile, prep, prep, prep.

      Good article: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2021/02/28/the-big-ugly-begins-president-trump-targets-the-decepticons-those-gope-establishment-politicians-who-need-to-be-removed/

      My elderly mother had the 2nd covid vaccine this past week. She said she felt fine the day after, but we’ll see how that goes. I’m so frustrated that I have no say in her care.

      1. SaraSue!
        Agreed… I was also terribly disappointed by the decision not to pursue a 3rd party, but I am cautiously (as in very cautiously) optimistic that the MAGA movement can take over control of the existing Republican party. We should not lose momentum in this effort.

        Also! I thought it was brilliant that President Trump (my President in Exile during what Steve Bannon calls this time of “Occupation”) set up the PAC and maintains his own site for fundraising. A wise man he is!

        Great article you included from The Conservative Treehouse. Thank you for sharing this!

        We did also take another blow with regard to the Supreme Court. Disappointing although not truly surprising. We must turn ourselves to the legislatures and otherwise to the states including the Attorneys General with regard to election integrity. We must also remember the key precinct level work.

        “Supreme Court Rejects Sidney Powell’s Election Fraud Petitions without Further Comment”

        https://lawandcrime.com/supreme-court/supreme-court-rejects-sidney-powells-election-fraud-petitions-without-further-comment/

        At the same time, we did have a victory! John Fredericks launched a radio station in Atlanta: WMLB AM 1690

        https://georgiastarnews.com/2021/03/01/the-john-fredericks-radio-network-expands-to-atlanta-monday-syndicates-the-doug-collins-show/

        Be sure to catch Doug Collins there alongside Steve Bannon and others.

        We must not tire, give up, or give in. Our efforts must continue, and we will be victorious. The Left wants to dispirit and dishearten us, but we cannot let this happen. It doesn’t mean we don’t feel disappointment in a decision like those coming down from the Supreme Court, but we must rise above that disappointment and continue in all our good efforts to restore, preserve, and protect the Republic.

        1. This not-so-Supreme Court is making the same sad mistakes the FDR court made. The FDR court feared FDR stacking the court. So this court, like the FDR court, is making bad decisions out of fear, instead of good decisions because it’s the right thing to do. John Roberts, neocon-possible-pedophile-swamp creature, is a disgrace to the court and should resign after Trump or Kristi Noem (you should really listen to her CPAC speach) becomes the next president.

          This court also fears court stacking. Once it starts, it won’t stop. The Dimms do it, then the Rethugs will do it. I’m with Ted Cruz on this one, a constitutional amendment to keep the Supreme Court at nine and no more than nine.

          1. Agreed, Charles K. The not-so-Supreme Court should be limited to 9 with an amendment to the Constitution. There are few changes I would made to the Constitutional architecture as designed by the Founding Fathers, but this would be one.

            Today’s news brought another disappointment on this front… After denying the previous cases related to voter and election fraud, they have agreed to hear this one:

            Posted at The Gateway Pundit: “Supreme Court Agrees to Hear Arizona Case that Could Put New Limits on Voting Rights Lawsuits — But Refused Trump Campaign Election Cases”

            https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/03/supreme-court-agrees-hear-arizona-case-put-new-limits-voting-rights-lawsuits-refused-trump-campaign-election-cases/

            I do not know if this will have an impact on legislation being proposed in at least three of the 2020 “swing” states to restore election integrity, but wonder if it might be twisted to try to affect those efforts. We’ll see.

            Seeing this news, I am thinking about your post regarding fear that the Court will be stacked. I have been wondering about this as well.

            This concern makes it even more important that Liberty-Loving Conservative MAGA candidates take over the Republican Party, send the RINOs packing (and as many Democrat seats as can be overturned alongside ’em), and overtake both the House and the Senate. We have a few short months until the next election cycle takes hold for mid-terms.

            I sure do like Kristi Noem. Also like Ron DeSantis very, very much. I wonder about a Trump ticket with one of them as the next Vice President.

    2. T of A

      OMG. There is no excuse to justify that.

      I’ve been concerned since the election that something like this or worse would happen.
      The total disregard for the lives of our military demonstrated by Obama appears to have filtered over to Biden.

      At this time I would recommend against anyone entering the military. It’s not like you are defending the country, but rather being used as a disposable pawn for a greedy and corrupt politicians.

