Colonel Jeff Cooper once wrote that he was born in another country. Born and raised in the US before the Great Depression, the country of his youth was no longer. It had been hijacked by pointy headed socialists with academic degrees and not a trace of common sense. At 50 years of age I not only agree, but maintain that the “New America” based upon a globalized economy, Federalized powers, and an Urban-centered society is dying. Our great country is dying and our great cities will burn in the funeral pyre.
Most Americans know that survival in our great cities, deserts, and marginal climate areas of the US would not be possible without continued delivery of basic Supplies (food and gasoline), Services (water, electrical power, natural gas), and Civil Order (rule of law, generally accepted currency). What they may not know is that these great cities have no great food warehouses, no great fuel tank farms, few electrical power plants, few water storage reservoirs, and they have disarmed the law abiding public at every turn. These supplies are transported by thousands of semi trucks, ships, barges, and trains every single day. If a sudden crisis disrupts transportation, if we lose the use of our interstate highways or the diesel fuel to transport supplies, everyone in these cities will either have to leave or they will die.
Recent hurricanes, recessions, and terrorist events are reminders that our modern society is fragile and that critical supplies, services, and civil order will likely be interrupted by any major event. Look at what happened to New Orleans (population 480,000) during Hurricane Katrina. More than half the population left early, but when the storm hit, tens of thousands either would not or could not leave. Now imagine these barbaric conditions in a city like Phoenix (population 2 million) or Los Angeles (population 10 million). Now imagine it happening all across the US if our oil refineries are either destroyed or the world runs out of crude oil.
Transportation in the US is totally dependent on crude oil and most of this oil comes from folks who hate us. The supplies underground and our ability to find new supplies are diminishing and no one knows how much is left. Even without the potential for a renewed terrorist attack using WMDs, or the long dreaded west coast mega-quake, our cities will not be sustainable without some new technology. Renewable power sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal can produce electricity but do not effectively power transportation. Hopefully most Americans can be sufficiently motivated to move out the cities with their families, but those who will not listen must feel.
Should I Stay or Should I Go?
I think it is a common belief by newly awaken survivalist that they can keep living in a big city until the stuff actually hits the fan and then bug out with their vehicle and all of the survival gear and prepared food. I am curious, have any of you actually tried this? Have you taken the time and effort to load your vehicle with thousands of pounds of guns, ammo, survival gear, and freeze dried food? Have you then driven through a major city, a long distance interstate trip, stopped for the night, or had car trouble? And what if you are forced to bug out without shelter and a considerable amount of food, have you really improved your chances for survival?
I have and the whole process was a pain in the . I hooked up my one ton pickup to my 5th wheel trailer, filled it with the guns, ammo, tools, extra fuel, and food storage, and the rig grossed at 18,000 lbs. Let me tell you this was not bugging out, this was crawling out. Even powered by a Cummins Diesel, nothing weighing 9 tons moves quickly or escapes over steep or narrow roads. I also tried towing an open trailer filled with a tractor and tools cross country and learned about road trash puncturing trailer tires and criminals loitering at rest stops and RV parks. Fortunately, these problems surfaced during normal times when the highways are open, fuel is available, and I was the only one freaking out. My experience is telling me that the best response is to move away from the cities before an event. Move to a more secure area now. Preposition your survival tools and food storage at a secure site before the stuff really hits the fan. Then find a way to move there your self.
I have read all the government’s emergency preparedness books talking about folks pulling together, one big nation singing Kumbaya. But I have also read the postings from folks who were late evacuating New Orleans. Many of them were threatened, robbed, and assaulted by their neighbors simply because they were better prepared. I do not know if this entitlement mentality is really that widespread, but experience suggests that Americans will get scared and will act like animals.
Deciding When to Leave; Cooper’s Colors for a Social Crisis.
