Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the rising prices of Colt and S&W revolvers. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)
Precious Metals:
Improving industrial demand should help silver prices recover in 2021 – Bank of America
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Gold Price Forecast 2020: The Shift Towards Precious Metals Has Begun
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Money managers trim gold bullish positioning to lowest level since May 2019
Economy & Finance:
The Jobs Report Misunderstanding in a Nutshell: NO V-Shaped Recovery in Sight
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An Epically Bad Week for US Brick-and-Mortar Retailers and Landlords
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By way of Whatfinger.com: Trump Favors $2 TRILLION Fourth Round Stimulus ‘Focused on Bringing Home Manufacturing Base’ From China
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At Wolf Street: Illinois is the First Entity to Borrow from the Fed’s New Facility. But “Insolvent” Entities Are Not Supposed to be Eligible
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Another from Wolf: Wow, That Was Fast: Debt Out the Wazoo
Commodities:
H.L. sent us this: Country With World’s Largest Oil Reserves Has Only One Rig Left
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At OilPrice News: Bulls Beware: A Dark Cloud Is Forming Over Oil Markets
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The Oil And Gas Industry Faces A $1.8 Trillion Loss In 2020
Equities:
Lower Highs, Lower Lows, Eventual Dow 5,000 – Charles Nenner
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The Black Swan Event for Stocks is About to Repeat
Forex & Cryptos:
This does not bode well for any holders of Hong Kong Dollars, in the near future: Fearing a reign of terror, Hong Kong families are preparing to flee. JWR’s Comments: It is probably now time to trade into USD or CHF. Or if you have guts, then short the Hong Kong Dollar! And a really serious pessimist would do the same, for the New Taiwan Dollar.
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The Iranian Rial (IRR) currency is crashing, versus most major currencies. The IRR’s “official” exchange rate is around 42,000 per US Dollar, but the real world exchange rate is now closer to 185,000-to-one! A couple of months ago, Iran announced that a new currency unit called the Toman will soon be introduced. Initially, it will take 10,000 Rials to buy one Toman. That is a “four zeros” haircut!
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Video: Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, CADJPY
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Bitcoin Whales’ Sudden Accumulation May Prevent Deep Correction to $8k
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WhatsApp Debuts Fiat Electronic Payments While Libra Remains Stuck in Regulatory Maze
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In case you missed this news, back in April: China aims to launch the world’s first official digital currency
Tangibles Investing:
I was shocked at the hammer prices for Colt revolvers, in a couple of recent auctions. Some of the most desirable models, such as Walker, Dragoon, and the Model 1873 Single Action Army (“Peacemaker”) were galloping. (Pardon the horse metaphor.) A Colt Walker that was in just “above average” condition recently sold for $100,000. But even the prices of later swing-out cylinder models such as the New Service an Python are coming on strong. And, just I predicted, the gap between Colt and S&W prices is closing. Large frame top break S&Ws — both single action and double action models — are soaring. Don’t hesitate on investing in antique guns. They never seem to go down, in value!
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This article dates back to 2009, but it is still timely: The gun that beat inflation
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!
The manufacturing sector must be restored to the USA. We must also see to the training and prioritized hiring of American citizens. In addition to Peter Navarro’s thoughts on the high tech manufacturing associated with a SpaceX economy, we will most assuredly also need to resurrect other parts of the manufacturing economy. The USA should be able to manufacture goods broadly. Broad based manufacturing should be considered part of our strategic security.
Further… The world is not a better place in any way when the United States uses and tosses into the ditch the American labor force. Some years ago, Disney appeared in the news as an example of the behaviors described in the article linked below. This article is a Project Veritas report about Facebook. It’s not only a sad commentary, it may be illegal based on the reference to federal and state law.
Here’s the report:
https://www.projectveritas.com/news/facebook-insider-company-suspended-my-account-in-h-1b-policy-doc-leak-probe/
Telesilla of Argos I agree. The world has become flat as Friedman said. Parts in any major appliance or your car will come from factories around the world. Critical national defense and healthcare products have materials, components or even the complete product made overseas.
You realize that changing this will require government intervention in the marketplace. New laws and regulations. Basically what conservatives claim not to like. It will also increase prices and lower our standard of living. Right now products, be it piece parts to complete products, in the place where production is cheapest. From a GDP perspective the US still manufactures quite a bit, but industry has spent the last 40 years automating jobs out of existence, replacing workers with machines. Bringing production back doesn’t necessarily bring back jobs. I’m not arguing against more US production, just pointing out trade offs and hurdles.
Hello Don! You raise fair and important considerations, and your thoughts were very much appreciated too. I believe we can accomplish the restoration of the manufacturing sector with limited regulatory interventions and without significant long term adverse price impact. The emerging picture will probably be significantly different from what we remember about manufacturing of the past, and what we know about a consumer/consumption based economy of the present. There is a pathway to success in these regards. It’s a narrow channel, but there is a pathway.
A couple of thoughts, there are 2 conflicting articles on precious metals, this is pretty normal as people tend to try and create their predictions based on their wishes rather than the underlaying facts. I give you the article about bankrupt Hertz selling a butt load of worthless stock.
