Odds ‘n Sods:

SurvivalBlog reader Norman in England mentioned this piece in The Times of London; Thousands to Test Flu Emergency Response. Norman’s comments: “If this thing does mutate and get world wide then it will be very difficult if not impossible for society to hold together as it is now. What will come from this exercise will be bulls**t. I’ll try to keep you posted but I expect most of it to be kept under wraps. The systems that hold our society together have very little fault tolerance and it will not take much to bring society down. Once we are on the conveyor belt of collapse there will be nothing to stop total collapse. We must think seriously of how any who survive this will live without our current systems which includes electric power. As I have stated before how are we going to replace those broken or worn out part of generators, motors, pumps etc. How are we going to be able to forge the metal for those parts? What about such things resistors, transistors, etc. We who call ourselves ‘survivalists’ must use what little time we have left to plan for this eventuality. Not just with stocks of food and equipment but by planning to revert to a standard of living where if we can not make an item ourselves, or at least within a small community, we will have to do without.”

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Fred the Valmet-meister wrote to tell us about this web site in England on collecting anti-tank rifles. Fred calls it “a really cool web site for reading on a winter’s day:”

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A web search yielded this interesting product web page: LINE-X – Blast-Proof, Anti-Terror Paint Saves Building in New Mexico Explosion Tests.





Note from JWR:

For the entire month of February, I’m having a special “support our troops” sale on copies of the new expanded 33 chapter edition my novel “Patriots”. If you place an order directly with me, and you have us mail it to an APO or FPO address, then the price is just $12 per copy, plus $3 postage. (That is $10.99 off of the cover price–right near my wholesale cost.)

OBTW, speaking of supporting our troops, be sure to visit the AnySoldier.com web site, and “do your bit.” Some young enlisted troops that are deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan get no mail from home, so anything that you can send them–even just a postcard–is appreciated.

I now offer a couple of additional payment options for book orders: both AlertPay and GearPay. (I prefer these because they don’t share PayPal’s anti-gun political agenda.) In my experience, AlertPay has a frustratingly labyrinthine account set-up procedure, but GearPay seems much quicker and easier to set up.
Our AlertPay address is: rawles@usa.net
Our GearPay address is: rawles@usa.net
Our PayPal address is: rawles@earthlink.net



Home Security–The “Lock Bumping” Threat

There is currently a lot of buzz on the Internet about the emerging threat of “lock bumping.” This is an old technique used by burglars that can defeat up to 80% of typical household dead-bolt locks. It is catching on with a whole new generation of burglars in the U.S., Canada, and in Europe. (Using an easily obtained specially cut generic “bump” key and a small mallet.) This video clip from Holland (with English subtitles) shows the technique. And here is another video, from here in the States. My advice is to upgrade the locks on your exterior doors with top quality locks made by Medeco or Schlage Primus. These have special cylinders that are engaged by “double cut” or “side-milled” keys. These bump-resistant and pick-resistant locksets cost about $150 each.

Regardless of the locks that you use, it is essential that you never let your keys out of your personal possession, since a large number of burglaries are accomplished by means of illicitly copied keys. Never give a parking valet your entire ring of keys. Never lend your house key to a tradesman. (You should always be there personally to supervise work in your home, regardless.) If you hire a maid, a cleaning service, or a nanny that must have a house key, then do a thorough background check on that individual. And if you have the slightest suspicion that your key might have been compromised, then have your door locks re-keyed immediately. OBTW, the bump technique can also defeat most padlocks. But fear not–ultra high security padlocks with double cut keys are also available. (For example, the $180+ Sargent & Greenleaf #833 or the not quite so expensive Medeco “C” and “E” series padlocks.) I should also mention that the real bargain on the market is the U.S. Army surplus arms room padlock (made by Sargent & Greenleaf), often available via eBay, from Coleman’s Surplus, that typically sell for around $60.



Letter Re: More Evidence of Peak Oil Decline–Preparing for Much Higher Gasoline Prices

Dear Jim and Family,
Bad news from the largest oil field in Mexico. The Canterell field, formerly reported to decline at 2% last August, 6% in October, and 11% in December has been rated at 25% today. Oil production has dropped from 1.99 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.

