Letter Re: Countdown to Collapse

Jim:
I think we now have another way to compute the countdown to the collapse of our society as we know it.
Several months ago I read on one of the economic web sites, we both visit, that for every penny the price of fuel goes up $1,400,000 per day is sucked out of the consumer economy.
With oil at $74 per barrel today and the PENAC people pushing for another Middle East war, this one with Iran, we are looking at oil reaching $125 per barrel or higher as soon as this dumb war starts. This translates to $5.25 – $6.00 per gallon fuel by October / November.

The media and the economists are now saying that we will have $4.00 per gallon fuel by June 1 on current oil prices. One of my trusted friends is telling me that fuel is already $3.90 per gallon is some rural California cities.
I believe that the true unemployed figure here in the US is more than 12%. And, that the underemployed figure is 6% to 10% With our millions of unemployed, increased fuel costs will dry up the economy before winter this year. That means the crash will come before the first of the year.
Just using the preceding figure of $1.4MM per day being sucked out of the consumer economy the numbers look something like this.
1 cent per gal increase = $1,400,000 per day.
50 cent per gal increase = $70,000,000 per day.
100 cent per gal increase = $140,000,000 per day.
150 cent per gal increase = $210,000,000 per day.
30 days at 150 cent per day increase = $6,300,000,000 . That number is six billion three hundred million dollars being sucked out of the consumer economy in 30 days ending June 30, 2006.
Granted there are all kind of formulas to compute the disastrous affects of such an increase and my math is simple and rough, however, the American people cannot withstand such a hit and survive as a nation.
Now look at the global effects of a war with Iran. The US purchases no oil from Iran. Most of Iran’s oil is sold to Europe and other nations. A dumb nuclear strike or using depleted uranium ammo on Iran will contaminate that country for many lifetimes. Oil will trickle out of Iran just like oil from Iraq fluctuates. The price of oil will skyrocket as nations compete for available oil. The high price of fuel will curtail farming, food packaging, trucking, energy production, manufacturing, construction and the economy. The economies of many countries of the world will crash because the fiat dollar is the current primary global unit of International exchange. The Euro will crash a short time later because their central banks are tied to our central bank.
Yes, the crash can be put off for a little while by nationalizing the oil companies, major manufacturing, restricting travel, electrical use and subsidizing the farmers, but it will come regardless because you cannot build a nation on usury. Usury violates the 10th commandment and mocks God.
The lack of or the price of oil will soon bring our nation to a standstill, with or without another un Constitutional war. Civil unrest will surface and Americans will start taking out their frustrations on all foreign workers holding work visas, illegal border jumpers (the uncharged criminals living of America), the owners of businesses who hire foreigners, the banks that do business with them, foreign embassy consulates, the PACs, NGOs, churches, and the globalist in America. Under the guise of Homeland Security our anti American government employees will try to intervene and that will foster rebellion in various parts of the country. I am thankful I do not live in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, California or any sanctuary city. My brother and his entire extended family just moved to Idaho without any encouragement from me.
Now I am sure there are some economic professionals who visit this blog and can provide a better analysis than myself and I welcome their comments as to when we might expect the crash. I will go out on a limb and say, that absent government intervention it will probably come before the first of the year. Regardless, it is coming, and very soon.
Sincerely, – Rosy the Bull in Montana

Letter Re: A Good Source for Battle Dress Uniforms (BDUs)

Jim:
Here is the best place by far that I have found when it comes to quality BDUs and good prices: www.BDU.com. I have ordered from them in the past, and the next time I order I’m going to tell them about SurvivalBlog.- Gung Ho

JWR Adds: For any SurvivalBlog readers that live in sagebrush country, I highly recommend the new U.S. Army gray-green “digital” camouflage pattern. You will blend in very well in sagebrush. The only drawback is that these uniforms have some Velcro closures which are noisy.

