Odds ‘n Sods:

I found this piece from Peter Schiff over at Gold-Eagle: The End Of Consumer Credit As We Know It
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It appears very likely that the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors will cut interest rates again at their upcoming meeting (Tuesday, December 11th). If it is a 50 basis point cut (or more), it could kick off another huge round of Dollar-dumping worldwide, and we might see the USD Index drop down into the 60s. Speaking of the Dollar’s continuing fall, RBS sent us this from The Economist: Losing faith in the greenback

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RBS also sent us a link to a recall from Gerber–not the baby food company, the knife company. The recall is for their Made-in-China “Exchange a Blade (EAB) models.

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Kudos to Mike F. for finding us some data from Brigham Young University that revises the shelf life estimates for many storage food for as long as 30 years: New Findings for Longer-Term Food Storage. Keep in mind that “life sustaining” is not synonymous with full nutritive value. So be sure supplement your food storage program with some double-encapsulated multivitamins and a plenty of sprouting seeds. (Fresh sprouts are an ideal source of essential vitamins.)

Note from JWR:

Today is the last day to take advantage of the 33% off sale price for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course with accompanying audio CD. The course is only occasionally sale priced, so don’t miss out. Place your order online before midnight, or if sending a check or PMO be sure to get your order postmarked with today’s date.

Letter Re: Preparedness for Less Than a Worst Case, From an Eastern Urbanite’s Perspective

Hello Jim,
I am very new reader of your blog and am just now starting to go through the archives. Based on what I’ve read so far, I commend you on putting together a useful, fact-intensive blog on “survivalism” (whatever that means), that isn’t geared towards loony, off-the-reservation, tinfoil hat-type readers, who believe that 9/11 was a plot masterminded by Halliburton.

That said, one problem I suspect I will have with your blog is that you consistently seem to be preparing for an extreme, and more-or-less permanent, breakdown of society—or TEOTWAWKI, if you will. In one of your blog posts, you noted that the problem with preparing for TEOTWAWKI, is that “between now and then, you have your life to live.” This statement is particularly true for those of us who don’t live out West, don’t live in rural environments (let alone, gasp, urban east coast cities), have young children, drive a minivan, and enjoy otherwise the soft, latte-sipping lifestyles of Yuppiedom in the second Golden Age of American wealth.

My family and I fall into that category to a great deal. Don’t get me wrong: I e-ticketed most of my courses at Gunsite, so I’m no head-in-the sand sheeple. And I’m a pretty capable empty hand fighter. But I also grew up in the suburbs and didn’t exactly spend my youth learning to trap, fish, hunt, or plant seeds. I am married to a lovely wife who has no interest in learning to run a carbine, and we have a young daughter who prevents us from grabbing bug-out rucks and heading off to the bush for two weeks. In any event, if we ever managed to actually get from our 30th floor apartment in Manhattan to the bush, I’m not sure we’d know what to do.

The point I’m making is that there are a lot of people like us—people who live in cities, who don’t feel in the least bit at home in the outdoors, who aren’t going to learn about land nav or plotting azimuths, who aren’t going to buy a bug-out retreat in the country that is going to lie empty 52 weeks a year, and who are basically screwed if TEOTWAWKI actually and truly arrives.

Barring TEOTWAWKI, it seems to me that we are infinitely more likely to face moderately scary scenarios, like Hurricane Katrina and necessary urban evacuation, some urban 1970s style civil disturbance but nothing like Mogadishu, high-intensity individual criminal acts, a low-order terrorist event nearby and the accompanying panic, or some other situation shy of the worst case scenario.

We urbanites can prepare for those events, while not being entirely distracted from our workaday “ordinary” lives, or dedicating ourselves to trying to get off-the-grid. I certainly have made some attempts to prepare. For example, I have no doubt that we’re in the 99th percentile of Manhattan preparedness by virtue of the fact that we own:

