Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we further examine suburban and rural relocation. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

An interview with Dave Kranzler: The Economy, Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks

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Degussa sees gold price rising to $2,500 by mid-2021 as central banks continue to print money

Economy & Finance:

David Morgan: Quantitative Easing Our Way to Currency Destruction

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At Zero Hedge: Plunging Enrollment Spells Trouble For Public Colleges

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Amazon opens online pharmacy, shaking up another industry

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At Wolf Street: Stimulus Fatigue? Retail Sales Wane at Many Brick & Mortar Stores. Department Stores Progress to Zombiehood. But Online Sales Surge to Record

Commodities:

Short covering sends wheat futures higher

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Bracing La Niña’s Impact On Commodities. The article begins:

“Sea-surface temperatures have fallen to below normal levels along the central and east-central equatorial band of the Pacific Ocean, heralding what appears to be the onset of a La Niña (Figure 1). This would mark the ninth La Niña since 1959 (Figure 2). Previous episodes of La Niña coincided with exceptionally high levels of volatility in corn, soy and wheat prices.”

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OilPrice News reports: Oil Crash Continues To Claim Bankruptcy Victims In U.S. Shale Patch

Derivatives:

At Wolf Street:

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Derivatives Bloomberg joins race for SOFR credit add-on

Forex & Cryptos:

Correlation Between Covid Cases and the Dollar

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Rate Cut at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

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Pompliano audio: Bitcoin’s Market Cap Is Better Reference Than Price

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Beware that the USD cost of a Bitcoin (BTC) spike to more than $18,000 in recent days will likely be followed by some profit-taking.

Tangibles Investing:

Billionaire Malone Buying Hard Assets, Farmland; Fears Inflationary Dollar Debasement

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Over at SGT Report: Big City Exodus: Rents of Single-Family Houses Rise Across the US, Even as Apartment Rents in Expensive Cities Drop Sharply

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Existing Home Sales Soar To Highest In 15 Years. JWR’s Comment: Don’t confuse the number of sales with rising prices. Home and land prices are starting to fall in urban regions, and yet meanwhile rise in the hinterlands. The “existing home sales” statistic is not being generated by a booming economy. Rather, it is being generated by two factors: 1.) Wise people relocating, strategically, to safer and more rural areas, and 2.) Wise people shifting more of their wealth into real estate (again, suburban and rural), with general inflation on the horizon.

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New stats reveal massive NYC exodus amid coronavirus, crime. A snippet:

“More than 300,000 New Yorkers have bailed from the Big Apple in the last eight months, new stats show.

City residents filed 295,103 change of address requests from March 1 through Oct. 31, according to data The Post obtained from the US Postal Service under a Freedom of Information Act request.”

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A news report from Missouri: Hunters and gun store owners struggling to overcome ammo shortage

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A link courtesy of Pat Cascio: Record sales increase American firearm ownership to an estimated 434 million guns

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




42 Comments

    1. I have a cell phone, almost everyone does. Mine is shut off on my bureau where it sits for weeks at a time. I rarely use it, in fact thwe thing I like the most about it is that I can shut it off. Will this APP work for me???

  1. Hmm, ” Relocation ” It is good to have new blood in the community, but when the new blood brings their bull poop politics with them and expects the new area to cater to them and change to what they think the way things should or use to be is bull. Ammo shortage, went into the local big box store yesterday and all I can say is “Ay, ay, ay”, bare shelves. Hey, I got a question, can I get reparations too because my ancestors were slaves too back in the middle ages , 4, 5, 6 hundred yrs ago in what is now Germany, France, the low lands and Ireland? The word used then was serfs, another word for slaves. I really could use some of that “reparations” [money] about now (chuckle, snicker ). My ancestors were oppressed too. Hmm, just wondering.

  2. 1) Property Shark indicates that there were big price drops in parts of Manhattan but that the New York City suburbs had big price increases. I,e, the Rich are not moving out of the New York City area –just moving from downtown to suburbs.

    https://www.propertyshark.com/Real-Estate-Reports/most-expensive-zip-codes-in-the-us

    Same goes for LA and San Francisco areas.

    2) People need jobs –without a job they won’t keep their homes for long. The Rich control where the jobs are — so if the Rich staying in NYC and San Francisco, so will the jobs. 8 months from now, after the vaccine is deployed, the urban areas will revive.

    3) The Democrat News Media evidently couldn’t do simple arithmetic if you held a gun to their head. NY Governor Cuomo is receiving an Emmy for his
    “communication” re the Covid crisis. But he let New York City develop into a massive Petri Dish — a Covid Death Trap — and the lying News Media is covering up that failure.

