Letter Re: New FINCEN Regulation on Precious Metals/Gemstones Transaction Reporting

Jim,
It looks like our rulers are going to tighten the noose on reporting requirements for bullion purchases to chip away at anonymous buyers effective January 1, 2006. See:  http://www.fincen.gov/faq060305.pdf   FDR started the ball rolling in 1933. See: http://www.the-privateer.com/1933-gold-confiscation.html.

This FINCEN ruling may be the precursor to the next confiscation coming down the pike. Instead of “hoarding”, the new buzzword is now money-laundering prevention. As with guns, the strategy is to attach names and addresses to potentially confiscated goods to facilitate asset seizure and forfeiture.- Bill in North Idaho

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“There’s no way to rule innocent men. The only power government has is the power to crack down on criminals. When there aren’t enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws.” – Ayn Rand, from the novel Atlas Shrugged

Potential for Earth Strikes by Large Asteroids

The statistical chance of a large asteroid striking the Earth in any given year is very small–in fact almost statistically insignificant–since such events occur on average only once in more than 10,000 years. However, the consequences if such an event were to occur would be tremendous–perhaps even an “extinction level event.”  Recent advances in astronomy have led to the realization that a large number of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) that have true “Earth-crossing” orbits was far greater than was originally estimated.  See: http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/cfa/ps/mpc.html

The Tunguska, Siberia event in 1908 and the Curucá incident in Brazil in 1930 (in both of which it is suspected that a small asteroid vaporized before striking the Earth) are indicative that he asteroid threat is real. The1997 asteroid XF11’s near miss (see: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/ca_97xf11.html) should have served as a wake-up call, but politicians tend to be complacent about subtle threats unless they suddenly become non-subtle and a goodly number of registered voters get obliterated. 

Here is another interesting site to peruse: http://www.pibburns.com/catastro/impacts.htm

It is not reassuring to read that a number of  asteroid “near misses” (in terms of astronomical units)  were detected only after the asteroid had passed.

A recent article in England’s Guardian newspaper outlined the threat posed by the 390 meter wide Apophis asteroid, which could strike the Earth in 31 years. An asteroid that large could represent the risk of major climate change but not quite an extinction level event. (That would probably take an asteroid more than a kilometer in diameter.) In part, the article stated:  “NASA has estimated that an impact from Apophis, which has an outside chance of hitting the Earth in 2036, would release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. Thousands of square kilometers would be directly affected by the blast but the whole of the Earth would see the effects of the dust released into the atmosphere.” To read the entire article, see: http://www.guardian.co.uk/space/article/0%2C14493%2C1660485%2C00.html

EMP Threat to U.S. Presaged in a New Book

The World Tribune recently published some interesting excerpts from the new book, “War Footing: 10 Steps America Must Take to Prevail in the War for the Free World“, by Frank J. Gaffney and Colleagues, reprinted with permission from the publisher, Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, Maryland. OBTW, I had the privilege of meeting Frank Gaffney, back when I was on the editorial staff of Defense Electronics magazine. I was favorably impressed with both his acumen and his common sense. For the full text of the review, see:  http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/05/front2453711.9284722223.html

Letter Re: Caution on Masonry Construction in Earthquake Zones

Mr. Rawles:
You recently advised your preference for masonry, adobe, and rammed-earth retreat construction for the obvious ballistic protection and I agree. But here in northern Idaho and Montana we have recently experienced increased earthquake activity and you might caution your loyal readership to visit the excellent USGS website http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/states/idaho/hazards.html which provides detailed USA earthquake zone maps. Three million folks in Pakistan are now presently homeless because their bullet-proof houses crumbled after the earthquake. Before anyone builds their retreat they should also learn about California earthquake building codes and how to add inexpensive metal strapping to wood construction so their retreat does not also become their coffin in the event of an earthquake. Simpson Strongtie Corp’s website http://www.strongtie.com/products/strongwall/index.html?source=topnav is the industry standard for hardening construction. Regards, – “Book”

JWR Replies: In that impoverished part of the world they are famous for building masonry buildings with reinforcement, since re-bar is expensive–at least by Third World standards. But I definitely agree that regardless of how much re-bar you might add, a wood frame house is much more suitable than masonry in earthquake country.

