Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the breakdown in the global diamond market. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

Is it the global credit market instability, or just recession fears? Germany Increases Gold Reserves In September For The First Time In 21 Years – IMF

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Video: Gold’s entire investment thesis can be summarized by this one metric

Economy & Finance:

At Zero Hedge: “There Is A Global Crisis” – Israel Diamond Industry Collapses Amid Faltering Demand. The article start out with this:

“Macroeconomic headwinds are developing across the world. At least 90% of all countries are experiencing a slowdown in growth that has stumped central bankers and policymakers. No one at the moment can figure out how to restart the global economy. With the risk of a worldwide trade recession soaring for 2020, if not has already arrived, consumers are pulling back on spending, which has contributed to a collapse in the global diamond industry, something that we’ve been documenting this year.

The latest stress in the global diamond industry is emanating from Israel. Ynetnews is saying the country’s diamond exports have plunged 22%, a sign that consumer demand from Asia is faltering.

Trade data showed for the first three quarters of 2019, Israeli exports of diamonds were $2.62 billion, down from $3.32 billion during the same period last year.

In 3Q19, imports and exports of diamonds by Israel plunged 28% YoY. “

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Here Is The Real Reason The Fed Restarted QE

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At Wolf Street: Dual-Track Economy: Slowdown in Industrial Sectors Hits Truckers & Railroads. But Consumers Are Still Buying Stuff

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Reader C.B. was the first of several readers to send us this: Crisis could claim third of big global banks: McKinsey

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Running a Gun Show Business – Part 3

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(Continued from Part 2. This installment concludes the article.)

Legal Issues

I’d be remiss if didn’t go over some of the statutory legality issues, liability issues, and tax issues associated with running gun show tables.

As most folks know, when they walk into a gun show they will be seeing two types of sellers with guns on their tables:  Professional dealers with FFLs, and casual unlicensed sellers. The FFL holders can buy and sell both new and used guns. Legally, they must display their license. Casual sellers like me can only buy or sell guns that have already been “papered”, or ones that never were papered (pre-1968 guns.) These can still be “new in box”, but they must be secondary market guns. Folks like me are mainly there at shows to trade, with the goal of upgrading and.or expanding our collections.

Casual secondary sales of firearms do not require a license or any background checks, in the 37 still free “private party sales” states. But there are sadly now 13 states that require background checks on the sales of ALL post-1898 guns. Gun shows in those states are now require the rigamaroll of selling through “transfer dealers”, complete with a “Mother May I? ” phone call to the FBI. In my opinion that is unconstitutional. But until that law gets overturned by the courts, it is still the law.

Applying for a FFL is not required under Federal law, unless you are “engaged in the business” of selling modern guns for your principal livelihood. Whenever the ATF is asked to define how many guns per year or what percentage of income constitutes “engaged in the business”, they are always evasive. They don’t want to go on record as doing so. I consider this a fear tactic, and it troubles me. But I cannot see any rational jury ever convicting someone of being “engaged in the business” if their weekend sales make up less than 20% of their annual income. For the record: I am not a “gun dealer” as my profession. I’m a novelist and blog writer.  Those are the sources of 95% or more of my income.  If I sell or trade guns occasionally at gun shows, that does not make be a “dealer.” This simply is not my principal livelihood. And remember, it is only sales of seriaiized, modern (post-1898) guns that count toward the “engaged in the business” percentage. Sales of any other merchandise (including pre-1899 guns, assorted parts, and 80% complete receivers) are not regulated under Federal law. So they are outside of Federal jurisdiction.Continue reading“Running a Gun Show Business – Part 3”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we look at the new B.O.A. Tourniquet.

New Army Technology to See Through Walls

Regular content contributor G.P. send this item: The Army is eyeing new tech that would let soldiers see enemies through walls. A pericope:

“The winner of an Army competition searching for innovative technology for troops would let soldiers see their enemies through walls.

The second Expeditionary Technology Search (xTechSearch) came to a close last week at the Association of the U.S. Army’s annual meeting, when Lumineye, Inc., was announced as the winner for its radar technology.