Kate “Short Fuse” Incontrera of The Daily Reckoning on The Next Great Depression

We asked you this week, dear reader: What will the next Great Depression bring? How will Americans survive in our day-to-day lives? The responses to this not-so-hypothetical query continue to clog up our inbox, which doesn’t surprise us. What does surprise us, however, is how united our readers are on this subject. Not one message lamented on how strong our economy is right now, and how we are fools for even bringing up the possibility of another Great Depression. Each e-mail portrayed how
real this idea is to Americans – that something this bad could be right around the corner.
“A Great Depression signals a swerve in global direction, a massive transformation of the world society and economy,” says echolist.com.
“One great system perishes. The Great Depression marked a critical stage in a transformation of the global economy that began around 1900. That’s when the Industrial Economy of the 19th century slowly and fitfully began to morph into the 20th century’s Consumer Economy. To tame the almost naked continent of 1845, the Industrial Economy required immense savings. To save and invest became the 11th Commandment. Imagine. Americans saved up to 40 percent of their income!”
Apparently, we learned nothing from the events that occurred over seventy years ago. The U.S. savings rate has fallen into the negative level for the first time since the Great Depression. Debt, consumer and national, is skyrocketing. We continue to see people dig themselves deeper and deeper into debt, with no regard for preparing for the future.
“Having parents who lived through the First Depression (during the late 1920s-1930s), and having a father-in-law who was the proverbial ‘packrat’ (among other things, 7 washing machines, 15 vacuum cleaners, etc., when we cleaned out his house) they all had the mentality that nothing was wasted;
everything had value; and that what they had was of good quality,” writes one Daily Reckoning reader.
“Today we have very little of this. We do not know how to fix anything, build anything, or save anything of quality (because what little we have is made to expire and be thrown away).
“I personally can not imagine what it will be like when our dollar is worthless, and the shelves at the stores display a few dented cans of beans that are selling for whatever the price of an ounce of silver (or gold for that matter) is worth.
“Who among us will be able to keep the lights on, the water running, and our cars tuned?! What jobs will pay the best? For that matter, what jobs will be available for any of us? And what about our children? How will we care, feed, and educate them?
“I am half-empty kinda of person, but what I see ahead for the USA scares me very much (especially since it will stretch into my elder years of
life). It is going to be a very hand-to-mouth existence, with a lot of sadness, anger, and senseless violence (over simple everyday commodities).”
Short Fuse – The Daily Reckoning.
JWR Adds: The Daily Reckoning is one of my daily “must reads.” Subscriptions are free.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Spot silver is down to around $12.00 on profit taking. If you haven’t already diversified into precious metals, then I recommend that you buy on these dips. The long term trend is definitely upward. (See the six month and one year charts at Kitco.)

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“My Night with The Minutemen” by Bryanna Bevens

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Hurricane Katrina, first hand evacuation experiences

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Gary Duncan of the Times of London on Avoiding an Economic Earthquake

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The Kiplinger Letter has made the following energy price forecasts: Crude oil early July ’06: $82 by Dec. ’06: $68, Gasoline early July ’06: $3.50 December ’06: $2.75, Diesel Fuel early July ’06: $3.50 December ’06: $3.00. Top off your storage tanks NOW.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Chinese President Hu Jintao didn’t mince words: China’s currency will stay where it is. For the second time in less than a year Asia’s No. 2 economy outmaneuvered the world’s biggest on the yuan. Last July, China announced a negligible 2.1 percent increase in its currency’s value versus the dollar. This week Hu, on his first official U.S. visit, didn’t budge amid Bush’s concerns an undervalued yuan is costing the U.S. jobs.” – William Pesek, in a recent editorial for Bloomberg.com

Note from JWR:







My sincere thanks to those of you that have kindly subscribed for $3 per month as part of the 10 Cent Challenge. To eke out a living as a full time blogger, I need at least another 200 subscribers. If you find what you read here has some value, please do your bit. BTW, if you already have a PayPal account, subscribing takes less than a minute.

By clicking on the PayPal button above, you can automatically bill your credit card or PayPal balance for a monthly charge of $3.00. Many Thanks!

Letter Re: New Routes for the Next Houston Hurricane Evacuation

Jim,
Between work and studies, I came across an article in my local newspaper about new evacuation routes for the Houston area during hurricane season. I stayed out of the last one, but came real close to riding my bike to College Station, our evac[uation] rendezvous point. I don’t think the police would have taken kindly to someone riding down the highway on a Schwinn with a Remington 870 on his back.
Anyway, the article got me thinking about the gridlock people suffered and the ensuing confusion that lasted for a couple of days. If I didn’t see anything on evac & evasion on SurvivalBlog, then I must have missed it, but what knowledge can you or some of the other contributors provide that can make an evacuation go quicker? The local government’s plan is to open contra-flow lanes on most of the major arteries leading out of Houston. The plan also calls for pre-positioned fuel trucks and tow trucks along those highways. Gas stations are also encouraged to stay open and medical services will be provided for every few miles. Sounds like a larger version of the MS 150 ride I will partake in this weekend (except with cars). Our mayor is an avid cyclist, and I am sure he was thinking of that same thing. How can a prepared individual and his family avoid the mayhem and confusion that plagued Houston last time? Sorry, I couldn’t find the link to the article. Peace, – Shooter

Two Letters Re: Dealing with Illegal Immigration in the U.S.

