Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people." – Friedrich A.  Hayek, 1974 Nobel Prize Winner in Economics



Note from JWR:

Today we present two more entries for Round 39 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), and E.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak F-50 hand well pump (a $349 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, C.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and D.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 39 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Mobile Prepping, by D.W.

We are a mobile culture. The vast majority of us begin our day by getting into a vehicle and driving to work.  Some of us, once we reach work drive again to reach work details. We are accustomed to driving everywhere.  We drive to the store for groceries and supplies; we drive to schools, work, doctors, etc.

When the SHTF most of us who live in a densely populated area are not going to be entirely comfortable just hunkering down where we live and hoping for the best.  Those that choose to bug-in in a suburban or urban environment are pretty much going to be sitting ducks for the lawlessness that will follow. 

You may have a decent supply of firearms and ammunition, fortified defenses and large stocks of provisions, but in reality most every house is susceptible to penetration and destruction. Fire is a prime example.  Are your defenses such that if your house was burning down around you that you could bug-in and survive? If you haven’t considered that then you should.  You may have a concrete basement with hidden entrances and exits but it’s sitting beneath a large pile of flammables.  It’s going to get mighty hot and hard to breathe. If you’re in an apartment that’s not on the ground floor, you’re in even more danger.

Of course you may take out a few marauders before they realize you aren’t going to be easy pickings, but word will quickly spread that you are there and you aren’t letting anyone in nor giving away your provisions without a fight.  Believe me, most of the people doing the raiding are not going to benevolent and generous and just walk away and leave you alone because you’re a hard target.  The mind set will be if they can’t have it you can’t either. Fire will be one of the first thoughts to enter into the equation if they can’t breach your defenses. Heavy equipment can also make your defenses inappropriate in one fell swoop as well.  Don’t worry, if you manage to discourage them the first go round, they’ll be back.

If you’re location cannot withstand burning down around you or being structurally destroyed then you still need a mobile plan.

If you’re on foot with nothing more than a bugout bag, defensive weapons and some skill sets then that’s the most basic level and you’re really going to be on your own.  Your survivability level is somewhere around zero to ten percent. There is no way to predict or control the situation as you are subject to all manner of environmental conditions and threats whether they be natural, hostile parties or geographical.  The best you can do is to have several predetermined and reconnoitered routes that you have physically traversed and are in good enough physical condition to complete and then hope for the best and pray a lot. And stay concealed as much as possible.

Those who seek to take what is yours and/or do you harm are more than likely going to have much better intel on the immediate urban/suburban environment of the streets than you are.  That’s their domain and they will quickly occupy the most defensible positions to their best advantage.  They also have much more experience than you do on living with little or nothing in despicable conditions.  This will be their turf.  They already occupy it, you don’t.  Sure, there are plenty of dumb criminals out there but once packs are formed they will have intelligent, crafty leaders who have the knowledge and experience to direct them intelligently.

I advise that everyone should have a mobile preparation plan in mind regardless of whether you need to bugout to reach a retreat or safer location, or you’re already at your retreat and well stocked for long-term survival.  Any fortification or retreat can be breached or laid to siege.

Urban and suburban dwellers should keep a well maintained vehicle(s) with enough fuel and reserves to reach where you plan to go without having to refuel from an outside source.  Supplies should be pre-packed and able to be loaded in less than fifteen minutes or less if not kept in the vehicles or trailers ahead of time. 

Optimally you should always be gathering intel and maintain a constant situational awareness of ongoing events. The best case scenario is to know when to go before the SHTF. Not after.

In any emergency you are going to have multiple situations to consider that can change at any given moment.  Having mobile preps covered ahead of time will allow you to concentrate on the situation at hand and not be distracted wondering whether or not you remembered to bring everything or what route(s) to take.

For now, it’s best to map out several routes, drive them under various weather conditions and take note of areas that could prove difficult under varying conditions.

I’m not going to cover the myriad of vehicles that could or should be considered.  Much like firearms and various calibers, when it comes down to it something is better than nothing and have what you can afford.  Just don’t go overboard if you can’t afford it.  In reality a vehicle merely gets you from point A to point B.

Cargo trailers, camp trailers and/or motor homes enhance your departure time by being able to be pre-loaded and inventoried ahead of time and simply hooked up and/or driven away almost immediately. They can also provide longer term amenities if you can’t reach your destination as soon as you might have thought.

Convoys will have better chances of success in hostile territory than lone vehicles.  If you have a group you should work out the logistics of what vehicles take what positions, what frequencies and/or  channels you will utilize for unsecure communications.  This might include code words, hand-signals, phrases and uncommon languages that could be used in-transit in the case that others may be listening in.

Convoys should have patrol vehicles, point vehicles, defensive vehicles and pre-planned defensive strategies in the case of attack. Even in war zones it is rare that every vehicle in a convoy is taken out or the entire convoy captured or killed.  A convoy gives you a fight or flight response to any hostile or emergency situation.  It goes without saying that tools and implements to clear roads of obstacles and vehicles should definitely be considered.

All vehicles should be armed and members practice various positions of defense while driving.  It’s not as easy as one might imagine to take aim and fire while moving at a high rate of speed, let alone while performing evasive maneuvers. Take the time to consider what positions in a vehicle are best for firing from and with what types of weapons.

Nearly every apocalyptic, post-apocalyptic , zombie and sci-fi movie that has even come close to portraying such a scenario rarely does not contain some sort of armed convoy scenario and for good reason.  Without mobility we increase the capability for failure tenfold in any given situation.  Flight is limited. If our retreats become no longer safe we’re going to have to bugout.  If we need to reach one before we can be safe, mobile preparations will need to be considered. Plain and simple.
Another point I wish to make with this article is for those of you who don’t have the resources for a retreat and don’t have any safe houses away from the chaos that you can bugout to then considering a short-term mobile solution may be for you.

It’s much easier to gather a group of people with a similar mindset in a similar situation than it is to find an existing retreat to take you in if you have little in the way of resources or developed skills. Let’s face it, there are plenty of “preppers” out there that just can’t afford much of what they would need to feel totally secure.  A group can alleviate some of the worry about how you’re going to make it.

You can form a group and pool your resources to purchase a low-cost undeveloped parcel of land in a remote location where you can rendezvous and figure it out from there or at least cache supplies.  Over time you can make developments to improve the land for long term habitation. Members could rotate spending time there to make improvements for the benefit of all.  It would also allow those without much in the way of expendable resources to coordinate with others in their mobile group so that each member can focus on stocking equipment and supplies that would benefit the entire group instead of everyone trying to gather everything alone. It’s better than being on your own and having no destination at all. 

If you can’t allocate the resources for a parcel of land your group can all agree on a remote location to rendezvous as far away from the immediate chaos as possible.  That will at least give you some breathing space.  I doubt there will be many forest rangers or BLM out ticketing your group for overstaying at a campground or camping in the desert or mountains in an area undesignated for camping or long-term stays.

I do not advise a constant state of mobility.  It just won’t work.  Fuel is going to be hard to come by and you cannot maintain long-term stability or defensibility in a mobile situation. For long-term survival you’re going to have to settle in somewhere.  You cannot exist on stored supplies alone. 

Having a good mobile prep plan can at the least get you through the most critical event horizon.  Of course in some situations it’s not going to be the best alternative or the most practical.  I offer it here as an alternative mindset to be included as part of your preparation plan, not the ultimate solution.

