Letter Re: Is Katrina a Harbinger of an Economic 9/11?


Jim:
Not looking good these days. It is chaos down south. Those poor people, may God be with them in their time of need. What is your opinion on the current state of
the union? Gas prices, oil supplies in doubt. Do you think this could be the harbinger of an economic 9/11? I hate to admit it, but I do.

JWR’s Reply: Perhaps you might be right. There is the outside chance that this could be “it“: You know, The Big One. WTSHTF. Total wipeout. The Day. TEOTWAWKI. The Crunch. But something that drastic would surely take several more dominoes falling first. (Read my August 5/6/7 posts for details on my conception of a full scale TEOTWAWKI sequence of events.)

Something big such as a major earthquake or a major terrorist incident could tip several dominoes all at once. The next likely domino after something like a fuel crisis would be a major jump in interest rates. I think that because of Katrina the Federal Reserve may stop its current cycle of raising interest rates, and could in fact start to nudge them downward. That could keep the housing bubble inflating even longer. (So when it does pop, it will be worse.) Also, consider the home construction and home supply sector (the latter including companies like Home Depot and Lowe’s) which had been faltering, may actually benefit from Katrina.

The big imponderable is the drag on the economy caused by the present upward spiral of fuel prices. At the minimum, I think that this could throw us back into a recession. Worst case is that it could cause a depression, exacerbated by the concomitant pop in the housing bubble. (Read: A very painful and a long term economic whammy–perhaps a decade or more.)

Buckle you seat belt. We are in for a roller coaster ride. IMHO the Hurricane Katrina disaster means that the likelihood of a hyperinflationary depression (a la my novel Patriots) has increased. (That would be Uncle Sugar’s expedient solution to a dollar crisis. They could just inflate their way out of it and conveniently wipe out the national debt in the process. (Along with everyone’s life savings–virtually anything invested in anything denominated in U.S. dollars. That explains why I emphasize investing in tangibles.) But regardless, try to get out of debt, because if things tip into a deflationary depression, it will be even more severe than the 1930s.Being a debtor in the midst of a deflation is a Very Bad Thing (VBT).

Most importantly, pray for God’s guidance, providence, and protection. That is our only real hope. Trust in God to put you in the right place at the right time, with the right friends. Blessed assurance is the best insurance of all.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“My life goes on in endless song
above earth’s lamentations,
I hear the real, though far-off hymn
that hails a New Creation. Through all the tumult and the strife
I hear its music ringing,
it sounds an echo in my soul.
How can I keep from singing?
While though the tempest loudly roars,
I hear the truth it liveth.
And though the darkness ’round me close,
songs in the night it giveth. No storm can shake my inmost calm
While to that rock I’m clinging.
Since love is lord of heaven and earth,
how can I keep from singing? When tyrants tremble in their fear
and hear their death knell ringing,
when friends rejoice both far and near
how can I keep from singing? In prison cell and dungeon vile
our thoughts to them are winging,
when friends by shame are undefiled
how can I keep from singing?”

-The Traditional Shaker Hymn How Can I Keep From Singing, popularized by Enya

Notes from JWR:

Please continue keep all of the folks in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and surrounding states in your prayers! Please donate generously to your local church relief agency or to the American Red Cross. Charity is our Christian duty!

You can use the current Hurricane Katrina situation to emphasize to your relatives, friends, neighbors and co-workers just how fragile our society is. Do your best to convince them that it is prudent to stock up. I’d appreciate it if you could also tell them about SurvivalBlog.

Hurricane Katrina Update (SAs: Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Relief, Lessons from Katrina)

Things have gone from bad to worse on the Gulf Coast. Here are some tidbits that were phoned to me on Wednesday by a regular SurvivalBlog reader who is currently in close proximity to New Orleans. (He cannot currently send e-mail.):

1.) In New Orleans, looters are shooting at police stations, in one instance with a semi-auto AK-47. The looting is completely out of hand, and spreading.