Mr. Rawles:

This is in response to Michael Z Williamson’s arguments concerning the ongoing illegal alien problem. I have heard his arguments for the past 20 years..they are repeated over and over on talk radio (in my consideration a waste of time–most people simply regurgitate what the government suggests via the talk radio host, usually a buffoon more interested in his 6 or 7 figure salary than solving problems). We as a nation have an obligation and a duty to retain our borders, culture and language. We owe it to those that came before us and to those that will come after. What we lack is will. The billions quoted to address the problem are a drop in the bucket compared to what we have so far expended on a foreign excursion that had no clear goals and was based on lies. A lot of the so called ‘patriots’ in this country and the churchgoers have stood by largely quite while a few have been lucid enough to see the problem for what it is, an invasion. What Americans need to do is put down the remote control and stop letting their sports games, fast food, internet pornography and silly useless hobbies dictate their lives and address this problem for what it is. You are certainly right when you stated that we will one day wake up and we will be strangers in our own land. Their isn’t an exodus of largely white americans leaving the southwest because they hate the warmth and sunshine. Its because they see an invasion within their midst and their culture being dismantled and those charged with protecting the fragile society we live in doing nothing. We can all shoot our guns, buy more ammo and prepare for the ‘end times’ till the cows come home but all that will be largely useless if we simply accept this invasion on the grounds that it is somehow inhumane or bigoted to not jealously guard what is ours. As a nation of far less people over 60 years ago we fought a two front war, produced nearly 4,500 planes a month and countless other munitions, supplies and resources and as well put nearly 20 million of our men into uniform to protect the rest of the world from tyranny. To say we cant address this problem with even a fraction of that effort is insulting. Thanks, – Jason in North Idaho

 

James:

Michael Z. Williamson’s letter about the problems with building a border fence is a good, logical analysis of the problem. Perhaps there are other solutions.
Asset (or civil) forfeiture is not popular with many constitutionalists, but it is in fact constitutional. It was employed by the states from before the signing of the constitution to the present. Unlike today, it was originally used at the border, to seize contraband goods. In so doing, it helped enforce our borders. And it could help us do so today. I would like to see the Federal Government seize any recordable property belonging to illegal immigrants, on the grounds that the property is being used to aid and abet their illegal presence in the United States. Illegals won’t want to stay if they can’t own real property in the US. And fewer will come if they don’t think they can stay.
I am quite against some of the other modern uses of asset forfeiture – seizures based on some “malum prohibitum” crime that offend the “morals” of the government. But if it were returned to its original purpose – to enforce our borders – it might become respectable again. – Sun Dog

Odds ‘n Sods:

The switch from MTBE to ethanol for gasoline oxygenation has caused a Gas Shortage on U.S. East Coast

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A Titan 1 Missile Base in Eastern Washington is Being Auctioned on eBay. Wow! 57 acres, 120,000 square feet of underground space, and hundreds of million of dollars worth of concrete. It has been bid up to $476,000 and there are still two weeks until the end of the auction. I spoke briefly with the seller about the property. He said that the nice thing about this one is that the water table is down at the 400 foot level. Thus, there has been no groundwater intrusion into the silos–a common problem found in missile bases in other areas. This one is also fairly well removed from likely nuke targets. (Some of the other missile bases that have recently been for sale are in the middle of active Peacekeeper missile fields!) BTW, for some similar properties, see http://www.missilebases.com

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Victor Davis Hanson opines: Where are People More Safe? — Iraq Versus California

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A scholarly analysis on Multiculturalism, Immigration, and Aztlan by Maria Hsia Chang

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“Biosecurity” is the buzzword du jour at chicken, turkey and egg operations across the country.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“It’s the same with white people. They cleared the forest, they dug up the land, and they gave us the flu. But they also brought power tools and penicillin and Ben and Jerry’s ice cream.” – Elaine Miles as Marilyn Whirlwind, Northern Exposure

Letter Re: Questions on The Paratus Farms Development–Water Versus Defensible Terrain

Jim,
Is there a stream at all [on the Paratus Farms Property]? Seems like a plateau would not have any streams or open water.

[One passage deleted, for OPSEC.]