    Death rates in many places are less than 30 per 100,000 people.

    In New York City and surrounding suburbs it is 200 to 300+ per 100,000. For comparison, places with some of the highest murder rates in the US have around 50 deaths per 100,000.

    Covid Deaths per 100,000 population

    NYC: 198
    Kings County: 290
    Queens: 322
    Bronx: 351
    Westchester: 155
    Rockland : 212
    Richmond: 234
    Hudson NJ 230 (Across Hudson River from Manhattan)
    Bergen NJ 224
    LONG ISLAND
    Nassau: 165
    Suffolk: 137

  3. Re Gold, did anyone notice that $40 per oz drop this morning? — currently at $1831 an ounce.

    Platinum had been creeping up on gold –spread has narrowed from $1000+ to $900 — but Platinum is down as well.

  4. The best investment is in your health. If that interests you take a look at and follow this.

    Critical Care COVID-19 Management Protocol: Eastern Virginia University Medical School.

    The current protocol and updates can be found at evms.edu/Covidcare. It is also explained
    in detail by Dr.Chris Martensen at Peak Prosperity.

    The recommended vitamins and supplements are not expensive and are available at least for now.

    There is nothing to lose except maybe your life.

  5. “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.” The late JFK said it at his inaugural address almost 60 years ago, but it holds true to this day.

    The lone wolf philosophy of being ruggedly independent to a fault is detrimental and borders on self-sabotage.

    Now even our market analysts have joined the socialist utopia push. When David Morgan quotes JFK, and then twists the quote to admonish us to meekly fall in line with government dictates, it’s gotta give a person a chill. Forget everything you ever learned! Forget everything that the country was built on!

    Some days it feels like we are fighting a losing battle.

    1. Lone Canadian,
      Don’t despair, all is not lost by a far sight yet! I respectively would point out a different viewpoint:

      Not that it matters much, but although the left network personalities have drunk the Kool-Aid to preserve and protect their cushy jobs, some financial news networks haven’t (P.S. Fox Business News with Varney, Bartiromo, or Dobbs are still sane and there are others). Switch to another channel and you take away their power, plus your attitude will improve!

      The enemies of freedom have been trying this B.S. for 244 years, and they haven’t gotten us just yet! Yes, they keep trying, but there is good news. 434 Million firearms! Out of a population of 330M people. That’s not by accident. That’s on purpose!

      “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.” – President Ronald Reagan

      The public is waking up. That’s why Trump was elected in 2016. That’s why the Left had NO CHOICE but to try and steal the 2020 election. Does anyone really believe that Biden got more votes than No drama, All trauma – Oblama? I don’t know if Pres Trump will prevail (hope so) but if not, we ‘ain’t’ done yet. This isn’t just a movement. It’s an idea and ideas are hard to kill. War is about making your enemy give up the will to fight, and make no mistake, we are at war. The enemy only wins if we give up the will to fight. There’s a reason why they call Afghanistan the “Graveyard of Empires”. They will never give up.

      Time for all American’s (and even Canadians) to Cowboy up!

      As always, hoping we all…
      Seymour Liberty

      1. Seymour; I agree that the fight hasn’t even started yet…..I’m waiting for “The shot that was heard round the world.”

        I’m just dealing with a lot of things right now – as are many of us. Not trying to do a “poor me” spiel. I’m just watching our provinces lock down again, only worse than before. Now our governments have decided that only “essential services” will be allowed to operate, and that even at these businesses will be dictated to as to what are essential goods that they can sell. Yes you can buy groceries, but if your coffee maker breaks, you can’t buy that as it’s not “essential.” (Apparently they’ve never seen me without coffee!)

        I’m watching the sheeple fall into line. Heck, half of them are demanding tougher rules and regulations. As of now in the province of Manitoba, you are not allowed to have people from out of your household in your residence. It’s truly gone to completely ridiculous.

        I’m just waiting for the government to mandate that you have to have a vaccination certificate to be able to enter a store to shop, or to be able to work, or use your own bank account. In my country I can see it coming.

        And on top of it all, I’m a victim of my own success. I finished up a project a couple weeks ago. I was supposed to have the winter off – nothing happening until spring. Well, wouldn’t you know it – I got the call to start another project at the end of the month. I’m truly torn. I feel like I should be at home with the wife, prepping for what we all feel is coming, but if it doesn’t come – I still need a job to pay the bills. I know…in the present situation I should be thankful to have a job, but I hate leaving to work away from home at a time like this. The only thing that gets me through is the knowledge that the good Lord has never steered me wrong yet.