2.) Jefferson Parish Louisiana Sheriff Harry Lee has issued a “shoot to kill” order.

3.) At the Super Dome (cum Relocation Center) there have been countless armed robberies, suicides, rapes, and three murders in the past 72 hours. Conditions are intolerable there (with no running water and no sanitation, so it has been ordered evacuated. Several thousand Super Dome evacuees are being bussed/trucked to the Houston Astro Dome. At least the electricity is working there…

4.) The level of the 13th Street has now essentially equalized with Lake Ponchartrain. Huge 7,000 pound sand bags are being lowered from Chinook helicopters into the levee breaches, but no success yet.

5.) New Orleans residents are caravanning in large numbers to Baton Rogue, and are now putting a tremendous stress on that city.

6.) A local radio reporter that was airlifted to safety from a badly flooded region reported that he saw “hundreds of bodies” floating the water when his helicopter was en route.

7.) Locals in have cleared the roads of fallen trees in many areas around New Orleans (using chainsaws), but no normal commerce has resumed.

7.) All of the local television stations are off the air.

Letter from B.D.B. in Baton Rouge

Well, I was lucky enough to be outside the edge of Katrina’s rampage here in Baton Rouge. I can attest that is was no picnic here and the devastation is widespread and intense.

Beginning on Sunday morning refugees came pouring into town fleeing New Orleans and by mid-day traffic westbound on I-10 was crawling. People were swarming the stores buying supplies and fuel. Gasoline disappeared very quickly but diesel fuel seemed readily available (no surprise there.) Many people were buying useless supplies though, things such as dairy products, meats, vegetables, and such. There was a distinct tension and sense of near panic in the shopping centers in this area. As the day progressed, the clouds started picking up and the wind began blowing, and refugees clogged the major roadways. Many of them had no plan of action; they were just driving west away from the storm but had no plans on where they would go or stay. Many of them had no clue that there were other roads besides the interstate or other major highways.

As of today, there are at least 100,000 refugees in shelters here in Baton Rouge, and probably that many staying with friends and family here in town. There are refugees in every other southern city within driving distance of the coast. Anywhere within say 300 miles of the affected area will have large numbers of refugees–some with with nothing but the clothes on their backs–and nothing to return home to. We have power and water here, but communications channels are choked. Fuel is in short supply but holding out. There is a definite tension in the air, and it’s going to happen soon…refugees will get frustrated and hungry to the point that they may riot or begin looting. There is widespread looting and lawlessness in affected areas of New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Looters are firing on the police, police officers trying to help them are getting hit, helicopters and planes are coming under small arms fire. Areas of New Orleans are now under martial law and I’m fully expecting that case to be expanded to other areas such as Gulfport and Biloxi. This disaster will directly impact not only our local economy, but the economy of the rest of the nation. Oil production is shut down not only offshore, but in the refineries as well; transportation systems are damaged; businesses are under water and their employees are out of a job for an unknown duration; the Ports of New Orleans, Gulfport, Biloxi, and Mobile are not functional; and the list goes on. If this isn’t a SHTF situation, I don’t know what is.

From John & Abigail Adams in Ohio

Here is a quick update on the gasoline and diesel fuel supply situation in Ohio. As I write this there are 15 oil refineries down in the US, either from storm damage or
lack of power. There are 3 pipelines down due to lack of power, limiting the flow of crude oil to the north. One refinery in Canton, Ohio, our main supplier of gasoline and diesel fuel in this area, has been closed since Monday, because there was no crude oil to refine.

Abigail and I work for a company that is a bulk supplier of gasoline and diesel fuel. Today (8/31) we are out of "On road" diesel fuel and have feet of "off road" diesel fuel in our tank. I have had several semi loads on order since Tuesday morning, but none have been delivered. We are rationing out the remaining product, as our supplier has no idea when he will be able to deliver us any product. I have contacted other suppliers and received the same answer

The industry “word” is that supply interruptions can be expected to last from one to six weeks. If this continues for more than a few days then stations will be running dry.

