Silver prices peaked in 2011. The descent has been long and tedious. Perhaps silver prices made an important low on September 11, 2018, like they did on November 21, 2001 at $4.01. That long-term low was twenty cents below the price on September 11, 2001, the day the twin towers fell at free-fall acceleration, which marked the beginning of the silver bull market that launched prices upward by factor of 12.
The S&P 500 Index has risen for over 9 years, from a low of 666 to a high of 2,940. It sits in late October at about 2,641. Massive debt increases, central bank created low interest rates, fiat currency devaluations, stock buybacks and debt based optimism fueled the rally. A correction is occurring.
Sanity: I know of no metric to measure the absence of sanity in the financial world, but if such a metric existed, it would register HIGH! Consider:
- Official U.S. national debt has increased an average of 8.8% per year since 1971 when President Nixon defaulted on the U.S. promise to exchange dollars for gold. It is not sane to expect the economy to grow a few percent per year while debt grows 8.8% per year. Debt rising faster than economic growth for decades creates dire consequences.
- Finite World: The world and its resources are finite. Yet we demand expansion and more extraction of resources every year. How sane is exponentially increasing use of commodities in a finite world? How sane is creating exponentially larger quantities of fiat currency and debt in a finite world?
- Negative Interest Rates: Several European countries promise, in ten years, to repay a smaller number of devalued euros than the amount borrowed. If you want fewer euros than you loaned, and will wait ten years, and understand the repaid euros in ten years will be worth far less than current euros… step forward. Crazy!
- Nuclear War: Mutually Assured Destruction—MAD. Building bigger and more deadly nuclear bombs at huge expense accomplishes what? Encouraging guaranteed global destruction is not sane.
Year Silver DOW S&P500 Nat. Debt $Bill.
1971 $1.39 900 100 $398
2018 $14.44 24,443 2,641 $21,700
Ratio 10.4 27.1 26.4 54.5
Increase/yr 5.1% 7.3% 7.2% 8.8%
The DOW and the S&P 500 Index have grown much faster than silver since 1971. National debt has exploded higher. This shows the power of printing fiat currencies to fund deficits, levitate stock markets, overstate asset prices and understate risk.
The banking cartel creates debt, boosts stock markets, increases wealth for the political and financial elite and devalues fiat currencies toward their intrinsic value of zero. This is beneficial for the political and financial elite, but few others.
Official national debt has increased 8.8% per year since 1971, doubling every eight to nine years. Assume debt will double every nine years. By the year 2100, debt will have doubled nine times. That places the U.S. official national debt at about $11,000 trillion. Insane! The dollar, if it still exists, will buy next to nothing. Expect a reset.
Conclusion: A reset will occur. Buy silver! Debt will be defaulted or inflated to worthlessness as the banking cartel devalues the dollar. The alternative is that fiscal sanity will return, congress will balance the budget and reduce debt, the Federal Reserve will disband, pigs will fly, and three other impossible things will happen…
Regarding overvalued stock markets…
“So when the herd thunders off the cliff, most participants are trapped in the stampede.” Charles Hugh Smith
Is Silver Undervalued Compared to the S&P 500?
Silver prices are too low when compared to the S&P 500. Expect the ratio to rise for several years. Assume the S&P 500 corrects by 50% and silver rises to about $50. Even at those prices the ratio would remain below the level reached in 2011.
The price of silver could rise far higher than $50 and remain within an expanding trend channel dating back to 2001. A financial reset could devalue dollars, implode debt, and force central bank intervention with tens of trillions of “funny money.” These events would create investor disillusionment with paper assets and might boost silver and gold prices by a factor of ten or more.
Is this a forecast? No, but higher silver prices are inevitable, short of nuclear war.
SUMMARY:
- Debt and currency in circulation grow exponentially.
- Silver and stock prices grow exponentially.
- Silver prices are low in 2018 compared to stock indexes. Silver prices will rise and stock prices will fall, and then rise again. The long-term trend for both, thanks to created “funny money,” is higher.
- A reset of the financial system, an implosion in the stock and bond markets and falling real estate prices will panic investors, as it did in 2000 and 2008. Silver prices will rise as they always do.
- When? Soon, maybe very soon, but don’t underestimate the manipulative power of central banks to delay the inevitable while they transfer more paper wealth to the elite.