– a well maintained and fueled Honda CRV with GPS, local region street maps, XM radio (for news), an empty 5 gallon gas can, and various vehicle repair tools
– a (legally permitted) pistol and shotgun, and enough ammunition for a firefight and reload under civilian ROEs
– $4,000 in cash
– a week of MREs and water, full rations
– a PVS-14 [night vision] monocular
– soft body armor
– basic camping equipment
– various tools like a good knife, a pry bar, Surefire lights, chemlights, paracord, etc.
– a fully stocked medical kit, 30 days of scrip drugs, and a copy of “Medicine for the Outdoors”
– personal hygiene gear
– a roll of 1mm poly sheeting and a ton of 100 mph tape
– full face respirators and disposable N100 masks
– GMRS radios, shortwave radio, a hand crank radio
– a ton of batteries
– a USB key and a 500 GB backup drive with all our important information
– 1 box of critical paper documents
– clothing suitable for the seasons
– baby stuff

Most of this gear is boxed, labeled, and stored in a single closet that we’ve dedicated to SHTF equipment. The other stuff (car, guns, cash, key documents, etc.) could be policed up in 10 minutes, and is written down on a checklist. If we had to, I reckon we could shelter in place for a week, or we could bug out in an hour (assuming, of course, Manhattan was not totally gridlocked).

I’d be very interested in your thoughts about what urbanites should be doing to prepare for bad times, given the restrictions of space, limited knowledge of/interest in outdoorsman skills, “Yuppie” lifestyle constraints, etc. Thanks. – D.C.

JWR Replies: For someone that lives on Manhattan Island, you are definitely quite well-prepared!

Some preparedness upgrades that I’d recommend for you:

1.) Pre-positioning some supplies stored with friends or relatives, or perhaps in a commercial storage space, at least 150 miles out of the city, on your intended “Get Out of Dodge” route. (For that dreaded “worst case.”)

2.) Adding a rifle to your firearms battery. With New York City’s semi-auto and magazine restrictions, you might consider a .308 Bolt action with either a small detachable magazine, or perhaps a non-detachable magazine. A Steyr Scout would be a good choice. Some semi-auto rifles that might be approved include top-loading M1 Garands and FN49s. (No doubt easier if you are a member of a CMP-associated shooting club.) If you can’t get permit approval for any modern rifles, then there is a handy exemption for long guns “manufactured prior to 1894 and replicas which are not designed to fire fixed ammunition, or for which fixed ammunition is not commercially available.” You might consider a pre-1894 production Winchester Model 1876 or 1886 in an obsolete caliber such as .40-60 or .45-90. (See my FAQ on pre-1899 cartridge guns for details. Be sure to select rifles with excellent bores and nice mechanical condition.

3.) A small photovoltaic panel for recharging your flashlights, radios, and night vision gear batteries.(Along with a 300+ Amp Hour 12 VDC “Jump Pack” (such as JCWhitney.com‘s item # ZX265545) and 12 VDC “DC to DC” battery charging trays and the various requisite cords.)

4.) A supply of antibiotics.

5.) Consult your local fire code, and store the maximum legally-allowable quantity of extra gasoline, assuming you have a safe place to store it. (I realize that most Manhattanites have their cars stored commercially with no additional storage space, and it can be a 20 minute car-juggling exercise just to get your hands on your car, depending on how “deep” you are parked.) If extra gas will be stored in your vehicle, then be sure to get one or more Explosafe brand fuel cans, and strap them down securely so that they will maintain their integrity in the even of a vehicle collision. You might consider upgrading to a mid-size 4WD SUV (such as an E85-compatible Ford Explorer) and have it fitted with an auxiliary roof rack where you can carry extra gas cans. (Again, I realize that most Manhattan parking garages have height limitations, but do your best.)

Letter Re: Preparedness While on Business Travel–What to Pack

Jim,
I’m a frequent flyer and I enjoyed the article by LP on what to consider bringing on business travel [“Preparedness While on Business Travel –What to Pack“]. Here are some additional ideas:

Water – I carry an empty bicycle type water bottle through security and fill it at a drinking fountain before my flight. This keeps you hydrated during your flight and from having to use the water glasses in your hotel room. (FYI – they don’t really clean those glasses.)

Food – I carry 4-6 Cliff [“sports energy” type candy] bars in my laptop bag and my checked luggage. These are dual purpose and can be used anytime there is a need for calories. (like when your stuck on the bloody tarmac for 3 hours) Store, eat and rotate these just like you would your storage food at home. They come in lots of great flavors and can be found at most grocery and drug stores. Look for them [when they are on sale] under $1 and stock up.

