Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the risk of substantially higher inflation in 2021 and beyond. (See both the Economy & Finance and the Forex & Cryptos section.)

Precious Metals:

Black Swans, Ordinary Swans And Metals

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Silver Price Could Double Again Within 90 Days of Time

Economy & Finance:

Inflation ahead! Global Macro Indicators For January 2021. (Seeking Alpha.) JWR’s Comment: The included FRED Money Supply chart says it all!  Here is a snippet:

“Specifically, the policy response to the covid-19 related economic recession has led to an unprecedented increase in money supply. More importantly, the policymakers discovered the effectiveness of money supply as a tool – which makes it more likely that liquidity expansion will continue to be the key global-macro indicator in a foreseeable future.”

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Biden’s one-two stimulus punch

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Here is an Anthony Pompliano podcast: Inflation Is Killing The American Dream

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At Wolf Street: Having Already Dropped for Years, US Auto Sales Plunged to 1970s Level in 2020

Commodities:

OilPrice News reports: Asian Buyers Rush To Secure North Sea Oil After Saudi Surprise Cut

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The view from Arab News, of Dubai: What is in store for equities, fixed income and commodities in 2021?

Equities:

Tom Lloyd at Seeking Alpha: SPY Still Bullish, Model Portfolio Fully Invested

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Reflation nation? This time, post-crisis tailwinds favor banks, and the economy

Forex & Cryptos:

US Dollar as “Global Reserve Currency” amid Fed’s QE and US Government Deficits: Dollar Hegemony in Decline. The article’s opening paragraphs:

“The US dollar’s position as the dominant global reserve currency is an immensely important factor in supporting the ballooning US government debt, the Fed’s drunken money-printing, and Corporate America’s ambition to offshore production to cheap countries, thereby creating huge and ever-growing trade deficits. They all have become dependent on the willingness of other central banks to hold large amounts of dollar-denominated paper. But from the looks of things, those central banks might be getting a little nervous.

The global share of US-dollar-denominated exchange reserves – US Treasury securities, US corporate bonds, US mortgage-backed securities, etc. held by foreign central banks – fell to 60.5% in the third quarter, according to the IMF’s COFER data release. This is the lowest since 1995. Over the past six years, the dollar’s share has been dropping at a rate of about 1 percentage point per year…”

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British Pound Forecast: Sterling Rally Falters at Trend Resistance

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Weakness continues: USD/CAD Forecast Jan. 4-8 2021 – Investors eye employment releases

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The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – January 10th, 2021

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Jameson Lopp: Bitcoin 2020 Annual Review

Tangibles Investing:

From a Kentucky television news broadcast: WKYT Investigates: Ammo shortages

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Reader H.L. suggested this: U-Haul Reveals 2020 Migration Trends As Pandemic And Taxes Take Toll.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




35 Comments

  1. Fuel is going to take a big hit under the new administration with taxes and dropping our energy dependence.
    Now is the time to fill up those farm tanks. It’ll save some money later. If you were going to add to your personal supplies the same applies that it’s time.
    Use a good stabilizer like PRI-G or D. Don’t skip or skimp on it because it is an investment

  2. chuckle, snicker. Biden’s one – two punch to save america and it’s people. Pretty much ( as I see it ) everything that Biden wants to do is pretty much the same thing that Trump wanted to do or tried to do and was stonewalled by the dems at every turn, now Biden takes credit for saving the world. It is pretty much happening the way I thought it would. And lets not forget K Harris ( the next president ) on she will “SAVE ” the world and remake it. Sorry people. I suppose I’ll be banned here too.

    1. I was referring to magazines over 10 round capacity. Place your first emphasis on any imported gun magazines (HK/SIG/Galil/AK/FN/et cetera), since those will probably be banned from importation via Executive Order, as soon as early February.

      1. I don’t mean this to sound snarky at all. … But, also, people should considering ordering a few P-Mags from MagPul. They have some 50 round drum magazines, too. (for some guns)

        Today’s review from Pat Cascio said: “Both guns came with a MagPul PMag 30-round magazine, and I believe these are the best of the best when it comes to AR magazines – period! The US military has finally figured this out, and is phasing in these mags to all branches these days.”
        *****
        *****
        ~Years ago, I actually spoke (on the phone) with a gunsmith at ‘Jam O Matic’ firearms down in Cocoa, Florida. I was complaining about the older style ‘Jam O Matic’ magazines for the SU-16 [10 round only legal in my State]. … The man representing himself as a gunsmith with ‘Jam O Matic’ actually said, “Use P-Mags.”
        [I’m willing to take a lie detector test, and stand before God on Judgment Day for the comment.] + The ‘Jam O Matic’ works just fine with a different brand of ‘non-factory’ magazines.

  3. I’m trying really hard to stay positive, but I also think it’s okay to mourn the loss of the Republic. The U-Haul statistics are enlightening – thank you for that link.

