Letter Re: Five Years to Just 50% of the Current U.S. Oil Supply

Dear Jim and Family,

I have bad news. An analyst with an oil background did a study on the oil producing nations and found they would stop exporting 50% of their oil in around 5 years, averaging decline of 10%/year to total world oil exports. The USA is 60% dependent on imported oil, and is currently growing 7% of our needs via ethanol (corn). As we’re in the process of losing Mexico at 15% per year and will see them encounter some social breakdown in 11-17 months time due to loss of exports and tax revenue for their social services, we’re going to see two hard blows to our energy supply and our economy.

Currently the Average Joe driver uses around 10 gallons of fuel per week. In five years he’s going to have to adjust to just 4 gallons per week, and that number will decline along with our domestic oil supply, in decline since 1970.

There are two ways to deal with this problem. (1) Ignore it until you get major shortages causing social collapse, which is expensive for everyone, including rich people and the government. or (2) Institute fuel rationing and price stabilization. I hate that that sort of thing is an option, but its that or total collapse. The government won’t get paid taxes if there’s total collapse, much less keep all its toys running. The rich people who own the government won’t like it either, as it makes them targets for kidnapping and closes their favorite restaurants and ruins the service. Thus, option 2 is far more likely in my opinion.

What can you expect? Either next year or the year after, following some event that briefly causes a massive price surge (say up to $7/gallon over two weeks), the public will demand a solution. The Socialists, sorry Ruling Peoples Progressive Liberal Party (aka Democrats) will get themselves a law demanding gas rationing. The current president will refuse it, but they’ll cajole an overwhelming majority or wait for the next president to sign it into law, which is certainly possible. What will it be like? Probably around 9 gallons per person, per week, based on driver’s license. Spouses can share and it motivates people to either sell their SUVs or carpool with them, which effectively doubles or triples their fuel economy per person. Consider that a 20 mpg Ford Explorer with four people inside is effectively getting 80 mpg per person. Sneaky, isn’t it? And they can combine their rations to fill up the SUV, thus keeping it on the road and keeping their jobs, even if it takes a bit longer to get to work. As time passes and the ration gets smaller, motivation to buy more efficient vehicles or simpler lives and work locations becomes a more serious pressure and the economy gets more fuel and location efficient.

Additionally, expect some blackouts and more screaming and yelling by the public before utility prices rise enough to keep the lights on and motivate people to conserve. Since the price of oil and gas are going to rise anyway, it can’t be helped. If things go very well, we’ll have something sustainable in about 10 years. If they don’t, well, then be sure to visit the range to keep up your skills and stock up on food. This is going to be long haul and there’s no bouncing back from the end of cheap oil, not exactly. We’ll just get better solar panels and used to living on a lot less energy, just like people got used to living without muscle cars. Its the future and it can’t be helped. Sorry for the news. This is awfully soon and not exactly abrupt, but very expensive and demoralizing. Best, – InyoKern

Odds ‘n Sods:

One of my heroes is is economist John Mauldin. He publishes a free e-newsletter that I consider a “must read” for anyone that closely follows investing and economics issues. In his most recent “E-Letter”, John commented on the Bear Stearns sub-prime debacle (That I’ve also discussed.) Here is a quote:”The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that 2.2 million borrowers who got subprime loans since 1998 either have lost or will lose their homes through foreclosure over the next few years. This includes one of every five borrowers who got subprime loans in 2005-06, a default rate unmatched in the history of the modern mortgage market. You can go to your Bloomberg quote machine and pull up residential subprime structured finance deals. What you find is one Residential Mortgage Backed Security that was issued in 2006 that already has over 54% of its loans more than 60 days delinquent and 17% of them in foreclosure. Think the buyers of that equity tranche stand a snowball’s chance of getting anything?
Has this security been re-rated? No, because the ratings agencies say they cannot re-rate something until they know for certain there are losses. They can’t act on suspicion. However, I do remember them putting out warning notices for various bonds and corporate offerings prior to re-rating. I would think those are coming.”