But for those who don’t have as many resources and even for those that do, mobile preparations should be taken seriously and added to any preparedness plan. If you live in a highly populated urban or suburban area you might want to consider storing your main vehicles/trailers/etc., on the outskirts of town and develop an alternate but efficient means to reach them in a SHTF scenario.

There are many factors to consider that are unique to where you live.  I just want to advise that your mobile preps consider more than just jumping in your vehicle with a 72 hour bag and heading for the hills. One should take into account the worst case scenario in your present plans and plan accordingly.

It’s easy to envision how it will all come down and how you respond, but just like on the battlefield things usually take on the age old adage of SNAFU. (Situation Normal All Fouled Up).
Here I shall outline my own present mobile preps in very general terms for the sake of OPSEC .  Our retreat is approximately 400 miles from our present location although we shall be living there by late Spring so our own plan will change at that time to consider the change of circumstance and location.

We currently have 5 alternate routes planned to reach the retreat location which does lie within the American Redoubt area. Three of the routes allow us to reach the location in just over 6 hours under optimal driving conditions.  Most of the routes we will utilize do not require us to pass through any towns over a 10,000 population.  Two of the routes pass through less than 500 until we are within an hour and then only one town with a population of 3000. 

We personally utilize two vehicles and two trailers. One of the vehicles is a 33 foot customized self-contained motor home, the other an older American made SUV.  The motor home is kept with the tanks full with a 600 to 900 mile range depending on conditions and terrain.  The SUV is never below ¾ of a tank and the stocked trailer holds two 5 gallon jerry cans on each side for a total of 40 gallons of fuel for the SUV. This is adequate for both vehicles to reach the retreat location without external sources.  Both vehicles are under a strict maintenance program to keep all systems viable and working.

Both vehicles obviously have trailer hitches with the required towing capacity for their respective trailers. One large cargo trailer is always stocked, having custom built shelving containing a 1 year supply of foodstuffs, 1 month supply of drinking water, a working stocked freezer, propane cooktop, 12 volt lights, an inverter and batteries recharged by solar as well as kerosene lamps, propane heater and more.  There is enough room left over that it could be slept in if needed. This trailer is somewhat heavy and is meant to be pulled by the motor home but we have tested it on a 120 mile drive towing it with the SUV with no problems though a bit slow going over steep grades.

The second, smaller cargo trailer is left empty to accommodate tools and equipment that can be loaded in under 15 minutes.  All tools and equipment that are not in immediate use are stored in marked containers and fit in the empty trailer.  We have test loaded it as well and can have it fully loaded with two of us loading in under fifteen minutes if need be.

The motor home is stocked with approximately 1 to 2 months of foodstuffs, a 90 gallon water tank, internal plumbing, 12V DC solar power, 110 with inverter or shore power and propane heat , water and stove.  We have also added a small wood cook stove with oven for redundancy and alternate fuel sources.  Communications consist of CB, Police scanner and two-way hand held radios.  Internet capability for mobile travel is via cellular modem though we do not depend upon it but have it as long as it there and a cell signal can be received. We keep a small inventory of spare parts deemed most likely to fail and a complete set of tools and equipment in the basement storage areas.

The SUV contains two 48 hour Bugout bags as well as a 72 hour vehicle kit at all times.  It has ample supplies and equipment for winter and summer use and can be slept in comfortably. We have ample weapons for defense and tactical use and train regularly. We have a few other individuals that would convoy in two other vehicles if need be but currently we have no long term plans to include them in the retreat locale as they are working on their own solution.

If needed we could abandon the motor home and continue on in the SUV and continue down to making it on foot in the worse case scenario.  This is our basic mobile plan.  Once we reach the retreat things change.



A Classical Education: The Greatest Educational Opportunity for Our Children by J. M.

My wife and I are preppers primarily for our children.  Though we have lived rich, full lives, they are not yet even adolescents.  If what we are prepping for happens, it will be this generation that will rebuild this nation to greatness.  We want them to be equipped intellectually and spiritually.  We want them to understand the influences of the Greeks, Romans and British that helped our Founding Fathers craft the greatest nation this planet has known.  I refuse to entrust America to those that do not understand these truths or those that are not up to the task.

When asked what school our kids attend, I used to say that “We homeschool our children.”  Now I more accurately say, “my wife homeschools our children and I wholeheartedly support it.”  By the time my workday is done, the kids are done.  No homework – that’s one of the great blessings of homeschooling.  They become proficient in subjects and then they move on (unless they are reviewing, of course).

But we are not simply lazy by not wanting to help our kids with homework in the evenings.  We had our oldest in a great Christian private school for 2 years.  Then we moved her home because we believed (and believe it even more fervently now) that homeschooling was simply the best educational opportunity for our children. 

For the first two years at home, my wife used the “K-12” curriculum.  It was good.  The following year went from good to the best.  That year, a friend introduced us to the Classical Education model.  The Classical Education model has been used for most of human history and yet, I hadn’t even been aware of it.  Modern education is outcome based.  I am a product of outcome based education (I figure that will excuse any grammar errors that are contained herein).  

The advantages of a classical education are many.  More than anything, it teaches and equips students for a lifetime of learning.  Our kids are part of Classical Conversations, a nationwide homeschool community started by Leigh Bortins in 1996.  The students meet once per week as a group for 24 weeks throughout the school year.  Classical Conversations provides a curriculum and a forum for accountability and interaction with other students that are experiencing the same rich educational opportunity.   The mission statement of Classical Conversations is for students “to know God and to make Him known.”

Modern Education vs. Classical Education
Modern education places the student in the center of a wheel with each subject forming the spokes of a wheel feeding information (segregated into separate unrelated subjects) to the child.  Most private Christian schools add a spoke of the wheel called Religion or Theology.  The other subjects in that Christian school might incorporate a couple of Bible verses here or there but the curriculum is not integrated with our Creator.  A classical education places God at the center of the wheel with all the subjects pointing to Him and from Him.  All the subjects are also integrated with each other (i.e., pointing to each other).  How can created beings study history, science or math and not focus on the Creator of this universe, these people and His place throughout history and the events of mankind?

Here is some additional insights from the Classical Conversations web site.

Classical Conversations combines classical learning and a Biblical world view.
Classical Conversations’ programs model the three stages of classical learning—grammar, dialectic, and rhetoric. Using age appropriate methods, children are taught the tools for studying any subject. Grammar stage is for ages 2-12. Grammar is imparting knowledge through memorizing of facts, facts and more facts: history, science, English grammar, poems, geography, Latin, math, books of the Bible, anything that parents know and wish to impart to their children. The tools of memorization are repeating the information and or action, over and over through reading it out loud to your child over and over, asking your child to repeat it, singing the information, drawing maps, and games like Jeopardy. The Dialectic Stage, ages 12-15 is taking all of the knowledge (facts) a child has learned plus new information and processing it in their minds to gain understanding. The Rhetoric Stage, ages 15-19, have gained a mastery of information and understanding. They take the information and demonstrate it to others through various methods.

The Classical model emphasizes mastery of facts during the early years. This gives students a foundation on which to build later learning and a solid framework where ideas can be categorized and compared as students mature. (For more information on the classical education model, read Dorothy Sayers’ 1948 essay The Lost Tools of Learning.)

Classical Conversations is set up in a three cycle format, and every three years the information repeats. So if a family joins when their child is in Kindergarten, the child will get the same base information twice through their sixth grade year. Parents are free to take the base information presented in Classical and expand on it in anyway they feel so led. Every Classical Conversation’s community in the country does the same cycle each year. This year is Cycle 3.

