Pop Goes The Bubble: The New Century Financial Corp. Debacle

The recent news that New Century Financial Corporation, the nation’s second-biggest subprime mortgage lender is about to declare bankruptcy didn’t come as a great surprise to me. I see it as a bellwether event. Lots of other sub-prime lenders are at risk. This is another piece of evidence that the grossly over-inflated real estate bubble, that up until now has been deflating gracefully, is about to absolutely implode. In coastal regions, residential real estate prices were bid up to unsustainable levels, fueled by low interest rates and legions of lenders that were willing to make loans to people that shouldn’t have been eligible to buy a car, much less a house. There are now millions of real estate “investors” (the folks that I call contrapreneurs) who are locked in to adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs.) Many of these contrapreneurs bought second or even third homes on speculation. (“On spec”.) The “flipping” of houses was quite profitable in the rising real estate market circa 2002 to 2006. Any idiot could make money doing it. (“A rising tide raises all ships.”) Now the market has turned, and there are not enough buyers to absorb all of those spec houses. There are countless stories about houses that have languished on the market for many months, without a legitimate offer. Here is a link to one such story.

We are now witnessing a cascading effect. The first noticeable shift came when existing house sales and housing “starts” numbers began to fall, as interest rates edged upwards. The building contractors, most of them savvy individuals, knew when to get out when the getting was good. They slashed their prices to move their existing inventories, and they cut way back on new construction. Their “bargains” and incentives (one in Reno was giving away free Hummer H3s with each house sold) created a downward momentum in residential house prices. Seeing this, the “spec” buyers started dropping their prices “just to make sure” that their spec houses sold promptly. But a funny thing happened: Most of them didn’t sell, even at the lower asking prices. Recently, the specs were faced with a dilemma: “Should I cut my asking price even more, and sell the house at a loss, or try to find renters and hang on until the market bounces back?” Based on the continuing fall in prices, it is clear that a lot of them decided to take the loss, and just plain bail out. It is noteworthy that what had been most over-hearted markets like Phoenix, Arizona, coastal Florida, Las Vegas, Hawaii, and San Diego are seeing the steepest price declines. According to www.HousingBubbleBust.com, quoting the National Association of Realtor’s Q4 2006 report, “73 metro[politan] areas have shown a price decline. Sarasota is down 18%, Fort Myers 12% and Reno 9%. Other major markets with a decline are San Diego, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Pittsburg, Phoenix, Kansas City, Sacramento, Washington DC, Boston, Dallas, Detroit, New Orleans, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Providence, Miami and Denver”.

The next effects were jumps in the mortgage payment delinquency rates and later, in some regions, the mortgage default rates. Unable to make their mortgage payments, the contrapreneurs are now going into default in large numbers. But the current default figures will seem small once those millions of ARM loans get “reset” in the next year, at higher interest rates. (Estimates range from $265 billion to $1 trillion in home loans that are scheduled for “resets” in the next 12 months.) I call this the ARM-twisting effect. When the ARM rates jump two or three percentage points, it won’t be pretty. There will be hundreds of thousands of people that lose their homes. The current conjecture in financial circles is that there could soon be a full scale mortgage crisis in the U.S.

The bankers, in early panic mode, are presently putting more and more post-default houses on the market, at fire sale prices. They don’t want to get stuck with them. But in some markets like Phoenix and San Diego, those houses aren’t selling. There simply aren’t enough willing buyers. In many cities, it isn’t just “buyer’s market.” It is a dead market. There are precious few people that want to “invest” in what they rightfully perceive as a declining market. The few buyers out there are now bargain hunting. And they are not in any great hurry to buy. The upward ratcheting of house prices sen in the previous four years has been replaced by a not perceptible downward-ratcheting. So the buyers know that time is on their side.

The next effect was felt by real estate agents and brokers. Many of them are a now looking for new careers. I recently heard an interesting statistic: South Florida had more than 3,000 gainfully employed real estate agents at the peak of the buying frenzy. But now there are now only about 300. Next, title companies will have to lay off employees, as sales slow.