This is a very bad thing. Most of that oil goes to the USA via NAFTA treaties. There are no fields to replace it, and since Mexico has 51% leftist leanings, no oil company will risk investing there (Pemex was formed from seized foreign oil investments, most of which were from the USA). Losing half a million barrels of non-Middle Eastern supply makes us more susceptible to interruptions from hostile nations like Iran and Venezuela, and unstable nations like Nigeria.

This also has secondary effects. Most of the money in Mexico comes from oil wealth. Without the oil, Mexico, the nation with one of the highest birth rates in the world, will be needing to find other sources of income for their 1 million young men turning 18 each year. Without the oil wealth to pay for social services, the collapse there will either cause them to come to the USA seeking jobs (just as the USA is entering a recession due to energy costs and the collapse of the housing bubble), or further fuel revolution in Mexico. Mexico is already unstable since the race for president and ruling party was hotly contended and claims of voting fraud rang very loudly, particularly in the South where leftists openly battle with the Federales.

Let’s assume that any internal issues in Mexico stay there, and that conditions in the USA don’t cause a higher number of illegal immigrant labor. Even without that, losing 1/2 million barrels per day in 6 months, and possibly another half million by July of this year is going to hurt the USA quite a bit. That’s an Iraq worth of oil. If things get more messed up in Mexico, the oil may stop flowing temporarily, thus removing 1.5 million barrels per day from the market and driving the price up until demand for those barrels is removed. This generally means the third world is bid off the market. It also means that you may see $6/gal gasoline, maybe later this year. Who knows? It’s too uncertain to invest in crude oil futures.

The thing about predicting gasoline prices is we know the price will rise, but we don’t know when, or if $6 will be just a few days before it races past that number for a higher price. Supply and demand rule, and if you paid the same price per volume for gasoline that you do for beer, you’d be looking at around $32/gal. And beer won’t push you two dozen miles surrounded by 3,000 pounds of steel, rubber, and plastic. Gasoline is more useful, so will inevitably cost a lot more, eventually to cost what its actually worth for the work it can do. This will leave a lot of cars empty of fuel, sitting in your driveway rusting forlornly with only 30 more payments. My advice is to start offloading your excess vehicles sooner rather than later, and if it comes to a choice of going into debt for a hybrid and someday tossing the guzzler for scrap metal: the math says the guzzler is a better deal. The price of fuel will rise faster than the hybrids can accommodate and debt for a vehicle will make less and less sense when unemployment follows energy scarcity and transportation problems. If you must maintain your personal travel freedom, there’s always motorcycles, which get 60 mpg. If you insist on your car and can live with the loss of freedom, you can carpool which effectively doubles or quadruples your fuel efficiency (if you carry three passengers). It’s not very macho and it’s painful to your freedom, but it’s better to have a job than not. And some mobility is better than none. We’re all going to have to get used to much more limited mobility in the next few years.

And I shudder in anticipation of “travel papers” and other documents limiting travel in the name of fuel efficiency, homeland security, or whatever other excuse they choose. Sincerely, – InyoKern
.

JWR Replies: Reading through the SurvivalBlog Retreat Owner Profiles, you will notice that nearly every one of them has a “economy runabout” car listed. I think that is a wise approach. Also, don’t overlook mountain bicycles with panniers and/or light cargo trailers, the new generation utility trike-bikes with cargo platforms and/or cargo trailers, and of course horses. These alternatives may not be speedy or convenient, but they require no gasoline.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Unintended consequences: Rise in ethanol demand creates a tortilla crisis.

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S.H. mention an interesting list of 63 field/barracks items posted at Bouhammer’s Afghanistan “List of gear for A-stan.” S.H. notes: “This may be of interest to those reviewing their G.O.O.D. or Bug-Out bags. It is very enlightening on what our troops use/need in a modern desert war environment.”

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There are just 16 days left in the big “Container load sale” at Survival Enterprises. Looking at their running inventories posted on the web page, I can see that several items have sold out. Don’t dawdle on this one, folks! All of the storage food items are “first come – first served.” As previously mentioned, their prices are less than half of retail.



Jim’s Quote of the Day

“You can kid yourself and say I’m only going along because they have all the guns, but day by day, year by year, your integrity erodes. Finally, you become like the tyrants: just one more liar.” – Franklin Sanders



Note from JWR:

I’m planning on assembling a “Best of the Blog” hardcopy book in the next few weeks. The prospect of doing this manually is not appealing. Do any of you folks know of an existing “slurp” or “blog to book” software tool that is compatible with Movable Type that will allow me to automagically build RTF or MS-Word files from my blog posts? (My searches thusfar have been unsuccessful.) Thanks!