Lumineye has created a “wall-penetrating radar” that would help soldiers “identify people and potential threats through walls,” according to the Army’s press release.

As the winner of the competition, The Army awarded Lumineye $250,000. Mike Howard, spokesman for the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology told Task & Purpose that the cash prize doesn’t necessarily mean that the Army will purchase the radar.”

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“Now we beseech you, brethren, by the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ, and by our gathering together unto him,

That ye be not soon shaken in mind, or be troubled, neither by spirit, nor by word, nor by letter as from us, as that the day of Christ is at hand.

Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come, except there come a falling away first, and that man of sin be revealed, the son of perdition;

Who opposeth and exalteth himself above all that is called God, or that is worshipped; so that he as God sitteth in the temple of God, shewing himself that he is God.

Remember ye not, that, when I was yet with you, I told you these things?

And now ye know what withholdeth that he might be revealed in his time.

For the mystery of iniquity doth already work: only he who now letteth will let, until he be taken out of the way.

And then shall that Wicked be revealed, whom the Lord shall consume with the spirit of his mouth, and shall destroy with the brightness of his coming:

Even him, whose coming is after the working of Satan with all power and signs and lying wonders,

And with all deceivableness of unrighteousness in them that perish; because they received not the love of the truth, that they might be saved.

And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie:

That they all might be damned who believed not the truth, but had pleasure in unrighteousness.

But we are bound to give thanks alway to God for you, brethren beloved of the Lord, because God hath from the beginning chosen you to salvation through sanctification of the Spirit and belief of the truth:

Whereunto he called you by our gospel, to the obtaining of the glory of our Lord Jesus Christ.

Therefore, brethren, stand fast, and hold the traditions which ye have been taught, whether by word, or our epistle.

Now our Lord Jesus Christ himself, and God, even our Father, which hath loved us, and hath given us everlasting consolation and good hope through grace,

Comfort your hearts, and stablish you in every good word and work.” – 2 Thesssalonians 2  (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — October 26, 2019

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Edward Wilson Very (born October 26, 1847, died March 1, 1910) was an American naval officer who adopted and popularized a single-shot breech-loading flare pistol that fired flares that bear his name.

October 26th is also the anniversary of the death of American-born RLI Trooper Joseph Patrick Byrne, in Rhodesia, in 1978.

Running a Gun Show Business – Part 2

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(Continued from Part 1.)

Not Just Guns

There is a lot more for sale at gun shows than just serialized modern guns. Magazines are always good sellers. In fact, your average guy walking in to a show cannot afford to buy another gun, at any given show. But he  usually wants and can afford to buy a few magazines. It is magazines that have always been my “bread and butter” sellers, at gun shows. There is also a lot of money to be made with ammunition, but that as a primary inventory should only be considered by men under age 50, with strong backs!

There is also a lot of money in optics. Those have a high profit margin, and are relatively compact and lightweight to transport and store, per dollar value. Another advantage is that they are fairly noncontroversial, and can be sold at sites such as eBay.

Books can be profitable, but it is best to mainly sell books that relate to your firearms specialty. They are heavy to lug around from show to show and tend to be slow sellers, so keep your book inventory small, and specialized.  Also, one word of warning:  If your main inventory consists of dirty military surplus or greasy items, then don’t sell any books. Otherwise, countless grubby fingers will end up soiling your books, making them un-sellable.

Bayonets and knives also tend to be steady sellers. Avoid selling any junky Chinese knives, or it will make your entire inventory look suspect. For liability reasons, you should prominently post a sign that reads: “No knife handling allowed by anyone under age 18!”

Selling holsters can be problematic. This is because they are sized items. This is something akin to running a shoe store–it takes a huge inventory to keep all customers happy. The inventory turn-over for modern holsters is painfully slow. So your inventory of new holsters gets toted around to dozens of shows, and ends up looking like a bunch of used holsters. One notable exception is specializing in selling antique holsters with marks from famous makers. Those sell quite well at cowboy-themed gun shows in the western states. If you want to try this, you really should get a copy of Richard Rattenbury’s outstanding reference book, Packing Iron.