WHAT ABOUT THE GOLD TO SILVER RATIO?
History shows that gold prices rise and fall a smaller percent than silver prices. When the ratio is too high, silver prices have fallen into the basement and will rally.
The gold to silver ratio as of September 2018 has reached a 25 year high. Now (most of 2018) is a buy zone for silver.
CONCLUSIONS:
- Silver prices are far too low when compared to the S&P 500 Index.
- The S&P 500 Index has risen too far and too fast. Markets that rise too far and too fast always correct, but they can become even more extended before they implode. Remember that the NASDAQ 100 Index fell 84% from high to low after the 2000 peak.
- The gold to silver ratio shows that silver has fallen hard compared to gold. Those times when the ratio is high have been excellent buy zones for silver.
- Debt has increased too far and too fast. A reckoning is coming. The result will be a category 7 financial hurricane. Protect your assets with silver and gold.
This post first appeared on The Deviant Investor.
… and just what are those three other impossible things that will happen? My keyboard came close to wearing a mouthful of the morning coffee when I read that. 🙂
Very enjoyable read. Thanks.
Think about the word ‘trillion’. 1 Trillion seconds equals 32,000 years. The US debt is $21 trillion.
Spoiler Alert: Facts ahead.
Donald Trump promised to get rid of the entire national debt “over a period of eight years.” The national debt stood at $19 trillion. This year Trump will raise it to $22.7 trillion, a 19% INCREASE!
The president does not raise the debt. Congress sets all spending priorities and within narrow margins the president cannot lawfully spend less or more than congress legislates. All the president can do is to work with congress or to shut down government. You saw how poorly congress, even the Republicans, worked with the president. For Trump to shut it down would be a Democrat wet dream. As bad as the Republicans in general have been in congress it would be much worse if the Democrats were to get full control of both houses. Shutting down the government would probably cause exactly that and probably a Democrat president (Kamala Harris maybe) as well.
Actually, I think building more nukes makes a lot of sense. In case our creditors try to collect.
One thing to note is that Silver actually absorbs radiation.
Can’t comment on the economic formulas, but nuclear arsenals are much smaller than they were in the 1950s to 1970s. And, the warhead yields have drastically decreased due to great improvements in accuracy. In the 1950s, an ICBM warhead had to be very large to assure the destruction of a target because it could not be counted on to land within several miles of the X. Today, ICBMs can put 50% of their multiple warheads within 100 meters….the rest will fall just outside that range. The Russians claim their Satan II (an improved SS-18) can put each of its 10 to 24 warheads within ten meters. The number loaded on a missile depends on the type/yield of each one, and what kind of targets it will be tasked with.
Smaller warheads enables greater targeting flexibility….one ICBM can hold at risk many targets within its footprint. In the case of the SS-18, the footprint was an ellipse on a map 200 miles wide and 600 miles long. Each re-entry vehicle (the cone-shaped thingie that gives the warhead a ride through the atmosphere) is released in sequence at a point where the “bus” (the space vehicle that has all the RVs mounted on it) is on the correct flight trajectory for a given target. Once a warhead is released, the bus steers itself onto the next target’s trajectory….and the process completes when the last bird is away.
In the 1950s and 60s, both sides had warheads in the 20 megaton range (20 million tons TNT equivalent). Today, warhead yields on strategic missiles range from 170 kilotons (170 thousand tons, TNT) to 1 megaton. The most common in the Soviet…..oh, excuse me…..Russian arsenal range from 300 kt to 750 kt. US warheads (if they still work- we haven’t made a new one since 1989) range from 170 kt to 350kt….when they were new. Our mileage may vary.
The United States has done NOTHING to improve its nuclear deterrent in over 30 years. Russia and China have both massively modernized their weapons and delivery systems. They are more accurate, more survivable, and are designed specifically to demolish the US nuclear deterrent.
The rest of the world will go right on living should the US be taken down by its rivals.
“Global” destruction is a myth.
Nuclear weapons and their delivery systems are far cheaper than conventional forces….that’s why we relied on them to deter our enemies, rather than a huge army and navy. From 1955 to 1965, we had three strategic bombers (B47, B52, B58) in production. We had three ballistic missile sub classes in production, Ethan Allen, Ben Franklin, George Washington. And three ICBMs, Titan, Minuteman, Atlas. ALL of these programs made up just 6% of the DoD budget at that time.