    I’m trying to get to a full re-inventory to see where the holes are, move things around, and re-organize.

    I was going to dump Amazon, Walmart, and Costco due to their draconian policies, but decided that I will use them for the time being because it suits my purposes, then cut them off when I’m satisfied I’ve found alternatives.

    Do you have alternative plans JWR if the blog is blacklisted? If you can share, great. If not, I understand.

  4. I just watched the WKYT news video and was amazed that there were over 35 million background checks last year, 2020. How that translates into actual numbers is up for speculation but I think that the actual number of firearms sold/ transferred would be close to double that. Me, I only bought 3 for the family. The ammo shortage is a problem for many. I will be making ammo using hard cast bullets for range work as the lead will be in the range bunkers for later use if necessary. A little less powder will conserve it for the hotter jacketed rounds. I made an adapter for my case trimmer to hold a cut off center drill and it works dandy for hollow pointing cast loaded rounds, or even FMJ’s
    I think Biden is whistling Dixie if he thinks he is going to disarm America. I predict the Dems’ will be emboldened and pass all kinds of stupidity until more pigs heads are found in front of their garages. Meanwhile Antifa and other Marxist will get more frisky until people wake up when their personal world becomes affected. Crime is going to get out of control and vigilance committees may be necessary in the big cities. Rural Sheriffs will deputize at large to prevent spill over from the cities. The dollar will be inflated to be almost worthless and rice and beans will be the new currency making stocks and cryptos worthless. I hope my optimism is not bumming everyone out on this pleasant Monday morning. Peace and Love

  5. I am a real estate photographer and I’m hearing more and more agents say we are headed for a real estate correction. Just today, an agent told me, the last bubble pop, she got her daughter into a foreclosure that had sold for $605,000 but bought it for $375,000. This is just outside the DC metro area. If it can happen in the Imperial City, it will be even worse in most other places.

  6. In 2007 and 8 we saw a drop coming in real estate prices, and thought we could muscle through it. We bought 4 rental properties.

    In reality, prices adjusted for ‘inflationary’ FRN devaluation still slammed us for 6 years. Washington State laws are steadily taking ownership rights away so we got out of the residential rental business.

    Now, my strategy is to build up as much reserve as I can (realizing FRN will devalue at 5 to 10% per year) to buy more property in 2023-4 when I think the foreclosures starting to hit in 2021 will reach a greater devaluation level.

    JMO

  7. I just cancelled over $2k of orders I had with Amazon. They have the right to refuse service, I have the right to take my business elsewhere. Nothing I can’t do without anyways.

    1. Ben- i agree with your act. We need to include all the major media platforms and businesses and go local for our needs. It won’t be “convenient” but… . I think we need to build local barter and trade systems to take away their power over us. Unfortunately i can’t even get my wife off facebook!

      1. I agree and am working on it. I’m getting rid of my amazon account as soon as my orders in transit are delivered. I’ve probably spent 4k on amazon since labor day. No more!

        I’d have quit Twitter if I was signed up. It’s time to do what we can and the best I can do from my sick bed is make sure my money goes where I want it to.

        Enough is enough.

  8. We are done with Amazon as well. (I had wanted to be for a long time, but my husband resisted due to their convenience.) Had already switched to DuckDuckGo, but now ditching the Chrome browser too. Trying out Brave. I see it has an option to open a new window using Tor; that seems useful. I want to get a Proton Mail account, if I can ever get two seconds at the computer without small humans swarming my elbows.

    I hope my husband may finally get rid of Farcebook as well. I suggested making sure his few close personal contacts had his phone number for texting, and it may even lead to increased conversations since they wouldn’t have to sort through a whole bunch of other stuff to find each other.

    Over the weekend, we spoke with a (career military) family member who mentioned burying magazines. I shared the school of thought that says when you think it’s time to bury them, it’s actually time to dig them up for use. He thought that over and didn’t seem opposed. Then he pointedly asked my husband when he would get rid of his Apple products…..

  9. Wells Fargo is denying cash deposits. I just sent my wife up to put cash into my account (she is not on it). Apparently a while back they said they will no longer accept cash for deposit unless it is from the account holder. I contacted my two credit unions and they both said she could deposit cash into my account anytime no problem. Guess I am moving all my bank business to one of my CUs now.

          1. Krissy, you are my kind of woman. Candid and forthright. I like that in a woman. My sweet spiouse carries those traits in bold letters.

            “Touche’. So true. It is none of my business.”

            Carry on

    1. Wells Fargo has been fined many times in the last few years for malfeasance by the federal government. Each time they pay a large fine to the government, and nobody goes to jail, the customers never see the money from the fines, and the stock holders take it in the shorts, and crooked banking goes on as usual. Cannot think of any reasons to bank with them.