Authentic Western and Native American artifacts sell quite well, especially at cowboy gun shows in the western states. But be warned: This is a very specialized market, and it takes a lot of research.

One growing market segment is 80%-complete frames and receivers. These days, you could easily fill two or three tables and have brisk sales, if you sold nothing but  80% AR lowers, 80% Glock frames, 80% SIG P320 pistol trigger group modules, along with the requisite completion parts.  I’ve often thought that this would be a good biz for someone. Ideally, you’d hunt around and find a police department that is retiring one model of Glock, and make a deal to have them strip (and discard or destroy) the frames and then sell you the full parts sets. Those, combined with an 80% frame, would sell sell like hotcakes!

Continue reading“Running a Gun Show Business – Part 2”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

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To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year. We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in the Comments. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

This week I made preparations for another gun show road trip. I love to travel in the American Redoubt at this time of year, with the Aspen and Tamarack (Western Larch) trees in full color.

My plan is to sell off all of our extra ARs and with the proceeds buy some carefully selected pre-1899 cartridge guns. I’m hoping to have this gradual process completed by April or May of 2020. This will mean making several more gun show trips, and consistently scouring the online antique gun sales listings and auction web sites. The market for pre-1899 antiques is surprisingly thin. For example, you can’t just go out on any given day and buy half a dozen Swedish Mausers that are dated 1898. There may be a total of only three or four on the market–across more than a dozen web sites–and of those listed there might be just one or two that meets all criteria for bore condition, mechanical reliability, and in some cases, originality. (I do buy some “sporterized” and refinished guns, if they are priced accordingly.) The quest continues…

I must say that having antique guns as an investing hobby is quite fun and profitable. I do love to finding a bargain. The only drawback is that I feel a bit torn when it comes time to turn over some of that inventory. I ask myself: “Will I ever be able to find another of “X” model, in this condition?” But then I remind myself:  A man should never fall in love with an investment. If you can’t bring yourself to sell it, then it isn’t an investment–it has become your precious heirloom. And you have become Gollum.

Comically, some people get attached to their “favorite” stock shares, or crypto coins. I’d sell any stock or e-coin in a heartbeat to take advantage of a market move. One share is just like any other, and can be replaced on the next trading day or even intraday. I might take pause before selling precious metals–especially any silver that I’ve earmarked for post-collapse barter. But such assets can quickly and easily be replaced, identically. But there there some guns, other tools, and books that I have to consciously re-evaluate before selling. The decision is almost always to go ahead and sell, but I do recognize that these are not fully fungible assets. For these, I look both toward to my future hindsight, and to that of my progeny. Will they ask: “What was Grandpa Rawles thinking, when he sold that?”

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“And Jacob lifted up his eyes, and looked, and, behold, Esau came, and with him four hundred men. And he divided the children unto Leah, and unto Rachel, and unto the two handmaids.

And he put the handmaids and their children foremost, and Leah and her children after, and Rachel and Joseph hindermost.

And he passed over before them, and bowed himself to the ground seven times, until he came near to his brother.

And Esau ran to meet him, and embraced him, and fell on his neck, and kissed him: and they wept.

And he lifted up his eyes, and saw the women and the children; and said, Who are those with thee? And he said, The children which God hath graciously given thy servant.

Then the handmaidens came near, they and their children, and they bowed themselves.

And Leah also with her children came near, and bowed themselves: and after came Joseph near and Rachel, and they bowed themselves.

And he said, What meanest thou by all this drove which I met? And he said, These are to find grace in the sight of my lord.

And Esau said, I have enough, my brother; keep that thou hast unto thyself.

And Jacob said, Nay, I pray thee, if now I have found grace in thy sight, then receive my present at my hand: for therefore I have seen thy face, as though I had seen the face of God, and thou wast pleased with me.

Take, I pray thee, my blessing that is brought to thee; because God hath dealt graciously with me, and because I have enough. And he urged him, and he took it.

And he said, Let us take our journey, and let us go, and I will go before thee.

And he said unto him, My lord knoweth that the children are tender, and the flocks and herds with young are with me: and if men should overdrive them one day, all the flock will die.