Where and when will all of this end? With prices a lot lower, and probably not until a full decade from now. I woudln’t be surprised to see prices (in real terms, adjusted for inflation) down 50% or more in the erstwhile “hot” market regions. As the house price down-ratcheting effect get more pronounced, many homeowners”will come to the realization that they are upside down in their mortgages. (Where the current market value of the house is less than their outstanding principal on their home loan.) What will they do? I predict that many of them will walk away. They will simply hand their banker the house keys, or just do what out British cousins charmingly call “a midnight flit.” (Abandoning their houses without a proper goodbye to their banker.) This is not unprecedented. The same thing happened in Texas in the late 1970s and early 1980s, following a down-turn in the oil industry. But this time it will happen from coast to coast.

The rippling effects of the real estate bust will be felt for many years. There certainly will be huge losses for lenders. The New Century collapse will probably be the first of many. Building contractors will go out of business. (The wise ones will likely switch to remodeling.) Three-quarters of the real estate agents in the country will be out of work or chronically under-employed. The ripples of the real estate implosion will also likely touch the bond market, the insurance industry, and the derivatives market.

Once prices have dropped 30%, renters will start pestering their landlords, asking for correspondingly lower rents. By just threatening to move out, they will probably get the rent concessions that they ask for. (No landlord will want to be stuck with an un-occupied rental house. The fear of a negative cash flow is a powerful thing)

And The Good News?

Those of us that are nearing retirement, or those that are considering moving to a retreat locale may see some good come from the real estate bust. You may find some real bargains, especially as the market nears its bottom. Just be sure that you have cash in pocket to take advantage of a bargain when it comes along.

More than a year ago, I posted a recommendation in SurvivalBlog that anyone who had firm plans to sell their house within 18 months should do so, post haste, and rent them back from the new owners. (Most likely by selling to a property management company.) Now that that the market has decidedly turned nationwide, that is probably no longer an option in many regions, but it it still worth a try. I also recommended that anyone with a second home, a spec house, a rental house, or a vacation home that was not viable as a survival retreat should dump them. I hope that people took that advice. The opportunity to get out of such real estate investments is now dwindling. If you can get out now, even if it means taking a small loss, I strongly encourage that you to do so.



Letter Re: The Psychology of Survival in TEOTWAWKI

Sir:
I have been trying to paint mental pictures of men, women, and children scouring the countryside for food and fuel, arriving/crashing through the gate to my property, intent on their own survival.
They are hungry, desperate, and in a panic state of mind. I have tried to picture myself shooting warning shots over their heads, hearing them scream and curse at me, and hopefully going away.
I have Dakota Alerts in place for early detection during the night. I had dogs, but they are shot or beaten to death early on in the nightmare scenario.
But the alarms keep going off, and I know that there is movement on my property, and they are close at hand. I pour some semi-auto [fire] out of a window into the darkness to scare them off, and they move on.
But it continues for weeks. The trucking of supplies to us from Mexico has taken much too long, as the main highway system is chaos, and the ports that remain functional have bogged down from a myriad of logistical problems. Canada is doing what it can for the Northern U.S., but law and order have vanished in my area.
Then the pounding on the doors begins, and with some shots and threats. Things have deteriorated to the point to where looters do not care if they are killed. They are miserable
and almost dead already. So now the killing begins, and they will certainly kill me if that is what it takes to get some food and supplies. The Mad Max movie has begun, but it is not theatrical.
If I am to survive, I must take drastic actions.
The psychology/mindset of survival is something I am coming to grips with. It is something so foreign to me, having lived in a wonderland of plenty for so long,
that it is shocking to the senses. It is warfare, but an x-rated dirty and disgusting picture of humanity at its most primitive. How does one imagine barbarians crashing down upon a once civilized culture, reducing the lifestyle to one of filth, starvation, horror, and blood. A ghastly life of violence and suffering and riot; catastrophic losses and degradation to the point of madness and murder. Seeing ones family members huddled together in fear and weeping. Digging pits for the bodies that were killed during the night, remembering their screams and moans, knowing that packs of wild dogs will be trying to dig them up the next night. I could go on, but won’t.
I think we can arm ourselves, and have a quite content attitude about how much storage food we have. But, there is the emotional aspect of survival that I am trying to deal with. Does your book ““Patriots”] help here? – Martin P.

