The Death Spiral to Dark Age 2.0
In my previous article at Survivalblog.com, “After the Collapse – Dark Age 2.0: Melee Weapons,” I outlined the case for the coming collapse being many dimensions of severity greater than most survivalists and preppers suppose, leading to a situation of multigenerational collapse, the Mad Max scenario without the hot cars. There are, much like ancient Rome before the fall (or disintegration/decay), forces at work internally destroying the West, leaving it vulnerable and lacking in resilience to external shocks, such as nuclear war, and EMP events, either from intense solar storms or from enemy attackers (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea), and vast array of ecological and resource limitation threats. These are the “converging catastrophes,” detailed in the notes to the last article, that constitute what Schippers et al. have called in their recent article, a “death spiral”:
“Just like an army of ants caught in an ant mill, individuals, groups and even whole societies are sometimes caught up in a Death Spiral, a vicious cycle of self-reinforcing dysfunctional behavior characterized by continuous flawed decision making, myopic single-minded focus on one (set of) solution(s) denial, distrust, micromanagement, dogmatic thinking and learned helpless. We propose the term Death Spiral Effect to describe this difficult-to-break downward spiral of societal decline.”[1]
Schippers et al. are primarily concerned with sociological variables of collapse, such as rising inequalities and the dysfunctional behavior of the elites, which are serious enough problems. However, the converging and compounding catastrophes facing humanity are far greater that the small set of existential threats considered by Schipper et al., constituting an interlocking set of “wicked problems,” problems resisting any easy solution. [2] Each problem, such as resource depletion, soil erosion, water degradation, biodiversity destruction, persistent organic pollutants and crashing human sperm quality (threatening a fertility crisis across the world by 2045), and even political controversial items such climate change and peak oil, can be given a finite non-zero probability of producing societal and/or civilizational collapse. Conservatives may give a low probability to climate change, some giving zero, but a reasonable person would at least give a non-zero probability, since there is always the logical possibility that one is wrong. Conservatives would give a higher probability of collapse to phenomena such as social breakdown by mass immigration invasion, with urban terrorism. Let each of these probabilities be P1, P2, P3, Pn, then the probability of collapse is the sum/addition of these probabilities, since one can assume that these events are independent. However, the probability of P1 + P2, +P3, + …+ Pn converges to 1, that is certainty of collapse.
Given that collapse is at least highly probable, if not certain, since none of the probabilities are being reduced to 0, it was proposed in the previous article that a Mad Max scenario of multigenerational collapse would occur. The sociological and historical evidence indicates such periods of collapse will be times of hyper-violence; with the lack of preparedness and weakness of most people in modern societies, high levels of mental illness and psychological issues, and many totally welfare-dependent, the breakdown of the social support systems will drive them to desperation and savage violence. But, only for a limited time, as their fate is sealed by their own choice of lifestyles.
Confronting the Collapse
The survivalist will face two scenarios regarding collapse: (1) the period of tribulation of the collapse, the great breakdown and die-off of the bulk of humanity, and (2) threats in the post-apocalyptic wastelands, after the collapse. There are many issues here, both tactical and philosophical, but my previous concern was melee weapons in both periods; perhaps not as important as issues like medical supplies, but still one thing to consider. Regarding weapons, I proposed that at least for jurisdiction such as the United States, the collapse period will be serviced by firearms, with millions of guns supplying firepower a plenty. These guns will function as long as spare parts and smokeless powder rounds last, and with reloading, perhaps at least 50 years, one optimistic estimate of the life span of smokeless powder kept in ideal conditions. There will need to be a movement to black powder at some point, and archery as range weapons. Melee weapons, hand weapons such as swords, axes, and pole arms will become increasingly relevant as time progresses, assuming that techno-industrial society cannot be rebooted.
My previous article considered melee weapons preparation now to aid future generations, since while blacksmithing will allow many types of weapons to be constructed, there is a vast supply of high-quality melee weapons available at present, which can be squirreled away for the future. I was concerned about cost issues, but felt that even those on a budget could put aside a number of cheap weapons, such as combat axes, machetes and budget fighting knives; good swords will cost more, but should be obtained if the funds are available without affecting other survival supplies such as guns, ammo, food and medicines.