Let my lord, I pray thee, pass over before his servant: and I will lead on softly, according as the cattle that goeth before me and the children be able to endure, until I come unto my lord unto Seir.

And Esau said, Let me now leave with thee some of the folk that are with me. And he said, What needeth it? let me find grace in the sight of my lord.

So Esau returned that day on his way unto Seir.

And Jacob journeyed to Succoth, and built him an house, and made booths for his cattle: therefore the name of the place is called Succoth.

And Jacob came to Shalem, a city of Shechem, which is in the land of Canaan, when he came from Padanaram; and pitched his tent before the city.

And he bought a parcel of a field, where he had spread his tent, at the hand of the children of Hamor, Shechem’s father, for an hundred pieces of money.

And he erected there an altar, and called it EleloheIsrael.” – Genesis 33 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — October 25, 2019

This is the birthday of explorer and pilot Admiral Richard Byrd (1888–1957). His autobiography titled Alone is a must-read.

Margaret Thatcher was born on October 13, 1925.   She was the UK’s first female Prime Minister.  She died in 2013.

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We are running quite low on articles in our queue of writing contest nonfiction articles, so I encourage you to write! Just a 1,500-word article will qualify you for the judging — and the heaps of great prizes. Please share your knowledge, folks. Many Thanks!

 

Running a Gun Show Business – Part 1

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At the urging of my readers and consulting clients, in this piece I’m going to go over the basics of running a gun show business. Renting gun show tables and then selling and/or trading items for tangible gain can be quite fun and rewarding. I rent show tables to make trades, primarily to improve my personal collection. For example, this weekend (Friday and Saturday only–Oct 25 and 26, 2019), I’ll have three tables at the Butte, Montana gun show. I won’t be there on Sunday.

To begin, I must start with some caveats on why renting tables is not for everyone. It takes an outgoing personality. It also takes a commitment of time–not just to travel and attend the shows but also the requisite hours of technical and market research.  You also need to be in good health. Hauling your merchandise in and out of shows takes a bit of physical strength.  And just standing up for 9 or 10 hours a days is demanding for some folks.

It also takes money to buy inventory. This falls in the category of: “It takes money to make money.” Unless you have at least $5,000 in cash or the equivalent in gun-related items that you already own and are willing to turn over in trade, then you should probably not consider a gun show venture. The alternative–that is, starting out with less than $500 worth of goods and gradually “trading up” to a large inventory–would probably prove to be a long and frustrating quest. It really does take some money to make money, in retail sales.

I must also mention that the current legislative war, if lost, might very well destroy gun shows as we now know them. (That is, at least in the 37 states of the Union that currently allow private party sales of post-1898 guns.) So put that risk into your decision matrix.Continue reading“Running a Gun Show Business – Part 1”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at investing in timberland. (See the Commodities section.)

Precious Metals:

Spot rhodium is maintaining its strength longer than I had anticipated.  Congrats to anyone who heeded my “buy” advice, three years ago. It has been an amazing run. But it is definitely time to take your profits on about half of your holdings.

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Gary Tanashian: The Gold Stock Correction And What Lay Ahead

Economy & Finance:

At Zero Hedge: 55 Ways To ‘Starve The Beast’

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Video: They Must Go to INFINITE QE or The System BREAKS — Jim Willie. (The discussion of interest rates starts at around the 19:50 mark.)

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Yep, it is looking like QE (by any other name) infinity, indefinitely. The Wall Street Journal reports: Fed to Increase Temporary Liquidity Available To Markets

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Negative Rates Are Killing The World

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — October 24, 2019

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October 24th is the anniversary of the firing squad execution of Norwegian traitor Vidkun Quisling, in 1945. His ignominious place in history was to have his surname become a noun. “Quisling” is now a moniker synonymous with treason and alliance with an invading army.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 85 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The more than $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3,000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  3. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  4. A $300 purchase credit for any of the products from EMPShield.com
  5. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  7. An assortment of products along with a one hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Good2GoCo.com is providing a $400 purchase credit at regular prices for the prize winner’s choice of either Wise Foods or Augason long term storage foods, in stackable buckets.
  2. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  3. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 85 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.