Paul Tustain: The Crushing Debt Burden = Inflation Ahead = Higher Prices for Gold and Silver

In a recent economic analysis piece featured by our friends at Gold-Eagle.com, (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/tustain120505.html), Paul Tustain outlines just how bad the national debt situations is, he compares our situation to Argentina a few years ago, and he predicts that Uncle Sam will inflate his way out of the jam. My extrapolation of Tustain’s remarks–and from what I’ve read from many other analysts: One likely end result will be a dollar crisis and gold at perhaps $2,000+ per ounce. Meanwhile, the expert “chartists” like Clive Maund (see: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund120505.html) tell us that in the recent run-up past $510 per ounce, gold has pushed so far above the 90 day moving average (90 DMA) so rapidly that it is substantially overbought. (See our free precious metals tickers at the SurvivalBlog Investing page.) The chartists predict a temporary retracement–perhaps bringing gold to as low as $480 per ounce before the bull resumes his charge. That dip might be a buying opportunity for those of you that presently feel like you’ve missed the boat. Maund says that any retracement in silver will be much smaller and shorter-lived. The silver bull, he says, will barely pause to catch its breath. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I predict substantially higher prices for gold and silver before the end of GWB‘s second term.

Letter Re: Bullion Dealer and Question on Recommended Inoculations

Jim:
I have been purchasing my silver from a store in Reno Nevada and have never had a problem with them.
http://www.silverstatecoin.com/

I read your blog everyday at lunch, I enjoy it immensely. I was wondering what your thoughts were on vaccinations.  Last month I was vaccinated for Flu, Pneumonia, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Tetanus and Diphtheria. I am 50 years old and had the usual vaccinations when I was a child, is there anything else that I should consider getting?  Have a Merry Christmas. – Jim from Illinois

JWR Replies:  I have very mixed feelings about inoculations. Currently, with the emerging threat of Asian Avian Flu, the only one inoculation that I strongly recommend getting is Pneumovax 23.  That one is reportedly good for 10+ years and protects against 23 different strains of pneumonia.  It will of course do nothing to stop the Asian Avian Flu itself, but it may prevent pneumonia co-infections.  (Respiratory co-infections are expected to be a big killer if and when Asian Avian Flu ever mutates ito a strain that is easily transmissible between humans.)

Letter Re: Hilltop Retreat Locations Versus Hidden Retreats

Sir:
[Your post on Tuesday December 6, 2005 was] good info on high versus low [retreat terrain selection.] Remember: distance = safety. The further away you are from the threat, the safer you will be from the threat. As a former Recon Marine, I learned first-hand that invisibility is far superior to visibility. Keep a very low profile. Exercise strict noise, light, and movement discipline, and you will have an edge on the competition. Semper Fi, – Old Sarge

More on “Harder Homes and Gardens”

To start, I’d recommend the “5-” series Army Engineer Corps manuals. You will find some great ideas there. There was also an anonymously penned small paperback book titled  “Defending Your Retreat” (1978) published by Delta Press. I assume that it is still in print. It includes good descriptions on placement of defensive
wire, (both concertina and tanglefoot) and one of the best discussions on the use of flares (trip flares and parachute flares) that I’ve seen in print anywhere. The second half of the book is a reprint from an Engineer Corps field manual. IMO, for a retreat house nothing beats living in a masonry, adobe, or  rammed earth house with a fireproof roof. (metal or tile.) Ideally, if there are any exposed beams, they should be swathed in sheet metal to make them less vulnerable to Molotov cocktails. (You can paint the metal to make it look decorative.) The specifications for bulletproof steel window shutters and upgraded doors are described in my novel Patriots.  The novel also mentions a handy formula for calculating the weight of plate steel.  This can be important when considering what sort of hinges are needed, as well as the hoists and or jacks required for handling something that heavy. (I’ve found that a rolling engine hoist works well. The trick is to move very slowly and carefully, with lots of planning and communication/agreement on exactly what is planned by everyone involved before making the smallest move. A moving 200 pound piece of plate steel can be very unforgiving when fingers of toes get in the way–especially if it falling. Remember: 32 feet per second, per second!)

A few years back, I helped a friend design a slip-form concrete house with a native rock facade. The roof is metal, but it is there mainly there for show, since the house also has a 6″ thick reinforced concrete roof, beneath. Since the house sits in a canyon, he only has to worry about one vehicular approach. There are abrupt four foot high terraces and “decorative” concrete planter boxes around the house that prevent vehicles from getting up close and personal. On a related note: A simple solution to the potential RPG/LAW rocket threat is also described in Patriots.

Zimbabwe’s Slow Slide Continues

Mismanaged for many years by a horrendously corrupt and inept communist government, Zimbabwe’s economy is sliding into deeper Schumer. SurvivalBlog reader Lyn recommended this article: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/printpage/0,5942,17457835,00.html
The Australian newspaper reports that the mass inflation continues: “A US dollar now costs $Z61,000 at official rates and $Z85,000 on the black market.”
The economy continues to decline, along with farm production. Now starvation is a real threat in a country that once fed much of sub-Saharan Africa. To make matters worse, the infrastructure is crumbling–including sewage treatment plants. The Australian reports that there is the risk of disease–with cholera and amoebic dysentery likely.