JWR Replies: Yes, you will find that my novel “Patriots” is quite helpful in thinking through retreat security and some of the psychological aspects of TEOTWAWKI. In it, I describe some practical and tactical methods for retreat security in a “worst case”. In fact, there are some strategies and tactics presented in the novel that I’ve never seen presented elsewhere. In all of my writings, I have stressed the importance of relocating to a lightly-populated region that is well removed from major metropolitan regions. In the event of a full scale societal collapse, the nightmarish circumstances that you describe will be likely in the cities and in the suburbs, but they are thankfully far, far less likely out in the hinterboonies. In essence, fewer people means fewer problems.



Odds ‘n Sods:

“Si” mentioned that the US. Department of HHS has developed a Radiation Event Medical Management (REMM) web site, with some useful resources. Si says that the site features: “Lots of information on treating people exposed to radiation from sources such as nuclear weapons, dirty bombs, reactor accidents, etc.”

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“R.P.” spotted a real estate listing for a nice property in central Texas that might be of interest. R.P. says: “I think it has a lot of the requirements that you have stated for a good retreat.”

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RBS sent us this link: No Passport For Britons Refusing Mass Surveillance.





Note from JWR:

Today we present another article submitted for Round 9 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $1,600.) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. I will again be sending out a few complimentary copies of my novel “Patriots” as “honorable mention” awards. If you want a chance to win the contest, start writing and e-mail us your article. Round 9 will end on March 31st. Remember that the articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.



Selecting a Retreat Location in Australia, by Mike McD.

Saying that Australia is unique sounds clichéd but in so many ways it is true. It is the world’s largest island and the world’s smallest continent. It is one of the least densely populated countries in the world and yet one of the world’s most heavily urbanised. It is the flattest, driest, least fertile inhabited continent on earth but which through modern agricultural practices is one of the world’s largest food producers. The list of its unique features goes on.

Selecting a retreat location in Australia requires this uniqueness be taken into account. Failure to do so will be fatal WTSHTF. Figure 1 Map of Australia

Overview

Population density and distribution

Australia is 2 941 299 sq miles {7 617 930 sq km} (approximately the size of the lower 48 states) with a population of 20 million giving it an average population density of around 6.7 per square mile {2.6 per square kilometre}. Obviously as in the case of the US this distribution of population isn’t even across the country. Figure 2 gives the distribution of Australia’s population at 30 June 2004. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)

Australia is heavily urbanised with 40% of its population living in just two cities – Sydney and Melbourne. When looking at the number of Australians who live in cities of 1 million or more (there are 5 – Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth) we see that this rises to 60% or 12.3 million out of a population of 20 million. This heavy urbanisation means that outside the capital cities population density drops dramatically.

In the state by state breakdowns, density figures are given including and excluding the capital city.

In the event of TEOTWAWKI, the south-eastern coastal region of the mainland will become a seething mass of humanity fleeing the major cities. The Pacific Highway between Sydney and Brisbane will become the Highway of Death as the Golden Horde heading north out of Sydney meet the Golden Horde fleeing south from Brisbane. Similarly the roads and regions between Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne will suffer from the effects of two or more Golden Hordes meeting.

Outside these densely populated areas the country is vast and lacking in infrastructure. It is possible to travel 1000 miles (or more) in a straight line without once crossing a sealed road. A number of rough dirt tracks cross these empty regions however travelling these in anything less that a well prepared 4WD is foolhardy in the extreme. Every year deaths occur when the unprepared attempt to cross these regions.

Water

In the driest inhabited continent access to water is the number one consideration in selecting a retreat location. The average annual rainfall over 80% of the continent is below 24 inches {600 millimetres (mm)} per year, and below 12 inches {300mm} over 50%. The average annual rainfall is shown in Figure 3.

Australia’s rainfall pattern is strongly seasonal in character, with a winter rainfall regime in parts of the south, a summer regime in the north and generally more uniform or erratic throughout the year elsewhere.

Drought is common in Australia and climate change looks set to make periods of drought longer and more severe. The effects of prolonged drought and the resulting pressures on the remaining water supplies by nearby population clusters need to be taken into account.