Clothing – This is a tough one that I have I hard time abiding by, but I’ll expand on what LP said in his article. On the plane, wear clothing appropriate for your “mission” and the climate you are traveling to, near, or across. It may be 75 degrees F at home, but if your flying to Toronto in the Winter, you should consider wearing some warm weather gear on the flight. If you rely on packed clothing, remember that if your plane is forced down, or if you have a runway mishap, you will be forced to leave the plane without any of your luggage. This happened to me personally a few years back when my plane skidded off the runway in a snow storm. We were evacuated via the slides and loaded on buses and taken to an airport that was essentially closed where we were told that we couldn’t get our luggage until after the “crash” investigation was completed. Fortunately, I did get my luggage promptly the next morning, but it doesn’t take TSHTF thinking to imagine what might go wrong in a scenario where you are trusting the airline to deliver your luggage. So, even if your only mission is to make it to your sales call that next day…. be prepared.

Transportation – If you are forced to travel home without a vehicle, consider finding a bike before you try to walk home. Urban locations are packed full of pawnshops and Wally Marts that sell very inexpensive bikes. I’m a cyclist, so I have an advantage here, but I would think that even the most inexperienced cyclist would make better time, and be more comfortable, on a bike, then hiking cross country. Even if you have a rental car, you might want to get a bike too, and put it in the trunk. You might not make it home on that last tank of gas and I wouldn’t want to be waiting for days in a gas line.

Tech – Download the free Google Maps application for your phone. It provides great maps, traffic, and sat images. I also just read that it can be used to fix your location.
Keep a backup of your emergency phone numbers, personal and financial records with you, encrypted on a USB drive. If something happens at home and your family needs info, you may need to access it from your location. – RR

Letter Re: Reactions to Preparedness Course

Hello Jim,
I have been reading SurvivalBlog for a year or more, and have thought about buying the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. When I saw it go on sale for 33% off, I thought more seriously about it, but still procrastinated. This morning I saw that the sale had been extended until December 3, that really got me thinking, but I still hesitated. I sat down to lunch a little while ago and was interrupted by a Jehovah’s Witness that handed me a pamphlet telling me to prepare for the End Of The World As We Know It. That did it. I just sent in my order for the course. I can take a hint! Thanks, – M.A.B., Burlington, Texas

Odds ‘n Sods:

The folks at Ready Made Resources mentioned that they are now down to their last 90 bottles of Polar Pure. Because this product uses iodine crystals (which have been deemed a methamphetamine “precursor chemical” by the DEA), once the small remaining supplies have sold out, there will be no more Polar Pure produced in the US. This is your last chance to stock up, folks! Note that because of the short supply, Polar Pure is no longer listed in the Ready Made Resources online catalog. There is a limit of five bottles per customer. To order, call: 1(800) 627-3809. You must mention that you are a SurvivalBlog reader when you call–this is an exclusive offer.

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Don’t miss the article that Tim P. sent us: New subtype of Ebola suspected in Uganda. If a new Ebola mutation were be easily transmissible (not just through blood contact), it could conceivably start a pandemic that would eclipse the Black Death.

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Hundreds of SurvivalBlog readers bought handheld MURS band radios from Rob at $49 MURS Radios, back when he was one of our advertisers. He stopped advertising only because he could no longer find a supply of the used Kenwood MURS transceivers. Well, now Rob is back in operation, offering brand new, factory fresh, Kaito KA1102 PLL Dual Conversion AM/FM/SW receivers with full factory warranty. Each comes with three AA NiMH rechargeable batteries, wall charger, manual, stereo earbuds, suede carrying case, and an external wire antenna, for $69 each. Buy two and the price drops to just $65 each. Shipping is $9.50 via US Priority Mail for up to two radios. Rob mentioned “I am ordering these radios in batches so if my stock runs out, I will have another batch within a few days. By doing this I can keep my overhead low and the price stays low. These radios are quite compact–small enough to store in an ammo can for EMP protection.” This deal is only being offered to SurvivalBlog readers. Details, reviews, and photo at: AffordableShortwaves.com

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Matt in Texas sent us a link to some commentary by Peak Oil guru James Howard Kunstler: The Last Days of the United States Dollar

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"In general, the art of government consists of taking as much money as possible from one party of the citizens to give to the other." – Voltaire (1764)

Note from JWR:

The extended 33% off sale for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course ends tomorrow. Be sure to place your order online or have it postmarked by midnight Monday, December 3rd.