        1. Lone Canadian,
          Sorry if I gave you the wrong impression (my bad). Definitely not saying you were “trying to do a “poor me” spiel”. I was just trying to offer a different perspective. I definitely get it. I think we’re all feeling the impending evil coming.

          “I’m just waiting for the government to mandate that you have to have a vaccination certificate to be able to enter a store to shop, or to be able to work, or use your own bank account. In my country I can see it coming.”

          It’s coming here in the US too, just not sure when. They’ve already rolled out the “no air travel without vaccine proof” policy idea on United Airlines for flights (forget where and starting when), so it’s just a matter for time for Entertainment, shopping, etc. I’m done flying now. I simply won’t give up my rights to get on a plane.

          I get down sometimes about the enormous waste of energy and money fighting these Un-Constitutional moves. Think what we could accomplish without the evil efforts of the Far Left.

          Anyway, keep the faith and
          As always, hoping you…
          Seymour Liberty

          1. Nope. You didn’t give the impression that you thought I was on a “poor me” spiel.

            I was just stating that I don’t want people to think I’m on one. Heck, I’ve got to be one of the most blessed people out there. I’ve got a wife that is on this journey with me. I’m old enough, and have managed things so that I have no real debt. And because I am pretty good at what I do, I have a job to go to, when many are looking at losing their homes, and wondering if they’ll be able to pay their bills.

            Maybe I’m just feeling like I’m a little ungrateful for the blessings that have been given me. I don’t want to leave home to go to a job at this time. I’m tired of the dictators. I just want to skip this long drawn-out preamble. I’m tired of the uncertainty on a daily basis. Good or bad, live or die, I’d just like to hurry up and get to the point where the stupidity ends, or it all falls apart.

        2. If al! The businesses in your area co!actively refuse to shut down, you can push back because they can’t arrest you all.

          This tyranny will never stop till LOTS of peop!e organize and resist. Yes, it is that simp!e,….but, the question is: will people actually do if?????

        1. Krissy,
          Thanks for posting that link. I like that scene (and movie) also. Sometimes it’s good to send a message. Nothing like a headless messenger to deliver a message!

          If all people said no, what would they do?

          As always, hoping you…
          Seymour Liberty

          1. ThoDan, No disrespect was meant, indeed, just the opposite. I think most people believe the movie script is fictional. It is the perceived courage in the face of death of the Germanic people that I find inspirational. Fiction or not, that is how I want to be.

            As a side note, I studied German language in college, as well as studying abroad in Germany, back in the day. It was a highlight of my life!
            With respect, Krissy

      2. Today in America, honest, successful, talented, productive, motivated people are once again being stripped
        of their freedom and dignity and having their noses rubbed in it. The conflict has been building for over
        half a century, and once again warning flags are frantically waving while the instigators rush headlong
        towards the abyss, and their doom.-John Ross

  6. I work for a CPA firm and this time of year we are busy with tax planning. Essentially we look at income and expenses/deductions and advise the client what to expect for his taxes and what he can do before Dec 31 to mitigate problems. This year is turning out a little different. Most of my business clients are facing some form of bankruptcy or planning to somehow avoid it. This is to a lesser extent true for my working non-business owning clients as well. I don’t mean “all” of them but a majority are facing the very real possibility of bankruptcy and our planning is focused somewhat less on taxes and somewhat more on timing the filing for bankruptcy and resolving legal issues that bankruptcy won’t solve for them. It looks like 2021 may be a worse year than 2020 but for different reasons.

  7. 1) “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country”

    Wasn’t that the seduction line JFK used on his bimbos?

    2) Kennedy benefited from Ivy League bootlickers like Arnold Schlesinger burnishing his image. Claiming that Khrushchev “blinked” in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Whereas the actual end result was that Kennedy blinked — i.e, he secretly agreed to remove existing Jupiter missiles in Italy and Turkey aimed at the Soviet Union in exchange for the Soviets not deploying missiles in Cuba. A net MINUS for us.

    And does anyone remember the Bay of Pigs fiasco? That — and Kennedy’s agreement to leave Castro alone — ensured the Soviet Union would have a permanent base for its nuclear bombers and nuclear submarines 80 miles from Florida.

  8. NAC is a excellent addition to your Anti-COVID19 arsenal:

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19732754/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7359418/

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/n-acetylcysteine-a-rapid-review-of-the-evidence-for-effectiveness-in-treating-covid-19/

    https://journal.chestnet.org/article/S0012-3692(15)49361-4/fulltext

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQO1PB8-xtg NAC reduces Death Rate- Dr. Seheult

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dr_6w-WPr0w NAC Supplementation and COVID-19

    SARS-CoV2 is hitting our region hard now. Our pastor and his wife are dealing with it at home.

