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Hi,
I just completed reading a book entitled, “Return of the Black Death: The World’s Greatest Serial Killer” by Susan Scott and Christopher Duncan.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470090014/qid=1139236750/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/002-5674396-9500863?s=books&v=glance&n=283155
This book is a history of the Black Death that gripped Europe from October of 1347 through the late 1600s. The premise of the book is that the disease that caused the plague was NOT the Bubonic Plague – which is spread by rat fleas and is a bacteria – but a viral disease and a version of hemorrhagic fever possibly related to Ebola. They make the case rather convincingly based upon accounts of the course of the disease that were written at the time and on records kept by local church parishes of deaths from the plague via which they are able to follow the course of the disease in a number of small towns.
From the records it is easy to see that the disease did not spread in a manner which would be typical for a disease spread by rats and fleas, but was consistent with a disease spread by human contact. The book convinced me that their premise is correct and that we have much to fear from a possible re-emergence of this disease. At the time of its first emergence the disease took three years to kill half the population of Europe – moving at essentially a walking pace from its point of origin in Italy up through central Europe then England, Scandinavia, and finally even Iceland. Today the progress would be MUCH more rapid. The really scary part about the original Black Death is that a person is contagious for about three weeks before they even become aware that they are infected. The course of the disease is generally about 37 days. The latent period (the period where one is infected but not infectious) being about 12 days, followed by an infectious period of about 21 days which is BEFORE the first symptoms appear. Then the symptomatic period is generally one to five days before death finally occurs. The symptoms initially consist of red and/or black splotches on the chest known at the time as God’s Tokens – from the time the “Tokens”appear a person generally has about three days to live.
On your web site there is has been talk about self quarantine and what sort of time frame one would need to prepare for. This book gives a pretty good idea based on real events. First they tried 30 days and the disease still spread so, over time the quarantine period was changed to 40 days. This fits with the books view of the course of the disease – a person who is infected might not be showing any signs at 30 days so the quarantine must extend beyond that. The 40 day quarantine period was enough to stop the spread of the disease, but only in households where they already knew the disease was present. So, if someone in a house became sick with the plague the house was quarantined for 40 days from the last signs of the disease. For example, if the father becomes sick and shows signs of the plague then the house is quarantined for 40 days from his death or recovery. If anyone else becomes sick after that time – during the quarantine – the quarantine period is extended for an additional 40 days from that person’s death or recovery.
Finally, it can be seen from examples given in the book that a better self quarantine period for people trying to avoid the disease completely is something on the order of 18 months to 2 years. For example, in the town of Penrith, in England, the disease struck in September of 1597. The last recorded case of death by plague in the town from this same outbreak was in January of 1599! The population of the town was about 1350 people at the start and by the end of the epidemic about 640 people died from the black death – 48% of the town died in the epidemic! In another town named Eyam – also in England and also using the church records – the disease follows the same course, with one twist. The inhabitants of the town agreed to create their own quarantine or “cordon sanitaire” around the town and allow no-one in or out as they were the only town in the area with the plague and did not want to spread it to others. The outbreak started in the summer of 1665 and continued through the following fall and winter and re-emerged with renewed intensity during the spring and summer of 1666 until it finally burned out during that winter with the last recorded death from plague being in December 1666. The town had 350 inhabitants before the plague and 260 died of it – a death rate of 75%! The Rector of the town, who survived the epidemic, wrote the following in a letter to his father after the plague has passed: “The condition of this place hath been so dreadful that I persuade myself it exceedeth all history and example. I may truly say that our Town has become a Golgotha, a place of skulls; and had there not been a small amount of us left, we had been as Sodom and like unto Gomorrah. My ears never heard such doleful lamentations. My nose never smelt such noisome smells and my eyes never beheld such ghastly spectacles.”
I consider myself fairly knowledgeable on a lot of these things, but this book was a real eye opener on what happened during the time of the Black Death and how drastically it affected society. Another thing that I found very interesting was how quickly society recovered. However, I think that is based on the level of knowledge at the time. Virtually everyone knew how to raise their own food and specialization was not so pronounced. If the same plague were to strike today I am quite sure that our society would collapse for an extended period of time. We are much too interdependent and people do NOT have the knowledge of how everything worked as the people of that time did. I came away from reading this book with a new found desire to increase my supplies and preparedness! – Tim P.