Downturns and Financial Crises – Sequence, by Gary Christenson

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Bond Market Turned Down & Interest Rates Up – Check!
  • Two-Year yield bottomed September 2011
  • Five-Year yield bottomed July 2012
  • Ten-Year yield bottomed July 2016
  • The 30+ year bond bull market is done.
Housing Market Turned Down – Check!
  • Mortgage rates bottomed in July 2016.
  • Mortgage applications have fallen hard.
  • London, Vancouver B.C. and Australian prices are down.
  • New York, San Francisco, and Dallas prices are down.
  • Housing Bubble 2.0 is correcting.
Stock Markets Turned Down—Check!
    • Chinese Shanghai peaked January 2018
    • German DAX peaked January 2018
    • U.K. FTSI peaked May 2018
    • U.S. NASDAQ peaked August 2018
    • U.S. Transports peaked September 2018
    • U.S. DOW peaked October 2018
    • All indices are off their highs. New lows lie ahead.
Debt Crisis In Progress—Check!
      • U.S. “official” national debt is $22 trillion
      • Global debt is about $250 trillion
      • Debt is growing exponentially and much faster than the economies which must support the debt. (Trouble ahead!)
      • Debt can’t be repaid unless dollars/yen/euros/pounds are devalued.
      • Default and/or hyper-inflation are visible on the horizon.
      • The coming recession will devastate tax revenues and worsen the debt crisis.
      • We can’t fix a debt problem with more debt.
Currencies Collapse—More Coming?
      • Venezuela, Argentina, and Turkey printed currencies that have collapsed or fallen. Others will follow.
      • The euro is vulnerable. Italian and Spanish debt is dodgy.
      • Deutsche Bank and several Italian and French banks may fail.
      • Trillions in U.S. “sub-prime” corporate debt may default.
      • Many countries seek dollar alternatives, which will weaken the dollar further.
      • The dollar is vulnerable as Washington politicians will need the 2019-2020 version of QE to continue their “out-of-control” spending.
Runaway Inflation—On the Horizon?
      • The U.S. inflation of the 1970s may look like a walk in the park on a warm sunny day compared to hyper-inflation created by irresponsible spending, debt creation, Fed policies and monetization.
      • Prices for food, energy, and services will explode if government fails to intelligently control spending. The prognosis is grim.
      • Loss of purchasing power will devastate savings and retirements for everyone but the top few percent if “they” create runaway inflation.
      • Will the coming reset occur in months or a few years?
Civil Disorder—Coming?
      • Arab spring disruptions
      • Riots in France and elsewhere in Europe today
      • U.S.A.?
      • Police and the military will use force to control outbursts.
Rise of Global Currency and Controls?
      • Global controls, New World Order and a global currency are planned by the “globalists.”
      • The IMF and BIS want more power over global economies.
      • This is a dangerous scenario.
Speculations, Guesses and Worries!
      • Recession and trauma during 2019-2020. Voter unrest.
      • Stock markets, housing markets, auto sales, and retail sales fall further.
      • Political polarization and “fake news” will intensify.
      • Several mid-west Republican states in 2016 will fall to the Democrats in the 2020 Presidential election.
      • Florida may swing Democratic.
      • Not much of “the swamp” will be drained.
      • The House may impeach President Trump but the Senate should acquit. Chaos and depressing social mood ahead.
      • A “hard left” Democrat will win the 2020 election, and will advocate Universal Basic Income, higher taxes, larger deficits, free tuition, infrastructure spending, Medicare for all, student loan forgiveness and more as Democrats expand their desired “free” list. More giveaways will be implemented, debt will rise and will further weaken the dollar.
      • A Democratic President may “print” trillions to bail out insolvent public and private pension funds, expanding a costly precedent begun in 2009.
      • Government and The Fed will attempt to solve another debt crisis with more debt. When will they learn?
      • Watch gold and silver soar as the dollar collapses.
CONCLUSIONS
      • The bond market and housing market have turned downward.
      • U.S. and global stock markets rolled over in 2018.
      • A debt/credit crisis could arrive soon. There is little (as in no) political will to reduce spending, deficits, and debt.
      • Some currencies have already collapsed. Others may follow. Fiat currencies are vulnerable.
      • Currency collapses lead to runaway consumer price inflation!
      • Breakdown of social structures, civil disorder and riots follow runaway inflation and the ensuing loss of confidence in government, currencies, and banks.
      • The globalists will “never waste a crisis” and will use the unrest to increase their controls.
      • A New World Order is a dangerous answer to the problems created by corrupt politicians, central bankers and globalists working to destroy nations.
      • The sun will still shine. Many will be “sadder but wiser” by 2025.

Gary Christenson – Editor, The Deviant Investor


22 Comments

  1. And sadly by 2024 many of us on the right will have passed away and many more young people will have been brainwashed by our universities. We may not win in 2020 and we will be far outnumbered in 2024.

  2. As a start, how about impeaching Pelosi/Schumer, and encouraging the rest of the deadbeat politicians to finally get to work and try and get some of these problems solved.
    Yampa Smith

  3. Watch the obviously fake economic reports: inflation, employment, job creation, housing that have been manipulated since 1980 to give TPTB a false narrative to feed the less informed. Watch the stock market for a continued “melt up” to take more real assets before repeated “pump and dump” steals anything left.