    Our 72YO small group leader just got out of 5 days in hospital due to an appendicitis attack. In hospital intake he was found to have SARS-Cov2. He is now at home doing steriods and antibiotics.

    He has many co-morbidity issues including diabetes and a liver transplant 4 years ago which requires weekly infusions. He has been on NAC, Vit D and C, Quercetin, and Zinc (besides his infusions and other treatments) since I gave a presentation to our group in May.

    We all feel if he had not been on them, he would be much worse. His wife tested as NOT having SARS-CoV2. She has been following the same 5 item regimen since May.

    My wife and I tested this week after being with our leader three different times including home church in the same room for four hours a week prior to testing. We both tested this week as NOT having SARS-CoV2.

    In Washington State we will see a big increase in disease over the next 90 days.

    We’ll see intense financial issues for at least the next two years. At a drive thru now a burger combo is up to $10.50 plus tax. That right there shows you devaluation of the FRN. Much more to come.

    Eyes wide open. No Fear. Don’t be scared. Be Prepared.

    God Bless

    1. I agree with your supplement list plus I also take melatonin…..It has also been shown to help. I have mitochondrial disease and was cautioned that Covid would not go well for me. Although I wouldn’t recommend it, I have had it twice about 3 months apart! Fortunately, I didn’t need hospitalization which I attribute to having high D levels and taking a set of supplements including all those you mentioned. Hardly a double blind study but my two cents!

    2. Excellent recommendations. Chris Martinson has also been talking about n-acetyl cysteine for many months…not hard to find online. Another thought is the book by Ben Bikman (professor of bioenergetics at BYU, “Why We Get Sick”. If you understand how insulin and glucose regulation work in your body, you can avoid or mediate a number of chronic diseases, from heart disease, to diabetes (type ii), to Alzheimer’s (which is now being referred to as type iii diabetes). As a nutrition nerd, of the 20 or so nutrition-related books that I’ve read in the past couple of years, this one is the most comprehensive. I’ve given away at least 20 copies of it to family and friends. Know your fasting insulin level, HOMA-IR, and you will know a lot.

  9. Lone Canadian,

    “Good or bad, live or die, I’d just like to hurry up and get to the point where the stupidity ends, or it all falls apart.”

    I hear you brother. It is frustrating some days. I say, if this country is gonna dance, let’s start the music. Otherwise- stop the stupidity. Unfortunately there is no shortage of stupidity (or evil). Fortunately or unfortunately, we’re not there yet. It’s like a slow drip, drip, drip. Until then nothing gets resolved. It’s like Chinese water torture.

    I think I grew up in the wrong time period. Probably why I like Western movies. Sometimes I think a little western justice would go a long way to fixing a few “problems”. A stiff rope and a tall tree. Or as my brother who likes deep sea fishing says, “What do you call 100 lawyers and 100 politicians at the bottom of the ocean? – A Good Start!”

    Hang in there and
    As always, hoping we all…
    Seymour Liberty

  10. A comment about the U-Haul moving truck photograph.

    First:
    Don Williams is correct about most people are staying in the same area, when they move. People that are ~willing to work for a living are ‘trapped’ in certain areas. Not all people are qualified to move to Montana, and find a job as a Grizzly Bear Wrangler.

    But, people have been buying food preps and guns, for years now. … It’s time to be friends with your neighbors. …. If the neighbors seem to be scallywags, it’s time to move to a better neighborhood.
    ****
    Second:
    The photograph with the U-Haul has an uncanny resemblance to the neighborhood pictured in this article. =
    “Renting a U-Haul to move out of California can be 4 times more expensive than moving in due to high demand.” [Business Insider ~ September 16, 2020]

    U-Haul and Budget moving-truck rental rates were between two and five times as expensive to leave California than to move into it, Business Insider found.

    An easy way to determine who’s moving where is to look up moving-truck rates to and from cities. And the moving-truck rates from California cities — well, they’re high. Certainly higher than rates from other cities to California.

    The trend was first pointed out by Mark J. Perry, a professor of finance and business economics at the University of Michigan-Flint, who tweeted: “Leaving California is getting expensive due to high demand and a shortage of available trucks. Moving to California is getting really cheap due to low demand and a surplus of available trucks.”

    [More information in the article. Certain people are leaving certain areas and particular states. For California, the jobs seem to be in Texas.]

  11. “And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads. And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.”