Three Letters Re: Choosing a BOV

Hello Jim, et al,
Reading Choosing a BOV by “Brian B in Iraq”, there are a few inaccuracies that I should mention. Some of the statements are definitely subjective, but I’ll leave those alone and just deal with the factual stuff:
Regarding this statement: “These “first generation” Cummins trucks used a Bosch rotary injection pump (called a VE pump)….” This is incorrect. The First Generation trucks used, and use, the P7100 Injection Pump. The “Bosch pump” is the VP44, used in the Second Generation trucks. There’s a huge difference between the systems, and I’m not going to go into that, since it’s a complete article by itself. Suffice to say that the author seems to have reversed the information.

Regarding this statement: “The timing gear cover on the front of the motor uses dowel pins to line up the cover when being installed. Unfortunately, in some cases this dowel pin can vibrate and back out of their spot falling down through the timing gear case causing lots of damage before ending up in the oil pan.” Again, incorrect. The dowel pin (usually called the “KDP” or “Killer Dowel Pin”) aligns the gear housing, not the timing gear cover. It does have a tendency on some engines to back out, fall into the gearset, and jam between the gear and gear housing, cracking the housing and giving [the engine] a lovely oil leak. [Preventing this is] a very simple fix to deal with, and is most commonly a problem that occurs on the 12 Valve engines, but the 24 Valve engines are most definitely not immune to it.
Regarding this statement: ” The engine coolant should be a greenish color…” The author is ignoring, or not aware, of current antifreeze formulations that are required by newer engines (heck, even my 2001 ISB Cummins uses them) such as Dexcool, which is an orange color. Some people mistake it for rust, but orange is the normal color. Note too, that there are untinted antifreeze formulations out there.

Other items in the article are minor, but these are the ones that jumped out at me.
As to my personal knowledge, it comes from owning a 1985 Suburban with an 2001 Cummins ISB and extensive modifications, older Dodge 12 Valves, a M35A2 2-1/2 ton with the LDT in it, various Kubota diesel engines, the early GM diesel, Cat, DDs, et cetera. All of these vehicles, plus plenty more, have had all the work done by yours truly. Gearheads never quit! Thanks for the site! – Czechsix

 

Mr. Rawles:

I’m not a chronic nit-picker, but there are many errors in the post written by Brian B in Iraq – titled “Choosing a BOV.”
This can be misleading to someone seeking information on the subject. He certainly includes a lot of good information, but some of the errors need some repair.
I’ve been a diesel mechanic and owner for 40 years and own over 30 diesel trucks and SUVs. I worked on, and drove many when new. Here are some citations from Brian’s post – and my replies.
Brian wrote: “Indirect injection systems spray the fuel into a prechamber where the combustion process begins. This prechamber is also the location of the glow-plugs for help starting the truck in cold climates. This is a very inefficient but durable design. Direct injection systems spray the fuel directly into the cylinder where combustion occurs. This is a much more reliable and efficient system.”
My reply: No, IDI is not very inefficient. Often, it comes to a 5-15% difference, but sometimes there is none. Some direct-injected diesels are less efficient than some indirect-injected diesels. Many of the newest diesels out now, for model year 2008 offer the worst fuel mileage ever – and they are using state-of-the-art combustion chambers and fuel-injection-systems. The new direct-injected Dodges and Chevys have tested at 13 MPG overall mileage, and the new direct-injected Ford at 10 MPG. Going back to the early 1980s – many indirect-injected Chevy diesels averaged 16 MPG and Fords 13 MPG.

