"The world breaks everyone and afterward many are strong in the broken places. But those that will not break it kills. It kills the very good and the very gentle and the very brave impartially. If you are none of these you can be sure it will kill you too but there will be no special hurry." – Ernest Hemingway, A Farewell to Arms
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Note from JWR:
The high bid is now at $180 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a batch of 10 brand new original Imperial Defence SA-80 (AR-15) steel 30 round rifle magazines. The auction ends on July 15th.
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The Bear Stearns Bears–The Near Collapse of Two Real Estate Hedge Funds Sends Economic Shock Waves Around the World
Last week’s big economic news was that two Bear Stearns hedge funds worth $20 billion are teetering near collapse. These two Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) funds–ironically named the “Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund” and the “High Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund”–are in trouble because of their heavy exposure to sub-prime mortgages. A well-publicized rescue plan involving Merrill Lynch fell apart. At one point Merrill Lynch–one of Bear’s credit backers–said that they planned to seize about $850 million worth of collateral assets from Bear Stearns and sell them on the open market. Reuters reported Bear Stearns injected $1.5 billion of cash into the troubled CDO funds. Meanwhile we read that the head of the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and about 250 other international banking executives planned to meet at a “Financial Stability Forum” on June 23 & 24 at BIS headquarters in Bale, Switzerland. Much of their conversation will surely center on the derivatives traders, especially the Bear Stearns hedge funds. The results of the BIS meeting? Uncertain. The bottom line: Be ready. Minimize your exposure to market fluctuations. Diversify into precious metals. Minimize you exposure to U.S. dollars. Any U.S. dollar-denominated investment should be specially selected to be resistant to inflation. For example, see the next blog entry about Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS.)
I’ve been warning SurvivalBlog readers about derivatives trading in general, and hedge funds in particular, for more than a year. Ditto for the US residential real estate, especially on the coasts. The hedge fund crisis will likely widen. Collateralized Debt Obligations will plummet as their underlying assets lose value. The macroeconomic consequences of this nascent collapse are enormous. The ride may get very bumpy. Fasten your seat belts, folks.
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Two Letters Re: U.S. Treasury Bonds
James Wesley:
I recently inherited several U.S. Savings Bonds, Series EE. Do you recommend that I keep them, or cash them in so I can get better prepared? (We only have about two months of storage food here at our house.) How do I find out if the bonds are still earning interest, and what they are currently worth? Thank you, – C.C.
JWR Replies: You are right about recognizing priorities. You can’t eat bonds. If the bonds have fully matured, then by all means cash them in. You can check of the status of most bonds at the Treasury Direct web site.
Mr. Rawles,
You once mentioned Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Do you still recommend them? Assuming they are still a good investment, which brokerage house should I use to minimize the fees? – Robert L. in Michigan
JWR Replies: Since further inflation of the U.S. dollar is inevitable, and significantly higher levels of inflation are likely n coming years, I still consider TIPS a great investment for any extra cash that you have on hand. That is, after getting your food storage squared away, after investing 25% of your portfolio in precious metals, and after investing as much as 50% in a productive retreat property. (By that iI mean farm or ranching land in a lightly populated area that is well removed from major population centers and away from likely refugee lines of drift.)
It is probably best to buy TIPS directly from the U.S. Treasury.
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Letter Re: Record Keeping for TEOTWAWKI
Mr. Rawles,
Many have written on this topic and many more have mused on it. Some have even written on what I thought about, but revisiting topics and ideas allows for fresh perspective and ideas to surface and breath.
1. How Many People? – Does it take a Village?: ‘Billary’ references aside, what is the ideal size for a group of people after the Schumer hits? So many people really buy into the image of the rugged, self
sufficient individual. However, if we isolate ourselves, does not that make us easier targets in the long run? Small numbers of people can only do so much.
There are very few true ‘renaissance’ men today. A larger group of people creates a better pool of skill and skill potential to draw from. Also, security concerns can be less burdensome with a larger work
force to draw from. How many people have dental skill, especially in less than desirable conditions? Midwife skills? Children will be born, especially if the scenario goes on from more than one year. Trying to help a mother give birth while reading how to do it for the first time may not be a good thing. How many skills and how much practical knowledge do you really possess for yourself? How about members of your extended family? My maternal grandfather is a retired farmer and I remember watching him improvise and fix just about anything that he had in order to make it work, while at the same time costing him little to nothing.