You will note that I often focus on Zimbabwe because it is a prime example of a “slow slide” situation. The conditions go from bad to worse, but gradually, so that there is no decisive trigger for a popular counter-revolution. Pray for the people of Zimbabwe. Comrade Mugabe and his cronies must go!

Letter Re: On Brass Recycling

The note from "Christian Souljer" in the Pacific Northwest today (Monday) points out the elevated price available when recycling brass. I was talking to
Nikki at River Valley Ordnance (http://www.rvow.com) the other day. [She told me that] brass is high now because China is paying top dollar for brass, including the once-fired brass that RVOW would normally buy from the government to remanufacture for us non- government types. Not so long ago, RVOW was able to buy .223 [U.S. military 5.56mm NATO M16 brass] in 5,000 pound lots; Nikki says it looks like the minimums are going up, possibly to 100,000 pound lots, because Chinese are buying so much surplus brass. I wonder why… Do you remember reading about how much scrap iron the Japanese were buying from us in the 1930s? – Dave in Omaha

JWR Replies:  It isn’t just brass, Dave. According to Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (http://www.scrap.org), the mainland Chinese have also driven up the prices of scrap steel, stainless steel, nickel (to make stainless steel), copper, bronze, and lead.  In many cases they are buying everything that they can lay there hands on. Note that the following observation may just be evidence of that "free floating  anxiety" that I was once accused of in a televised debate, but methinks that the extent of the Chinese scrap metal buying frenzy cannot be attributed solely to China’s economic renaissance.

Letter Re: Motorcycle Vulnerability to EMP?

Dear Mr. Rawles,
Do you have any information on the vulnerability of modern motorcycles to an EMP? I do not currently own one, though thinking seriously about buying one (a model with off road capabilities has a lot of potential as a back-up escape vehicle) . The information I’ve read on the web (about EMP and vehicles) is all focused on automobiles. Sincerely, – James K., Peoples Republic of Kalifornia

JWR Replies: Sorry, but that is outside of my base of knowledge. Perhaps one of our readers will chime in with some details.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

Lest we forget: "Yesterday, December 7, 1941 – a date which will live in infamy – the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan…As Commander-in-Chief of the Army and Navy, I have directed that all measures be taken for our defense…With confidence in our armed forces – with the unbounded determination of our people – we will gain the inevitable triumph – so help us God."
– President Franklin D. Roosevelt – December 8,1941

Note from JWR:

Don’t forget to place your order for your SurvivalBlog merchandise soon to be sure to have it in time for Christmas.  A SurvivalBlog logo T-shirt, hat, or bumper sticker is the ultimate conversation starter–one, in fact, that may help you meet important friends–perhaps friends that will save your life.

Hilltop Retreat Locations Versus Hidden Retreats

I often have SurvivalBlog readers and consulting clients ask me about the “ideal” terrain for a rural survival retreat house. I must report that there is no single “best” answer because there are significant trade-offs related to terrain. Castles were situated on hilltops for centuries, for obvious reasons: Enemies had to fight uphill Defenders were able to see approaching armies from a long distance. They were also able to exploit the potential energy of stored boulders and other heavy objects. However, in the context of a modern survival retreat, a commanding position makes hilltop structures hard to miss.

The goals of privacy and advantageous fields of fire are often mutually exclusive. Likewise, a hilltop position and a spring water supply are also mutually exclusive in all but the rarest of cases.

I did some consulting for one retreat owner in the Inland Northwest who owns a small secluded side canyon that adjoins a fairly major river. From nearly all of this 120 acre parcel there is no line of sight to neighboring ranch houses. It is a landlocked parcel–you must transit through a half mile of a neighboring ranch before reaching to the highway.  There is only one viable road approach to the property. With dense timber in the canyon, the access road is a long series of potential ambush sites for defense. The canyon is narrow enough that if the road were blocked–(by a D6 Caterpillar tractor and/or fallen trees, for instance)–there would be no way to get vehicles in there. Just one well-positioned listening post/observation post (LP/OP) would provide plenty of warning time under most circumstances. In my opinion, if a particular group of looters is stealthy enough to approach without being noticed by a 24 hour LP/OP and seismic intrusion detection sensors, then they would be a  formidable test to any retreat’s security, regardless of terrain advantages or disadvantages.

Being down in a canyon is also has an advantage for noise and light discipline.  When everyone for miles has no power, and you still do, (because you planned ahead and put in a PV, wind power, and/or microhydro power system), those lights can be a “come loot me” beacon. Sitting on high ground further magnifies the effect. (Blackout blinds and other countermeasures are mentioned in my novel Patriots.) Further, a retreat on commanding high ground is a lot more likely to be spotted by looters making a “sweep” through an area than one that is nestled down in a tree-filled canyon. The major drawback–as is often mentioned–is the inherent disadvantage of being on low ground versus high ground. In general, I agree that it is best to opt for a piece of high ground with open fields of fire. In this particular instance, however, I supported the decision on where to build the house. The owner realizes that his decision will necessitate posting more security (including a seismic intrusion detection system) to allow more warning time of anyone approaching on foot.  The worst case would be a large group approaching on foot by an unlikely route (i.e. not on the road), at night.  Under circumstances like that, it would take a very hard home, indeed, to keep the bad guys from coming in the door. OBTW, I’ll have more on the “Harder Homes and Gardens” aspects of retreat architecture in an upcoming post.