By the way, thanks for the insight on silver. Based on your tip, I bought junk silver when it was at $7.80. It’s hard to believe it’s already over $13. Cheers, – Rookie

JWR Replies: The Paratus Farms project is still stalled because of finances, so your question is largely rhetorical at this point. But it does raise an important issue for retreat site selection: Water versus defensible terrain. Yes, The Paratus Farms property is a plateau, but it is a big plateau (nearly one square mile on the plateau top) in an area with precipitation almost year round. There is one stream that runs off the north end of the plateau. It runs 10 months of the year. In an absolute worst case multi-generational total collapse (when even photovoltaic well pumps could fail), for two months out of the year residents would have to either hike a half mile down to the year round creeks and river (on three sides) for water, or pull water up by hand from wells. The static level of the well water will be around 100 feet.) Yes, both are laborious.

Consider that access to water and defensible terrain have been trade offs since the earliest days of castle construction in Europe. If you want plentiful water, by definition you will not be on defensible high ground. In a societal collapse there will be plenty of rural locales with good farm land and water. But very few of them are suitable for defense by a small group. In my estimation, a well-trained squad on the Paratus plateau could hold off a full company of marauders. There is only one road in to the property and its seven hilltops provide mutually supporting fields of fire. Unless they are suicidal, looters will find easier pickings elsewhere.

Two Letters Re: Cell Phone E-911 Tracking

I’m an engineer working on E911 systems and I’d like to correct this whole post. I’ve included some references so all your readers can peer review.
> #1 The chip does not function unless you either… Incorrect. The requirements typically state for Public Safety and in support of local laws, the mobile station (cell phone) has to handle all network requests for location.
> #2 Its not real GPS. There are two separate systems that can be hybridized together.
First is the network based system described above that works great in urban areas with lots of compatible cell towers. It is fast, but it can not get down to 3 ft., maybe 100 m.
The second system is Mobile Station based (Cell phone) and it typically uses GPS just like a Garmin. It works great in rural areas. It is not so great in large cities as all the concrete, steel and coated glass both block and reflect the GPS signals. A differential GPS system in time can achieve accuracies in cm. However just like your Garmin, it can take a long while to search for satellites and download the data from them.
The hybridized systems, where the network and the mobile work together, can achieve the best of both accuracy/speed and urban/rural performance. The network can tell the GPS on the mobile station approximate time, approximate position (with xx km of the cellular tower), where the satellites are in the sky and lots of other information that it would take your Garmin 20 minutes to get from the satellites.Reference. Section 10.10 GPS Assistance Data for more information. This document applies to GSM and 3G/UMTS phones, but it is not atypical.
Also the new hybridized systems can combine the cell tower ranging with the GPS satellite ranging to get a system that works where neither system alone will.
#3 While it is possible…
Ah, no. The solution is Periodic measurements. in other words generating a location every 5 minutes would not affect battery life much. It is used to track commercial delivery personnel all the time.
#4 Yes there really is….
Again no. This is internet Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). The FCC requirement is that x% of mobile stations can be located to certain accuracy. GPS is not a requirement.
Reference.
#5 There is also the secondary issue.
The analog is not illegal, yet. It is just not cost effective for the bandwidth reasons. Second for some networks that depend on GPS in the mobile station (typically CDMA), the old phones stand in the way of meeting the FCC requirement.
#6 Analog shutoff.
I do not have any information on this.
#7 Cell phones use lots of electrical power…
Motorola Razor talk time 200-430 minutes. Standby 180-290 hours. Reference [JWR Adds: I believe that the writer was referring to cell phone cell tower facilities rather than hand-held cell phones themselves.]

As to charging more during blackouts, any company that did this would invite a class action lawsuit for breach of contract and endangering the public.

OBTW, one other bit of FUD that I’d like to comment on:
Yes, off does not mean off in regards to modern electronic devices including cellular phones. While “off” they may need to support an alarm clock, calendar alerts, monitor battery charging, alert for low battery and do a lot of other things. However, removing all the power sources kills anything! If your phone continues to run without a charger or batteries, I think you could name your price to sell it to any of the big cell phone companies. – Raven

 

 

Jim,
I have personally been present, when a ‘Federal investigator’ ordered a cell phone security manager (what the heck that is I don’t know) to ‘turn on’ a particular Electronic Serial Number (ESN).

It was my understanding that the phone had to be ‘on’ in the first place. It was explained to me that there was a dual mode capability. One was the retransmission of GPS positioning data and the second triangulation.

We found the ‘bad guy’ we were looking for for a covert surveillance regarding a narcotics investigation.

He wasn’t in a call – it was a pretty weird moment for me to see this happen, and it was about four years ago. I can only imagine the capabilities built into the system mandated by post-9/11 are more enhanced than then.