Jeff Cooper also devised a series of situational awareness colors to allow his self defense students to make proper decisions and know when to use deadly force to protect their lives and family. Borrowing Cooper’s Colors for a social crisis I suggest the following:
Condition White) Circa 1981-1988: Following the Vietnam war, Watergate, and the Iran hostage crisis, the US was ready for a positive change. During the Reagan years we challenged the Soviet Union and emerged as the world’s lone supper power. Despite some evidence to the contrary, we felt that we had no reason to be concerned by terrorism. Paul Volcker tamed inflation by inducing a severe recession. We all shared the economic pain, then we shared the rewards of a growing and stable economy combined with low inflation. Social changes were being made slowly and with participation from the general public. The Government rarely took violent actions against protesters. Crime was random and quickly dealt with by law enforcement.
Tough times, but the US government was working for the People.
Condition Yellow) Circa 1989-1998: The US is struck repeatedly by terrorists at home and abroad. The Government treats this as a criminal manner. The economy fluctuates but appears to correct itself rapidly and without visible government interference. The US starts pursuing free trade and globalization treaties. Manufacturing, agricultural, and finally high wage jobs are being outsourced. High risk mortgages and investments are legalized and encouraged. Presidents Bush (I) and Clinton start talking about and building a “New World Order”. Social changes are being made to protect and benefit the people in power, without participation from the general public. The Government begins to track, infiltrate, and take deadly action against small religious groups and grass roots militias. Law abiding citizens are blamed for violent crime and gun ownership is highly regulated. The only bright spot during this decade is the results of the 1994 midterm election and the subsequent Contract with America.
A break of trust between the US Government and the People. Citizens should store guns, ammo, food, and fuel. Prepare financially, physically, and mentally for change.
Condition Orange) Circa 1999-2006: The US is struck repeatedly by terrorists at home and abroad. The Government responds by aggressive military action designed to change the conditions in countries hosting terrorists. The economy fluctuates between extremes of growth and recession, as if no one knows the true worth of these commodities and major corporations. The Government begins to spend massive amounts of money on the war and hides this spending off budget. Price increases affect the availability of food and fuel. Social changes are being made without participation of the citizens or even the US Congress. The most offensive of these changes are rammed down the throat of a disbelieving public by the courts and petty bureaucrats. The heavy handed tactics of the State and Federal Government begin expanding the number and boldness of protest groups, well ahead of their attempts to control them. Crime is increasingly organized by gangs, carried out by minors and illegal aliens, and is funded by illegal drugs. Law enforcement is not effective against this and many believe the problem is intractable.
A second break of trust. Citizens should liquidate their financial assets, purchase and store critical supplies and solar panels, and move to safer locations.
Condition Red) Circa 2007 – ????: High risk loans, derivatives, and credit default swaps cause huge financial losses and trigger irrational stimulus spending. The US Treasury and US Federal Reserve start taking up major ownership stakes in US corporations, then use this position to control the means of production. They announce plans to create a Federal domestic police force. This may be used to enforce new requirements for domestic passports, travel restrictions, and to deal with any visible protests. The Obama Administration is full of folks committed to new laws regulating guns ownership and banning the sale of effective defensive weapons, ammo, and reloading components. Large scale energy, income, and sales tax increases are planned. I believe that Americans will again be deprived from owning real [precious metals] money. Our currency will be devalued by perhaps 80% to offset the massive Federal spending. Price controls and rationing of food and fuel will be introduced by executive order. During the Great Depression, FDR banned the private holding of gold and foreign currency. US dollars (gold certificates) were replaced by Federal Reserve Notes. Many banks were closed without returning deposits to account holders and what little cash was left in the hands of the people was devalued by the Treasury by 40%.
Many folks are moving out of large cities. They are buying rural land and planting a garden. They are buying and hoarding guns, ammo, food, fuel, and looking to buy gold and silver. While economic conditions appear bad, the break of trust between the Government and the People is more reminiscent of the Civil War than the Great Depression.
Can You Make an Orderly Transition?
a) Moving Out of the City but Keeping Your Job.
Many folks simply can not leave their big city job and feel trapped. For them, moving your family out of the city and keeping your present job, and commuting back and forth may be the best interim solution. You might look at public transportation in your area and see if you could buy a home near this. Also consider owning a Jeep or a pickup that can contain survival tools, food storage, hiking boots, even a mountain bike and commute using that vehicle when you feel that a crisis could be imminent. You need to practice for this occasionally to find out how to drive home without using freeways, or clogged intersections, or having to refill your gas tank. If you plan on biking home, why not try it once a month. Find out now if it is a viable alternative.
b) Career Changes that Improve Your Preparedness.