Letter Re: David in Israel’s Article on Expedient Shelter/Greenhouses

Mr. Rawles,
I am an avid gardener, motivated by a belief in producing as much of my own food as I can. There are many, many ways to devise your own greenhouse. Given a situation where you have limited supplies, this gets interesting. Being a cheap Yankee, I don’t like buying much unless I really need to. But sometimes it’s better to pay and have, than to wait for the time to make something you may never have. After researching quite a bit on the topic of greenhouses, I decided to go with a hoop house. (See: http://www.hoophouse.com/) I just wanted to get the ball rolling. A number of things I noted:
-They are located in New England, so I could reasonably compare their experience to mine (and shipping was cheaper)
-Snow-loads have not been a problem. I’ve swept off over 1.5 feet of wet, northeast snow and noticed very little structural stress.
-When I got the delivery I said something to the effect of “that’s it?” the materials included are very small, so buying a kit, or taking one down with the anticipation of putting it in a truck and heading are both very realistic
-Once you get the kit, and look at the components: you will also probably say “that’s it?!” because most or all of the items (except for the UV [resistant] plastic) are readily found at a hardware store (you’d need a tubing bender to get some stuff right). My point is that once you saw it maybe you’d be industrious enough to make your own kits to sell or trade.
-Having wooden sides, adding a small wood stove is a simple task. For fun, I have enjoyed February days out there, burning just a little wood. I am confident that I could live in this shelter with that small wood stove.
-As of late November, I am still picking greens and carrots. Spring and fall months I plant cold hardy crops you cannot plant in the garden. Summer I plant stuff that doesn’t usually have a chance here in northern Vermont. This past summer I harvested 30 pounds of sweet red peppers from just two 3’x6′ beds. The mantra is ‘plant in season.’ I also get my seedlings started out here before they head outdoors.

I’ll wrap this up with a couple of other points to consider:
-It is very important to remember this: during winter months you are not so much ‘growing’ as you are extending the harvest. Elliot Coleman’s book goes into great length of this alternate mindset.  See: http://www.fourseasonfarm.com/main/harvest/harvest.html Expecting to grow tomatoes in January is fine if you have a powerful heat source and supplemental light. That is not for what we are planning for.
-See: http://www.radiantcompany.com/ These guys are not just selling catalogue items here. They are living the life. A simple incorporation of solar and
radiant (perhaps you already have solar? or burn wood and would like to capture some of that heat for other means?) into a greenhouse would make a
world of difference. We should all be planning on sustainable heat sources rather than trying to power a 60,000 BTU propane heater in the greenhouse. (It defeats the purpose.) In conclusion, I think that a hoop house could be a perfect shelter to get someone started. Like a mini-Earthship, you can live and grow food with it. – Z.H. in Vermont

Letter Re: On Brass Recycling

The note from “Christian Souljer” in the Pacific Northwest today (Monday) points out the elevated price available when recycling brass. I was talking to
Nikki at River Valley Ordnance (http://www.rvow.com) the other day. [She told me that] brass is high now because China is paying top dollar for brass, including the once-fired brass that RVOW would normally buy from the government to remanufacture for us non- government types. Not so long ago, RVOW was able to buy .223 [U.S. military 5.56mm NATO M16 brass] in 5,000 pound lots; Nikki says it looks like the minimums are going up, possibly to 100,000 pound lots, because Chinese are buying so much surplus brass. I wonder why… Do you remember reading about how much scrap iron the Japanese were buying from us in the 1930s? – Dave in Omaha

JWR Replies:  It isn’t just brass, Dave. According to Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (http://www.scrap.org), the mainland Chinese have also driven up the prices of scrap steel, stainless steel, nickel (to make stainless steel), copper, bronze, and lead.  In many cases they are buying everything that they can lay there hands on. Note that the following observation may just be evidence of that “free floating  anxiety” that I was once accused of in a televised debate, but methinks that the extent of the Chinese scrap metal buying frenzy cannot be attributed solely to China’s economic renaissance.

Odds ‘n Sods:

For those of you that read German, consider this interesting web site:  http://www.survival.4u.org  (A lot of the links are to English sites. I hadn’t seen some of these links aggregated anywhere else–for example the ones on meteor strikes )

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If you are looking for some military surplus bargains, see:  http://www.drms.com  (Here is your chance to attend a DRMO auction and pick up, for example, some bales of concertina wire at scrap metal prices.)

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There are some interesting surplus dealer links at: http://www.jackwalters.com/links/surplusgoods.html  Some of these guys should be advertising on SurvivalBlog!