Granted with larger groups of people come greater issues and problems. Sanitation, food storage and supply, clothing (especially shoes) and list goes on and on. Studying history can give us a sense of just
what size of population you need to survive, although every situation and our reaction to it will be different.
2. Records and Record-Keeping: One of the very unfortunate side effects of any conflict throughout human history has been the loss of knowledge – both in human experience and in the archived form. Since the trend is away from actual hardcopy volumes and to the electronic form, the risk to loss of knowledge is greater in a post-EMP world. Granted, today the sheer volume of printed material is greater than in the past, however, that paper will still burn just as easy as it has in the past.
So, what kind of records should we keep and in what form. At some point in the future the availability of some sort of records could be of immense value. Journals, diaries, birth records, death records, and
wedding records, especially in a multi-generational situation, can help establish a semblance of ‘proper’ civilization.
Oral history and traditions served many cultures well for countless generations. However, one must remember that especially in oral history, the memorization cannot be a trivial task. It is vital that the
training be just as seriously undertaken as any survival training. Both native American tribes and the Druids trained for years for such an undertaking as this.
Especially in the dreaded multi-generational scenarios, what kind of stories will be passed down from parents/grandparents to children/grandchildren, some 50, 100, 200, 500, or even 1,000 years later? Stories could be told of the magical metal stick “Evie” that could strike a man down over 1,000 paces away. It does fire the imagination. – Clayton S.
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Odds ‘n Sods:
The UN does it again: Remember when the UN appointed Libya to head their Human Rights Commission? That was ironic. The latest outrage is that the UN has just appointed Zimbabwe to head the UN Commission on Sustainable Development. Is this some kind of cruel joke? The economic masterminds of Zimbabwe have absolutely wrecked the nation’s once-thriving economy. Basic commodities are chronically in short supply. Commerce and agriculture are in shambles, verging on total collapse. They have turned a major food exporter–once “the breadbasket of Africa””–into a food importer, with hundreds of thousands of their citizens malnourished, and thousands now starving to death. Meanwhile, the grid power is now off more often than it is on. They have sown the seeds of hyperinflation–expected to soon exceed 24,000% per annum. I wouldn’t trust them to run a neighborhood lemonade stand, much less chair the commission that ostensibly guides the world on key economic and agricultural issues. Leave it to the UN to make this sort of whacko appointment.
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From Steve Quayle’s web site: Milk, Eggs and Bread: Is Preparation a Lack of Faith?
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“The Werewolf” (our correspondent in Brazil) recommended these two books on survival cookery: Apocalypse Chow: How to Eat Well When the Power Goes Out, and The Storm Gourmet: A Guide to Creating Extraordinary Meals Without Electricity
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Jim’s Quote of the Day:
“What are the marks of a sick culture?
It is a bad sign when the people of a country stop identifying themselves with the country and start identifying with a group. A racial group. Or a religion. Or a language. Anything, as long as it isn’t the whole population.
A very bad sign. Particularism. It was once considered a Spanish vice but any country can fall sick with it. Dominance of males over females seems to be one of the symptoms.
Before a revolution can take place, the population must lose faith in both the police and the courts.
High taxation is important and so is inflation of the currency and the ratio of the productive to those on the public payroll. But that’s old hat; everybody knows that a country is on the skids when its income and outgo get out of balance and stay that way – even though there are always endless attempts to wish it way by legislation. But I started looking for little signs and what some call silly-season symptoms.
I want to mention one of the obvious symptoms: Violence. Muggings. Sniping. Arson. Bombing. Terrorism of any sort. Riots of course – but I suspect that little incidents of violence, pecking way at people day after day, damage a culture even more than riots that flare up and then die down. Oh, conscription and slavery and arbitrary compulsion of all sorts and imprisonment without bail and without speedy trial – but those things are obvious; all the histories list them.
I think you have missed the most alarming symptom of all. This one I shall tell you. But go back and search for it. Examine it. Sick cultures show a complex of symptoms as you have named… But a dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than a riot.
This symptom is especially serious in that an individual displaying it never thinks of it as a sign of ill health but as proof of his/her strength. Look for it. Study it. It is too late to save this culture – this worldwide culture, not just the freak show here in California. Therefore we must now prepare the monasteries for the coming Dark Age. Electronic records are too fragile; we must again have books, of stable inks and resistant paper.” – Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Note from JWR:
I’ve once again updated and expanded the SurvivalBlog Glossary. There are now more than 1,500 entries.