Letter Re: Urban Freeway Traffic Gridlock in a Disaster

Jim-
Reading your excerpt from “Patriots” (I do have my own copy of the prior edition) reminded me of an episode in and around Seattle a few winters ago. Just before the afternoon commute, a rainstorm passed through and with the cold weather, created a black ice condition on the Interstate-5 freeway. Several fender benders clogged up the freeway in both directions and it took some time for tow trucks to make their way through the tie-up. Eventually they had to give up because people, sitting in their cars with heaters, wipers and radios on and engines idling, didn’t realize the alternator output at idle wasn’t sufficient to keep up with the power drain.
The upshot was that in very short order, the freeway was clogged with stalled, dead cars abandoned by their passengers. It took days to clear out the mess.
Imagine if no one came to clear them out. So, among other episodes in “Patriots“, the one you presented on Monday resonates with me! – Bob B.



Letter Re: Veterinary Antibiotics

Jim:
All this talk on Tetracyclines and their dangers. Show me the research! I have only been able to find one case study of one person who became nephrotoxic on TTC’s/Doxy. Speculation is interesting, but research is really important in this circumstance. Thanks, – Russ

JWR Replies: This issue is clearly one that is still not fully settled in medical circles. Part of the problem seems to be that there are so many causes of renal failure, and a precise cause is sometimes difficult to pinpoint. There seems to be different “camps” of opinion regarding tetracycline (and similar antibiotics in the “-mycin” and “-cycline” families) and nephrotoxicity. (Called Fanconi’s syndrome, often coincident with “acute fatty liver”.) For example, I found the following in a web page on Akamin (Minocycline): “Tetracyclines may aggravate pre-existing renal failure. Nephrotoxicity has also occurred in association with “acute fatty liver” related to the use of tetracycline in high doses. Degraded tetracycline may result in renal tubular damage and a “Fanconi-like” syndrome.” (Emphasis added.)

Wardoc provided a link to a fairly concise article on Fanconi’s syndrome that specifically talks about antibiotics that are past their expirys. The article includes this: “Environmental assaults that cause Fanconi’s syndrome include exposure to heavy metals (like cadmium, lead, mercury, platinum, uranium), certain drugs (like outdated tetracycline and gentamicin), other substances (like Lysol, paraquat, toluene, the amino acid lysine taken as a nutritional supplement), and kidney transplantation.” (Emphasis added.) I also found this in a web page on Doxitab–a brand of Doxycycline: “The use of out-of-date or deteriorated tetracyclines has been associated with the development of a reversible Fanconi-type syndrome characterised by polyuria and polydipsia with nausea, glycosuria, aminoaciduria, hypophosphataemia, hypokalaemia, and hyperuricaemia with acidosis, and proteinuria.” (Emphasis added.)

Speaking as a layman that is seeing two schools of thought–or perhaps views on two distinct diagnoses–within the medical community on this issue, to be absolutely safe, I recommend that you avoid both over-dosing and out-of-date or otherwise deteriorated antibiotics. (For example, beyond their expiration dates or that are heat-degraded or photo-degraded.) As a prepper that anticipates the possibility of infrastructure breakdown and widespread power failures, the last thing that I want is to see anyone become dependent on scheduled kidney dialysis because they “saved some money” on antibiotics!



Odds ‘n Sods:

Michael Z. Williamson sent us a link to an article on how “gun control” laws are working in the UK. The following is a quote from the article: “A widow who lives alone in a Wiltshire farmhouse has taken to sleeping with a Smith & Wesson Saturday Night Special under her pillow. It belonged to her husband and is more than capable of stopping an intruder, of which she has had three in the last two years.
When she goes shopping in Swindon, she slips a can of Mace into her handbag in case of assault. “Bought it at the ironmongers in Bergerac,” she says. “Much more effective than an ASBO.”
A senior civil servant, now retired and living in a remote house near Losthwithiel in Cornwall, believes in the efficacy of a small-calibre .22 pistol. It was easy to buy without a licence or proof of identity in rural France, where they are used to kill vermin. The .22 is also an assassin’s weapon – once the round has entered the cranium, it will ricochet about as it looks for an exit.”
(Mike calls “bull” on that last part)

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Frequent content contributor Hawaiian K. sent us this one: Vehicle that runs on road and rail has trial trip in Shizuoka

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John The Bowhunter sent us a link to a newspaper story from California: Home Losses Loom.This hardly comes as a surprise to us. This is the “ARM-twisting” that I predicted, many months ago.