Cycle 3 consists of:

History: American History, Presidents, Preamble and the Bill of Rights

History timeline (cards are available through Veritas Press. (Classical Conversations is creating their own History timeline cards which should be on the market, very soon),

Geography: American Geography ,

Science: Human body and Chemistry,

Math facts.

Latin: John 1:1-7.

Grammar: Verbs/irregular verbs, sentence parts, clauses, Sentence structures and patterns.

 

Cycle 1 (next year) consists of:

History: Ancient, Medieval and early modern

History timeline

Geography:
Middle East, Asia, Africa and South America

Science: Biology, Geology, weather.

Math
facts

Latin: Noun Cases through 5th declension

Grammar:
Prepositions, Linking verbs

 

Cycle 2 consists of:

History: Medieval history through Free elections in South Africa, European

History timeline

Geography: South America and Caribbean

Science: Ecology and physics.

Math facts

Latin: Verb conjugations

Grammar: pronouns, eight parts of speech, adverbs, four kinds of sentences

As I said, my wife is doing all the work here.  I’m largely an observer (with the never-ending desire to get more involved) and I must say I’m truly blown away by the amount of information our four kids are learning and what a rich experience this is for them.  Oh how I wish I had this opportunity when I was young.  My wife is also learning amazing new things as she shares this journey with them.   I am unspeakably proud of my wife and our children.  

The Classical Conversations program is nearly doubling in size every year and I am not surprised.  It is a fantastic model.  It is very challenging and my wife and I are looking forward to our oldest (12) to enter the Challenge Program (7-12 grade).  We recently attended a parents meeting for this next phase and I left there so excited for our kids!  They will learn Latin, debate skills, try a mock murder case in 8th grade, utilize the Socratic method to solve problems in groups and critique their peers in a safe and encouraging environment.  Seventh graders will be able to draw the world map (freehand) and label every country and major geographic features (over 400 items!)  By 11th and 12th grade the students lead most of the discussions throughout their daily session.  My mind wonders what college or employer wouldn’t desperately want these students after this rigorous training. 

The Most Coveted T-shirt in 5th Grade
Classical Conversations has an annual “contest” in the Foundations program (K-6 grade) where students test for “Memory Master”.  For successful completion, the winners get a T-shirt.  I believe it is fitting that the “prize” is something that will either fall apart, sit in the back of the drawer or be outgrown in a couple years since the true “prize” is mastery of the task at hand which will serve them for a lifetime.  They will learn firsthand the amazing capacity of their brains and have the confidence to face great challenges in the years to come.

Memory Master is reciting from memory, before the school director.  It amounts to over 1,000 pieces of unique information, with all the work learned during the course of one year.  The bulk of the information changes every year while some items are constant, such as the timeline of human history (containing over 160 events) and math facts.  Examples of the material that needs to be committed to memory :

Science: What is an element?  “An element is a basic chemical substance defined by its atomic number and atomic mass.”  (this is considered 1 of the 1,000 pieces of information referenced above)
History: Tell me about Pearl Harbor.  “On December 7, 1941, the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, causing the U.S. to join the Allies in World War II.”
Geography: Trails.  “Cumberland Road, Santa Fe Trail, Mormon Trail, Gila Trail, Old Spanish Trail, California Trail, Oregon Trail”
Grammar: Independent Clause.  “An independent clause expresses a complete thought like a sentence.”
Math: The Commutative Law.  “The Commutative Law for addition: a+b = b+a.  The Commutative Law for multiplication: a x b = b x a.”
Latin: Latin Nouns.  “vita /life; lux/light; homo/hominum nomen/name” (they are learning John 1:1-7 in Latin and English this year)

The material must be recited in four different levels of testing with the final round allowing for no mistakes.  The last year when our three older kids were testing for Memory Master was quite an anxious time since I knew how hard they had each worked on the material – and then it all comes down to a performance test (which I believe is great preparation for future tests in life, in school and by employers, etc.).

A final reason to consider homeschooling is the multiple advantages offered for preppers.

For Preppers, homeschooling offers the following advantages:

  1. Provide your kids with an unapologetic Christian world view that allows for a foundational understanding of the greatness of America (the America of our Founding Fathers) in addition to the critical influences of ancient Greek, Roman and later European cultures
  2. Homeschool wherever you live which offers the opportunity to move to your retreat location now  – or the opportunity to spend part of the year in more than one location.  I like to joke that our kids go to one of the most exclusive private schools in the country (not a joke, I guess.  I wouldn’t want them anywhere else).
  3. The cost/value of a homeschool education beats any private school education
  4. You can shape the curriculum to include or exclude whatever you want (subject to any restrictions that your state may impose) such as gardening, cooking, homesteading skills, etc. while you may choose to exclude environmentalism and multiculturalism.
  5. A guaranty of consistent, loving instructors that know your children better than any other teacher on earth could know them.
  6. Most children are directing their own schedule and instruction in 6th or 7th grade – which frees up the parent to focus on the critical years for younger students (reading and math fundamentals – so they can be independent in 6th grade) or frees up large blocks of the day when the youngest child achieves largely independent coursework.
  7. Homeschooling is highly adaptable for children with special needs.  In the words of one of the Classical Conversations Challenge Instructors (8th grade), every child is a gift from God and not a societal castaway destined to sit in a corner of a classroom with a “special” teacher.

And I’m sure I’m missing some others that your great readers might want to add.

I can’t recommend a Classical homeschooling education enough and it has been one of the greatest blessings for our family.   I expect it will have a generational impact on this country and an eternal impact for God’s Kingdom.



Letter Re: A Parent’s Guide to Surviving School Rampage Shootings

James:
I’m writing regarding A Parent’s Guide to Surviving School Rampage Shootings, by Greg Ellifritz. One important item I think that was missed was allowing any/all adults who choose to do so to be armed.  In the October, 1997 school shooting in Pearl, Mississippi an assistant principal ran to his car, got a gun, and stopped the episode. 

Gun free zones give the criminal huge numbers of potential hostages and victims.   The presence of armed folks makes it a bit more difficult for the bad guys to prevail. – W.B.



Letter Re: After the Shooting

Mr. Rawles,
Mr. Tupreco has made some salient points in his article on your actions and statements after a shooting to protect you and yours. However some of what he says is blatantly false, at least in my neck of the woods. I am a retired police officer who was involved in five separate instances of deadly force during my career so I think I speak with some experience that Mr. Tupreco lacks. He states that police officers are focused only on clearing cases so they will interrogate you with that frame of mind even if your use of deadly force is justified. I personally handled several instances over the years where citizens used deadly force to protect themselves or loved ones from criminals. I not only was sympathetic to their justifiable use of deadly force I even suggested a citizens commendation for an elderly woman that shot a burglary suspect in the face as he tried to enter her home. I can similarly attest that the vast majority of my fellow officers were very inclined to assist citizens in these situations as much as we could.

Mr. Tupreco also states that police are assumed innocent and not required to give a statement prior to consulting counsel. On the contrary any citizen of the the USA can refuse to speak to law enforcement and request an attorney before saying anything. In contrast as a police officer involved in the use use of deadly force I was required to speak to internal affairs and perform a reenactment of these incidents that was video recorded. I’m not sure where Mr. Tupreco gets his information about police being given special treatment but he is simply wrong. As stated I am a retired police officer not an attorney but if you ever feel uncomfortable speaking to law enforcement simply stop. Request an attorney and say no more. Police Officers are on your side not adversaries to be feared interested only in clearance statistics.
Thank you, – Carl L.