Our cost on 87-octane gasoline today is in excess of $3.00 per gallon. I do not want to raise a panic here; however I think your readers should be making whatever arrangements they can to get their tanks topped off.

This may not, and should not last very long, and I certainly hope not, but one thing is for certain…for now the fertilizer has struck the ventilation system.

As always if there are any questions feel free to send them our way. – John & Abigail Adams.

Letter From B.H. in Spokane

I’m a big fan–I have read your novel (Patriots) several times and consider it vital to every home library. I have extensive family in the south. I gave a copy of your book to my cousin T. in Pensacola. They have weathered the last two hurricanes and have come out on the financial up side-they specialize in commercial garage doors. They’ve made a killing after each storm. They have several generators and months of MRE’s for employees, family and neighbors. They used swimming pool water to flush toilets after Ivan.

I also have two cousins in central Mississippi. No word yet but they are both armed well and quite survival minded. One manages a Wal-Mart Supercenter-if it’s still there and stocked. I’ll get some intel on central Mississippi later today.

My father is in Birmingham and they are running out of diesel fuel. He is a long haul driver who has been summoned to Huntsville, Alabama because their power is down and a large food distribution center is out. They need him to get there ASAP so they can transfer frozen food to Nashville before it thaws and spoils. Power is out intermittently over most of Alabama and parts of North Georgia. Cell phones are also sporadic.

We have cousins in Louisiana who have evacuated to Kalifornia to be with family. One cousin is a school counselor-word is no school until after Thanksgiving, if they are lucky. One cousin returned home to Eastern Louisiana and the flood waters had receded but their Acura was gone-floated away. My great aunt’s small town is still under water-a total loss.

Just spoke to my cousin in Madison, Mississippi. Power is back on and phones are down. Cell phone on but some towers are down. Things getting back to normal pretty quickly- he called me from work. Most of the damage is downed trees and every ‘good ol boy’ with a chain saw got busy as soon as the storm passed. But the coast line is a completely different story. No access or economy for months.

As if you needed any more proof what you wrote in Patriots is correct, consider these snippets from Fox News:

New Orleans’ homeland security chief, Terry Ebbert, said looters were breaking into stores all over town and stealing guns.
He said there are gangs of armed men moving around the city. At one point, officers stranded on the roof of a hotel were
fired at by criminals on the street. The Times-Picayune newspaper reported that the gun section at a new Wal-Mart had been cleaned out by looters.
Authorities said an officer was shot in the head and a looter was wounded in a shootout. The officer was expected to
survive.

The Schumer has hit the fan in the South. – B.H. in Spokane

Letter Re: The Texas City, Texas Port Explosion in 1947

Hi,
I have read you blog for a couple of weeks now. Since shortly after you started it, I believe. In any case I do enjoy it. I noticed that you listed some Natural gas explosions from the past. There was a large explosion of another sort in 1947 in Texas City, Texas. It was caused by a fire on a ship filled with Ammonium Nitrate fertilizer. It killed almost 600 people and pretty much leveled the town. It is an interesting story and shows just how devastating even accidents can be, let alone deliberate acts!

Thanks for keeping us all on our toes. – T.P

Letter From G.G. In Mississippi

The Mississippi Militia just went to Defcon 2. I am from the devastated area in South Mississippi. I am E&Eing back there tomorrow to the house. I have been preaching and preaching about TSHTF scenarios and using your book as the guide.

The real story has not been told. Hancock County still has not been surveyed and bodies are in trees. This will surpass 9/11 in death toll. Pray and prepare. We will keep up the good fight. Pray for us! – G.G.