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A reminder to SurvivalBlog readers in the Northwestern U.S.: Don’t miss the first WSRA high power rifle training/match in Kooskia, Idaho, on July 7th and 8th! A few free training scholarships for this training weekend are still available. Just send an e-mail to westernshooters@gmail with the word “SurvivalBlog” in the subject line.

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Reader MWR recommended an article from Jim Willie that was posted on Jim Puplava’s web site. MWR’s comment: “I don’t always agree with his (Jim Willie’s) politics, but I think his economic analysis is spot-on.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day

"The international monetary order is more precarious by far today than it was in 1929. Then, gold was international money, incorruptible, unmanageable, and unchangeable. Today, the U.S. dollar serves as the international medium of exchange, managed by Washington politicians and Federal Reserve officials, manipulated from day to day, and serving political goals and ambitions. This difference alone sounds the alarm to all perceptive observers." – The Late Dr. Hans F. Sennholz

Note from JWR:

Today we present another article for Round 11 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $2,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. I will again be sending out a few complimentary copies of my novel “Patriots” as “honorable mention” awards. Round 11 runs for two months, ending on the last day of July. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Identifying the IED Threat by Steve in Iraq

The Improvised Explosive Device, or IED, is the predominant killer of US troops in Iraq today. Since the initial invasion in 2003, they have become increasingly sophisticated and deadly. If a terrorist organization ever decided to use them to any great extent in the US, the effects would be devastating. We are going to look at the fixed IED as opposed to a Vehicle Borne IED (VBIED,) simply for space and to better cover each subject individually.
First off, there is one rule that will enhance your survivability tremendously: Never set a pattern! If you are able to, have at least three different routes to and from your destination, and vary them. Not only your routes, but your times as well. The harder you are for the enemy to track, the better your chances of survival. When I went to Iraq in 2003, the roadside bombs, as they were simply called, were mainly old artillery shells packed with plastic explosives and placed on the side of the road with a simple trigger such as a cell phone of pager, or land mines that would be buried in the road. Once the convoy of vehicles was spotted, all that was required was for one of the bad guys to make the call, using his cell phone, to the triggering device. Or, the convoy would simply drive over the land mine, not suspecting one had been emplaced in the asphalt. They could also be emplaced by railroad tracks, on the side of the road attached to a guardrail, or at an intersection, either in the road or inside a stoplight pole. As time went on and these roadside bombs were found and defeated, the enemy came up with new and more ingenious methods for using them. One technique was to use dead animals, and place the IED inside of them. Since there was an abundance of dead dogs on the side of the roads, no one would ever suspect! Another technique was to “daisy chain,” or wire several bombs together at one time to cover a greater area. Also, they were found in concrete blocks, behind road signs, and hidden in current roadside construction debris. Many of these techniques are still being used today, in 2007, with tragic results. A new threat has emerged this year, the Explosively Formed Penetrator. This device, which acts very much like a sabot round, is a copper formed, shaped projectile designed to penetrate the heaviest of armor plating, and has been highly effective against US and Coalition Force vehicles. A standard car would stand no chance.
So, how to identify a potential IED? Just the thought of one is terrifying to most people, as it well should be! Vigilance is the key word here. All IEDs require the initiating system to be near the main charge. Common initiating systems, or triggers, include cell phones, walkie talkies, keychain car alarm fobs, garage door openers, or pagers. Anything that will receive a radio or electronic signal. Key indicators are freshly dug areas, dead animals on the side of the road, or people milling around where they shouldn’t be, i.e., a group of people under or on top of a highway overpass. If you see any type of signal, such as lights or flares or warning flags, these are also indicators, along with obstacles in the road that will force you into a “choke point,” where your escape options become nil. Any of these should set off your “spidey sense,” which you need to listen to!
Wires or other obvious indicators in the open will alert you to the presence of an IED, but it can also alert you to the fact that it may be a “hoax” IED, designed to channel you into an area that you may consider safe, but in reality has been already wired by an enemy with the true IED. Hoax IEDs, or secondary IEDs have been used in Israel and Iraq against first responders who have come in response to either a fake bomb, or have come to aid the victims of one IED, only to become victims themselves.
If you suspect an IED, get out of the area as quickly as possible. When you are satisfied you are out of the kill zone, call and alert the authorities. Do not use your phone while you are still in the area! You can set off the triggering device! Let the authorities know what you have seen so they don’t walk into the situation blind, then let them handle it.
Will the US ever see the widespread use of IEDs like Israel has, or Iraq? I hope and pray not, but maybe you now have some idea of how to identify the threat, and strategies to survive another day.