Economics and Investing:

SurvivalBlog’s G.G. flagged this ominous news: U.S. on Pace for $1 Trillion Deficit. [JWR Adds: Beware, the debt service costs will explode, once interest rates rise!]

K.P. suggested this at Zero Hedge: Chris Martenson Interviews Robert Mish: Front-Line Evidence That We are Nowhere Near a Gold Bubble. [JWR Adds: Keep in mind that we are still staring down barrel of a big, albeit brief pullback in the precious metals and equities in next 30 days, as margin calls will likely cascade from CDS derivatives fallout. Buy on the dips!]

Goldman Sachs director quits ‘morally bankrupt’ Wall Street bank. (Thanks to Bob G. for the link.)

Kevin K. spotted this: CME Clearing Europe Vacates Registration as Derivatives Clearing Organization Prior to Greek CDS Payouts

Items from The Economatrix:

ISDA Determines Credit Event Has Occurred

Collapse Coming–Not Recovery

France’s Upcoming Election Means Euro Devaluation — And A Pop In Gold

Economic Consequences Of The High Oil Price



Odds ‘n Sods:

Ah, the amazing world of social networking. There are now niche web pages for every interest. I discovered that most states now have web pages specially tailored to help corrupt, gun-hating politicians keep track of their old friends, like this one. (To keep tabs on Bloomberg buddies like former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. Now awaiting trial under a 38-charge felony indictment for an additional set of corruption charges, with a possible sentence of 30 years.) These sites are handy for planning future meet-ups and hang time. For example, this page will let you know that former Mayor Larry Langford has his dance card filled until May of 2023. Oh, but wait, there are also social networking pages for pedophiliac, gun-hating politicians. (There, you can find former Racine, Wisconsin Mayor Gary Becker, now serving a three year sentence.) They ought to do the same, to keep former governors in touch and congressmen’s wives all atwitter. To my way of thinking, the greatest failing of these trendy pages is their lack of catchy names. Perhaps they could use: “BloomberglarBook”, “HandDeliverThatFatEnvelopeSpace”, or “MayorsLinkedInMaximumSecurity.”

   o o o

Rise Of The Prepper — Could The Recent Popularity Cause Problems For Preppers?

   o o o

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta has an IFF malfunction: U.S. troops at Afghan base told to lay down weapons before meeting with Panetta

   o o o

Andre D. was the first of several readers to suggest this piece: My doomsday tab: $130K on bunkers, guns and more

   o o o

Encyclopaedia Britannica turns a page, ends print edition. (Thanks to James K. for the link.)





Notes from JWR:

This is the last day of Ready Made Resources’ sale on Mountain House canned freeze dried foods. They are offering 25% off and free shipping. The sale ends at midnight Eastern time, so order soon!

Today we present two more entries for Round 39 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), and E.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak F-50 hand well pump (a $349 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, C.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and D.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 39 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



A Parent’s Guide to Surviving School Rampage Shootings, by Greg Ellifritz

I walked into the high school wearing two guns and a bullet resistant vest.  I had a rifle, six spare magazines, and a ballistic helmet stashed close by in my car.  It was Wednesday, April 21, 1999, the day after what had been the worst school shooting in United States history.  Two high school kids had just killed 12 of their fellow students and a teacher at Columbine High School in Colorado.  The television was awash in the news coverage and everyone was scared.

Parents, students, and teachers were worried about a copycat shooting in the town where I worked as a police officer.  My town was suburban, affluent, and had a great school system…just like Columbine.  The school administration had asked for extra security from the police department and I was the officer they sent.  I spent the next two days patrolling the halls of the high school trying to reassure the students and teachers that they were safe.  No one believed me.  I didn’t believe it myself.  For two straight days I pre-planned my responses to any possible violent scenarios that I could encounter.  I was confident in my shooting and tactical abilities, but I knew that I couldn’t be everywhere at once.  I was worried that I wouldn’t be any more of a deterrent than the school resource officer who had engaged the shooters at Columbine.

Students and teachers were asking me questions about what they should do in the event that their school was the next to make the headlines.  I feigned confidence, but I had to admit that I really didn’t have any good answers.  For police officers, Columbine was a game changer.  Everything we thought we knew about school shootings had changed…and we had yet to come up with any better solutions.  All we knew was that everyone; parents, teachers, and cops needed to improve their knowledge and tactics to ensure that another Columbine didn’t happen in our city.

Fortunately, I didn’t have to deal with any violence at the school during my two days of patrolling the halls.  But my lack of knowledge about school shootings troubled me.  I wanted to be able to provide definitive answers to any questions that might be asked of me the next time.  Soon thereafter, I was assigned as my police department’s full time training officer and was sent all around the country to acquire the skills needed to teach our officers how to prevail in the face of lethal force encounters.  During my last 12 years in the training position, my quest for knowledge about school shootings has lead me to research the history of previous events and the psychology of the shooters.  I’ve read books, talked to school officials and interviewed people who have responded to school shootings in their own jurisdictions.  I’ve studied and analyzed the actions of students, teachers, and police officers who responded to critical incidents in schools.
There is a lot of conflicting information available about the phenomenon of school shootings.  Parents, students and teachers are often overwhelmed and paralyzed by the vast quantity of school shooting research that has been published during the last decade.  Unfortunately, there hasn’t been a single definitive source outlining any simple, easy-to-understand measures that parents can take to keep their children safe at school.  My goal is to remedy that with this article.  I’ve learned a lot in my last 12 years of study and I won’t again be at a loss for words when asked difficult questions like I was asked in that school in 1999.  Now I know the answers, and I will be sharing them with every parent here.

Recognizing the Shooter and Preventing the Shooting

Contrary to popular belief, there is no single profile that describes the school shooter.  Shooters have ranged in age from pre-teen to adults.  Both men and women have pulled the trigger in schools.  The majority of school shooters are young males, white, non-urban, and have been victims of bullying, assault, or intimidation.  There is no other useful physical “profile”.  Most school shooters were known to have difficulty coping with significant losses or personal failures.  Many had been prescribed anti-depressant and anti-psychotic medications.  Most also had easy access to weapons. 
The idea that school shooters are always trying to “get even” with people that have bullied them is not accurate.  Killers have initiated shooting events by targeting certain individuals, but generally they soon move on to the school’s population as a whole.  In Columbine, one of the first victims was a student with Down’s syndrome who had never bullied anyone.

This physical profile doesn’t really help us.  There are dozens of kids who match it in every school.  What does help us to recognize the shooter is looking at his or her behavior.
The one behavior that precedes almost every school shooting is detailed planning.  School shooters are influenced by past events.  They study and learn from the successes and failures of past shooters.  Infamy has become their prime motivator. Many shooters recognize that they will be captured or killed and want to “live on” through their body count.  They will create written “manifestos” and YouTube “training videos”.  Occasionally those publications, plans and videos will be released before the shooting actually occurs.  Parents should be alert and must be able to recognize these written or recorded plans when they see them.

Most school shooters told at least one other student about their plans for the attack before they acted.  Harvard University did a study to determine why the students who knew about the shooting plans didn’t tell the authorities.  The students reported that they didn’t believe that the shooter would actually follow through with the plan.  Teach your children to tell you about anyone who talks about planning a school shooting, whether your child believes the potential shooter or not.  This may be the single most influential action that you as a parent can take to prevent someone from shooting your child or someone else in a school.

With the increase in numbers of School Resource Officers (police officers assigned to a school, also called SROs), part of the shooter’s planning process involves taking their presence into account.  School shooters are wearing body armor and helmets, anticipating armed resistance.