Artesian (bore) water is available in parts of the interior however this will be the only source of water.

In terms of population and rainfall, the tropical north of Australia and south-western Tasmania would seem good locations. There are of course a number of other considerations that need to be taken into account before deciding on a retreat location.
Sunshine

Most of the continent receives more than 3,000 hours of sunshine a year, or nearly 70% of the total possible. In central Australia and the mid-west coast of Western Australia, totals slightly in excess of 3,500 hours occur. Totals of less than 1,750 hours occur on the west coast and highlands of Tasmania, which is the equivalent of only 40% of the total possible per year.

In southern Australia, the duration of sunshine is greatest about December when the sun is at its highest elevation, and lowest in June when the sun is lowest. In northern Australia, sunshine is generally greatest over the period August to October prior to the wet season, and least over the period January to March during the wet season.

Natural Hazards

Earthquakes

Australia sits in the middle of a tectonic plate and thus lacks major fault lines as is the case along the west coast of the North and South America. Intra-plate earthquakes do sometimes occur such as the 1989 Newcastle earthquake (5.6 on the Richter scale) which killed 13. Although earthquakes do not rate highly as a hazard in Australia, the earthquake history of a retreat area should be researched and sensible precautions be made.

Volcanoes

There are no active or dormant volcanoes in Australia. The last volcanic activity occurred over 4500 years ago.

Thunderstorms, hail and tornadoes

Thunderstorms are most frequent over northern Australia with high frequencies (30 to 50 per year) also occurring over the eastern uplands of New South Wales. Some parts of southern Australia receive fewer than 10 thunderstorms per year, with eastern Tasmania receiving fewer than 5. Through most of Australia thunderstorms are more common during the warmer half of the year, but along the southern fringe they also occur in winter as a result of low-level instability in cold air masses of Southern Ocean origin.

Some thunderstorms can become severe, with flash flooding, large hail and damaging winds. These storms can be very destructive. The Sydney hailstorm of 1999, in which hailstones up to 3.5 inches {9 centimetres (cm)} in diameter were observed, was Australia’s most costly natural disaster, with losses estimated at $1.7b.

While thunderstorms in general are most common in northern Australia, the most damaging thunderstorms, in terms of hail and wind gusts, occur in the eastern halves of New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Tornadoes are also associated with severe thunderstorms, although they do not occur with the same frequency or severity as can occur in the United States of America. As tornado paths are narrow it is rare, but not unknown, for them to strike major population centres, with notable examples occurring in Brighton (Melbourne) in February 1918, the southern suburbs of Brisbane in November 1973, and several Perth suburbs in May 2005.

Snow

During most years, snow covers much of the Australian Alps above 4800 feet {1,500 metres (m)} for varying periods from late autumn to early spring. Similarly, in Tasmania, the mountains are covered fairly frequently above 3200 feet {1,000m} in those seasons. The area, depth and duration of snow cover are highly variable from year to year. These areas can experience light snowfalls at any time of year. Small patches of snow can occasionally persist through summer in sheltered areas near the highest peaks, but there are no permanent snowfields.

Snowfalls at lower elevations are more irregular, although areas above 1900 feet {600m} in Victoria and Tasmania, and above 1,000 metres in the New South Wales highlands, receive snow at least once in most winters, as do the highest peaks of Western Australia’s Stirling Ranges. In most cases snow cover is light and short-lived. In extreme cases, snow has fallen to sea level in Tasmania and parts of Victoria, and to 650 feet {200m} in other parts of southern Australia, but this is extremely rare. The only major Australian cities to have received a significant snow cover at any time in the last century are Canberra and Hobart, although Melbourne experienced a heavy snowfall in 1849, and there are anecdotal reports of snowflakes in Sydney in 1836.

Floods

Heavy rainfall conducive to widespread flooding can occur anywhere in Australia, but is most common in the north and in the eastern coastal areas. There are three main flood types:

* flash floods, which are generally localised and often emanate from severe thunderstorms.