The issues to be considered now relate to unarmed combat, in particular, martial arts training. In the present civil society, unnamed martial arts training is of merit, and in many jurisdictions, it will be all that citizen will be permitted by socialist governments to have for self-defense on the increasingly mean streets. So, it would be sensible for anyone who is concerned with social breakdown that is rapidly occurring around us, even if one can legally carry a firearm, to have skill in unarmed combat, as a backup, providing that the money for quality teaching is available, and time permits.
The reason, as YouTube Mixed Martial Artist (MMA) Icy Mike (former police officer) of Hard 2 Hurt has explained in a number of videos (e.g., “Do You Need Martial Arts? CCW Training for Self Defense”), is that the attacker may bridge the gap before a gun is pulled, aimed and fired. Sergeant Dennis Tueller of the Salt Lake City Police Department found that knife wielding attackers could “bridge the gap” of 21 feet (6.4 metres) in just 1.5 seconds on average; some more athletic type could do this faster (such as my footballer son, in my own tests of the Tueller Drill).[3] If the police officer shoots too early: murder; if too late, he gets stabbed. The Tueller Drill has been tested by MythBusters, “Dual Dilemmas,” (2012), and confirmed, and in general is accepted, as it is set up.
The Tueller Drill argument shows that even if one is armed with a pistol, under the stress of an incoming attacker with a knife, or even unarmed, one may still be attacked, and even if a shot is fired, the attacker may be close enough to stab and kill before dying. Thus, if the attacker is unarmed, and the person to be attacked is as well, an unarmed combat situation could arise, and not having unarmed combat skills would be a severe disadvantage, in present rule of law society.
However, the collapse and post-apocalypse scenario is entirely different, even without firearms. I will explain this, and return later to the question of unarmed combat training in the present pre-collapse society. My position by way of summary is that unarmed training is well worth undertaking now, but becomes less relevant, but not useless, in a collapse and post-collapse situation. Unarmed training, I am pained to say as a martial arts teacher, because I am putting a case against my own bread-and-butter, is not as relevant as almost all YouTube martial arts practitioners, especially the born-again MMA enthusiasts, tell us. And, if for some reason (finance, time etc.) such training cannot be undertaken, it is not the end of the world, as there are ways around it, even countering the Tueller Drill situation.
The Tueller Drill Argument in a Collapse Scenario
Let us consider the Tueller Drill argument in a collapse, Without Rule of Law (WROL) scenario. Here, as I argued in my previous article, survivalists should have developed skill in the use of melee weapons, especially blades such as combat axes, fighting knives, swords and in a pinch, machetes. At least a fighting knife needs to be on one’s body, ready for instant action. Now, there has been little consideration of the Tueller Drill when it is melee weapon versus the charging attacker’s knife. Here the limitations of stress that prevent fine motor control needed for shooting may not be as much a problem, if the response to the attacker is to anxiously impale him with a spear, or behead him with a sword or Dane axe. Tunnel vision, terrible for shooting, would be fine, giving focus on what to hit, and the odd hand tremor would not matter so long as the weapon is held firmly, which, under stress, it probably will be.
A blade can easily be drawn and be ready in less that 1.5 seconds. For example, in a weightlifting contest that I won at age 64, the aim was to see how many times one could press a 20 kg barbell in one minute. I won the contest with 180 full range reps (with long arms), making it three reps per second, and I did this without prep, so could beat it with some more effort. My timing of drawing a blade from a suitable arrangement such as a cross draw with the sheath in the belt, is around the .25 second mark. And that is just average for trained knife practitioners, nothing to boast about; the really good guys are faster. Even those with a bit of practice can fast draw under the 1 second mark. Hence, if blades can be openly carried, and they will in a collapse and post-collapse situation, I do not see many self-defense situations degenerating to unarmed combat, as it will be over quickly by blade-on-blade action.
(To be continued tomorrow, in Part 2.)