Kip Kinkel had more than 1,100 rounds [of .22 Long Rifle] on his person during his shooting at Thurston High School.  Cho had over 800 unfired rounds on his person when he died at Virginia Tech.  Thomas Hamilton had 743 rounds on his person when he shot up a school in Dunblane, Scotland.  They know the best way to achieve lasting infamy is to score a high body count.  They need guns, ammunition, and body armor to do that.

All of the weapons and equipment have to get into the school somehow.  Usually the shooters carry it in themselves.  Teach your children to be especially aware of fellow students or adults carrying large packages into the schools.  Any massive duffle bags, large boxes or huge backpacks should be viewed with suspicion.  If the packs seem larger than normal, much heavier than average, or carried in a manner inconsistent with the way other students are carrying them, it might be a valuable early warning sign.  A school policy that limits the carrying of backpacks between classes would help to more easily identify students who are carrying weapons and ammunition.

The recent school shootings at the Platte Canyon High School, the West Nickel Mine Amish School, and Virginia Tech all involved the shooter using some method to barricade doors.  This both slows law enforcement response and limits the victims’ opportunities for escape.  The carrying of building materials or anything that could be used to fashion a barricade into a school should be a warning sign that teachers and students should look for.  If your child sees someone carrying chains, locks, zip ties, handcuffs or any type of lumber at school, he or she should immediately notify school officials or call the police.

Student Response During a School Shooting and “The Myth of the Lockdown”

Since that fateful day in 1999 in Columbine, schools have become much more proactive in planning for a shooting event.  Many states now mandate that every school submit formalized emergency plans to both the state board of education and the local police department.  Some states even mandate that every school conduct a certain number of emergency drills during the course of the school year. 
School administrators have complied with these directives with varying amounts of forethought and planning.  Some schools with which I have worked have virtually perfect tactical plans for almost any conceivable encounter.  Some others have barely complied with even the most basic of legal obligations.

Most schools have settled on the “lockdown” as the centerpiece of their response strategy.  When teachers or administrators become aware of a threat in the school, they make a general announcement (either overt or coded) triggering students to “lockdown”.  That means that all students are to immediately enter the closest classroom and hide down on the floor in a position where they cannot be seen from the hallway.  Teachers are responsible for directing the students, securing their classroom doors as best they can, turning out the lights and blocking the windows with paper or curtains.  Other teachers, administrators, or custodial staff members are responsible for clearing hallways and other public areas as well as locking all exterior doors. The students and teachers stay in this “locked down” mode until they get some type of an “all clear” signal from administrators or police.

The lockdown idea is not a bad one.  Lockdowns are generally helpful if the school is located in an area with a rapidly responding police force.  They provide temporary marginal protection for students and teachers and deny some areas to potential shooters.   They also allow rapidly responding police officers to find and neutralize the threat in the school.  Lockdowns can also be used to protect students from a threat that has not yet entered the school.  They are often triggered to deny entry to an armed criminal who is fleeing from police in the vicinity of a school.
The problem with lockdowns is not with the concept, but with the execution.  Most schools do not train for any exigency except the lockdown.  They lock students down in poorly defensible positions and don’t tell students and teachers what to do if the lockdown fails or is breached.  In essence, there is no “Plan B”.  If the students can’t quickly lock themselves down or a police response is delayed, there is no other plan.  Students and teachers must just cower in fear and hope that they will be rescued.  That’s unacceptable.
Lockdowns have failed in the past. The shooter in Red Lake, Minnesota killed an unarmed security guard purposely to trigger a lockdown.  He wanted the lockdown so that he could easily find and target the victims he most wanted to kill.  After the lockdown was triggered, he went to the classroom where he knew his victims would be hiding, shot a hole in the glass window of the door and entered the locked down room.  He then killed the teacher and five students before he was shot by police.
Students at Virginia Tech attempted unsuccessfully to lockdown individual classrooms once they knew a shooter was prowling the halls.  Only one classroom out the three that attempted this tactic was able to deny entry to the shooter.
Some other issues that come into play (but are rarely considered by school administrators) are the following:

  • What if the classroom door cannot be locked from the inside?
  • What happens if the shooter pulls the fire alarm during a lockdown?
  • What should teachers do if the shooter has a hostage and is threatening to kill him or her unless the lockdown is breached?
  • How should severe medical emergencies be handled in a locked down classroom?  Is there any plan to evacuate gunshot victims safely?
  • What should the teachers and students do if the door to the locked down room is breached by the shooter?
  • What are teachers instructed to do if the shooter kills a staff member and takes a master key or ID card that gives him access to the entire school?
  • How would a school administrator respond if an armed student orders the administrator to give the “all clear” signal to end the lockdown?
  • Some school shooters have utilized explosives to augment their primary weapons.  What should locked down students do if the school becomes structurally unstable due to the effects of any bombs that the shooter has placed?

As a parent, you should confer with school officials to verify that they have plans to address any such contingencies.  If they don’t, your child isn’t likely to be safe in the event a shooter enters the school!

Escape- The Best Option
In studying every school shooting that has occurred in the United States, as well as many that have happened in other parts of the world, I have come to the conclusion that escaping the school is the best option for individual students in a school shooting situation.  Virtually all students who get out of the school (even if they have already been shot) survive.
In the Virginia Tech shooting, the students who did not get shot were those who jumped out of a window or ran to another part of the building.  Most of the students who attempted to lock down the room, hide, or play dead were shot.  There are many other examples of fleeing students surviving while their counterparts who locked down in a room were shot.
If you as a parent are unsatisfied in the preparations of your child’s school, you should teach your child to run at the sound of gunfire and not be locked down.  Note explicitly the advice I just gave; if your child hears gunfire within the school, he or she should flee via the closest exit in the opposite direction from where the gunfire is coming.  I did not say that your child should never go into lockdown!  If there is an external threat (like a fleeing criminal outside) or a different type of hazardous situation (like a domestic violence incident between divorcing parents), lockdown is likely the safest response for your child.  But if your child hears gunfire in the school, escape will almost always be the better option.

Ideally, your child should escape to a location that has been pre-identified by you.  Pick a couple of safe locations, ideally public areas that are some distance from the school.  Instruct your child to flee to the safe area and call you to be picked up.  Make the location far enough away from the school that it isn’t enclosed within the barricaded traffic perimeter.  In the event of a shooting, police will shut down all the roads adjacent to the school.  You’ll want your “safe place” far enough outside this perimeter that your access to it won’t be limited.

Children who haven’t thought about safe areas run AWAY from danger during shootings.  They end up getting lost or hiding in sub-optimal positions like under beds or in bathroom stalls.  In the event of gunfire, people should run TOWARD safety, preferably your pre-identified rendezvous spot, and not just AWAY from the shooter.

Teach your child what type of materials stop bullets (including rifle bullets).  These materials are called “cover”.  If under fire, you child should run toward the nearest piece of hard cover that will deflect a bullet.  Concrete walls, car engines, filled bookshelves, and steel doors will likely stop or deflect most bullets.  Practice by playing a game of making your children identify pieces of cover occasionally when you are out together in a public location.  That will help build your child’s awareness skills and refresh their knowledge base.

Let your children know that a backpack filled with school books is likely to stop handgun bullets.  If your child has a backpack loaded with a couple of books, instruct him to put it on (in front of the body if necessary) between himself and the shooter as improvised body armor.  Better yet, outfit your child’s backpack with armor panels from old bullet resistant vests purchased cheaply on EBay.  Even if the vest panel is expired, I’ve never had one fail to stop a bullet that it was rated to stop despite the panel’s age.  I’ve shot vest panels as old as 25 years and they still work.  As long as the panel has not been submerged in water or left out in the sun for extensive time periods, it will still stop bullets.