Brian wrote: “For those of us who have decided on a diesel powered vehicle, you’re now faced with choosing from three different manufacturers. GM, Ford, and Dodge.”
My reply: No, that’s not the case if looking for older vehicles – which seems the be the main point of the original post. Isuzu turbo-diesel Troopers, International Harvester turbo-diesel Scouts are certainly still to be found. I own several. Also, smaller rigs e.g. Isuzu PUP 4WD trucks with 2.2 diesels, Chevy LUV 4WD with 2.2.diesels. Chevy S10 diesel trucks, Ford Ranger with Mazda 2.2 diesels, Toyota diesel trucks, etc. Also a lot of little Chevy 4WD Trackers that have been converted to 1.6 Volkswagen diesels – a real easy swap – but not factory made like the rest. Also very popular are 1/2 ton trucks with Cummins or Isuzu 3.9 liter diesels installed. Many companies now offering the conversion-service. This results in a 1/2 ton 4WD truck that can get close to 30 MPG highway, and over 20 MPG around town. In Europe, the same swap is very popular with Land Rovers, Range Rovers, and Toyota Land Cruisers.

Brian wrote: “GM, for a brief time, installed diesel engines in their half ton trucks, but they are rare and hard to find.”
I find them all over, and 1/2 ton GM diesel trucks were never rare. All the Oldsmobile 5.7 diesels in the 70s Chevys and GMCs were 1/2 ton but the engines were terrible. [That changed.] Starting in 1982 with the Detroit Diesel-designed 6.2, GMC and Chevy sold thousands of 1/2 ton K5 diesel Blazers, 1/2 ton C10 and K10 diesel pickups, 1/2 G10 diesel vans, and 1/2 C10, K10, and V10 1/2 ton diesel Suburbans. The US Army bought 24,000 1/2 ton diesel Blazers in 1984 [and designated them CUCVs], and more later on. GM sold over 10,000 civilian diesel 1/2-ton Blazers in 1982 along with 1/2-ton pickups, Suburbans, etc., and continued to sell them until 1991 when sales dropped off to 92 for Blazers. In 1988, Chevy came out with a new generation 1/2 ton truck with the 6.2 diesel using a new body style, serpentine belt system, and independent front axle. The heavier trucks were not changed at that time, nor were the Blazers or Suburbans. During the 1990s, GMC and Chevy sold 1/2-ton trucks, Blazers, etc. with the 6.5 diesels.

Brian wrote: “A turbo will give you more power and better mileage so if you can find a turbo charged motor that’s the route to go.”
My reply: No, not true with all. A turbo raises effective compression ratio – and – enables an engine to burn more fuel and make more power. With most turbo diesels driven on the road, the result is less fuel mileage and more power. Years back, turbochargers were more commonly referred to as “altitude compensators” and were used to restore power at high altitudes – not make more power a lower altitudes. A diesel with no turbo loses 1% of its power and fuel efficiency for every 328 feet it’s driven above sea-level.

Brian wrote: The older mid-80’s trucks will likely have a 4-speed manual or 3-speed automatic, none of which have an overdrive gear to save on fuel consumption.
My reply: Again, not true with all. All GMC and Chevy 1/2 ton diesels if equipped with automatics had a .7 overdrive via the 700R4 transmission with lock-up torque converter. For standard shift, all the 1/2 ton diesels were available with the New Process 833 four-speed manual with overdrive. I own four of them. Later , around 1988, GM offered NV3500 five-speed manuals with overdrive in the 1/2 ton trucks.

Brian wrote: “The GM trucks and Suburban’s also had one additional limiting factor, the front independent suspension, which improved ride quality and handling substantially, but the tradeoff is off-road capability and the ease with which you can install a lift kit on the vehicle.”
My reply: No, not true with many. All the GMs had solid front axles until 1988. Then, only the 1/2 trucks went to independent. The 3/4 and 1 ton trucks, as well as all the Blazers and Suburbans kept the solid front axles until the 1990s.Brian wrote about Ford diesels: “by 1994 a 5-speed manual was standard and a 4-speed automatic was optional. These trucks are pretty bulletproof and maintenance friendly and get marginal fuel mileage. A 4×4 3/4 ton 7.3L turbocharged truck will likely get around 15 mpg average and go 200,000 miles between overhauls”
My reply: Yes, they were rugged trucks except the fairly new Ford four-speed automatic overdrive – the E40D. It was prone to problems – very expensive ones and still is unless it receives many updates and improvements.
Brian wrote: “Beginning in 1989 Dodge began installing a 12-valve 5.9L I6 diesel produced by Cummins with mechanical direct injection. In 1991, Dodge added a turbo charger and intercooler as standard equipment”|
My reply: No, the turbo was not added in 1991. All the Dodge trucks with Cummins diesels were turbocharged since the first year – around 1989. Dodge did sell 1/2 ton and 3/4 ton trucks for one year in 1978 with a Japanese Mitsubishi 6 cylinder diesels – but that is something completely different. That engine was 243 cubic inches, i.e. 3.9 liters.