Letter Re: Why Gold and Silver Investing? Will They Have Utility for Barter?

Hello Rawles Family,
First off let me say thanks for all the work y’all have put into sharing the knowledge you have. It has opened many eyes and caused may to be saved in the event something really does happen, I’m sure.
I have recently started preparing for several types of emergencies and one of them is the collapse of the American dollar. I have seen several times that you suggest pre-1965 [silver] coins, and gold coins. They are a good item to have in this situations but I continually find myself asking “Why?”. My position on this is, people (in general) can do nothing productive with silver or gold that I’m aware of, so why would it be “worth” anything. Sure it’s a commodity that governments are after but individuals on the street? I think not. It seems to me that salt, toilet paper and ammunition are a much wiser investment for survival than any form of government issued coins whether they be silver, gold or copper. It seems to me that everyone could use them and everyone would need them. Those are my thoughts, I would be interested in hearing the opinions of both you and your readers about this. Thanks for the time and any info you have to give, – Richard P.

JWR Replies: My opinion on precious metals differs from the majority of other “hard money” advocates. You are correct that in the midst of a “worst case” TEOTWAWKI situation that precious metals will have little or no utility for barter. In fact, during the depths of a socioeconomic collapse, do not expect even pre-1965 silver coinage to be accepted in barter. However, people will likely be willing to conduct barter via common caliber ammunition, flashlight batteries, and food in small packaged units (such as MREs or cans of soup) . It won’t be until the recovery phase that silver coins will be accepted in barter.

The real value of gold and silver will be to act as a “time machine”, preserving your buying from one side of a currency collapse to the other. There may come a day when paper dollars are made almost worthless (as in present-day Zimbabwe), but precious metals will hold their value. After a new –and presumably sound–currency is issued, you can convert part of you precious metals holdings into the current money. Meanwhile anyone that held all paper dollars will be left holding kindling. Thus, precious metals are a form of insurance for limited circumstances . Don’t expect anything more of them when the proverbial Schumer Hits the Fan (SHTF).

Odds ‘n Sods:

An article published in The Lancet confirms that taking the herbal remedy echinacea can reduce the risk of catching a common cold by 58%

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By way of Matt Drudge come this news story from Florida: How do you prepare for “a bolt from the blue”? (Florida is the nation’s lightning strike capital.)

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Remember that there are now less than two weeks remaining for the $500 Interceptor Body Armor (IBA) vest special from BulletProofME.com. July 12th is the deadline. Anyone who has shopped for body armor knows what a great deal $500 is for a new Interceptor vest. Don’t miss out on this deal.

Jim’s Quote of the Day

“For more than two thousand years gold’s natural qualities made it man’s universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper.” – The Late Dr. Hans F. Sennholz

Note from JWR:

Because so many readers of SurvivalBlog are interested in establishing survival retreats, I’m continuing the process of setting up a new SurvivalBlog “sibling” web site that will feature survival retreat real estate listings. These will be both For Sale By Owner (FSBO) and from licensed real estate agents, worldwide. If you have a retreat property for sale, or know of someone that does, here is the deal: To get the new survival real estate web site off to a fast start with a lot property ads, I am offering two free months of advertisements for the first 25 property sellers that respond. Just e-mail me a brief description (200 words or less) of the property that you have available. (I’ll need detailed description and digital photos, later.) I can’t guarantee exactly when the new web site will be launched, but our tentative goal is to have it up and running the week of July 4th, or soon after.