* short-lived floods lasting a few days that occur in shorter coastal streams, and inundate the natural or modified flood plain. These are the most economically damaging floods, affecting the relatively densely-populated coastal river valleys of New South Wales and Queensland (e.g. the Burdekin, Brisbane, Tweed, Richmond, Clarence, Macleay, Hunter and Nepean-Hawkesbury valleys), and the major river valleys of the tropics. While these floods are chiefly caused by summer rains, they can occur in any season. Floods of similar duration also occur in Tasmania, Victoria (particularly rivers draining the north-east ranges) and the Adelaide Hills, although in these latter regions they are more common in winter and spring.

* long-lived floods of the major inland basins. These floods usually arise from heavy summer rains in inland Queensland and New South Wales, and move slowly downstream, some ultimately draining into the lower Murray-Darling system or towards Lake Eyre. Floods of this type can take several months to move from the upper catchments to the lower Darling or to Lake Eyre. They often cover an extensive area and gradually disappear through a combination of seepage into the sandy soils and evaporation; it is only occasionally that floodwaters of Queensland origin actually reach Lake Eyre. Floodwaters can also cover large areas in situ when heavy rains occur in a region of uncoordinated drainage such as much of western and central Australia.

Bushfires

Under adverse weather conditions, bushfires in Australian eucalyptus forests cannot be stopped and often destroy homes and settlements which border such areas. Huge amounts of flammable eucalyptus vapour, transpired from leaves, create fireballs which often engulf the forest upper storey ahead of the main fire-front. South-eastern Australia has the greatest wildfire hazard in the world. Large bushfires burn until stopped naturally by rain or lack of fuel, which may be weeks after ignition.
In the event of a breakdown in law and order, a retreat in the bushland that surrounds major population centers (such as the Blue Mountains on the western edge of Sydney) would become a death trap as every fire bug with a match would come out to play.

Wildlife

Post-TEOTWAWKI, the risk posed by the profusion of deadly snakes, spiders, and sea life that can be found throughout the country needs to be taken into account. The current low death rates can be attributed to the wide availability of anti-venene and modern medical treatments, both of which will be non existent post TEOTWAWKI.

In the tropical north the saltwater crocodile is a threat to both man and livestock. The ban on hunting has seen their numbers explode across the north. If your retreat is located in croc territory, arming yourself with knowledge (and sufficient firepower) will go a long way to improving your chances at survival.

One less obvious animal danger is the one posed by wounded kangaroos and emus. Normally kangaroos and emus make use of their great speed to get themselves out of danger, preferring flight to fight. But if wounded or cornered, their powerful kicks and large clawed feet can easily be fatal. I have seen a wounded kangaroo gut a pair of pit-bulls like fish, and there have been recorded fatalities when people failed to respect the danger these animals can pose.

Manmade Hazards

Gun Laws

It is possible (with some considerable hoop jumping) to own guns in Australia, however you are generally limited to bolt action rifles/shotguns, lever action/pump action riles, and single/double barrel shotguns. To the general public semi auto rifles/shotguns and pump action shotguns are prohibited. Likewise, handguns are strictly controlled with prohibitions on calibre (under 9mm), magazine capacity, barrel length, and what they can be used for (target shooting only) to name a few.

Australian gun laws will only get worse as the main political parties have stated their desire to reduce the number of guns in the community with total elimination the final goal.

Queensland
Area: 668,206 square miles {1,730,648 square kilometres} (rank 2 of 7).
Population: 3,977,100 (2005).
Capital: Brisbane 1,810,900
Population Density:
Including capital city- 5.95 per square mile [2.30 per square kilometre]
Excluding capital city- 3.24 per square mile [1.25 per square kilometre] (Rank 4 of 7).
Pluses: Good climate (temperate to tropical), high rainfall in the tropical north, low population density beyond the south-east corner.
Minuses: Tropical north hazards (cyclones and crocodiles), close proximity of Cape York to Papua New Guinea (potential for a large influx of illegal immigrants), low rainfall in the south-west, high population density in south-eastern corner.