Brian wrote about the Dodge diesels: “The 1994 to 1998 trucks are probably the most sought after trucks. A typical 1/2 ton 4×4 truck with 5-speed transmission and 3.55 axle ratio will get 20-22 mpg and these trucks regularly go 300,000 miles before major work needs to be done.”
My reply: Dodge never -ever – made or sold a 1/2 truck with a Cummins 5.9 diesel. Also, Brian mentioned earlier the reasons to stay away from independent front axles. The 1989 to 1993 Dodges have solid front axles, and the later 3/4 ton models he refers to here have independent front axles. The older trucks get just as good fuel mileage as the newer ones and often bring more money if found in good shape.
Brian also wrote: “Unless you are really squared away and have the finances to allow it, many of us simply can not afford a dedicated BOV in addition to our regular daily-use vehicle.”
My reply: With the money I see many people spend these days on dinners, vacations, etc., I find it hard to believe that someone serious about this matter – cannot afford $500- $2000 for an extra vehicle as a project – and/or an emergency-use vehicle. If you have no mechanical skills – then you are subject to either paying a lot of money to someone who may – or may not be worth it. Or, pay more for a vehicle in better shape. That being said, I find many diesel 4WDs, in good running condition in the $1,000 price-range or less. School districts often sell Chevy 4WD diesel Suburbans in good running condition for $250-$500. I just bought a 1991 for $225. – John in Central New York.

Jim,

I have been going through the BOV dilemma myself with the size of my family I can not just have one vehicle. So what I have done is rebuilt my 1 ton Chevy crew cab 4X4 in which I have sunk a great deal of money in it but it is nearly bulletproof (all but the windows anyway). The place that rebuilt my Chevy crew cab is USA6x6.com they have great shop rates ($35 per hour) and they do a great job. My large BOV is now a 6X6 that can also be run in more fuel-efficient 2×4 mode. It has a military surplus multi-fuel engine engine that can burn just about anything: gas, diesel, biodiesel, WVO, JP-4, kerosene, perhaps even turpentine. It has 2-1?2 ton axles and brakes, and many other extras. It has a hitch for a 5th wheel (flat bed) trailer which I have stocked for Bugout at all times. My wife has an Isuzu Rodeo that I know that many of you said was a bad choice, but for the money and with the testing that I have put it through, this is [still] the secondary BOV that I have chosen for my wife. It is very kid friendly, four wheel drive, and we got the flex fuel version which means that it will burn E85 Ethanol fuel. This also has a small trailer that has my home made power plant on it. Our third trailer [assuming I have the chance to pre-position or make two trips to my retreat] is my camping trailer. It [is ia “Toy Hauler” style trailer that] can accommodate two ATVs, tool boxes, fuel and water barrels and so on.

Now, as for routes not only should you have roads picked out but also possible some off-road routes by mapping the possible detours. This is made easier by making some friends with the farmers [at key points on your route. For example, I live in the Portland-Vancouver area and my retreat is in Idaho. I have flour main road routes but I also have several back off-road detours and farming and ranching friends that wouldn’t mind if I use their gates.

Just about everything that Brian B. in Iraq said was correct except tires I would use the 37” tire because you can get those in Kevlar and there are many run-flat systems that can be used for that size. If you go with smaller or larger there are not that many options. – CDR

Six More Letters Re: New-Found Respect for .223 as a Potential Man Stopper

Note from JWR: The string is starting to degenerate into one of those endlessly-mired “Ford Versus Chevy” or “Revolver Versus Automatic” debates, so this will likely be the last batch of letters that I post on this topic.