If you find what you read in SurvivalBlog useful, then please consider becoming a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber. Subscriptions are entirely voluntary. All those little $3 monthly payments do add up–enough that they help pay the bills here. Thanks!
Letter Re: Bicycles for Emergency Transportation
Mr. Rawles,
Being a Vietnam era vet, I’m well aware of the efficacy of bicycles as transportation and “mules,” as Grandpappy describes in his article. Viet Cong forces used convoys of bicycles to transport war materiel south from North Vietnam along the Ho Chi Minh trail. U.S. forces would bomb the trail during the day in the hopes of obstructing truck traffic moving south. At night the Viet Cong would use bicycles to move supplies in lieu of trucks. One should never underestimate pedal-power. Regards, – Jeff P.
Letter Re: Convincing the Unconvinced that TEOTWAWKI is Possible
James Rawles;
I enjoy your blog and wish I had more time to review [all of the content]. I plan on getting the best of the blog when my funds permit.
I saw the “Convincing the Unconvinced” post and thought I would reply.
I like what another reader recommended on bringing people around to preparing and hope you have a section dedicated to this subject somewhere on your blog.
Pushing a lot of information too fast will be counterproductive. They need to learn and decide for themselves to be prepared, and how prepared [they want] to be.
MJS could try getting Government-issued preparedness brochures. They are available from the American Red Cross and The Department of Homeland Security. This literature shows the need to be prepared for various situations. The information coming from a source that the doubtful will consider “mainstream” may be what they need to convince them to be prepared. You can work from there to discuss with them all the types of potential disasters (man made and natural) that can occur in your area and what can be done to be prepared.
Preparedness gifts are also a way to get the doubtful thinking about preparedness. I have given first aid kits, power inverters, Flashlights, Baygen radios, vehicle 72 hour kits, Preparedness books–some published by the Red Cross and Homeland Security–as Christmas gifts to plant the seeds of preparedness thinking. With the bird flu threat looming, I am considering a long term food supply for a month or less and publications on what you should know about bird flu for this Christmas. I am looking at water purification equipment for the following Christmas.
At least this gives family members a chance to survive a short term event. I know I cannot prepare for them and they have not considered what to do if the big cities that they live in melt down. But I can give them the information to make them think and to help them if they ask for it. – Ron from Ohio
Two Letters Re: Advice on Buying Registered Firearms Suppressors in the U.S.
Jim,
Your reader OSOM wrote in with a question relating to whether or not owning a suppressor would be a good idea.
My comments are as follows:
– Legally, the National Firearms Act (NFA) [of 1934] regulates “silencers”. A rose by any other name is still a rose — owners of such articles commonly call them “suppressors” to avoid the Hollywood association with assassins and hit men. I use the term interchangeably, and either term is perfectly appropriate.
– There’s no such thing as a “Class III license”, and none is required for ownership of Title II firearms (machineguns, suppressors, short barreled rifles/shotguns, etc.). There is a Class III Special Occupational Tax that a normal 01 FFL holder (that is, a gun dealer) can pay in order to sell such items, but that’s just for the dealer.
– Individual owners have an ATF Form 4, which describes the Title II item, and has the tax stamp. This is not a license, but simply proof that one has paid the necessary tax.
– Individual owners lose no privacy rights. No rights are waived. The ATF is not going to come crashing through your door at 3 a.m. simply because you own a [registered] suppressor. They can ask you for a copy of your Form 4 if there’s a question relating to it (the NFA registry is notoriously disorganized, and occasionally they might need to clarify something), but that’s it.
– If one forms an Limited Liability Corporation (LLC)–or a trust, which is usually cheaper–and has the LLC/trust own the Title II items, one bypasses the necessity of fingerprints (as you can’t fingerprint a corporation) and the local chief law enforcement officer sign-off. This can prove to be handy if you put other family members in on the trust, as they could possess the regulated items even if you’re not present — otherwise, if an individual owns the items, they must be present whenever they’re being used. Also, without the local Chief Law Enforcement Officer (CLEO) signature, only the ATF and your Class III dealer would know you own the item.
I’m a suppressor owner, and shoot with it regularly. It makes already-fun .22 LR shooting even more fun, and it creates a more comfortable environment for teaching new shooters. It also has useful SHTF applications, as has been noted by OSOM.