      1. We’re so early into the current regime and what Steve Bannon is calling “The Occupation”. I fear that this is just the beginning, and that the policies of the Left will devastate our national security and the safety of our troops.

  6. re:
    selling/trading manufactured goods (such as ammunition or firearms)

    OK, let’s talk this through using our words, shall we?

    Show of hands:
    * How many see supply disruptions?
    * How many see manufacturers hit by a) new ‘laws’, b) new law-suits, and c) rioters destroying manufacturing plants?
    * How many realize the considerable investment by business-owners prior to earning a profit?
    * How many realize potential business-owners moving their investments toward less exposure?
    * How many see the costs of trucking increasing daily, including trucker warnings they may be unable to serve urbanites because of city dangers?

    Prior to ‘going gray’ in June 2020, BisonPrepper James M Dakin strongly advised against getting rid of any manufactured goods.
    Snippets of BisonPrepper turn up now and then, collections of his daily columns are available on Amazon for a couple-three bucks.

    Show of hands:
    * How many believe ‘anything I have is all I will get’?

    How many meals do civil neighbors need to miss before they turn uncivil?
    How many threats from a) the government agents or b) criminals such as home-invaders (some overlap) before civil neighbors snitch on me?

    1. “How many believe ‘anything I have is all I will get’?”

      (shakes head) anything they let you keep is all you will get. and like it! (and yes, liking it will in fact be mandated.)

  7. T of A

    OMG. There is no excuse to justify that.

    I’ve been concerned since the election that something like this or worse would happen.
    The total disregard for the lives of our military demonstrated by Obama appears to have filtered over to Biden.

    At this time I would recommend against anyone entering the military. It’s not like you are defending the country, but rather being used as a disposable pawn for a greedy and corrupt politicians.

  8. Regarding crypto currency here is an article that basically affirms what others have said. Some governments/authorities pretend that they don’t want digital currency when they really do. They will let private companies do the work of pushing the acceptance to the people. Then some “crisis or abuse” will take place and governments will step in to regulate it and dispose of competition. I have not listened to the video, so I can’t speak to that content.

    https://usawatchdog.com/rule-of-law-collapsed-in-usa-martin- armstrong

    Regarding ammo. A local gun store here has some ammo but will not sell unless you buy a gun. Their reason is if they don’t have any ammo for the guns they sell, no one will buy the guns. I’m sure for their best customers they might make an exception, but alas I’m not one of them.

  9. This has been a concern for quite some time… It should be investigated fully and transparently. Unfortunately, I do not see that happening with the current regime.

    Posted at The Gateway Pundit: “EXCLUSIVE: New Evidence Shows U.S. Government and the American Scientific Establishment Involved in Cover Up of COVID-19’s Origin”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/03/exclusive-new-evidence-shows-u-s-government-american-scientific-establishment-involved-cover-covid-19s-origin/

  10. I need some building materials.

    I’ll be accepting $1 FRN per cartridge of 9mm FMJ target grade ammo this weekend at the Chehalis Gun show.

    Or 2 US Silver dollars per box of 50 cartridges.

    At the fast food drive thru a burger combo now is over $11 FRN.

    The FRN devaluation is in full gear.

    Interest rates will be kept low because the electronic FRN presses are in full operation. Quantity ILO quality.

          1. I read the Buy Nothing project’s BLM statement.

            Barf City. They rant about racism and they perpetuate it.

            I have two Black cousins. I have a Korean niece and nephew. I have a Chinese niece.

            Equality for all is paramount for Christians. All lives matter equally, including the Unborn.

          2. “We base our decisions on reliable reporting from responsible journalists”. (laugh) yeah, they have the people skills, but I doubt many of those here would be accepted by them. but yeah, this is the kind of thing that will be needed in the coming times.

  11. Be on alert, Nevada!

    Posted to The Gateway Pundit: “After Bogus Voter Records Uncovered Last Week by Steven Crowder, Nevada Secretly Updates Its Voter Rolls (Outside of State Policies)”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/03/bogus-records-uncovered-last-week-nevada-secretly-updates-voter-roles-outside-state-policies/

    Eyes open. Be fully informed and know the laws of your state. Contact your election authorities, and your state legislators. Restore and protect election integrity.

  12. Wheatley Fisher!
    From your post: “Equality for all is paramount for Christians.”

    You are right. 100%. I have always believed this too.

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