I trust the data given to me by the writer about GPS positioning as he understood it. I saw different. The federal investigator was pretty closed mouth about it, and the black box he used that (I suppose) received the data was no larger than a lunchbox. Steered us right in.

I’ve long ago given up on trying to maintain much privacy in my electronic life. I really don’t have much to hide, but if I did – electronics wouldn’t have any place in my home. – Jimsee

Odds ‘n Sods:

From Fortune magazine: Ready for $262 Per Barrel Oil?

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A new Biodiesel Reactor Technology was announced by Oregon State University researchers. For some technical details, see this PDF.

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Some interesting commentary on the Refuge Blog: “Mistaken Entitledness is a Core Global Issue”

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U.S. Agriculture Secretary Johanns releases national animal ID implementation plan. For details, see the USDA’s official plan (a PDF.) Be careful not to be fooled by their claims of “extensive dialogue with producers and industry organizations across the country.” The NAIS is being advocated by the big agri-corps as a method to eliminate competition and gain access to foreign markets. Preventing disease is just an excuse. Please see the NoNAIS.org website for the other side of the debate. Please spread the word about this treachery. NoNAIS has several nice posters, pamphlets, and flyers that you can be print out.

Letter Re: Cell Phone E-911 Tracking

Dear Jim,

Someone wrote about E911 phones and GPS tracking. I worked in that industry, with that specific issue and I can provide some facts.

#1 The chip does not function unless you either Dial 911 or turn it to Location On, which shows a circle with a plus sign through it and two end parentheses to its right. It is common to see the circle-plus sign without the parentheses. Check your manual to verify this. It will list this under “icons” or E911. Phones come with them preset to “911 only”, not “on”. Phones from Nextel/Sprint or using location based services must have the GPS turned on to work.

#2 Its not real GPS. It does not talk to satellites. Its just triangulating on the company towers. This gives an accuracy of +/- 3 feet but its main purpose is to get you to the nearest 911 call center in the event you dial 911. That’s about it.

#3 While it is possible the phone operating systems could be fibbing and the Location service could be on when it says its off, that is unlikely since it would affect battery life, require violation of customer privacy rights, risks lawsuits when exposed, and requires a conspiracy to accomplish, the black helicopter kind. I’m not a fan of conspiracies since humans are very good at bungling basic stuff and very bad at keeping secrets. It is far more likely that it really is off, just like it says.

#4 Yes, there really IS a law enacted by FCC back on Sept 12, 2001 that required these chips to be mandated into phones by July 1, 2005 and all non GPS phones taken out of service by the end of 2006. Some of my former customers had received letters from their carriers and verified by the FCC to this effect.

#5 There’s also the secondary issue that older phones typically have stronger and now illegal analog signal amplifiers which when running analog can block more than 720 digital calls. This has been a real waste of bandwidth and the FCC has been after the cell companies to get them off the market and into the garbage bins. The companies have handled it by offering incentives to change out the phone for a newer model with E911 and usually all digital. All digital phones don’t hog bandwidth, don’t block other’s calls, but don’t really work in the boonies either. For the boonies, you need a Tri-Mode phone. This means digital and analog backup. You also need an extendable antenna. A stub antenna is nearly worthless in analog areas because the signal won’t propagate well. Many phones have plugs for antenna extension kits, the kind you can mount on a car roof and a small cable and jack to plug into the phone. Those work well, BTW.

#6 The boonies are mostly analog until Jan 1 2008, when all analog cell service is turned OFF, permanently, another FCC mandate. This means that either these sites get upgraded to digital or they lose their licenses, probably auctioned off and end up with big carriers. The carriers will do a cost study and decide for themselves whether said boonies are worth converting to digital or if they’ll just let them die with no signal. Some sites may not get bought and those regions may lose cell service entirely. Cell companies are very greedy, keep in mind. If they can’t make a huge profit, they won’t do it at all. A small profit or slow profit is not within their timescale. It is likely that many rural areas with low populations will lose cell service entirely.

#7 Cell phones use lots of electrical power. This means that in blackouts, while they do have generators, those must be topped off. In a survival situation or one of slowly deteriorating conditions they will work, at first. The more phones in digital, the less issues with blocked service. After spending lots of money and time topping off tanks it is highly likely, if the conditions persist, that cell companies will start charging more money for calls made during blackouts than ones when the power is on. Expect to have to pay a hefty premium and overage rates for calls made during blackouts. The companies have not released any plans for this, but they already produced emergency blackout kits for their retail stores last summer, as if they fully expect to operate when the power is out, which is particularly weird since you can’t activate or change service without computer access to the network switches. Hope this info helps. Best, – Marshall