Make sure your child knows not to run to the police for safety. The police are often the ones drawing gunfire from the shooter(s). There have also been shootings (Norway is one example) where the shooters have impersonated police officers.  Have your child stick to your plan of getting to a rendezvous location and awaiting your arrival.  Don’t allow them to force a police officer to make a decision between protecting a single child and going after the shooter.  The officer must stop the shooter.  He may be the only one nearby capable of accomplishing that task. Ensure that your child isn’t the one who distracts the officer from his primary objective.

You must also teach your children to avoid denial.  In Virginia Tech, students rationalized the sounds of gunfire as construction noises.  Students in Columbine initially thought the gunfire was caused by firecrackers being lit as a student prank.  The students at Beslan thought balloons were popping. Students and teachers in shooting events universally express the thought that “I couldn’t believe it was happening”.  This denial and rationalization leads to a paralysis.  The waiting for verification of actual gunfire takes time that can better be used to escape.

Instruct your children that if they are in a school and think they hear gunfire, they shouldn’t await instructions.  They can’t delay while trying to figure out what’s happening.  If they think it’s gunfire, empower them to act!  Immediately escape!  The people in active shooter events who wait around to be sure that the noises they are hearing are actually gunfire typically delay so long that they no longer have any viable options except locking down

Building a Better Lockdown

If your child is unable to escape due to the physical proximity of the shooter or if he or she is forced to lock down by a school official, there are a few things that they should do to maximize the utility of the lockdown procedure.

If they have a choice about lockdown locations, tell them to avoid rooms that cannot be locked or rooms that have no alternate escape routes.  Rooms higher than the second floor should be avoided as well.
Talk to your child’s school principal about creating a door and window numbering system.  Numbers should be on the outside and inside of every classroom door and window.  All exterior doors should also be numbered.  If students are locked down in a certain room, they need to be able to easily see the room number (from the inside), so they can better direct emergency responders to help them.  Cops and firemen can also use room numbers written outside of windows to identify alternate entry/exit points.

Another topic of conversation between you and the school administrator should be the mandatory safety equipment that should be kept in every classroom.  Every school classroom should have a survival kit.  The kit needs to have different supplies depending on the age and needs of the students.  All kits should contain:

  • Resources to barricade doors (wedges, ropes, etc.)
  • Paper and writing instruments to communicate silently both within the classroom and with emergency responders outside
  • Medical supplies suitable for treating gunshot wounds (bandages and tourniquets)
  • Alternate communication devices (cell phones or radios)
  • Food, water, and entertainment options (for younger children)
  • A strong flashlight and dust masks.  They are essential to have in the kit in case of a power outage or if the shooter is also using explosives.  Smoke, dust and darkness are very common in more extended school shootings.

If the classroom has a drywall wall separating it from another classroom or hallway, consider adding a razor knife, hammer, or small hatchet to the emergency kit.  These items will allow you to cut through the drywall to create an alternate escape route.  Have a method to break window glass to facilitate escape as well.  Glass breaking window punches are available for sale online for around five dollars.

If the classroom is on the second or third floor and has a window, adding ropes, rope ladders or some alternate method of safely lowering students from the window to the survival kit is essential.
On lockdowns, teach your children to place desks, chairs and other furniture in the pathway of the potential shooter to slow his entry into the room.  PowerPoint or overhead projectors can be directed at the door to blind the shooter with bright light if he makes entry into the room.
Most importantly, you must instruct your child to break lockdown and escape or fight in the following circumstances:

  • If the door is broken down or unlocked and the shooter makes entry into the room where your child is locking down.
  • If your child sees large amounts of smoke or a fire that threatens the classroom.  If the fire alarm is triggered without your child seeing smoke or flames, they should stay put.  Some past school shooters (like the ones in Jonesborough, Arkansas) pulled the fire alarms to force students to move into an area where they had set up an ambush.
  • If the building becomes structurally unstable due to damage from explosive devices.

If lockdown is breached, your child will have to choose between either fighting or fleeing.  No other option will likely be successful.  As a parent, only you are in a position to determine which course of action is best for your child.  If you think that fighting would be a viable option (if your child is large, athletic, aggressive, competitive, or has specialized training), teach your child to push the shooter’s gun down and away from them as they attack his eyes or throat.  Those targets are likely to cause the quickest incapacitations and require the least amount of skill and strength.
Better yet, teach them to use improvised weapons such as sharpened pencils, fire extinguishers, or scissors against the same vulnerable targets.  If the students are old enough to comprehend, have them come up with a plan for a simultaneous attack with several of their other aggressive classmates.  Five or six children, even if they are pre-teens, can overwhelm a grown man if they coordinate their actions.

One additional skill to teach your children (depending on age) is how to operate common firearms.  Many school shooters are physically stopped by their potential victims while the shooter has a weapon malfunction or is in the act of reloading.  Older students should be trained specifically how to recognize when a shooter has a malfunction or is out of ammunition.  That is the moment when the shooter is most vulnerable and least likely to be a danger to your child.  If your child can stay behind cover until he or she sees that the shooter’s gun is empty, have them wait until that moment before fleeing or counterattacking.

Other viable options
Some children are emotionally incapable of acting with aggression.  Others are not athletic enough to flee from a gunman.  What can those children do?
Without a doubt, fleeing, locking down, or attacking the shooter are the most viable strategies to ensure your child’s safety.  If they cannot adopt one of those techniques, there may be other strategies they can employ.

Several shootings have been stopped when the shooter has been calmly confronted by another student or teacher telling him to stop shooting.  While it probably shouldn’t be a person’s first choice of tactics, it can work when potential victims have no other options.  Some teachers and students don’t have the temperament to fight back or lack the physical ability to escape.  Train those people to talk.  Telling the shooter: “Stop shooting.  That’s enough for today.  Put the gun down” may work and is a better strategy than freezing in fear. 

Hiding may be another option.  Don’t allow your child to hide under a desk in the same room as the shooter.  That seldom works.  Desks don’t stop bullets and some shooters (Cho at Virginia Tech, for example) specifically practiced tactics that included targeting students hiding under desks and chairs.   Every student who hid under a desk at Virginia Tech was shot. If your child can’t do anything but hide, have him or her hide in an area where a shooter might not look.  Someplace like a janitor’s closet or up in the drop ceiling might be a decent location.

If there is absolutely no other option, instruct your child to hide amongst the injured students and “play dead”.  It is the least successful option of any I have identified, but it has worked in a few situations.  “Playing dead” should only be used as a transitional strategy to buy time to implement another tactic.  You should tell your child to escape as soon as the shooter moves on to another location.

Conclusion
Educational institutions and police officers are much better prepared to respond to the school shooter than they were just a few years ago.  Tactics continue to evolve and we all continue to learn from these tragic events.  Now it’s time to do your part as a parent.  Take an active interest in your child’s survival.  Discuss these ideas with your school administrator and teach your children how to respond to the school shooter.  It may be frightening to think about.  It may put you at odds with your child’s teachers. But I promise you that your child will be more likely to survive a school shooting and you’ll be thankful that you made the effort.