Jim’s Quote of the Day

“‘It has never happened!’ cannot be construed to mean, ‘It can never happen!’– might as well say, ‘Because I have never broken my leg, my leg is unbreakable,’ or ‘Because I’ve never died, I am immortal.’ One thinks first of some great plague of insects – locusts or grasshoppers – when the species suddenly increases out of all proportion, and then just as dramatically sinks to a tiny fraction of what it has recently been. The higher animals also fluctuate.

During most of the nineteenth century the African buffalo was a common creature on the veldt. It was a powerful beast with few natural enemies, and if its census could have been taken by decades, it would have proved to be increasing steadily. Then toward the century’s end it reached its climax, and was suddenly struck by a plaque of rinderpest. Afterwards the buffalo was almost a curiosity, extinct in many parts of its range. In the last fifty years it has again slowly built up its numbers.

As for man, there is little reason to think that he can, in the long run, escape the fate of other creatures, and if there is a biological law of flux and reflux, his situation is now a highly perilous one. During ten thousand years his numbers have been on the upgrade in spite of wars, pestilence, and famines. This increase in population has become more and more rapid. Biologically, man has for too long a time been rolling an uninterrupted run of sevens.” – George R. Stewart, Earth Abides



Note from JWR:

Living here in the hinterboonies, our daytime radio reception is pitiful, but our nighttime reception is fantastic. (The Rawles Ranch is in an isolated “electromagnetic quiet zone.”) To make up for the lack of daytime reception (since we get less than a half dozen daytime AM stations and no FM stations), I have turned to Internet radio for entertainment during the day, and shortwave radio listening at night. I am particularly fond of a listener-sponsored Internet streaming audio service called Folk Alley. Great stuff, albeit with a perceptible liberal slant. At least they don’t shy away from playing gospel bluegrass music in their mix.



Book Excerpt: “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”

In response to a request to Matthew from Indiana, who wanted to know what my novel was like before ordering it, the following is an excerpt from the first chapter of the expanded (33 chapter) edition of my novel “Patriots”:

On the last day of October, the Grays found that their phone was still working, but only for local calls. When they tried making long-distance calls, they got an “All circuits are busy now” recording, at all hours of the day or night. The next day, there was message advising that “All circuits will be restored shortly.” Two days later, there was no dial tone.

By early November, there was almost continuous rioting and looting in every major city in the U.S. Due to the financial panic and rioting, the November election was “postponed” to January, but it never took place. Rioting grew so commonplace that riot locations were read off in a list—much like traffic reports—by news broadcasters. The police could not even begin to handle the
situation. The National Guard was called out in most States, but less than half of the Guardsmen reported for duty. With law and order breaking down, most of them were too busy protecting their own families to respond to the call-up. An emergency call up of the Army Reserve three days later had an even smaller response. All over America, entire inner-city areas burned to the ground, block
after block. No one and nothing could stop it. On the few occasions that the National Guard was able to respond to the riots, there were some massacres that made Kent State seem insignificant.

Many factories in proximity to the riots closed “temporarily” in concern for the safety of their workers, but never reopened. Most others carried on with their normal operation for several more days, only to be idled due to lack of transport. Shipping goods in the United States in most cases meant one thing: 18 wheel diesel trucks traveling on the interstate highway system. The trucks stopped rolling for several reasons. First was a fuel shortage. Then came the flood of refugees from the cities that jammed the highways. Then people that ran out of gas disrupted traffic. As cars ran out of gas, they blocked many critical junctions, bridges and overpasses. Some highway corridors in urban areas turned into gridlocked parking lots. Traffic came to a stop, motionless cars began to run out of gas, and the forward movement of traffic was never resumed. In some places, cars were able to back up and turn around. In most others, people were not so lucky. There, the traffic was so densely packed that drivers were forced to just get out of their cars and walk away.