Some friends of mine recently underwent a significant career change. They left their research position at a US government lab in California to take a college professorship in a small Midwestern town. There are many opportunities for folks to change careers and significantly improving their preparedness level without losing their career and every thing they have built. Creating a portable small business, building a farm or ranch, taking a related job in small town America are all good ways to improve your position without the big and scary step of quitting and living off your savings.
c) Transfers and Early Retirement.
I moved out of Los Angeles 25 years ago, to a small desert town three hours away. I soon plan to retire and move even further away from California and its enormous insatiable and unsustainable cities and their outrageous politics. Often times these transitional changes take years of planning and savings to carry out successfully. For me, the years of planning and savings are worth it. If you are just a few years away from retirement, you might want to find out the rules and calculate how to retire early and how much such a change would cost you in the long run.
How Can You Bug Out Safely?
d) What are you Bugging Out From.
This may be the most important question. I believe that you must know what you fear before you can plan what to do, and ultimately where to go. What could convince you that you must leave your current home? Are you worried about a natural disaster such as a hurricane, an earthquake, or a tsunami. Perhaps you are concerned about a 1930s type depression, a renewed terrorist strike, or a combination of events that teardown the rule of law and allow rioting and conflict on a nationwide scale. If you are just worried about keep yourself employed in our current economic mess, you might consider mobility and job skills more important than bugging out. But if you have come to the conclusion that the American society will fracture when subjected to enough stress and that the inevitable reaction to almost any sudden crisis will be rioting and nationwide loss of the rule of law, you might want to consider moving to an area where you fit in and are accepted by the community.
e) Selecting the best route and location.
Leaving your “Big City” job and moving back to your home town is a pretty popular idea right now, perhaps even smarter than trying to start a new life in a new and strange part of the country. I grew up on a small farm in the Midwest and am planning to move back to a small farm. When I talk to my new neighbors I find that I actually have more in common with them culturally that the folks I have worked with here in California for over 25 years. Truth is I am still a farm boy who is more concerned with my farm and livestock than I am with a Lexus or a wide screen entertainment system. No one seems to be much impressed about my “Big City” job but every one is stoked that I am a qualified gunsmith and can trap beaver out of the creek.
Some good friends of mine moved back to their home town of Sandpoint, Idaho about 12 years ago. Northern Idaho seems like a nice enough place when I visited a back then, but even a couple of local boys with engineering degrees had a hard time landing a full time job. Perhaps moving where you can actually find a job and where you can still afford some nice farm land would make more sense than moving to someone else’s idea of an ideal location, (Sorry, James).
The same applies to your route selection. Staying away from the inner city areas that always seem to be the flash points for social unrest seems obvious. But perhaps moving out of the big city early is more important than planning the best escape route and waiting too long. If you must wait until the last minute you should consider finding a bug out location that is within a very short drive, say only a few hours away. Another advantage of have a “local” bug out location is using as a vacation spot on long weekends. Suddenly, taking a week off and driving out of the city is more of a regular occurrence. If you practice it often, it is more likely to work under the added stress of a real crisis event. [JWR Adds: The drawback to this is that if your retreat is in close proximity for you, then it is also in close proximity for The Golden Horde. A three hour drive out of Los Angeles, is just about where most refugees will be running out of fuel. Choose your retreat locale wisely, well-away from exit corridors and natural lines of drift.]
f) What to Carry, What to Pre-position.
Even if you have a very secure location to preposition or cache goods and equipment, I believe that you need to store the primary means of survival at your home and be prepared to carry it with you. I define the primary means of survival as food, water, shelter, clothing, and protection from immediate harm. Secondary stuff would be the means to sustain life beyond the immediate threat, i.e. productive land to grow food, livestock, tractors and farm equipment, means of producing electrical power, reload ammunition, trade goods, gold and silver. I recommend that you keep the primary stuff at home and have the means of transporting it to safety at a moment’s notice. You may choose to store the secondary stuff at your retreat location (and take the risk of theft) or at home (depending upon your ability to transport it). In practice, I would suggest that the heaviest and most bulky secondary items should be pre-positioned or cached at the retreat location.
g) Selecting a Bug Out Vehicle.