As a police officer, I am committed to protecting your children from a school shooter.  My fellow officers and I will risk our lives to save your children.  Help us out by teaching your kids what to do when someone starts shooting at their school.  Every child who can keep himself safe frees an officer to rush in and stop the shooter.  Teaching your child how to be safe will ultimately protect the entire school.
If you are interested in learning more about previous school shootings and how to prevent future events, please check out the following books:

Terror at Beslan – John Giduck
Shooter Down – John Giduck
Ceremonial Violence – Jonathan Fast
School Shootings – Joseph Lieberman
Stop Teaching our Kids to Kill – Dave Grossman
Innocent Targets – Michael and Chris Dorn
Surviving a School Shooting – Loren Christensen

About the Author:
Greg Ellifritz is a 16-year veteran police officer, spending the last 12 years as the full time tactical training officer for his central Ohio agency.  In that position, he is responsible for developing and instructing all of the in-service training for a 57-officer police department.  Prior to his training position, he served as patrol officer, bike patrol officer, precision marksman, and field training officer for his agency.

He has been an active instructor for the Tactical Defense Institute since 2001 and a lead instructor for TDI’s ground fighting, knife fighting, impact weapons, and extreme close quarters shooting classes.

Greg holds instructor, master instructor, or armorer certifications in more than 75 different weapons systems, defensive tactics programs, and law enforcement specialty areas.  In addition to these instructor certifications, Greg has trained with most of the leading firearms and edged weapons instructors in the country.

Greg has been an adjunct instructor for the Ohio Peace Officer’s Training Academy, teaching firearms, defensive tactics, bike patrol, knife defense and physical fitness topics to officers around the state.  He has taught firearms and self defense classes at the national and international level through the International Association of Law Enforcement Firearms Instructors, The American Society of Law Enforcement Trainers and Ohio Association of Chiefs of Police.  Greg holds a Master’s degree in Public Policy and Management and has written for several publications including: ‘The Firearms Instructor”, “Ohio Police Chief”, “Combat Handguns”, “Concealed Carry Magazine” and “The Journal of the American Women’s Self Defense Association”. 

He currently teaches classes through his company, Active Response Training.  For more information, you can reach by e-mail at Greg1095@Yahoo.com.



Family Planning, Post-TEOTWAWKI, by Lisa F.

Bring to mind one of the post-TEOTWAWKI scenarios you most frequently imagine, be it the after-effects of a worldwide flu pandemic, series of natural disasters, economic collapse, or nuclear war.  Is this a world into which you’d want to bring children?  At least for the short-term aftermath, I bet you wouldn’t.  Not while you may be on the move or actively defending your retreat or community from danger.  However…”birds do it, bees do it, even educated fleas do it”…c’mon, sing along with me and Cole Porter…”let’s do it, let’s fall in love!”  As the song says, love is natural and often accompanied by relations that can result in babies being born.  What if the methods of contraception you had long taken for granted were not readily available?  If your bunker isn’t well-stocked with condoms, you’re probably out of luck.  Prescription contraception?  Won’t be available.  Medical or surgical interventions (think IUD or vasectomy) won’t be worth the risk, in the absence of ongoing qualified medical care, even if they are available. 

Of course, the best way to prevent unwanted pregnancy is abstinence.  But assuming that abstinence is not the preferred option, how can heterosexual couples engage in sexual intimacy including intercourse and prevent ill-timed pregnancy without contraception?  By observing the woman’s body’s natural function over time and planning intercourse during the days when she is not ovulating, that’s how.  Conveniently, this method also helps couples plan the optimum times to conceive a child as well.  Also known as Natural Family Planning (NFP) or the Rhythm Method, the essence of this approach is that women and their loving menfolk track the ovulation cycle and avoid intercourse or make sure to use a barrier method of contraception (diaphragm, vaginal sponge, condoms, all of which should be used with spermicide to be most effective) when the woman is ovulating.  How does one do that?

The first requirement for an ovulating woman is to understand your monthly fertility pattern or menstrual cycle.  (Men are fertile from birth, but women only become fertile after achieving sexual maturity, usually around age 12-13 and lasting until menopause, which may start between the ages of 40 and 60.)  Days of the cycle may be divided as follows:

  • days when you are fertile (able to get pregnant)
  • days when you are infertile
  • days when fertility is unlikely, but possible

Day 1 of the cycle is the first day of a woman’s menses, or period; the average cycle lasts 28 days, but a healthy cycle might last from 12 to 35 days and vary throughout a year or over a number of years.  The amount of time in the cycle before ovulation–crucial information for pregnancy planning,–aries from woman to woman and sometimes monthly for the same woman.  The period always starts (unless a woman is pregnant) in 14 to 16 days.  The period is the shedding of the blood and uterine lining that will not be needed, as there is no fertilized egg present.

Women with a regular menstrual cycle, which means they menstruate for the same duration each month with about the same number of days between the first day of once cycle and the next, have about nine or more fertile days each month. Should you not want to get pregnant, do not have intercourse on the days you are fertile or use a barrier method (condoms, diaphragm with spermicide, etc) of birth control (this could be a way of conserving your limited supply of barrier contraception, if you have any.)

The knowledge of when you are definitely or likely to be fertile is essential both for pregnancy planning and natural avoidance.   There are three ways to track fertility; they involve monitoring:

  • basal body temperature
  • the monthly calendar
  • cervical mucus

The most accurate method is to combine all three approaches.

Basal body temperature

The average human body temperature is 98.6 degrees, and most people have a consistent body temperature that is close to 98.6 degrees. Basal body temperature is your temperature when you first wake in the morning, before you start moving around a lot.  During ovulation, a woman’s body temperature rises, though usually by less than a degree.  By monitoring body temperature over time, a woman can learn what her basal body temperature is and be able to note when it rises.  This method requires a special thermometer, available at most drug and grocery stores; if you aren’t currently using one, you may consider adding it to your preparedness supplies.  Remember, ” two is one and one is none”, so think about purchasing a few.  Illness, alcohol consumption, or getting out of bed and moving around can all raise basal body temperature.

Most women have ovulated within 3 days of the temperature spike; you’re most likely to get pregnant 2-3 days before the temperature spike and 12-24 hours after ovulation.  This gives an average 6-day window of likely fertile days.  Sperm can live inside a woman for up to three days, which extends the window to 9 days.

Calendar Method

This method involves recording your menstrual cycle over a period of time, at least 6 months, to determine the pattern.  Projecting into the future, you may calculate the days you’ll be most fertile by subtracting 18 from the total number of days in your shortest cycle (for example, 26 days.) Take this number (in our example, it would be 8) and count ahead that many days from the first day of your next period, once you get it. Mark that date on your calendar; it is the first day you’re likely to be fertile.  Then subtract 11 from the total number of days in your longest cycle (for example, 32 days.) Count ahead that many days (in our example, it would be 21) from the first day of your next period. Mark this date on your calendar. The time between the two dates is your most fertile window and the time when you would want to abstain from intercourse or use a barrier method of contraception.  In our example, the window is 13 days, which is long but possible.

This method is the least reliable, so you should always use it in combination with the basal body temperature or cervical mucus method.

Cervical Mucus

A woman’s cervix, which is the portion of the uterus where is joins with the vagina, produces mucus; the presence or quality of this mucus is an indicator of ovulation. The menstrual cycle is driven by hormones, and the same hormones change the quality and quantity of this mucus.   For a few days after a woman’s period, there is no cervical mucus present.  As the egg starts to mature in the ovaries (this happens monthly for a fertile woman), cervical mucus increases and appears at the vaginal opening, cloudy and sticky.  Just before ovulation, the mucus become more copious, clear, and slippery (think egg whites.)  This is when you are most fertile.  About four days later, it should change again.  This method (really all three methods) requires the use of a calendar to record your observations.  Label each day “sticky”, “dry”, or “wet.”  You are most fertile at the first signs of wetness after your period ends.

