Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on Japanese Swords. (See the Tangibles Investing section, near the end of this column.)
Precious Metals:
“Mother Of All Bubbles” Keeps Gold Price In Focus
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Spot gold was down $4 an ounce by noon on Tuesday, but silver was up slightly. Since January 1st, 2017, spot gold is up 7.81% and silver is up 2%. If the global economic crisis that many pundits anticipate doe indeed materialize this coming October, then the precious metals will become truly precious.
Commodities:
As Gas Prices Fall to 12-Year Low, Schumer Claims Gas Prices ‘Never Go Down’
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Copper futures jumped 3% to $2.82 on Tuesday. That increase is part of a general rise of 25.14% for the year. Methinks this has more to do with the beating of global War Drums than it does with confidence in a rebounding consumer economy.
Stocks:
Cautious Fed bets keep dollar glum, stocks strong
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S&P 500 hits record high on stronger-than-expected earnings. JWR’s Comment: Beware the euphoria, folks. We can expect a big sell-off before the end of 2017.
Forex:
EUR/USD Forecast July 25, 2017, Technical Analysis
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The US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) trade ratio just crossed the psychological barrier of 0.95. I expect to see the Dollar to continue to decline. I hope that some of you bought Swiss Francs, when I first this hedge in February of 2016. Back then, a one Dollar bought more than one Swiss Franc. But now, it is the other way around.
Economy and Finance:
Britain’s Economy Is Almost Flatlining
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Wilson from Pantry Paratus sent us this excerpt of a ride report from an adventure motorcyclist couple doing a trip across Africa. They stop at a friend’s house in Zimbabwe. He gives them a first hand account of the history of the fiat money hyperinflation. If you thought that 10^25 inflation for paper money instruments was fiction, then consider this instructive.
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A mystery trader made a massive bet that the stock market will go crazy by October
Troubling Trends:
Next, over at John Galt’s Shenandoah: August 1, 2017 Starts the Most Dangerous 90 Days in American History
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Existing Home Sales Slump In June – Weakest Summer Selling Season Since 2011
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The worrisome news in China’s economic scorecard
Derivatives:
As of September 1st, Initial Margin (IM) obligations will will go into effect for parties with over €2.25 trillion of uncleared OTC derivatives in the EU. JWR’s Comments: These new regulations represent a long leash for a big, untamed tiger. Bottom Line: The Over The Counter (OTC) derivatives market is still largely unregulated, both in the EU and in the US. And here in the States, some of the few regulations are being eliminated. The potential for a big blowup of counterparty risk is substantial. The fallout of such a crisis could devastate nearly all bond, equities, and commodities markets. And entire national currencies could be at existential risk. The credit derivatives markets are particularly hazardous casinos. Be forewarned: Great peril will exist if and when we see a large swing in interest rates.
Tangibles Investing – Japanese Swords:
One area of diversification for tangibles investors is Japanese swords (nihonto.) This is a field that requires lots of research and that has plenty of pitfalls. Don’t buy any “authentic” antique sword until you’ve first done plenty of research!
7 points to consider when choosing your Japanese sword
As with any other advanced antique tangible investment, you will need to first acquire some key reference books, such as:
Facts and Fundamentals of Japanese Swords: A Collector’s Guide
The Connoisseur’s Book of Japanese Swords
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. So please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often “gets the scoop” on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!
It’s tempting to believe that because stock prices are at all time highs the market must be in a bubble. I do not think one necessarily follows from another. In bubbles everyone is investing in the asset. There’s no money left on the sidelines, and investors believe the asset will never go down. We are not in this situation yet!
I believe we are in a rising market that will eventually become a bubble — at heights we cannot imagine. We may have a 10-15% correction along the way, but that’s normal stuff. We probably (a guess, because it’s the future, folks) have 12-18 months of uptrend left, after which the likelihood of a significant drop will increase dramatically.
Ideally one would want to stay in until somewhere around the peak, get out, and buy back in at the depth of despair. Unfortunately, predicting the peak is impossible. The use of training stop loss orders (kept private, not in the market) can help in this regard. There are websites out there that can track stock prices and stop loss orders.
trailing stop loss orders (oops)
I tend to agree with both John Galt and former Reagan Budget Director David Stockman as to what is coming. But neither have explained satisfactorily the timing of the thing. Why August – October?
I love the katana. How about more info. on carbon steel blades. Can you recommend a few locations to buy well made katana not as an antique but as a well make good quality or high quality sword. In my point of view it is the quality of the workmanship that matters. Identification marks are important also, to help you know what you buy. These katana are a beautiful work or art.
Looking forward to read some more about this.
Cold Steel (the same folks that made the special edition Rawles XL Voyager) makes some surprisingly good Japanese Style modern swords. I particularly like their Wakazashi length.
I wish they still made USMC NCO sabre it may not have been regulation but it was by all accounts a usable weapon instead of a cheap wall hanger.
I took a look at that reference you just gave. I assume these sword are considered functional. Is that correct? I also assume they do shipping world wide.
Thank you for answering this post so fast. I am sword shopping among other things.
I was reading the description of the Cold Steel Rawles Voyager XL Folding Pocket Knife 5.5″ Serrated Tanto Point CTX XHP Steel Blade Griv-Ex Handle OD Green. That’s a mean knife. I like it.