Today’s US deterrent is made up of only 13 Ohio class subs (1980s era) and the Minuteman III (1970s technology), and fewer than a hundred bombers (B1, B52). Our Minuteman IIIs are loaded with only a single warhead, and our D5 Trident SLBMs are loaded with one third of their full payload capacity. We haven’t tested a warhead since 1991….so we don’t really know if they’ll really work, and to what degree.
Fewer nukes actually encourages a rival to try his luck. Assuming a 90% kill rate of targeted missile silos (the sub bases and bombers are toast) in a surprise attack, the aggressor would face far fewer warheads in a retaliatory strike than with a much larger arsenal. In a modern world, you don’t fight with what you have. You fight with what you have…..LEFT.
And no, a single Ohio class sub can’t make much of a dent in a retaliatory strike against counterforce targets. At any given time, we’re lucky to have ONE Ohio within range of its targets.
So, how’s your stock portfolio?
The price of silver and gold in federal reserve notes is a reflection of how worthless the paper is.
1971 $1.39
2018 $14.44
In 1973 it took $1.39 to buy an ounce of silver, in 2018 it takes $14.44 to buy that same ounce of silver. An ounce of silver is an ounce of silver so it didn’t change. The “value” of the paper and ink did.
Its sad what the banksters have done to us.
So the price of silver has stayed a little ahead of inflation?
I believe that we need to take note of the new sub detection systems based in space. These systems can detect a sub at 100 meters (or more) below the surface. At what point will our enemies decide that our slbms can be largely neutralized. Does this open the door to a first strike? The Chinese are working hard to perfect these systems. If the USA is neutralized then Russia has Europe and China the far east and the pacific.
I recently read about the development and deployment of space based sub detection systems that can detect submerged sub at 100 meters or more. This technology can enable an aggressor to locate and identify our subs as they approach launch depths. A first strike will likely destroy over 90% of our icbms and probably more than 90% of our planes before they can be ready for launch. If our subs can be neutralized how tempting will this be to our enemies.
The US has enemies ? only one’s I can think of are the ones that yell ” all at the snack bar ” before detonating themselves, Russia is NOT interested in world domination, China ? hahaha……too much cronyism and corruption, besides their military ain’t up to scratch for decades….
You have to understand that Nixon needed to take action regarding the US dollar being backed by gold. If you recall that France was the largest culprit along with a few other greedy countries in Europe asking for gold in exchange for their hundreds of millions of dollars in stock. The US shipped the gold to Europe and was supposed to destroy the paper money they exchanged for gold. It was happening in an alarming rate that the US would have been left with zero gold and zero paper currency floating around.
What should have happened, instead of broadcasting that the US will back its paper money with a gold exchange, that we back our money with gold but do not allow an exchange for that gold with the US dollars you have in your hand. Then the money is secure and the gold is secure in Fort Knox and yes, the US is back on the gold standard.
This is how stupid our US bureaucrats were and still are today!
Problem solved! Case closed!
Sigh. For nearly a decade articles like this have permeated blogs and sites like this, predicting over and over again a massive rise and urging the reader to buy buy buy, and what have we seen? Continual losses and collapses in price. One day, completely randomly, PM’s will spike, and these folks will cry how they were right all along, ignoring the fact that a broken clock is correct twice a day. Then they will collapse again. I learned my lesson in I think was late 2012 when my silver dropped precipitously in one day, I think close to or more than $12 an ounce. PM’s are a scam, just like every other market. If you can’t eat it, drink it, or shoot it, caveat emptor.
I don’t know what the markets will do, but I know our debt can never be repaid and it is still growing. The end result will be much like Venezuela.
So where should I put money? Beans, bullets, and bandages are not an option unless I want to bury a few Walmarts. Current stock prices is the inflation everyone can’t seem to see! Currency and bonds are part of the problem.
Sooner or later – people will wake up and see the dollar is a lie and it will tank in moments. Real assets will recover, but that may take awhile.