Many couples who are trying to conceive purchase ovulation kits or fertility monitors from drugstores. These kits detect surges in luteinizing hormone, which triggers ovulation.  You could store some of these kits in your cache, but they are more for people who are trying to conceive than for people who are trying to prevent pregnancy.

Of course, times of significant stress (i.e. TEOTWAWKI) may disrupt a woman’s regular menstrual and ovulation cycle, so this method may not be 100% reliable.  The Center for Disease Control describes it as being 75 – 99% effective at preventing pregnancy (compare with condom use, generally accepted as being 85 – 98% effective); of course, natural family planning will not prevent sexually transmitted infections.  It is also worth noting that chances of conceiving or of  carrying a pregnancy to term diminish after age 35.  According to the National Institute of Health, “For women aged 35-39 years the chance of conceiving spontaneously is about half that of women aged 19-26 years.” (“ABC of Subfertility”, 2003.) Postmenopausal women are not able to become pregnant.

If the anticipated circumstances of your survival situation make it absolutely undesirable to encourage pregnancy (hopefully for a limited time), you will want to include a great number of condoms in your cache.  They take up little space but should be rotated like other perishable items; over time, latex breaks down and loses its strength and flexibility.  Condoms have expiration dates on the packaging.

Besides pregnancy planning and/or prevention, there are a number of other sexual health topics commonly covered in advanced first aid training that are beyond the scope of this article.  A crucial part of preparedness is training and practice; consider taking an advanced first aid or first responder course.  If your natural family planning doesn’t work, then you may need to know how to safely deliver a baby!



Letter Re: After the Shooting

Dear JWR:
In response to Tupreco’s After the Shooting submission in SurvivalBlog, I have two observations to offer:
 
1: None of the scenarios or situations in that essay reasonably described those I’ve encountered in the aftermath of three separate lethal force incidents. Happily, in two of those, there were multiple witnesses, so the situation was pretty far removed from the Home Alone scenarios so described in Tupreco’s thoughts. That is not to say that they aren’t valid, in some locales; just an observation that in some areas, things may not go nearly as simply as described; in others, the investigatory process may be a whole lot more benign. His words of caution are well-advised, but beware that in being cautious, you do not appear to be antagonistic toward the investigators, who may well be antagonistic to your own best interests. I was much, much more fortunate than that. But your mileage may vary.
 
2:  I have been provided by my attorney with a laminated card for presentation to any responding or investigating officers, along with his business card with home and cell phone numbers, so that he can respond if needed to provide his assistance and effectively respond to their questioning. Once again, in some locales, presentation of such information might annoy or enrage some investigators who demand to control the interview process to their benefit and satisfaction. In my own present locale, my local sheriff has reviewed it and told me he has no problem with it, and wouldn’t want any investigator who was upset by it on his department- he views it as the citizen equivalent of the “Miranda Warning” card carried by his officers. It reads as follows:

Officer:
 
If I have given you this card, it is because in fear for my life it has been necessary to take action to defend myself. I am willing to sign a criminal complaint against the attacker. I will also point out witnesses and evidence. This is a stressful and traumatic experience for me. Therefore, I wish to make no further statements until I have spoken with my attorney. I also do not consent to any searches. I will cooperate fully once I have consulted with my attorney. As a lawfully armed citizen, I ask you for the same courtesy that you would show a fellow officer who has been involved in a similar situation.
Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.

Regards, – George S.



Two Letters Re: Pat’s Product Review: SIG Sauer P226 MK25

Mr. Rawles,
 A couple points of interest regarding Pat’s article on the P226.  I’ve owned a P226 Extreme for over a year now, and I love it.  Pat’s review was dead on in analyzing the gun’s performance.  As for the Mecgar magazines and their apparently magical ability to fit three extra rounds in practically the same space, the trick is in the construction of the follower and length of the spring.  Mecgar played a clever trick on geometry that allows the follower to seat farther down the body of the magazine on top of the fully compressed spring when it’s fully loaded.  This accounts for the added capacity for only an eigth of an inch of extra length.  Another nifty product Mecgar makes for the 226 is a magazine floorplate extension.  This extends the bottom of the magazine an additional half inch or so, and adds two extra rounds to the mag’s capacity.  This turns their already impressive 18 round mags into 20 round mags for a little cheaper than it would be to purchase factory 20 rounders.  The same kit can also be used on Beretta 92 magazines for the same +2 boost.

Speaking of Beretta mags, I’ve recently experimented with modifying Beretta 92 mags to fit my 226.  The shape of the magazine body is almost identical.  With a little bit of file work to add a new catch slot, and round off the top front corners, an M9 magazine will fit and feed a 226 or 228.  It’s obviously a jury-rigged thing, and has to be done carefully to work, but M9 mags are in great abundance in military and law enforcement inventories.  For those carrying SIGs when TSHTF, spare magazines may not be as hard to acquire as one might think. – John in Spokane

JWR Adds: Any “make do” hand-modified magazines should be strenuously tested for full reliability with a variety of bullet shapes before they can be trusted for regular target or hunting use. And in my estimation they should never be trusted for self-defense situations unless you are in dire circumstances. Buy the very best magazines available, for self-defense!

Jim and Pat:
The SIG P226 MK25 (as mentioned in Pat Cascio’s recent product review) was preceded by  P226-Navy.  The main difference between the two is the lack of the rail on the older version and the SIGLite night sights on the MK25.   I do believe some of the later P226 –Navy models did however have a rail.  The P226-Navy  was my primary weapon system for daily carry until recently transitioning to the Springfield –Armory 1911 TRP .  I still have my P226-Navy and still carry it at times.   I have shot several thousand though my P226 without one failure to load or failure fire.  During one training session I fired 1,000 rounds over course of two days without any problems.   The gun is very well balanced, accurate out of the box and can take a beating.  Breakdown for cleaning  is quick and easy, and no tools of any kind are required   I have carried this gun in a variety of conditions (mostly damp)  and have never experienced  problems with rust.  The extra carry capacity is nice.  Using a one loaded and two standby magazine carry arrangement, there are  45 rounds available for the P226 (with 15 round magazines) as opposed to 24 rounds available (using three 8 round magazines) for the Model 1911 .45 ACP. 
 
There are those who prefer the polymer guns like the Glock, Springfield Armory XD, S&W MP, all of which are good guns.  I however, prefer a sold metal gun, only because for me it feels sturdier and is better balanced.  
 
The P226 can be comfortably carried concealed with the the right clothing, belt and holster.  I prefer the Milt Sparks Versa Max 2 holster, which does a great job holding the gun close to the body.  For those who prefer the 9mm, the SIG P226 MK25 is a durable, reliable, accurate pistol and will be a gun for lifetime if you take care of it.
 
Disclaimer:  I do not work for any company involved in any aspect of the firearms business. 

Regards, – Florida Dave



Economics and Investing:

K.P. sent a link to a guest post by Jeff Clarke of Casey Research, over at Zero Hedge: Time to Accumulate Gold and Silver?

Uncle Sam’s Teaser Rate: Low interest rates disguise the federal debt bomb. (Thanks to G.G. for the link.)

J.K. in Florida sent this: Trade Issues with China Flare Anew

Items from The Economatrix:

Warning of “Real” Anger at Banks

Greek Debt Swap Could Be Short-lived Reprieve

Alert From European Investment Banker

Handicapping The Collapse