New South Wales
Area: 309,129 square miles {800,642 square kilometres} (rank 5 of 7).
Population: 6,768,900 [2005].
Capital: Sydney 4,254,900
Population Density:
Including capital city- 21.90 per square mile [8.45 per square kilometre]
Excluding capital city- 8.13 per square mile [3.14 per square kilometre] (Rank 5 of 7).
Pluses: temperate climate along the coastal regions.
Minuses: high population density along the coast, the potential for two or more Golden Hordes meeting along the north coast and south-east regions, extremely high bush fire danger (especially after the breakdown of law and order), lack of reliable water supply west of the Great Dividing Ranges.

Victoria
Area: 87,874 square miles {227,594 square kilometres} (rank 6 of 7).
Population: 5,023,200 (2005).
Capital: Melbourne 3,634,200
Population Density:
Including capital city – 57.21 per square mile [22.09 per square kilometre]
Excluding capital city – 15.82 per square mile [6.11 per square kilometre] (Rank 7 of 7).
Pluses: good rainfall across much of the state, good land fertility.
Minuses: high population density (massive Golden Horde potential), extremely high bush fire danger.

Tasmania
Area: 26,409 square miles {68,401 square kilometres} (rank 7 of 7).
Population: 485,700 (2005).
Capital: Hobart 203,600
Population Density:
Including capital city- 18.39 per square mile [7.10 per square kilometre]
Excluding capital city- 10.68 per square mile [4.12 per square kilometre] (Rank 6 of 7).
Pluses: high rainfall across the state, good land fertility, low bushfire potential, isolation from the mainland, large percentage of wilderness.
Minuses: high population density, cold climate (by Australian standards), isolation from the mainland (isolation can be a double edged sword).

South Australia
Area: 379,724 square miles {983,482 square kilometres} (rank 4 of 7).
Population: 1,542,100 (2005).
Capital: Adelaide 1,129,300
Population Density:
Including capital city- 4.06 per square mile [1.57 per square kilometre]
Excluding capital city- 1.09 per square mile [0.42 per square kilometre] (Rank 3 of 7).
Pluses: low population density.
Minuses: lack of water across the state (South Australia is the driest state in the driest country).

West Australia
Area: 976,790 square miles {2,529,875 square kilometres} (rank 1 of 7).
Population: 2,011,000 (2005).
Capital: Perth 1,477,800
Population Density:
Including capital city- 2.06 per square mile [0.79 per square kilometre]
Excluding capital city- 0.55 per square mile [0.21 per square kilometre] (Rank 2 of 7).
Pluses: very low population density, good rainfall in south-western corner, high rainfall in the tropical north, isolation from the east coast of the country (1000 miles of desert between Perth and Adelaide provides a buffer zone few could/would try to cross WTSHTF), temperate climate in the south-west.
Minuses: lack of water across much of the state, Golden Horde potential in south-west corner, proximity of the tropical north to Indonesia, cyclones and crocs in the north.

Northern Territory
Area: 520,901 square miles {1,349,129 square kilometres} (rank 3 of 7).
Population: 203,400 (2005).
Capital: Darwin 111,800
Population Density:
Including capital city- 0.39 per square mile [0.15 per square kilometre]
Excluding capital city- 0.18 per square mile [0.07 per square kilometre] (Rank 1 of 7).
Pluses: extremely low population density, high rainfall in the north during the wet season.
Minuses: cyclones, crocs, proximity to Indonesia/East Timor, restricted travel during the wet season in the north, lack of water during the dry season in the north and year round in the south.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Michael Z. Williamson pointed out a fascinating web site: The Great Firewall of China. With it, you can test to see if any web site is banned by censors in China. Mike notes: “I tested my sites. My writing site is clear. My blade [making] site is banned.” Go figure.Out of curiosity, I just tested SurvivalBlog, and oddly enough, it is not banned in China. I assumed that because I had mentioned laogai slave labor system in China that my site would have been banned. This has me depressed. Clearly, something is wrong when even a reactionary “Capitalist rotor” and overt libertarian like me passes muster by a bunch of dictatorial communists. I must not be trying hard enough. For the record: Free China! Free Tibet! Remember Tiananmen Square! Wen Jiabao sucks eggs! Harry Wu for president!