Letter Re: Chainsaws and Long Term Gasoline Storage

Sir:
I get great satisfaction cutting firewood and “stockpiling” fuel for winter, and I always put Sta-Bil in my gas if I know I will not finish the gas can. But I know if my Stihl chainsaw won’t start it is the gas(premixed with 2 stroke oil) If my knuckles are bloody from trying to start it, I dump the gas, pull it a few times to get the fuel out of the line, refill with fresh gas and it will fire-up on the second pull. My saw doesn’t like gasoline that has lost the volatile gases. Post-TEOTWAWKI I will be stuck with bow saws and axes to heat my house and all that 2 stroke oil I bought last month at your suggestion might as well be gun oil! Any diesel chainsaws out there?

I went to my Stihl dealer yesterday and asked about the ethanol chainsaws that you mentioned a while ago that are available in South America. He will look into ordering one for me. (But how will I get the unique parts if they wear/break?) I mainly wanted to know about gas/2stroke mix going bad quickly even with Sta-Bil added. The mechanic said that if you leave the oil/gas mix together too long before using it the 2 cycle oil dissolves too thoroughly in the gas and burns without lubricating, then scorching the cylinder! I guess I will start mixing only ‘just enough’ oil/gas mix. I am looking for a syringe to measure the oil to add to the gas also because I bought bulk package Stihl 2 stoke oil. I can’t be throwing away oil/gas mix that gets old, that would be poor stewardship of our resources. Its better to do our trouble shooting now rather than later. – Edventures

JWR Replies: The dearth of diesel chainsaws was mentioned in SurvivalBlog a few weeks ago. I concluded that: “…there were a few diesel saws made decades ago, but they never caught on, since diesels are inherently heavier than gas engines of the same displacement, and they typically have lower RPM.”

Letter Re: Well “Torpedo” or “Bullet” Bucket Construction Plans

Jim –
Do you have a diagram or plans for a well torpedo? In case I have the term wrong, a PVC tube with a flapper valve at the bottom that when sent down the well shaft hits the water, the tube fills/sinks, when you pull on the rope the flapper valve closes sealing in the water for you to pull up the well shaft. I have the well. What I need is the way to install the flapper valve. Thanks, – DAB

JWR Replies: For any readers that aren’t familiar with them, narrow shaft well buckets–also sometimes called “bullet buckets” or “torpedo buckets” are designed for manually drawing water from modern modern small diameter wells that are more than 20 feet deep. Shallow wells (less than 20 foot depth) are much more efficiently accessed with a hand pump, such as a traditional pitcher-type cistern pump (available from Lehmans.com) or this home-fabricated PVC design by Keith Hendricks, shown at the PermaPak web site. Deeper wells require a sucker-rod actuated pump.

Have a deep well but you can’t afford a manual pump or you don’t foresee anything but short term emergency need to draw water? A bucket will do. The following method works, but you will first have to pull the pump, wiring and its draw pipe before you can use an emergency bucket. Most modern wells have 4-inch or 6-inch diameter casings. Well buckets can be made from PVC pipe and some fittings available at nearly any hardware store. (The only hard-to-find item is the foot valve.) Use a 4 or 5 ft. length of 3-inch diameter white PVC pipe if your well has a 4″ casing, or 4″ diameter pipe if your well has a 6″ casing.