If you plan to–or fear you may have to–make a lengthy bug out trip with a loaded vehicle during crisis conditions you might consider the fuel range and load capacity as the most important considerations. While recently designed gasoline vehicles tend to be very reliable and more fuel efficient than trucks built in the 1970s, their fuel mileage is still much lower than an equivalent turbo diesel with a manual transmission. Plus it is easier to add significant auxiliary fuel storage tanks to a diesel. My number one recommendation for a bug out vehicle is a 1994 thru 1997 Dodge Cummins one ton pickup with a 5 speed manual transmission and 3.54 rear end. Add a 90 gal Aux. fuel/tool box combo for 1,900 mile range without stopping to refuel.
What If You Leave Too Early?
h) Leaving When You Should.
Human nature is a funny thing. Through out history folks have remained in very dangerous conditions, literally losing their own life, because they are afraid of public ridicule for running away. This was particularly true with the Jews in 1930s Germany. While leaving may have been difficult and even prohibited by the Nazis, it was possible. So why did so many folks bow to social pressure to remain. Who cares what the sheeple think, learn to run like a scared little rabbit. If you can not move to a safe area permanently, then find a way to move there temporarily. Look for an opportunity to take a sabbatical, or take time off to care for an aging parent, or to work part time. Look for anything that allows you to leave the most dangerous area at the first hint of a crisis. Yes, your friends may harass you for bugging out too early and slinking back a couple of weeks later. Just remember who they are and invite only those folks who seem to understand the risks we appear to be facing.
i) Leaving Yourself a Way to Return.
Please do not plan to max out your credit cards, pull out of your retirement accounts, or burn bridges with your boss. History is full of folks who thought they knew the end of the world was coming, only to be forced to deal with reality the next day. Did you ever hear of the 1840s religious group, the Millerites? They gave away everything they owned because their leader knew that Christ would return on a particular day. Leave yourself a safe way to return to your old life if you decision to bug out is wrong. While I believe that it is a much better plan to live in a safe area all the time than try to predict the event, I also recognize that many people can not move quickly enough. I believe that the Bible states that the end will arrive like a thief in the night. No notice, no warning, one second every thing is fine and the next second the world has changed radically.
j) Living with Your Mistakes.
It is possible that you will be caught up in a crisis in spite of all your preparations. Perhaps you needed to travel to a big city hospital or take a long range flight on just the wrong day. Perhaps a crisis develops while you are living your life and not really paying any attention. Life is not going to send you any emails telling you that the stuff has hit the fan and you are now on your own. I recommend that you always carry a bug out bag with the basic survival food and equipment, and bring along your knowledge, skills, experience with you. Carry enough gold, silver, and cash to replace some of your preparations and allow you to purchase the means to get home if you are caught taking a long distance flight.
Summary.
There really is not any way to know what they future is going to look like. We could experience a long degrading slide into the dust bin of history (France, Spain, Japan) or in a blinding flash of cataclysm (1917 Russia, 1934 Germany, 2001 Argentina). We could be looking at a repeat of the Great Depression, a World Was over the remaining oil supplies, or a second Civil War. What I do know is that our Government has been corrupted and is responding to the unbridled greed of an elite few and against the needs of the many. Studying our own history and the history of other developed nations under similar shows two clear possible futures: Those that shared the pain recovered, those that spared the elite at the expense of the many suffered from long debilitating economic depressions that often decayed into Civil War, Fascism, or Communism.
I would rather face the future surrounded by like-minded people in an area that can support both my life and a sustainable society. A society that is not dependent on long distance transportation of critical goods, non-renewable energy sources, centralized control and just in time deliveries, or intensive industrialized agriculture. I was born on a small farm in the breadbasket of the world, and I want my country back!