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And speaking of censorship, I heard from :”Jeff Trasel” that the the enlightened Powers That Be at the Wikipedia are putting the “WTSHTF” acronym up for a deletion vote. If any of you are established Wikipedia contributors, then Jeff would appreciate it if you were to chime in with your opinion in this vote, and post a “watch” on the WTSHTF entry. As recently as two years ago, the Wikipedia was a fun and interesting place to share knowledge. But in the past year or so, the snooty liberal nanny-staters have increasingly pushed their own agenda, using strict and even downright biased interpretation of the posting rules to consciously edge out conservative, firearms, preparedness, home schooling, and constitutional law wikipedia topics. From what Jeff has told me, what is happening there isn’t just subtle “self censorship.” It is blatant liberal bias, with a small leftist minority forcing its views on the entire Wikipedia community.

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And speaking of Schumer hitting the fan, want to see what happens when Mr. Schumer’s belongings hit the fan? These D.C. denizens desperately need a maid service!

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Rob at $49 MURS radios wrote us to say: “In regard to the SurvivalBlog Reader Barter Experiment, I will be making my final choices from all offers received by Friday, March 16th. There is still time to be considered if you e-mail your barter offer before then. After that date I will make a list of all the items that were offered (no personal info will be included). So far I have received some very interesting barter offers!





Note from JWR:

Life in "The Mud Season" continues. Yesterday we had another power failure. We seem to get most of them in the Fall and the Spring. Things are presently very soggy with all the melting snow, so it is inevitable that some trees will fall. That is life in the hinterboonies. But as a well-prepared family, we can take these glitches in stride.



Letter Re: Advice on a High Capacity .45 ACP Pistol

Jim,
Tell me, what is your view on the Glock 21 platform? I made an election to go with this as opposed to a 1911 platform…mag capacity, accuracy, etc. The only down-side to the Glock 21 or any of those platforms, is the absence of a manual safety. It must always be holstered. For $450, they tend to outshoot their contemporaries; at 13 rds per magazine they pack a payload of punch.Your feedback? – Matt

JWR Replies: I think the Glock 21 is a fine pistol. As I have mentioned in SurvivalBlog before, if I hadn’t 30+ years of “muscle memory” invested in the M1911 design, that I would probably switch to Glocks or one of the new Glock clones. Most recently, I’ve been very tempted by the Glock-ish Springfield Armory XD .45 ACP, which also holds 13 rounds. The XDs have a grip safety as well as a Glock-style trigger safety, plus a “drop” safety. They also have both striker status and loaded chamber indicators, which might be a bit “gadgety”, but reassuring to have available. Even more importantly, they have a fully supported chamber, and a more natural grip angle than the Glock. (The grip feels a lot like a M1911 to me.) If I were to re-design the Glock, it would result in something a lot like the XD.

Regardless of your choice in handguns, use the right holster! I generally recommend designs that are molded from stiff Kydex, with a fully-adjustable tensioning system. Protecting the trigger is crucial for safety with a Glock, an XD, or other “safety in the trigger” Glock-ish designs. Here at the Rawles Ranch, we almost exclusively use Bladetech brand Kydex holsters. (We use them to carry our stainless Colt 1911 .45 ACPs. In fact, our only remaining traditional leather holsters are a couple of inside-the-waistband concealment holsters made by Milt Sparks.) When The Memsahib and I were at Front Sight last May, we I noticed that about 80% of the people on the firing line used Bladetech gear. That speaks volumes! BTW, Bladetech’s “Combo” packages (holster + mag pouch + separate detachable paddle) are a very good deal. The Fobus brand (from Israel) is another good buy in a stiff, adjustable tension, molded Kydex holster.