    2. SunTrust/BBT now Truist has a policy of requiring ID for cash deposits to non commercial accounts . I suppose it doesn’t apply to commercial accounts as when I balked and informed them it was a commercial account they backed down.

    3. There is good information here at SurvivalBlog. There’s a long reply from Rawles himself, that should be of interest to people [Just about everyone has a bank and a credit card. (The Welfare EBT card is actually a debit card)].

      Letter Re: Credit Unions Versus Banks for Safety?
      JAMES WESLEY RAWLES MARCH 7, 2008<~~[GGHD thinks it's still good advice]

      Good Morning Jim,
      As I read today’s blog, I thought again about the safety of credit unions. As far as I have been able to discover, they have not jumped in to the derivatives like banks and mortgage companies did, and seem much safer than banks. Credit unions are mostly local and (though the requirements are often much less restrictive than they used to be) usually only have local residents as customers. Does anyone know any more on credit unions? I’ve long recommended credit unions to my friends and family in place of banks, since they usually offer lower loan, and higher savings rates than banks, with better service. Do you or any of my fellow SurvivalBlog readers have any input, or insight here? Thanks! God Bless, – R. in NH $3 billion fine to settle a civil lawsuit and resolve a criminal prosecution filed by the Justice Department over its fake account scandal.” ….

      “None of the money to be paid to the government under this settlement will go to compensate customers. But officials said Wells Fargo has separately made efforts to compensate victims for potential losses — such as fees they might have been charged or harm to their credit ratings, if any.”
      ****
      FIY = I have a Credit Union Account.

  10. We’re buying 100% from small local hardware stores. Some have a small mix of ammo and we buy a little of that as well as normal things. I even bought a box of 20 ga slugs they said had been there quite a while. The owners are attempting to get in what we need. Said they’ll order it. Can’t beat that. AND they thank us for our business.
    By the way, my wife and I have joint accounts… for over 50 yrs now! Wouldn’t have it any other way.

    Still thinking of selling/trading one of my .22-250 rifles, and buying a Ruger rifle in 204 Ruger caliber. A dealer friend said he can get that caliber ammo easier than most.
    Semper Fi

    1. Yep, you and I are in the same squad, Batteau. I keep telling my neighbors what a great deal, all things considered (transportation time, service, supporting local business) the hardware store nearby, the grocery store across the street, and the restaurant around the corner are. Saving a few bucks pales in comparison. Plus, folks in these places recognize me and work hard for my satisfaction.

      Carry on

  11. Having Already Dropped for Years, US Auto Sales Plunged to 1970s Level in 2020

    I am glad this headline was realistic enough to note that sales have been dropping for years, rather than blame it all on the pandemic.

    Carry on

    1. I am an automotive machinist. Cars are lasting much longer and cost too much to replace. I see many parts of engines with 250,000 plus miles on them in for rebuild ( cylinder heads mostly) that are going be reinstalled and put back into service.
      ( I don’t expect to see the same durability of the newer, smaller engines doing the work of an engine 50% or more larger.)
      I think this is part of what is driving car sales lower, along with the psychological effect of the last four years of uncertainty brought on by the constant barrage of negativity directed at President Trump following 8 years of former president Obama.

      1. Thank you for that insightful comment. A local long time mechanic friend (yes, he does most of my work) echoes your experience. His reason is superior lubrication and metallurgy than yesteryear. He just reminds to change the oil and maintain the vehicles. His personal truck has 350,000 miles on it and is going strong. And that is with just routine maintenance.

        P.S. My big fear is electronics.

        1. The increased durability may be in part to metallurgy, but in my opinion it is more in oils and mostly better fuel management.
          Better fuel management leaves less unburned fuel and soot in the crankcase which means less abrasive particles to wear on parts.
          Another large factor is lower tension rings and increased operating temperatures. An engine that is running colder won’t burn the fuel as completely and will increase wear on the rings and cylinder walls as will higher tension on the rings.
          Another thing to remember if you have an engine with a flat tapper camshaft ( pre 1988 or so) modern oils will not protect the cam and lifters. The proper oils will be rated “SF”, not the modern SM or SN.

  12. Hi all,

    I popped into Walmart on my way to hospital to see if I could buy some prepackaged phones to have as backup for when apple shuts off our phones for our political views or the color of our skin or our religious views or our over education or…and they no longer sell them. Years ago we bought Tracphones. Anyone know where I could get them?

    Not able to diss all our apple products just yet, but soon. Actually, soon we might not have a choice. Well, not a choice we’d take.

    Love ideas since I’m not susposed to even be out shopping and am not interested in using amazon.

    Many thanks!

    1. I have “trac phone” i like it. However, I would look into a Linux phone. Linux has full computer capability. Maybe we as a community could look into. Alternative cellphone and internet choices.

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