Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the fickle lumber commodity market. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)
Precious Metals:
Stefan Gleason: Five Big Lies About Precious Metals Investing Exposed
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“In Gold We Trust”: Waning Confidence In US Sends World’s Central Banks On Buying Spree
Economy & Finance:
Like something out of a survivalist novel: With Venezuela in collapse, towns slip into primitive isolation
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At Zero Hedge: Profits Plunge As Home-Flipping Hits 9-Year-High
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Hedge Fund Analyst Admits Soliciting Fake Bond Quotes In $200 Million Investor Fraud Conspiracy
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At Wolf Street: Fed Balance Sheet Drops by $42 Billion in May, Sheds MBS at Fastest Pace, Starts the Reverse of Operation Twist
Commodities:
It is noteworthy that the price of lumber is presently near a low point. Never forget that the price of lumber is a reliable leading indicator of the health of the economy. So imagine, if you will, that Mr. Lumber is now shouting from the treetops: “Recession!”
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Following the unending rains in the Midwest: $65 hay bales a sign of the times
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Over at OilPrice.com: Oil Is On The Brink Of A Bear Market
Derivatives:
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Investors oblivious to rising costs of trading derivatives
Forex & Cryptos:
The Currency Strength Heatmap Table is a useful tool in seeing the overall market directions.
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Another way of visualizing the data is found here: LiveCharts.co.uk Currency Strength Meter
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India’s Insane Anti-Crypto Bill Proposes 10-Year Prison for Bitcoin Adopters: Report
Tangibles Investing:
Dents Begin to Show at Top End of Classic Car Market
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This Fishy $50 Bourbon Will Be Prized by Whiskey Collectors
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often get the scoop on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!
The Five Big Lies About Precious Metal Investing is right on the mark about the duplicity of bankers. It was only recently I read about several banks making large purchases of physical gold. It makes you think, what do they know that we don’t.
I wonder if it isn’t in the back of their minds that if the public got on board for precious metals the prices would naturally skyrocket as the amount of metal for sale would dry up in a heartbeat and they would be left holding the bag of useless paper assets derivatives and digital money. Personally I look at cryptocurrencies as a great example of “The Bigger Fool Theory” you can only sell them if you can find a bigger fool than yourself for buying them. Just like the fiat currencies the quantity can be increased and the corresponding dilution of value takes place. The biggest difference is that it doesn’t cost anything to do this as there is no cost of printing and distribution of paper money. Just a few key strokes. A pretty slick scam. I wish I would have thought of it myself.
Two things on lumber prices, from direct interaction with our forester as we wrap up our timber sale:
1. The trade war with China includes tarrifs on lumber. Reduced sales to China is contributing to a glut in domestic supply.
2. The Camp Fire that destroyed Paradise last year, as well as other fires in the Sierra Nevada has created a huge oversupply of salvage timber. The mill we were selling to says that they don’t want to buy anything other than salvage timber because there is so much available at a cheap price.
Thank you SB in Ca for providing a good explanation for lumber prices falling. I take it then, that it’s a good thing rather than a bad thing. Shipping our lumber to China and getting back poorly made furniture was a bad idea in the first place. I’d like to purchase local furniture and be able to trust the quality.
On thing im seeing here in the northeast is a lot of neighbors are having their woods logged and removing most of the ash trees that could be infected with the asian ash borer. It makes sense with that to cash out trees that will likely die anyway.
Another factor in the depressed lumber prices is last years hurricane Michael that hit N. FL & S. GA. A lot of timber was laid down during that storm causing a glut of salvage timber in SE mills. I don’t see this as a harbinger of recession. It will simply cause landowners to postpone timber harvest for 1-2 years till prices creep back up.