Hey Jim:
The .223 versus.308 [debate] is interesting. I think that several factors should be examined when selecting a cartridge and weapon. Military and police snipers shoot .308 or bigger. Why? Killing power. all the hype about .223 boils down to this. It is a varmint round meant to shoot things under 50 pounds. Jeff Cooper described the controversy very succinctly. a SWAT team in Alexandria Louisiana found out about stopping power the hard way. Which brings up the next point. The SWAT team could not penetrate a federal housing project steel door with their .223 weapons. All of the comments on .223 out performing .308 are wrong. That SWAT team now carries your weapon of choice, the [.308] FAL. Also, if .223 was all that great, why is the military fielding more .308 weapons than before? And why did the Special Forces community invent the 6.8 mm SPC if they loved the .223 so much? The .223 was designed to be used for varmints on four legs and two wings not two-legged ones. People forget that a rifle is not a death ray. You need all the stopping power you can effectively handle. You also need the versatility of a cartridge that penetrates cover, which the .223 does not as the rounds are designed to expand violently. There was a [Discovery Channel] television show that compared the effectiveness of.223 to that of 7.62x 39mm. On paper and in a clean sterile environment, that M16 and .223 look superior. But after examination of the rounds in combat the 7.62 x 39 was superior. I agree that the .223 is good for what it was meant to be used for, a varmint gun. Also, I will keep a .223 Galil in my battery just because it uses our military forces’ cartridge and may be around if ammo is in short supply. But, it is very far from my mind as a primary or secondary combat rifle cartridge. – Bret

 

James:

AVL wrote in praise of the .223, “…it bears repeating, any wound over 2″ deep has a very high likelihood of being fatal.” I’m sorry, but I couldn’t let this one go by. That statement is utterly false Following the infamous Miami/Dade shootout with Platt and Madix, the FBI has done extensive testing and found the minimum penetration requirement for a given round to be effective. It is 12″
(30.48cm) in 10% ballistic gelatin, not 2″ as AVL suggests. The 12″ minimum is agreed to by the International Wound Ballistics Association (IWBA) as well. This is exactly way you don’t use [an instantaneously-expanding] varmint round against humans:

He went on to state: “With this in mind, even explosive varmint bullets will penetrate this deep, most likely tearing through soft body armor up to 500 yards.” The main kill method for bullets, clubs, and rocks is not penetration, it’s energy transfer.” Wrong again! Energy transfer actually has little to do with incapacitation. I suggest reading the following online sources:
Firearms Tactical
BT Ammo Labs
Tactical Forums
Regards, – Krunch

 

JWR,
In case some of your readers missed the reference in Michael Z. Williamson’s letter, the info available in the Ammo Oracle reference is well worth the time reading. All AR15 owners/shooters and potential owners/shooters should read and digest this info, it gives invaluable info regarding the capabilities and limitations of the 5.56/.223 round. It is a long read but well worth the time. Good stuff!
Regards, Keith in Texas

 

Jim,
Nice ammo dialogue. I am reminded of the old domestic giant engined muscle car versus slick handling foreign sports car arguments of the 1970s. As Bonehead reminded us, survivalists are not infantrymen. I would guess that the lighter/smaller third of our population will find the .223 much more user friendly and therefore effective in a sustained engagement. I also don’t see how many folk can properly practice with .308 at current ammo prices. I would rather be accurate than be Macho. – Bruce F.

 

Jim:
Re: [AVL’s comment] “… even explosive varmint bullets will penetrate this deep, likely tearing through soft body armor up to 500 yards.” That is laughable. I have no doubt that lightweight varmint bullets would be devastating against an unarmored person at close distance…but at 500 yards, with a 5.56×45? You might as well be shooting buckshot, IMO, at least then you might hit an unarmored place. Controllability in full auto? That is a non issue – we [aren’t he military so we] don’t work that way. Too much [expense] to buy one, too much to feed one, and too wasteful in the long run.

Lots of cover here in the northwest and I’ll take a 308 for it’s versatility and power. If things were to ever get close, in a situation where many people would grab an M4, I’ll take my 7.62×39 AK – it has enough bullet IMO and I don’t have to worry about a short barreled 5.56 “underperforming”. I think it is very informative that the military is looking at calibers from 6.5mm to .30 as possible replacement for the 5.56, no calibers smaller…hmm.

I hope we do see a compromise in the future, I think one exists. Given the constraints of the M16 platform the 6.8 SPC is spectacular and with a new platform the 7×46 in a moderate loading might be ideal.