I should also mention that with a new Federal magazine ban (H.R. 1022) pending, make sure that you line up a large supply of magazines to buy before–or coincident with–your next purchase of any high capacity rifle, pistol, or submachinegun. Budget for buying at least 8 and preferably a dozen or more spare magazines for each gun, and don’t delay in doing so! If you dawdle, you may end up kicking yourself. (High capacity magazine prices are likely to at least triple if the ban passes!) I’m often asked why I’m “such a fanatic” about buying so many spare magazines. Here it is in essence: Most modern guns–especially those made of stainless steel–will last two hundred or three hundred years, with typical civilian use. It is not inconceivable that some of your great-great-great-great grandchildren will inherit functional guns from your collection in the year 2300. They may still be in commission then. But unless you buy a lot of spare magazines, odds are that they will be inheriting guns with no magazines. Let’s face it. the magazine is the most fragile part of a modern firearm. Magazines get lost–especially in combat. Magazines get stepped on or otherwise dented. Magazines get broken. Magazines might also become a political target and get confiscated. So if you want a 300 year supply of magazines to match the potential 300 year useful life of a semi-auto rifle or pistol, then we are talking about a lot of magazines. Stock up!



Letter Re: Stocking Up on Augmentin–the Antibiotic of Choice

Jim:
I finally bit the bullet and bought 100 tablets of Augmentin (Co-Amoxiclav), the survivalist’s antibiotic of choice (or so I’m told). It was a tidy sum and unlike the rest of my supplies, it is not something that will store indefinitely (18 month expiration date, but I’d use it at twice that date as it is being stored in a refrigerator), nor is it something that I can rotate though and use like food. On the way back from the pharmacy I showed the kids what I’d gotten. “But dad, I thought you hated antibiotics.” my eldest said. “I don’t hate them, I just don’t like to use them unnecessarily.” I replied. I then went on to tell them about how penicillin was discovered and how bacteria and scientists are in a continual war of trying to outsmart each other. I then said “I’d rather have it..” and before I could finish, my two young sons said in unison “…and not need it than need it and not have it.” Does a dad proud. – SF in Hawaii



Letter Re: The Herd Instinct on Highways in TEOTWAWKI

As a professional road service mechanic I see all manner of stupid human tricks on a daily basis.
I live in the north east and find it sad but comical how people react to adverse road conditions. This has been a fairly mild winter for us Yet I have been caught in the tail end of three multi-car pileups due to snow/ice.
Now my service truck is prepared in the extreme tools, fuel, maps for my area of operations (AO), food, and water. So these were just minor delays for me until I plotted an alternative route.
Now cut to a major failure of the system. Katrina, accidents, grid lock, and no fuel. I would say most people would become pedestrians in the first 24 hours, and on road travel for anything less than a D-9 caterpillar tractor would be all but impossible.
I would use my self as an example with a loaded pack and overland travel I could cover about 24 miles in a 12 hour day this is about 160 miles in a week this is best case at 2 miles per hour and I am in fair shape. I would estimate that the masses would be able to manage less than a fourth of that. Leaving dedicated looters easy pickings for quite some time near the high way system.
People rise to their level of training and frankly american masses are little more than herd animals when the chips are down.
Look how they vote, how they live, and how the act en masse in [situations like Hurricane] Katrina. It is sad but true: Self reliance is indeed a rare quality.
If the Bible shows us nothing else human nature is slothful and evil. Fate favors the prepared. Semper Paratus, – Mike H.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Frequent blog content contributor Ben L. mentioned this article that confirms that the origin of H5N1 Asian Avian Flu was in southern China. Ben’s comment: “As if we didn’t already know. Hello, again, 1918.”

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Ben L. also recommends a site with some of the collected essays of Ed Harris (of “Ed’s Red” bore cleaner fame.) Ben’s comment: on Ed’s essays: “[they] bustle with subsonic rifle loads, “minimalist” (my wording) firearms usage, bore-cleaning, sighting, old-time gun writers (Jack O’Connor, Townsend Whelen, etc.), and the like. Quite the relief from “Keeping up with the Jones’s”, re buying the most-expensive and the newest stuff on the market.” OBTW, it is notable that Ed Harris mentioned the gunsmithing services of John Taylor Machine company in Spangle, Washington (near Spokane). John Taylor has done several gunsmithing projects for me over the years. And he has also done a lot of work for The Pre-1899 Specialist (one of our advertisers.) Taylor specializes in re-boring and re-lining rifles and revolvers. I am amazed by the quality of work that John Taylor does, and his low prices.

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More than a dozen readers sent links to various news stories on this: The long-standing Washington DC gun ban has been struck down by the courts. Here is a link to the full text of the decision. Hooray!





Note from JWR:

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