The Federal Reserve needs to be brought under control. Lending our money to bankrupt states and municipalities is assnine. They have no way to repay any loans. Tax revenues are at all time lows and not likely to increase. The wastrel governments have proved sufficiently that they are fiscally irresponsible and will never be able to pay their present obligations much less pay additional debt.
Again I ask why are they being given public funding? Might be time to go back to the Constitution which prohibited the formation of the Federal Reserve in the first place.
A lesson about Economics and Investing:
With another ammo shortage upon us, I looked at my supply and only found a small hole in the ultra-premium department of my collection; the stuff I use for sight-in and longer distances because I KNOW it will be perfect. Just for laughs, because I knew it was going to be impossible to find at any price, I went searching for my favorite. By some twist of luck, I found it in stock, at unrestricted quantities, and at a price that was less than a year ago! I couldn’t believe it! Being the tightwad that I am (my wife says I can squeeze a quarter until the eagle screams), I hemmed and hawed a few days before deciding this morning to purchase. I guess someone caught on because now, I was forced to join a “members only” club to buy it and the fee was more than 50 rounds of the ammo. Thank goodness the price of the ammo remained the same.
Lesson: circumstances the way they are now, the best time to buy something is when you see it. Antique pistols, ammo, black rifles, whatever you are lacking. If you find it, BUY IT!
D.D.,
Great story.
Great advice.
Krissy
Thanks, Krissy! I hope you are well and glad you liked it.
Since The Great Grocery and Toilet Paper Apocalypse of 2020 have subsided somewhat, I also recommend this strategy with canned goods, toilet paper, and other items that we saw quickly disappear this spring. I actually postponed my garden this year and instead have been using the money normally spent on plants, fertilizer, and critter prevention to buy canned veggies while they are back in stock. I love my garden and have plenty of seeds but I’m buying all the 2 for $1 canned veggies my shelves will hold while the gettin’ is good.
From Surivalblog June 16, 2929: =
“I just heard that the folks who run Naturally Cozy (one of our long-time writing contest sponsors) is re-launching their Privy Paper business. They sell massive rolls of TP, stacked in 5 gallon plastic buckets. This is a brilliant idea that saves a tremendous amount of storage space.”
…….. The site says it’s >two miles of toilet paper for 100 dollars. The >link works on SurvivalBlog for the ‘Naturally Cozy’ site.
A lack of toilet paper is NOT a laughing matter, for people use to the modern conveniences. … I shared my toilet paper stash with people in the trailer park during the TP crisis. [Part of the SurvivalBlog >creed: Give freely and charitably until hurts. [There is] a liquor store right next to the trailer park. [Who would think toilet paper stash and liquor store, at the same time? … Repeated often on SurvivalBlog = “Think outside the box!]
GGHD, Thanks for the reminder of the Naturally Cozy TP pail. I bet your neighbors were amazed and grateful at your generosity to share with them. I believe the Lord sees everything and will bless you. You have a good heart! I tried to give my UPS driver a thank you gift of some TP, (last March) and he smiled and laughed so loud. He said, thank you, but he was good to go with a Costco package, lol. I think the absurdity of it, made his day. I think your sharing made your neighbors’ day. Blessings to you and yours, Krissy
D.D., Thank you for the kind sentiment, and I hope you are well also. Best wishes on hunting for great deals. For others wanting to follow your example, Winco has many .50 canned vegetables, as well as the larger #10 can for less than $5. Their supply of yeast has disappeared unfortunately, but many canning jar sizes are restocked.
Blessings to you and yours, Krissy
Sure agree on the stocking up philosphy.
Review the items mentioned in this from Dr Seheult. Get them now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM2A2xNLWR4&t=520s
Also,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dr_6w-WPr0w&t=85s
to understand just how much NAC can help you get past the next infection.
Home defense market: Two of the five gun dealers in my county area are now Out of Business.
The one independent shop closest to me is packed with customers every day now, even with the Unconstitutional laws passed by our state in the past 18 months.
I predict another huge run up in prices and low availability through the November election.
As an investment, look for semi-auto shotguns, used, in good condition.
Meanwhile, the catastrophe for governor in our capital has put tens of thousands of small businesses under, and discovered he is missing a full 20% of the taxes he had directed the legislature to pass when it was in session. Uh-oh. Guess what he wants to do now?
More taxes plus hyper devaluation of Fed notes means we need to deepen that larder. This years cool solar minimum here is dramatically reducing chances for crops like squash and pumpkins here, while family in Nebraska is getting Solar Minimum scorching temperatures and blast furnace winds alternating with occasional periods of huge downpours.
Our hay crop, while producing volume well, has started “Lodging”, which means it is starting to lay itself on the ground. This effect, in wetter than normal conditions, can cause the crop of grain or hay to get moldy from ground contact and result in less of it for harvest.
Moldy hay causes respiratory distress in animals-particularly in horses, and humans. Mold causes dangerous conditions for human health in grain crops. Other grain diseases like Ergot are particularly bad.