Making Assumptions, by Mudflap

Prepping is full of assumptions.  We prepare because we assume that something could go wrong in our lives and that it is our own responsibility to take steps to assure that we come out smelling like roses.  Others don’t prepare because they assume that nothing could go wrong in their lives and that someone else will take care of them.  We buy long term storage food because we assume that there will be a food shortage in the future.  Others barely have enough food in the pantry because they assume the pizza place will always be able to deliver and that they can send someone to the grocery store on the corner to pick up the smallest bag of sugar because they only need 1 cup to finish the recipe.  We stock up on spare parts, spare clothes, spare batteries, spare medicine, extra ammo, extra deodorant, extra cash, cans of fuel, etc, etc, because we assume there will come a day when we wont be able to just run down to the massive store that sells everything and get it all in one stop.  Others would have a very clean garage without the smell of gasoline, beautiful pantry cabinets so organized that everyone that comes over is so jealous as to how organized and clean their house is, because they assume that they can always run to the store no matter what time of day it is and get whatever is their immediate need. 

Assumption is one of the biggest banes for anyone that is concerned about safety.  I worked as a technician in the oilfield for one of the largest technology companies that is present on land based drilling rigs.  If there is a safety-conscious industry, it is the oil field.  Every company working in the oil field is required by law to do mountains of paperwork, proving that the company is safe.  There is so much emphasis on slowing down, being aware and not assuming anything.  Double check everything.  Don’t assume that there is not anyone behind your work truck,  have someone check and watch for you as you back up, or never park in a spot where you have to back up.  Don’t assume that the guy driving the heavy equipment sees you walking across the drilling location,  always take the extra time to verify your presence with everyone.  Working on the cattle ranch that my father and I run,  I also find that assumptions can get you killed.  It is a lot of fun working with my father.  We think very similarly.  This means that we work together very efficiently.  This also means that we assume to always know what, where, when and how the other is going to act.  These assumptions have almost left me ran over, squashed, banged, or hurt some other way on multiple occasions.  The same goes for him.  There have been times where my assumptions have almost gotten my father hurt.  We have discussed the situations and have made ourselves slow down and take our time.  The most important thing is for us to make it home at night.    We as preppers pride ourselves on our long trains of thought which are supposed to end in discovering every possible scenario and how to overcome them.  There are many times where we still make assumptions that could leave us in a whole lot of hurt.  The most present assumptions that I am finding around me has to do with electric generators.   

It was about five years ago that my part of the county had another “Ice Storm” scare.  Everyone that had lived thru the original “Ice Storm” back in the early part of the millennium knew what could be in store.  Generators flew off the shelves.  My parents went and purchased a brand new gasoline generator.  My in-laws did as well.  Last summer I helped my mother in-law clean out her garage.  There, still in the box was the generator.  I asked her if she had ever ran the generator.  Her reply was simple,  “No.  We’ve never needed it.”  I then asked “How do you know it will work?”  Another simple reply,  “Why wouldn’t it.  It’s brand new in the box.”  I made her help me get it out of the box and I tried to start the generator.  Do I need to tell you the result?  After a couple of hours exhausting my small engine starting tricks, the generator produced no more electricity than a rock would.  She insisted that we take it back to the store and get it replaced.  “Ma’am, we have a 30 day return policy.”  We called the company.  “Ma’am, the warranty has expired.”  The next step was to take it to a small engine repair shop, but we ran out of time that day.  Guess where the generator is.  In it’s box, back in the garage and it has never made it to the repair shop.    My parents have a similar generator sitting in the garage.  There is a major difference between the generators.  My in-laws have opened their box.  My parent’s have not even broken the tape on the box to make sure all the parts are there.  I have tried to explain to them that their warranty expired without even the box being opened to make sure that the box actually contains a generator and not a couple of sand bags.   

This spring I purchased a tri-fuel generator with a well known engine and a well known power house.  I was very excited for the day it would arrive.  That night I went to fire it up.  It needed engine oil.  I didn’t have any.  I just assumed that it would come with some.  It was not till the next day that I was able to get some and fire the generator up using gasoline.  That was back in February.  It was just during this last week that I was able to find and purchase all the “not included” parts to be able to run the engine off of propane.  It was a good thing I didn’t need to run it using propane prior to this last week.  The next step is to get what is needed to connect the generator to the natural gas line that runs to the house.  Both my in-laws as well as my parents are always curious why I spend so much time working on the generator.  There is no need for it during the summer.  My answer is always, “I don’t want to have to worry about it when I do need it.” 

Walking down this long road of assumptions brings me to another recent event in my prepper world. I have a lot of new work boots in boxes.  The company that I used to work for would buy us new work boots every six months regardless of the condition of our present boots.  I take good care of my boots and they normally last me a long time.  Needless to say I was able to stock pile my work boots.  As a prepper, this is a great situation to be in.  I just recently had to get the pair that I have been wearing for over a year, resoled.  So, while they were at the cobbler, I got out a new pair of boots.  I had not even worn this new pair of boots for a full week when the sole on both boots just peeled off.  So much for assuming that a new pair of boots ought to act like a new pair of boots.  I have now worn all of my boots for at least a week to ensure they meet my expectations.  Now I am sure that my boots will function when they are needed.  Just as my boots could not meet expectations out of the box, it is imperative to wear and use your bug out bag and the equipment in your bag.  The very next day after my first outing with my new BOB, I ordered all new buckles for the lap belt.  The ones that the bag came with would just loosen on their own.  If I had not tested the bag I would have never known.  Making the 200 mile trek to my retreat with bad buckles would have been more eventful then it should been.    

As preppers, we purchase a lot of equipment.  Most of this equipment will not be used to any great extent until a crisis arises.  Do not assume that your equipment will work as advertised.  Test it.  Use it.  It is during these times of use that the warranty is important.  A warranty is there to protect you from a manufacturing fault and to ensure that everything works as advertised.  My final scenario has to do with an emergency water pump that my father and I decided to build this spring.  We had to replace the actual down hole pump that ran his sprinkler system.  While we were waiting on the pump to come in, we decided to build a hand powered water pump using ¾ inch PVC and a check valve. The design was simple.  The parts were easy to work with.  The PVC cement did not want to function as cement should.  We primed and glued.  The joints would just not hold.  We even let it set over night.  The joints would just come apart.  It took an entire week of working in the evenings after work and a new bottle of cement to finally get water to come out the top of the pipe.  It sure was a good thing we did not assume that PVC cement would work when we needed it the most.  Remember that assumptions are just that, assumptions. 

A crisis is only a crisis if a tried and true solution is not available.  Work with your gear and become familiar with every aspect of your gear.  It is only thru testing and training that your assumptions will be eliminated.