Three Letters Re: Motorcycle Vulnerability to EMP?

With regard to motorcycles and EMP, modern Japanese and German bikes (I cannot speak for Harleys) have black boxes that are susceptible to EMP in the same way that car electronics are. Older bikes, of course, used points ignitions and should survive unscathed. A good rule of thumb to use would be that if a car of a particular year would survive, then a motorcycle of that same year probably would too. Might even be able to add a year or two, since bike development was always a little behind cars in the ’70’s. Depending on your primary anticipated needs, I would look for a mid-to-late 1970s Honda twin, like a CB500T. Slow but bulletproof. Lots of them made for many years. Some bikes from that era used 6 volt systems (the CB500T included). I know that the CB500F (four cylinder from that era) used a twelve volt system and is a much better street bike. The twin would be a better off-road bike since it is much lighter. Any off road use should involve different tires. Both Hondas had 19″ rims if I remember correctly. Not sure if modern dirt bike tires would fit. Most Japanese bikes from that era should work in a SHTF scenario, with lots of parts commonality between models of the same brand. The beauty is that you could probably pick up three or four of the same older model right now dirt cheap, and have a couple of entire bikes worth of spares. The Japanese would use the same motor in several different models, (like street bikes and Enduro bikes), and just change the gearing (internal and sprockets) for different uses. If I had to think of the things that seem to wear out on these bikes it is cables and bulbs. A spare rectifier and a couple of sets of points and you should be good to go. Another thing to consider is that while the fast bikes of the time (GS1000, KZ1000, XS1100, et cetera) are still great bikes for highway use, they are all close to 600 pounds, and would be quite a handful if used off-road. Hope this helps. – The Other M.W.

Jim:
James K is right to assume that a motorcycle can make a good back-up BOV. A dual-sport style motorcycle is fuel efficient, off-road capable and can split lanes in a sudden G.O.O.D. situation (being from CA, I assume that James is in a urban or suburban environment). Fortunately, these are also the simplest of modern road bikes. Although fuel injection is becoming more widespread, all new DP bikes are still carbureted (with fuel being fed by gravity). For simplicity’s sake, air-cooled is the best option here, since it is one less system to fail. Models like the Honda XR650 and Suzuki DR650 would both offer excellent performance and fuel economy. A bike equipped with a kick starter would be great, although I am not sure that a decompression solenoid would be affected by EMP. All modern bikes are vulnerable to EMP since they use digital/transistorized ignition systems. The good news is that these components are small and can be sealed in a homemade Faraday cage. [JWR adds: Such as a metal can or biscuit tin with a metal lid.] I am currently working on building a battery box that will be large enough to house the ignition circuitry along with the battery. Spare ignition wires, and another ignition module/voltage regulator would be wise precautions. – “Bossaboss”

Jim,
I see the question of EMP and motorcycles came up. Many of the newer bikes have computerized ignition systems. Some even have similar fuel injection. They are getting so hi-tech that they are in the same boat as the newer cars. The prospective buyer just has to do a bit of homework and find an older machine with [a traditional] points ignition. With most brands, it has been a while since any have used points ignition, but there are many bikes in garages with few miles on them that are hardly ridden. Unfortunately, they almost always need: new tires, new battery, and to have their carburetors cleaned and re-built. Then you are ready for the road. It pays to use gas stabilizer when storing, or shut off the fuel and run the carbs dry, thereby preventing varnish build-up in the carbs. It is also a handy place to keep a little emergency fuel handy for the generator or whatever while in storage for the winter. I always shut off the fuel and run the carbs dry as winter approaches, not knowing when the roads will be salted later in the fall. Now they have. I have had friends tell me I will dry out the seals in my carbs that way, but it has never happened yet, after many years of doing it this way. Thank you for keeping this going. – Sid, Near Niagara Falls

JWR’s Comment:  Once again, the SurvivalBlog readership has responded generously to a casual request for information. I am constantly amazed by the breadth and depth of knowledge that you folks have. Your collective knowledge is one of the most important factors that has led to the phenomenal success of SurvivalBlog. MANY Thanks!