    I have been drawn to this verse from Revelation as I hear more and more about proof of vaccination (a “mark”) being required to travel, and I wonder where it is leading us and what it means for us. As a kid I thought it very literally meant the devil marking you with a brand on your head, but now… I’m not so sure it’s going to be that obvious.

    1. UBAZ…” and that no man might buy or sell “ would directly impact any of man’ s natural, civil, and municipal privileges and abilities to function in our society as it exists… we would be reduced to bartering if that would even be allowed… and that requires agreement from the other party… yet , Scripture is plain in its promise to those who overcome the mark…I believe as each day dawns we are closing in on this prophetic statement… may we be strengthened in the overcoming promise… may our faith be grounded in The Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ

    2. UBAZ, everyone can argue about some passages in the Bible, until Jesus Christ returns. … I’m going to make a more secular observation about the End Times.
      People should look over the guns at the Elk Creek Company here at SurvivalBlog, and/or consider buying a muzzle loading rifle or pistol.

      The passage quoted by UBAZ is the King James Version of Revelation 13. (in part) =
      “And he ~~~>causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:”

      The NIV version of Revelation 13 says, “It also ~~~>forced all people, great and small, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hands or on their foreheads,
      *****
      *****
      Often we hear a deceiver say, “We just want to help you.” + “It’s for your own good.” … I’m NOT referring to Medicine; I’m talking about Gun Control.
      …….. Gun Control will be ~>forced upon gun owning Americans.
      In America, a lot of people will NOT give up their guns willingly. … Before the Beast can force anything, ALL the guns will have to be first confiscated.
      (There is a Political Beast that just might become President; his minions want our guns!}
      ******
      ******
      The vaccinations might be dangerous to a lot of us. … We know taking guns away from honest people has bad results for people too.
      The Globalists want to control us. One of the first steps in the Globalists’ plans is to take away all of our guns. = The historical route of Dictators is to remove the weapons from the general population.

      The COVID-19 pandemic is dangerous to old people, and the people with co-morbidities. Because of the constant drumbeat about COVID-19, the disease became a method to use mail in ~fraudulent ballots. The fraudulent ballots also cloaked the crooked vote tabulating machines. (That’s where we are on 11/23/2020.)

      To repeat myself:
      This is America. A lot of people will NOT give up their guns willingly. Before the Beast of Revelation can force anything, ALL the guns will have to be confiscated.

      FYI about me: When the Churches are open, I get out of bed and devoutly attend Church.
      [+We might see Biden’s head start spinning around on his shoulders, any day now! Just like the gal in the movie The Exorcist]

      1. If one looks at the track record of the marxists/communists in the 20th century, their playbook usually goes like this:

        1. Steal the election
        2. Confiscate firearms
        3 Mass arrests for any flimsy reason
        4. Detainment / re-education centers
        5. Genocide

        This happened in Turkey, Soviet Union, Germany, China, Cambodia, etc.

    1. @DonWilliams- yes. Since Friday, Gold has gone from $1870 to $1806, and silver has gone from $24.34 to $23.37 . This may be your last chance to buy this low before they return to earlier highs. The gold to silver ratio is at 77.6:1 so you may want to trade some silver for some gold.

  12. re:
    influencing with statistics — influenza aka “CoViD-19”

    Some researchers claim the 2020 death rate of influenza is definitely absolutely 20 per 100,000.
    Or maybe the number is 30 or 3 or ‘unknowable because of errors’.
    Indeed.
    The medical term ‘iatrogenic’ refers to ‘the patient gets worse from medical treatment’.

    Similar to the term ‘Broken Arrow’ to describe nuclear weapons errors/negligence/theft/’do not know what happened to it, maybe we never had it’, an astute observer might question the industry in need of descriptions resulting from the human inability to control that industry.

    Some researchers claim medical errors kill about a million Americans each year.
    Some researchers claim vehicle wrecks kill about a million Americans each year.
    Some researchers claim Americans use firearms to casualty millions of Americans daily.
    Who am I to question TheNumbers… because TheNumbers certainly ‘bare* this out’!

    Instead of ‘quarantine healthy folk’ (a grammatical impossibility), I honestly truly believe we should put all statisticians someplace they can receive the help they need.
    After treatment — according to researchers — about 3 statisticians per 100,000 could rejoin society as functional adults.

    And according to about 20 per 100,000 researchers, about 20 per 100,000 of folks named ‘LargeMarge’ prefer the term ‘this phase of this Economic Lock-Down’.
    .
    .
    * in some parts of Idaho, this is spelled ‘bear’.

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