The $200 tax is a bit of a burden, but after a few times using [a suppressor], you wonder how you lived without it before. It makes subsonic .22 Long Rifle (LR) sound like a stapler, supersonic .22 LR sound like some sort of laser-gun/ripping cloth, and ones rated for centerfire rifles significantly reduce the muzzle blast, allowing one to shoot supersonic ammunition without hearing protection. While it does reduce the noise, supersonic .223 out of 16″ barreled ARs and supersonic 9mm out of a standard Uzi SMG do get to be somewhat somewhat annoying after a short while, but are much less uncomfortable than unsuppressed fire.
I highly recommend the Gem-Tech Outback II .22 LR silencer for a first time buyer — it’s low cost (about $550, including tax, shipping, and dealer fees, though your mileage may vary), light weight, and effective noise reduction make it ideal for putting on the end of a Ruger 10/22 rifle or any .22 pistol with a threaded barrel. Subsonic .22 LR ammunition are plentiful, inexpensive, and fun.
While hardly scientific, you can compare the relative difference between suppressed and unsuppressed supersonic and subsonic ammunition by viewing this video. (That’s yours truly with my lovely girlfriend.) SilencerTests.com is an ideal web site to visit as well, and they have all sorts of useful tests and reports on a wide variety of silencers, an active forum, and all sorts of other silencer-related goodies. Cheers! – Pete
Jim:
Regarding your prudent insistence on keeping a low profile, I found this information and I wondered what you thought: Only “individuals” are required by law to have the law enforcement certification section filled out. Corporations and other legal entities may purchase NFA items without submitting photographs, fingerprints and without the CLEO signoff. This exemption is frequently used by those who are unable to obtain a CLEO signoff in their area [because of political incorrectness]. Many people are already an officer of a corporation by virtue of being self-employed and therefore purchase the NFA item through their corporation as a business investment. Others will form a corporation for the express purpose of purchasing NFA items. Forming a corporation is easier than you may think. While you can do it yourself and for a very modest sum of money and you can have a professional do it for you. Thanks, – Daniel
JWR Replies: The incorporation approach would definitely provide a lower profile, at least locally. I just wonder about the longer term implications for everyone that is on “the list.”
OBTW, in addition to incorporation, you can set up a revocable trust. This is fairly inexpensive, and a great way to designate the eventual transfer of guns to your heir(s)–that will become the successor trustee(s).
Odds ‘n Sods:
Reader “Alfie Omega” flagged this new article: Gas at $6 per gallon? Get ready. (Congress has an expensive “solution.”)
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Sean M. forwarded us this one: Solar Shingles Could Power Tomorrow’s Homes. Sean’s comment: “It would difficult to keep these clear in the winter in snow country. But it is discrete, so you won’t be screaming ‘Hey, I have power’ to anyone passing by.”
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For those of you that asked about promotional clips for the upcoming Sarah Connor Chronicles television series, for some reason they were removed from YouTube, but are still available at Daily Motion.
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Frequent contributor Michael Z. Williamson mentioned this amazing snow bike.
Jim’s Quote of the Day:
"All men dream, but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity: But the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes, to make it possible." – T. E. Lawrence
Note from JWR:
Today’s first letter is from a gent who has been a friend of mine for 23 years. The “Doug Carlton” character in my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” was loosely based on him. (Most if the characters in the novel were drawn directly from friends of mine, or composites thereof.) We went to college together and were in the same ROTC program. Upon graduation, he became a U.S. Army helicopter pilot and served in South Korea. He now works in the civilian transportation industry. Among other things, “Doug” is an expert on practical concealed handgun carry, since he has been a CCW license holder for more than a dozen years–in several states–and habitually carries a handgun whenever he leaves his home.
Two Letters Re: Tourniquet Pros and Cons
Jim,
I’m afraid you’re out of date on tourniquet use. It’s been a couple years since we were in the Army, and the world in general has shifted gears on tourniquets. In Iraq and Afghanistan, [we read] “no iatrogenic injury has been reported, even with tourniquet times up to 8 hours.” (Royal Australasian College of Surgeons, 76th annual scientific congress.) US Army literature on the subject has indicated that if the limb can be saved, it can still be saved three hours after a tourniquet is applied (U.S. Medicine, May 2005)
Tourniquets got a bad rap, probably deservedly, in WWII. This was mainly due to the long casevac times, and the mass number of casualties, and state of medical science at the time. The mantra of “use a tourniquet=lose the limb” stems from this. Like many things from WWII, good and bad, it became ingrained in the training of the military even though subsequent studies indicated that tourniquet’s could be useful, especially with the reduced casevac time. It’s estimated that 8-10% of the deaths in Vietnam could have been prevented by using a tourniquet.