@Paul Seyfried
1) I think the shoe is on the other foot– Washington first destroyed Russia’s Serbian allies in the mountains of Yugoslavia, then rolled NATO forward 600 miles by assimilating Poland, Czechoslavia, etc into NATO and is currently rolling NATO forward to Russia’s border with the Ukrainian coup of 2014. Asst Secretary of State Vicky Nuland was caught on tape in Washington stating that we dumped $5 billion into “spreading democracy” in Ukraine — what the CIA used to call subversion. Vicky was then later caught on tape in Kiev handpicking the next President of Ukraine. George W Bush had tried to get Ukraine added to NATO in 2008 but FRance and Germany objected (at that time.)
2) The 2014 coup was a lethal threat to RUssia’s very existence. A swarm of our RD-180 stealth drones launched from Ukraine could take out Russia’s command posts and ICBM sites in a single surprise First Strike one night. The drones wouldn’t need a command link to pilots –other than the ones hunting mobile ICBMs. Static sites could be destroyed by drones merely guided by GPS and timed to explode at the same instant.
3) Ukraine is a bankrupt country 4500 miles from Washington. It made no sense for Washington to spend $5 billion — and run the risk of rebooting the nuclear arms race — unless US elites plan to conquer Russia and grab her immense natural resources. To , in essence, conquer the world. Every since Reagan, Washington has been squeezing Russia like a python squeezing a pig to death.
4) Our lying news media never pointed out the order of battle: USA/ 325 million people/
$18 Trillion per year GDP. US European allies: 515 million people/ $19 Trillion GDP. Russia: 145 million people/ $1.6 Trillion GDP
US Military budget: Roughly $800 billion per year Russia’s military budget: about $75 billion per year.
The claim that Russia was planning a march to the English channel was just as deceitful as the claim about Saddam Hussein planning to attack us with (nonexistent) nukes.
5) Russia has been conned into reducing her nuclear forces to 17% of what they were in the 1980s — but she still has ample means to do a CounterValue strike instead of attacking our Minuteman ICBMs. I.e to destroy 200 of our largest cities and 70%-80% of our population. And that is about her only recourse if she is backed into a corner.
The risks run by Obama make no sense — unless our elites think they have ample shelters outside the cities — and that it is better to rule in hell than to serve in heaven.
6) The TTAPS arguments made for nuclear winter in 1983 were overstated but 35 years later there seems to be ample evidence that massive famine would occur in the Northern Hemisphere if a major nuclear war occurred. I think Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil would survive ( as you noted, warhead yields are smaller and hence less dust/soot would be thrown into the stratosphere–plus the stratosphere is much higher at the equator.)
Admittedly, those Southern Hemisphere countries produce huge amounts of food. However, they do so only by importing millions of tons of fertilizer every year.
I agree with Joel Skousen that Australia and New Zealand would be Chinese colonies within a short time if the USA was badly damaged.
@ Don
Correction mate…………….. Australia and NZ already ARE Chinese colonies…. walk the major cities in each country and you will see proof. Australia could not defend itself for a week without Yank help….we have 59 Abrams pffft !, NZ has no Armour at all, no Airforce, no Navy………Aussies can throw Roo’s at the Chinese or Kiwis sheep with gumboot’s attached but that’s it.
@ oz boy
1) Well, China has about 1.4 billion people and Australia has about 20 million — so I know where my money would go if you guys had an all ranks soccer match.
2) Not to get all Sun Tzu’y on you but that means China also has a lot more people to lose. And last time I checked, Australia has about 31% of the world’s reserves of uranium.
Just saying…
@Don
You seem to be a guy who likes accuracy….I notice
1. Australia has 24.7 million people according to last census, yeah, yeah it’s a small difference, but reasonable one. As for soccer match ? ha ! the Chinese can’t play soccer !
2. Australia may have 31% of the worlds yellow cake, but we have the watermelon party here that stiffles and limits selling of yellow cake to third world dictators, let alone to our energy suppliers trying not to use coal fired plants for local use
3. We gave you Olivia and Paul Hogan so that counts for something… ( not sure what though )
4. You DO know the RE bubble we have is propped up the the rich Chinese don’t you ? ( I can quote you the exact figure if you like )
5. Australia is a important partner to America ( so it’s touted here , but in reality that’s utter BS )
6. Mr Putin is not a bad bloke once you have a vodka or two with him…the Chicom government is just that still red on the inside, they are only interested in acquiring Oz companies and RE as a safe haven and the quisling Pollies here all go along with it ( and their backhand shakes stuffed with ever declining Oz dollors
Well, Australia has no monopoly on corrupt politicans and greedy, self-serving billionaires.