Every major city in the United States was soon gripped in a continual orgy of robbery, murder, looting, rape, and arson. Older inner city areas were among the hardest hit. Unfortunately, the design of the interstate freeway system put most freeways in close proximity to inner city areas. The men who had planned the interstate highway system in the 1940s and 1950s could not be blamed. At that time,
downtown areas were still flourishing. They were the heart of industry, population, commerce, and wealth. Thus, it was only logical that the highways should be routed as close to them as possible, and preferably through them. These planners could not then have predicted that in 50 years the term “inner city” would become synonymous with poverty, squalor, welfare, drugs, disease, and rampant crime.
America’s once proud and efficient railroad system, long the victim of government ineptitude, was unable to make any appreciable difference in the transportation crisis. Most of the factories that had been built in the past 30 years had been positioned near highways, not railroad tracks. Also, like the highways, most rail lines passed through urbanized areas, placing trains at the same risk as trucks. Gangs of looters found that it did not take large obstructions to cause train derailments. Within a few hours of each derailment they stripped the trains of anything of value.

A few factories managed to stay in operation until early November. Most had already closed, however, due to failing markets, failing transportation, failing communications, or the failing dollar. In some instances, workers were paid through barter, rather than cash. They were paid with the company’s product. Chevron Oil paid its workers in gasoline. Winchester-Olin paid its workers in ammunition.
The last straw was the power grid. When the current stopped flowing, the few factories and businesses still in operation closed their doors. Virtually every industry in America was dependent on electric power. The power outages forced even the oil refineries to shut down. Up until then, the refineries had been operating around the clock trying to meet the increased demand for liquid fuels.
Ironically, even though refineries processed fuel containing billions of BTUs of energy, most of them did not have the ability to produce enough electric power to supply all of their own needs. Like so many other industries, oil refiners had made the mistaken assumption that they could always depend on the grid. They needed a stable supply of electricity from the power for their computers and operate the solenoids for their valves.

The power outages caused a few dramatic effects. At a Kaiser Aluminum plant near Spokane, Washington, the power went out during the middle of a production shift. With the plant’s electric heating elements inactive, the molten aluminum running through the hot process end of the plant began to cool. Workers scrambled to clear as much of the system as possible, but the metal hardened in many places, effectively ruining the factory. If the plant were ever to be re-opened, the hardened aluminum would have to be removed with cutting torches or jackhammers. Electricity also proved to be the undoing of prisons all over America. For a while, officials maintained order in the prisons. Then the fuel for the backup generators ran out. Prison officials had never anticipated a power outage
that would last more than two weeks. Without power, security cameras did not function, lights did not operate, and electrically operated doors jammed. As the power went out, prison riots soon followed.
Prison officials hastened to secure their institutions. Under “lock down” conditions, most inmates were confined to their cells, with only a few let out to cook and deliver meals in the cell blocks. At many prisons the guard forces could not gain control of the prison population, and there were mass escapes. At several others, guards realized that the overall situation was not going to improve, and
they took the initiative to do something about it. They walked from cell to cell, shooting convicts. Scores of other prisoners died at the hands of fellow convicts. Many more died in their cells due to other causes; mainly dehydration, starvation, and smoke inhalation.

Despite the best efforts of prison officials, 80 percent of the country’s more than 1,500,000 state and federal prisoners escaped. A small fraction of the escaped prisoners were shot on sight by civilians. Those that survived quickly shed their prison garb and found their way into the vicious wolf packs that soon roamed the countryside…



Letter Re: The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty

Sir:
Seeing the discussion regarding the gentleman who loaned a flashlight and leaf blower to his ungrateful neighbors, I’d thought I’d share my method of loaning out items. First off, never loan out primary tools. I have three sets [that I’ve designated – mine [primary], for friends, and a lower quality set for loaning. If you’ve never borrowed from me before and I don’t know your “borrowing character”, then you get the cheap set of greasy, grimy tools or the flashlight with weak batteries. If you return them in the state that you borrowed them, you get to borrow them again sometime. If the tools come back cleaned and oiled and new batteries in the flashlight, your “borrowing character” had been elevated to trusted borrower and you may soon be ready for the set of tools reserved for friends. (Hint: When you borrow tools, always bring them back in a better state than when you took them.) If you do not return them, you will be reminded over and over of this fact and hopefully you will shamefully remember to return them. If you don’t ever gain some character or have no shame, then stay outta my yard!
Also, people forget a couple of simple words: please and thank you. I don’t have to loan you my tools. If you ask nicely, I may just think a bit more nicely of you. These words don’t cost anything to use yet they reap huge benefits if used sincerely. – Matt B.