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Thunder”, one of the senior members and moderators over at The Claire Files Gulching/Self-Sufficiency Forum just posted a couple of useful URLs on various designs for homemade backpacking stoves. See: http://wings.interfree.it/html/main.html and http://fallingwater.com/pct2000/gear/KissStove.asp.

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The last time I checked, the spot price of silver was at $8.99 per ounce and gold was at at $522.30 per ounce. Those of us in the contrarian “Gold Bug” minority camp are finally feeling vindicated. There will probably be a profit taking dip soon, so stand ready to throw some of your spare change at this charging bull.  OBTW, you can get live quotes on precious metals with our free ticker down at the bottom of the SurvivalBlog Investing page.

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I spotted an interesting background piece on Able Danger over on GovExec.com. See: http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/1205/120705nj1.htm

Note from JWR:

Please e-mail me your favorite quote and I’ll likely post it as a SurvivalBlog “Quote of the Day.”

Rourke on The Stealth Survival Retreat

In my continuing search for the most ideal way to construct a secure home or remote retreat with elements of survivability, stealth, off-grid living, and yet keep it within the bounds of conventional financing, I keep coming back to a version of the same idea; to build under your garage, especially if it is attached. In the Northern region where I am (Michigan), since one must dig down four feet for foundations to safely be below the frost line anyway, the additional cost of going another 4 or 5 feet isn’t very much. In fact, with the home I just completed, I figure my additional cost of building a retreat under my three car garage was about $25,000. This includes the Fort Knox vault door, plumbing, electric, HVAC run and return, treated floor, and hydronic heat I put down myself. With 780 square feet of living space, that’s about $32 per square foot for space that would have otherwise been filled in with dirt. Try to add on to your house for that cost. Besides the costs, though, it was something I could do even with subdivision building restrictions which would not have allowed me to build a bunker
The concept is simple and made easy by using reinforced poured concrete walls 10” thick, and by using Span-Crete® or any pre-stressed concrete product, which in my case covers a 30 foot open span ($10,500). Often, for not much more money, you can have them add more steel to take even more weight. I know someone who did this so he could drive in his 13,000 pound Bobcat into his garage with bunker under it. The two foot wide segments are quickly set in place by crane ($500), then they are covered with 2” of hard foam insulation, a 60 mil over-sized rubber roof membrane ($700), and then 4 inches of concrete is poured over that (which you were going to pour for your garage floor anyway, thus zero additional cost). I curled up the edges of the rubber membrane against the concrete walls of the garage (which come up about a foot then are wood). After the garage floor was done, I cut the excess member off about four inches up, then covered it with 2×6” treated wood, nailed to the wall and caulked it. The rest of the construction is conventional. There is a main doorway accessible from the basement through what looks like a closet. It goes down a few steps because it is slightly lower than the rest of the basement, and has a separate sump pit and pump out. There is a Fort Knox inward-opening vault door so that if the house collapses, the door will not be blocked by debris since it opens into the retreat space. I also recommend a mechanical lock, since electronic locks could be destroyed by EMP (how frustrating would that be). Some people talk about blast doors. IMHO, if a vault door is not enough, you had better move further away from ground zero. Six inch diameter PVC was used in various places before pouring the basement walls for HVAC forced air in and out, also with two separate air vents, intake and outtake, and two more to run electric service and hydronic heat hook ups through. Though my lot and situation did not allow it, a secondary entrance/exit is a very good idea. Mine is unfortunately a pick axe. To save on another vault door, you can use an old gun safe and torch open the back as a walk through. Spend the money to have a good contractor seal and insulate the exterior walls, such as one that offers a dry basement guarantee of at least 10 years ($800 more for me–the entire house was $2,600). For the basement floor, I used Rust-Oleum basement floor sealer. I also used the non-skid additive, and it produced a very nice finish ($150). Just be sure to ventilate when you do that or you will have a headache. Electrical is simple, just conduit to outlets all around on the painted concrete walls and ceiling, and regular ceramic light fixtures with efficiency bulbs. A great place to have put the generator would have been under the stoop of the front door, had I been a better planner. Mine is out in the open, but I am putting in a DC backup system that also runs to a solar panel on the roof. So what you finally get by doing this is the addition of highly secure space to an otherwise conventional home that most people would never expect to be there in a residential home, under where you park your vehicle. Since this was less than 20% of the cost of the house, and added a lot of “storage space” or could be a “home theater” room, the bank didn’t have a problem with it. On the plans, it just looked like more finished basement space. One more thing, I also ran plumbing into mine to allow for bathing. (A shower, not a tub). One of the first things that I’ve noticed about the bomb shelters and safe rooms that I have seen is the lack of a toilet. Even if you don’t want to do the expense of running plumbing, be aware there are many vented dry toilet or marine type (pump-out) alternatives. If you are going to spend that much, I say at least spend a little more an make it civilized.- Rourke