Recent actions in Somalia and in Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that tourniquets are effective time-savers, and it’s all about time with a casualty. The WWII notion of loss of limb being automatic is simply false. What’s not false is the notion that you’ll bleed to death pretty fast if you don’t stop the bleeding. Current figures from Iraq indicate that 50% of the combat fatalities before evacuation are due to bleeding out. (Guardian News and Media) Much of this is due to the wound pattern being different than previous wars.
Advanced body armor has saved many lives, but shifted the percentage of injuries to the limbs. Combine that with IEDs and you have many traumatic amputations (in the event of which obviously anyone would use a tourniquet) and other wounds in the same body parts. Obviously a tourniquet isn’t for everything. The old joke about [using a tourniquet on the neck for] a head wound still applies of course;)
Forget writing the short story [“L. Leg Tourn.@0845Z”] in magic marker. Just put a “T” on his forehead in blood, which you will have plenty of. Don’t cover the tourniquet–so it’s seen–but even if it gets covered the doctors will find it pretty easily. This is common sense stuff. If you’re bleeding from your arm, the doctor will look at your arm. If there’s a tourniquet there, then he’ll see it.
The “T” helps out in Triage, etc. but modern battlefield medical care is competent enough to deal with a tourniquet.
Now as I’ve said before, things that apply to the military may not apply to Joe Survivalist. You may have to go “Civil War” on his arm and take it off yourself if that’s the situation, but the application of a tourniquet will not alter that. Don’t loosen the tourniquet until you have the bleeding controlled in some fashion. What that fashion is will depend greatly on your resources. – “Doug Carlton”
James,
I’m a 30-year military vet and Reservist, combat lifesaver qualified, three tours in Iraq, two in Afghanistan, and one in Grenada <grin>; I also was a military / civilian law enforcement SWAT trainer for about 10 years and still attend training annually on subjects like survival, weapons work and medical topics. (“Emptying the teacup” on a regular basis, so to speak)
Like yourself, I held — for years — that the word tourniquet was synonymous with amputation but it is a “last resort” that still beats bleeding to death in a combat situation.
During recent pre-deployment training for a combat tour, I was exposed to the idea of tourniquet usage as a “necessary evil” but I still held — perhaps only within my own mind — that tourniquets were still just a “final option” reserved for times when all other “stopping blood flow” methods failed. (And, implied here, is the associated time lost — and blood loss — with trying all those other methods first.)
At a recent twp-day Wilderness Medical Survival class taught by an emergency room surgeon (who is also on a multi-jurisdiction police SWAT team), the topic of tourniquets arose — and he heartily endorsed their usage sooner versus later, citing not only their employment during the current Global War on Terror but noting that, during microsurgery (the reattachment of a severed hand was the example he cited), tourniquets are routinely applied for 2 to 4 hours without the “guarantee” of follow-on amputation that I naturally expected.
After class, I personally tied — under a paramedic’s supervision — a one-hand-application tourniquet on my upper left arm (I’m left-handed) and left it there for 15 minutes without any distal artery pulse detected in the arm…and with no ill effects and without the arm turning brown and falling off. It hurt / burned immensely, “fell asleep” and was cold to the touch (and bluish) — and I did have a temporary bruise on the skin where the tourniquet strap was twisted and tightened — but that was the extent of the “damage.” (FYI, I am 48)
I don’t advocate trying this on yourself — for many safety reasons, and it was probably very foolish for me to have experimented with my own primary upper appendage — but I had always held an image that the application of a tourniquet would almost immediately transform my extremity into a dried and twisted piece of useless, vestigial flesh within seconds…and it simply wasn’t true. (and, FYI, 15 minutes is an eternity-and-a-half in a firefight)
As such, I’ve had a “paradigm shift” and no longer consider tourniquet usage a “last resort” or “fall-back position” — but now hold tourniquets in the same regard as any other specialized tool, technique, or skill in my toolkit. It has its place, .and not just as a blood stopper of last resort. Hope this helps. – StealthNeighbor