Letter From The Army Aviator Re: Polar Pure (Iodine Crystals) Water Purification Bottles

I checked and REI was cheapest @ $10.50 ea. Called my local REI and they had none, but they checked and found that they had 244 in their one and only distribution center. They quoted two weeks for delivery. I ordered my six. But assuming perhaps 2 in stock at each store [JWR adds: Unlikely, given recent events] that’s less than 500 available nationwide. That’s less than 1 for every 12 SurvivalBlog readers… I wonder which future ransacked city their distribution center is in? Hope it wasn’t New Orleans. Kind of unsettling how some things are really pretty scarce already.

Oh, I also have a Product Report: The MSR Chlorine Maker is GREAT as long as you have 6 VDC or a good supply of 3 volt lithium batteries. It came to mind while thinking of “Mr. Coffee” in Costa Rica. The MSR MIOX Water Purifier

Still the “old reliable” is what I have the most faith in, since I’ve used one since 1976 and that is: The Katadyn Pocket Filter with Output Hose
Regards, – The Army Aviator

Letter From “F1” Re: A Great Source for Survival and Self-Sufficiency Tools

Hi Jim and Memsahib:
Have you ever wished you could go back in time to a hardware store circa the late Forties, early Fifties? Imagine finding almost any style of kerosene or oil lamp including Aladdin (creates 60 watts of light using either kerosene or lamp oil) and the fuel for the lamps sold right in the store! Looking for hand powered tools? There are here! Crosscut saws? Yep, they got them. What about timber framing, logsmithing and wood carving tools? Look no further. Looking for self-sufficient dairy supplies? Come and get them! There are many garden tools to choose from too. Some tools you may never heard of before. Have you planned gas for mowing the lawn at the retreat? Forget it! Use one of those old fashion push mowers, except this one is brand new! Exercise and save fuel at the same time. When I was a kid, I liked to watch the grass fly as I mowed the lawn using one of these babies. Maybe yours will too. They have many other hand tools for lawn care available. Wouldn’t be nice to have highly efficient electric washing machines and refrigerators? There are here too. Imagine having an old fashion kitchen fully supplied just like great grandma’s. Everything you need to make it happen is here. Looking for wood heating stoves? There are several to choose from. Wondering what toys the children can play with when there is no electricity? Here are some old fashion ones that will bring back memories. Have you thought of a composting toilet? Read about the benefits and you might purchase one. There are about 14 types to choose from including a 1 pint flusher. Wondering which propane stove and or refrigerator to purchase? Check out what the Amish use for possibilities. If you are planning your retreat with antique flare, check out Heartland and Elmira kitchen appliances. They are awesome! There are books on every subject. Some are blacksmithing, canning, herbs used by the Amish, the secrets of starting a homestead or farm and the list goes on and on. If you are looking for something for self-sufficient living, chances are you will find it. No matter where you live it can be shipped right to your door. International orders are a specialty. There are so many items not listed many people plan a stop at the store while vacationing. This is a must check out Web site and store for all interested in self-sufficiency. I have made three trips and I am going back again! A scenic vacation can be planned by traveling the Old Lincoln Highway (US Route 250) to the store. It is in Kidron, Ohio. The store? Lehman’s -Products for Simple, Self-Sufficient Living – F1

JWR’s Reply: I have been doing business with Lehman’s for 20+ years. They have a sterling reputation. They are our kind of people. OBTW, they should be advertising here! (Hint, hint.)

Letter Re: SKS Rifle Advice and 7.62×39 Ballistics

Dear James:
I have read in your book and in the blog site that you do not recommend the .223 round for a battle rifle. What do you think about the effectiveness of the 7.62 X 39 cartridge? I own an SKS and would like your opinion on the 7.62 compared to the .223 and also the .308. Also what is your opinion of the SKS as a battle rifle? As always, I appreciate your valued input. – Dr. Sidney Zweibel, Columbia P&S

JWR’s Reply: Ballistically, the Soviet 7.62×39 (the standard cartridge for the SKS, AK-47, and clones) is almost identical to .30-30 Winchester. So it is better than .30 Carbine or .223, but not by very much. .308 Winchester is in whole ‘nother class, ballistically. I only recommend SKS rifles as an interim rifle for someone that is on a very tight budget. The biggest limitation of the standard SKS is its top-loaded 10 round (stripper clip filled) fixed magazine. If you opt for an SKS then you should take some extra time shopping around to find one of the thumbhole stock models that were imported in the late 1980s–these are the SKS variants that use standard detachable 30 round AK-47 magazines. These are scarce but can sometimes be found (used) for around $225 to $275.