JWR Adds: For new construction, I recommend going to the expense of putting 10″ to 12″ of reinforced concrete overhead. That is sufficient to make your basement double as a fallout shelter. But that upgrade will of course make it obvious to the building contractors what you have intended. A ceiling of say eight inches thick probably wouldn’t arouse suspicion. Perhaps a “do it yourself” second pouring of concrete would work (IF the floor beneath is engineered to take that sort of dead load), for those of you that are Secret Squirrels.

I also recommend that you fully conceal the entrance to your shelter. There are a number of ways to make a doorways disappear. Anyone that is relatively skillful with hand tools can build a pivoting bookcase door. (Tres Batman, Tres Chic.) To make the doorway less apparent, first remove all of the molding and then lower the top of the doorway from the standard 78 inches to perhaps 60 inches–filling in with framed rectangle and sheet rock. (Of course you’ll have to be familiar with how to frame with 2x4s, cut sheet rock, tape, and texture to make this look right.) Then you can position a five foot tall bookcase in front of the the doorway. Yes, you will have to stoop each time that you pass through, but the entrance will be far less perceptible to all but the most keen observers. BTW, there are lots of similar ideas in the slim little tome titled: “The Construction of Secret Hiding Places” by Charles Robinson, (1981) published by Desert Publications.

Two inexpensive approaches to basement shelters that I’ve recommended to consulting clients are: A.) Making a full size basement appear to to be a “half basement” by the addition of a solid wall or false wall. (Either make a hidden door through the false wall, or a trap door to the walled-off room from a room upstairs) and B.) Making a basement disappear completely, by concealing its entrance (as described above) and by using some earth berming to hide any exterior evidence that the house ever had a basement.

Paul Tustain: The Crushing Debt Burden = Inflation Ahead = Higher Prices for Gold and Silver

In a recent economic analysis piece featured by our friends at Gold-Eagle.com, (http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/tustain120505.html), Paul Tustain outlines just how bad the national debt situations is, he compares our situation to Argentina a few years ago, and he predicts that Uncle Sam will inflate his way out of the jam. My extrapolation of Tustain’s remarks–and from what I’ve read from many other analysts: One likely end result will be a dollar crisis and gold at perhaps $2,000+ per ounce. Meanwhile, the expert “chartists” like Clive Maund (see: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund120505.html) tell us that in the recent run-up past $510 per ounce, gold has pushed so far above the 90 day moving average (90 DMA) so rapidly that it is substantially overbought. (See our free precious metals tickers at the SurvivalBlog Investing page.) The chartists predict a temporary retracement–perhaps bringing gold to as low as $480 per ounce before the bull resumes his charge. That dip might be a buying opportunity for those of you that presently feel like you’ve missed the boat. Maund says that any retracement in silver will be much smaller and shorter-lived. The silver bull, he says, will barely pause to catch its breath. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I predict substantially higher prices for gold and silver before the end of GWB‘s second term.