Assembling the Bucket:
For the top cap, drill a hole in the center and insert a threaded eye-bolt with lock washer and nut to hold the lifting/lowering rope. Use PVC cement to attach the pipe cap. Be sure to use sturdy nylon rope. (Recovering a bucket if the rope breaks would be problematic, to say the least.) In the bottom cap, drill a centered hole and install a “foot” valve. This will be open when floating and allow water in to the bucket. The valve will automatically close when the bucket is pulled up. Foot valves (also called “check valves”) are available in PVC construction, as well as brass and cast iron. Depending on the type of valve you buy, you will probably have to screw a threaded pipe adapter (male-to-male short coupling) to into the top of the valve and then glue it into the appropriate size hole that you have drilled into the end cap. Needless to say, you need to be sure that the valve’s “flapper” is oriented in the right direction before you attach it to the bottom cap. You need the bucket valve to hold rather that release water when the bucket is raised!

OBTW, for anyone that would rather buy a commercially-made well bucket, they are available from Ready Made Resources (search on “Well Bucket”), and from Lehmans.com (search on “Galvanized well bucket”.)

Letter Re: Positive Feedback on BulletProofME.com

Hey Guys,
I was the first to order an Interceptor [body Armor (IBA)] vest from BulletProofME.com and I am very pleased. I disassembled the vest to check the inserts, and there was a momentary panic because they were made by Second Chance in 2005. I sent the serial number and lot number in to Second Chance, and they told me the vest had no Zylon. With that knowledge, that vest turned into a heck of a deal. Thanks, – Jeff

Odds ‘n Sods:

I got a note from the Western Rifle Shooters Association today. They’ve offered a free scholarship to the first 10 SurvivalBlog readers who send an e-mail to westernshooters@gmail.com with the word “SurvivalBlog” in the subject line, for their upcoming Kooskia, Idaho shoot/clinic on July 7-8. All they ask is that if you say you are going to be there, be there. (Don’t take a place and then not show.)

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Reader Tim. L. mentioned that Dr. Hans F. Sennholz (whom I quoted yesterday) passed on to the great reward on June 23rd. He was a great Austrian school economist. His eulogy has now been published on the web. I have updated the Quote of the Day posting , to note his passing.

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There is lots of buzz on the Internet about the upcoming Sarah Connor Chronicles television series. Fans of the Terminator franchise–all over the world are anxiously waiting to see the new show. There is already a Yahoo discussion group dedicated to the series. Summer Glau, who you may remember as “River” from the short-lived but widely acclaimed Firefly television series will play a “protector” Terminatrix in the series. Meanwhile, Kristanna Loken (who you’ll remember as the baddy Terminatrix from Terminator 3) is starring in a Sci-Fi Channel series that is also set in the near future: Painkiller Jane. And, as previously mentioned, the Jericho TV series has been saved from cancellation. So it seems that survival-oriented fiction is building a niche in the mainstream media. One can only hope that this may help some heads to emerge from the sand before TEOTWAWKI arrives.

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Pardon me for engaging in a bit of personal biz: I’m looking for a propane freezer to use here at the ranch. It must be in good condition, 14 cubic foot capacity or larger, and less than 15 years old. I’d prefer a chest freezer, but will also consider upright models. I can pay cash, and/or I have some great items available to barter. (See my catalog, plus a lot of other ammo and pyrotechnic goodies that aren’t listed in the catalog.) If the price is right, I’m willing to come pick it up just about anywhere in the western U.S.! Let me know via e-mail if you have one available. Thanks!

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Using the commons as a cesspool does not harm the general public under frontier conditions, because there is no public, the same behavior in a metropolis is unbearable." – Garrett Hardin

Note from JWR:

There are now just two days left in the special two week “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” Six Pack Sale. For any orders postmarked on or before June 30th, I’m offering a box of six autographed copies of my novel “Patriots“, packed in a well-padded USPS Priority Mail Flat Rate box, for $93, postage and Delivery Confirmation tracking label costs paid, to any US or APO/FPO address. That is just $15.50 per copy! And again, I pay the postage. Get your Christmas shopping done early this year! Make sure that your order is postmarked on or before June 30th. See my original post for ordering details.