If you can afford a .308–even just a $300 to $400 CETME, then you should forget about getting a SKS or other semi-auto chambered in 7.62×39! remember that .308 Winchester / 7.62 mm NATO is a flat shooting man killer with 500+ meter range. In comparison, 7.62×39 is a barely capable man stopper with a rainbow trajectory and an effective range of only about 250 meters. For anyone that can afford $600 to $2,000 for their MBR, see my previous blog posts about FALs and L1A1s. Those are my preferred tools for serious social work.

Letter Re: MotoMail for Deployed Service Members

Hello sir. My name is John [Surname deleted for OPSEC], and I’m an 0351 in the U.S. Marine Corps. I’m about to deploy with [unit designation deleted for OPSEC] to Ar Ramadi, and I wanted to open a line of communication before going. I read Patriots several years ago, and it truly changed my life. I only recently became aware of your blog, and having a lot of training [going on] and limited access to the Internet I was unable to contact you. However, I do wish to thank you. It introduced me to an entirely new mindset, and has helped shape my plans for the future.

I have a small favor to ask. If you feel it is unreasonable please don’t feel bad about refusing. There is a free service called MotoMail that allows emails sent to the troops to be printed in-country and delivered in a sealed, bank type envelope within 24-to-48 hours. I would be greatly obliged if you could send periodic updates of your blog to me in this fashion. I’ll have very limited computer usage time over there, and I intend to spend as much of this as humanly possible communicating with my wife. If you could send me your blog I wouldn’t be tempted to spend time looking at it. 🙂 The website for this is http://www.motomail.us/ Any letters over 1K words will merely arrive in multiple envelopes.

Thank you again, and I’ll be writing you from in-country. – John

Hurricane Katrina Update:

You’ve all read the news stories, so I’ll be brief: Things are very Schumeresque in New Orleans and Biloxi. The damage is much more severe than was experienced with Hurricane Camille back in 1969. Perhaps as many as one million people will become refugees. The Lake Pontchartrain levee breach (currently 200 feet wide) may mean that there will be 20+ feet of water in much of Nah-Lens. Hopefully the breach can be repaired before that happens. There won’t be a full death count for several weeks. One official said that the death toll will be “much higher than Camille” (which claimed 200 lives.)

As of Monday night, more than 37,000 people were in American Red Cross shelters, and that number is rising as people are plucked off their rooftops. Nearly 5 million people, in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida are without utility power, and power won’t be restored in some areas for more than a month. (Hmmm…. I guess its time to crank up those generators that people “wasted” their money on in anticipation of Y2K.)

Most of the oil refineries and LNG terminals on the Gulf Coast are offline, so some pundits are predicting gasoline prices to spike over $3.00 per gallon. For some detailed news stories, see World Net Daily

There is currently no effective law enforcement and hence beau coup looting, despite the fact that there is hip-deep water to wade through to get to most stores. Even a few police officers were seen engaged in looting. Officials are predicting a “worst case” situation vis-a-vis sanitation. Gee, this situation sounds like something out of one of those paranoid whacko survivalist novels.

Apparently many families were trapped in their attics and had to chop their way out to their roofs with axes. One clever gent didn’t have an axe but did have a shotgun, so he blasted his way out of his attic. (I award him bonus points for creativity.)

Again, I’d appreciate hearing some brief first hand accounts from SurvivalBlog readers that are in the affected area.

Please continue keep all of the folks in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and surrounding states in your prayers!