Letter Re: Bullion Dealer and Question on Recommended Inoculations

Jim:
I have been purchasing my silver from a store in Reno Nevada and have never had a problem with them.
http://www.silverstatecoin.com/

I read your blog everyday at lunch, I enjoy it immensely. I was wondering what your thoughts were on vaccinations.  Last month I was vaccinated for Flu, Pneumonia, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Tetanus and Diphtheria. I am 50 years old and had the usual vaccinations when I was a child, is there anything else that I should consider getting?  Have a Merry Christmas. – Jim from Illinois

JWR Replies:  I have very mixed feelings about inoculations. Currently, with the emerging threat of Asian Avian Flu, the only one inoculation that I strongly recommend getting is Pneumovax 23.  That one is reportedly good for 10+ years and protects against 23 different strains of pneumonia.  It will of course do nothing to stop the Asian Avian Flu itself, but it may prevent pneumonia co-infections.  (Respiratory co-infections are expected to be a big killer if and when Asian Avian Flu ever mutates ito a strain that is easily transmissible between humans.)

Letter Re: Hilltop Retreat Locations Versus Hidden Retreats

Sir:
[Your post on Tuesday December 6, 2005 was] good info on high versus low [retreat terrain selection.] Remember: distance = safety. The further away you are from the threat, the safer you will be from the threat. As a former Recon Marine, I learned first-hand that invisibility is far superior to visibility. Keep a very low profile. Exercise strict noise, light, and movement discipline, and you will have an edge on the competition. Semper Fi, – Old Sarge

More on “Harder Homes and Gardens”

To start, I’d recommend the “5-” series Army Engineer Corps manuals. You will find some great ideas there. There was also an anonymously penned small paperback book titled  “Defending Your Retreat” (1978) published by Delta Press. I assume that it is still in print. It includes good descriptions on placement of defensive
wire, (both concertina and tanglefoot) and one of the best discussions on the use of flares (trip flares and parachute flares) that I’ve seen in print anywhere. The second half of the book is a reprint from an Engineer Corps field manual. IMO, for a retreat house nothing beats living in a masonry, adobe, or  rammed earth house with a fireproof roof. (metal or tile.) Ideally, if there are any exposed beams, they should be swathed in sheet metal to make them less vulnerable to Molotov cocktails. (You can paint the metal to make it look decorative.) The specifications for bulletproof steel window shutters and upgraded doors are described in my novel Patriots.  The novel also mentions a handy formula for calculating the weight of plate steel.  This can be important when considering what sort of hinges are needed, as well as the hoists and or jacks required for handling something that heavy. (I’ve found that a rolling engine hoist works well. The trick is to move very slowly and carefully, with lots of planning and communication/agreement on exactly what is planned by everyone involved before making the smallest move. A moving 200 pound piece of plate steel can be very unforgiving when fingers of toes get in the way–especially if it falling. Remember: 32 feet per second, per second!)

A few years back, I helped a friend design a slip-form concrete house with a native rock facade. The roof is metal, but it is there mainly there for show, since the house also has a 6″ thick reinforced concrete roof, beneath. Since the house sits in a canyon, he only has to worry about one vehicular approach. There are abrupt four foot high terraces and “decorative” concrete planter boxes around the house that prevent vehicles from getting up close and personal. On a related note: A simple solution to the potential RPG/LAW rocket threat is also described in Patriots.