Our American ones seem to be buying up retreat property in New Zealand — which seems idiotic given that New Zealand’s Navy consists of little more than a fishing boat. The RE Deals make sense only if our billionaires are more afraid of Americans waking up — of the peasants with pitchforks — than they are afraid of the Russians and Chinese.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2931325/Super-rich-buying-property-New-Zealand-bolthole-case-west-goes-meltdown.html
Ah, Jason we must look back at the history of nations and empires. Will we see hyperinflation here in the States? Will my little pile of precious and base metals have any worth or buying power after the dollar collapse? Will I wish I had lived a more self indulgent lifestyle instead of socking away for a future rainy day? Time will tell. I wish I had been in the stock market over the past decade, and I am glad to own a home.
Sensible article based on simple, true facts. Still, silver shouldn’t be considered an “investment” — unless it’s based on fundamentals, like changes in supply or demand for it. Stocks SHOULD go up as companies grow, and companies should grow based on growing populations and growing productivity — and that’s not even counting technical and business leaps forward through creativity and invention. Silver should be considered a keeper of wealth, not a grower of it. That being said, it’s hard to deny that now is probably a pretty good time to buy. Of course, I thought exactly that same way four years ago when I bought quite a bit — at a price about $2 higher than it is now…
Gold and Silver are not an investment, they are insurance. If you do not understand this, you should not rely on PMs. You will be disappointed. Do some research and learn about it. I could explain it but you would do better by learning it yourself.
If the dollar collapses who is going to buy your silver or gold and with what?
Who will set their value?
PM’s need second and in most cases third parties to exchange gold and silver for other items.
Today I need the local coin shop or private party, (second party), than an established bench mark, (3rd party), to exchange my gold to dollars.
So if dollars are toast, markets are in chaos, who is going to “buy” your gold and with what?
your charts and graphs are pretty, but without a legend or a written description of how to interpret them, they are just squiggly lines on the screen. how about putting some explanation behind them so the laymen can understand them???
“if the dollar collapses”
There will be a need for a replacement money. It might be a newly issued paper currency, a Cripto, or the old historic standby gold and silver. No, you can’t eat gold or silver but it has usefulness and value as a means of exchange (money). This is because it is rare, easy to recognize, use, divide, carry, and hard to counterfeit. After a dollar collapse (which might be slow or quick) transition to the new money will take time (which might be slow or quick), but eventually a value will be agreed on that is based on exchange of your real products and labor.
@Roger D — “a 19% INCREASE” (in the National Debt) Noted!
@OneGuy — “Congress sets all spending priorities” (representing the People who sanction such, if only by their passive acceptance.)
@Snotty Boy — “The price of silver and gold in federal reserve notes is a reflection of how worthless the paper is.” (a reflection of how worthless the “dollar” is. Paper and ink are still valuable commodities.)
@Jefferson Davis — “… we (should) back our money with gold but do not allow an exchange for that gold with the US dollars.” (refusing exchange at the claimed exchange rate, is the very definition of “unbacked.”)
@Jason — “If you can’t eat it, drink it, or shoot it, caveat emptor.” (Caveat emptor, always, but the day might arrive when you wanted something you couldn’t eat, nor drink, nor shoot, and you’d need something to exchange for it — something to function as money.)
@Arba Turhan — “the dollar is a lie and it will tank in moments. Real assets will recover, but that may take awhile.” (Yes it will, and yes they will, and when they do, you may want something other than your survival groceries, with which to purchase some.)
@Steve_N & @Nathan Hail — “silver shouldn’t be considered an ‘investment.'” “Gold and Silver are not an investment, they are insurance.” (Bingo!)
@Skip — “So if dollars are toast, markets are in chaos, who is going to “buy” your gold and with what?” (Maybe someone who wanted to sell his/her land, house, or business? Few could store enough everyday “preps,” to make such transactions work.)
@Old John — ““if the dollar collapses”
There will be a need for a replacement money. (That’s right! And it must be created by the government, interest-free, not borrowed by the government, from private parties, at interest. But using PMs could begin to restart an economy.)