  4. Always find news / financial articles dubious at best whenever they slip in the “democrats will win the next election ”

    Ann Coulter is banging this drum and have written her off . Just like Glenn Beck they talk a good game then decloak as a ” Never Trumper ”

    Come here for my Doom Porn just like everybody else. Just wish the charlatans would keep their political opinions to themselves.

    2. @Jed,

      Yep, pretty much the best route to take. Heed advice, while keeping your own finger to the wind and make your own educated decisions. Keep stocked on necessary tangibles, while continuing to save money for the future. PMs, cash, stocks, whatever…all in moderation and spread out (not all eggs in one basket). Trust in God, enjoy your family and friends, drink out of cups that are half full, not half empty. Etc., etc.

      “The wise store up choice food and olive oil, but fools gulp theirs down.” (Prov 21:20)
      “Who of you by worrying can add a single day to your life?” (Matt 6:27)

      1. Yes, Guesty, I agree. Family and friends will help us get through hard times more than any Gov’t agency.

        Those who contribute to our community and accept the generosity of others are in good shape no matter what “They” do.

        Carry on

    3. Jed, unfortunately there is nobody in D.C. that we can believe anymore. The swamp will remain a swamp and we the folks are being fed just enough propaganda to keep us divided and angry. I think the confusion and bitterness that prevail today are by design, we the sheep are being led over the cliff. I’ve been around a while, never been more cynical and distrustful in all my days. Come the next election, I will most likely have no good choice for my vote, they are all the same. Bottom line, we are being manipulated and deceived by false prophets, there are no good answers other than to put our trust completely in the Lord. This world has no answers, chaos is coming, and in my heart I am secure, God will prevail.

  6. Politics will always influence the credibility of a monetary system. There’s no reason to think the U.S. monetary system will react differently, when compared to other economies, as this is a phenomenon of government. I believe one can expect a lot of grief when the system collapses simply because regime change will be the priority. You will eat or starve depending upon your own planning.

  7. A bunch of random, dated facts of all time highs and lows are somewhat meaningless and should not be used to draw conclusions. The debt bubble might put us into recession but as long as people keep working there is hope. I also agree with Jed, vote for a third party to break the Washington deadlock, hope for the best and prepare for the worse.

  8. I must say that I do believe in my lifetime things will get harder and possibly depression like in the future but I believe we have a ways to go for the simple fact there can be an immense amount of stimulation by the government infused into the economy the problem is our mindset as conservatives in that though we would not condone bail out practices and we tend to look at things through the lense of reason, reason simply does not apply to the government and so we base our assumptions upon that reason and fail in our beliefs to understand why the government does not follow those same reasoned approaches. A 2 trillion infrastructure plan alone would kick the can down the road for another couple years at the very least regardless of how we pay for it.

  9. The Leftists are planning on killing you. They want you dead. If you really want to save your country there is only one question left to ask; who do we have to end to make this stop? All else is purely intellectual self-deception.

  10. Ok folks, we can bitch all we want on this blog, but until we get off our collective bums and DO something positive to restore our nation not a thing will stop the train wreck.

    WE THE PEOPLE are the ordinating authority in this Republic, maybe we should start thinking and acting like it. The government from either party or what ever ilk the far left may be is never going to fix itself; its our sacred duty to do that.
    Take a hard look at this website, then get involved. Stop talking and start doing. I am deeply involved in tis effort, so get busy and lets drain the swamp ourselves and not look for some one else or some party to do it:

    https://www.ourfirstright.org/

  11. Israel became a nation in 1948 and that generation is to see the second coming. A generation is 70 or 80 years Biblically. 2018-2028 appears to be quite accurate. 2020 is perfect sight, perfect hindsight………things are about to get very real. All of the above will certainly play into the Great Tribulation that is upon us. Bible thumper, you bet, realist as well. The world is rumored to be setting up for a heck of a military conflict. Prep and pray, as always. Smoke em if you got em.

  12. Arg! I’ve been reading Survivalblog since it’s inception and do so get tired of “the sky is falling!” Guys, the sky already fell. Our “leaders” are mostly corrupt. The debt is historically high. The educational system is nothing more than an indoctrination center. Cultural divisions are worse than ever but not in the traditional sense. It’s now the Marxists/Globalists versus the EveryoneElse, which is worse than mere racial divides. Satan is alive and well. What are we to do? Keep marching on. Be in prayer. Ignore the attempts to take away our 2A rights at all costs. Continue with self-sustainability efforts. The people who are at risk are buried in debt, rely on a corporate job with no backup skills nor Plan ABCD, heavily invested in the stock market rather than tangibles. IF the stock market tanked tomorrow, IF the housing market tanked the day after, this shouldn’t affect a Survivalist. I apologize for my frustration friends. My eyes glaze over and I “Skip” past these articles. Maybe I am weary of #ImpendingDoom! #GlobalReset! I would love to read articles focused on the amazing freedom we do have in America and how that plays out moment by moment, day by day. I’m not asking for unicorns and lollipops. Just positive, inspirational accomplishments, that are practical (mostly what this blog has focused on). Maybe I should be quiet and write an article. LOL.

    1. I totally agree Gramma. I just had to pick a side to vote for and it wasn’t going to be the left. Im just hoping and praying and becoming more self sufficient. Thank you for your words.

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