As far as medics treating 5.56 wounds goes – why are our medics treating 5.56 wounds? Because those we shot with 5.56 and were not hurt really badly–left to fight another day would be my guess. No doubt the little 5.56 can get the job done – with the right load but larger calibers offer more flexibility and a larger margin for error.
Keep up the good work! – A. Friendly

 

Sir:
As I’ve read the interesting and informative debates here, on .223 vs .308 vs 7.62×39, I can’t help but think we’re falling into what Jeff Cooper would call PII: Preoccupation with Inconsequential Increments. Terminal ballistics is only one consideration, among many, and when the differences in that one metric are marginal, you look at other factors for your decision.
For example, do you buy a $70,000 car if it is only 10% better than a $30,000 car? Not unless you’re independently wealthy. Why? Because the $40,000 price difference is an opportunity cost; it represents $40,000 of other goods and services you now can’t buy. It is in this context that I view firearms: they fulfill a survival role, and as such, should be cost effective. Money spent on gold-plating firearms is money not spent on other preps.
To many of us, this debate is moot: we’ve already made our choices of platforms and calibers. We bought our .308 milsurp back when it was $150/case. But what if I were starting out all over again, with no legacy arsenal? How would I select? I would define the mission that my firearms would fulfill, and find the best-for-the-money solution, without undue overlap.
What would I need? I need: handgun; defensive carbine; and, depending on my area, a longer range solution. I need them all to “get the job done” without soaking up too much money. I also need to look at the reality of defensive gunfights: most people are not going to be able to take careful aim and make one surgical shot after another. You need something easy to shoot, with reasonable capacity, rugged and light. You also need to afford enough ammo for training and practice, as well as to stockpile.
For this reason, I exclude MBRs in .308: at $600 per case, .308 is no longer a serious option for those starting out. The .308 is analogous to the $70,000 car: yeah, it might be a little better than the others, but the cost effectiveness isn’t there. I follow a similar rationale for handguns: .45ACP and .40 [S&W] might be slightly better stoppers than 9mm (though there really isn’t any evidence of this), but not enough to justify the large price difference in ammo. The bottom line reality is that all the basic intermediate powered rifle and “service caliber” handgun rounds will get the job done within the limits of most people’s ability to hit anything under pressure. Hence, here is my advice for those starting out:

Handgun = Glock 19 or Glock 17. At least 10 spare magazines. Holster and mag carrier. 5,000 rounds FMJ 9mm for practice. 500 rounds premium hollow point for self defense. Minimum of two weekend training classes. Total cost about $2500.

Carbine = AK47. At least 10 spare magazines. Shoulder-style mag/dump pouch. 5,000 rounds 7.62×39 Wolf ammo for training and also actual use. Minimum one weekend training class. Total cost about $2200.

Affordable plinking/practice = any rifle in .22 Long Rifle: bolt, lever, or semi-automatic. 10,000 rounds .22LR. Advantage Arms .22LR conversion kit for the Glock. Total cost about $700.

Long distance = scoped bolt action in .308 or .30-06 (a used Savage provides excellent value, for example). 500 rounds match level ammo. Remember: we’re looking for usable minute-of-torso shots at reasonable distance, not match trophies. Total cost about $1,000.

If you have any extra money, buy an extra Glock and an extra AK47.

This covers all essential firearms needs. I consider a shotgun a niche weapon, whose role the carbine adequately covers. Shotgun is nice to have, not must-have.
I invite readers to calculate similar solutions for .308 MBR-based arsenals, and decide if the ballistics value-add justifies ammo that costs three times as much as 7.62×39. – DG in Philadelphia

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Florida Guy” sent us an article that clearly warns that the recession bellwether is starting to bah loudly:  Sears profit plunges 99 percent

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More bad news for the dollar as the UAE gets ready to dump it. (A hat tip to L.W. for send us that.)

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Eric S. suggested this article from Der Spiegel: Is Atomic Radiation as Dangerous as We Thought?

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Thanks to Hawaiian K. for sending this article from Harper’s: Six Questions for Chris Whalen on our speculation-based economy and the 2008 elections. This guy is a mainstream banking and political analyst, and he is predicting: “The next president, whoever it is, may be dealing with a 1930s-style financial crisis from the first day in office.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Behold, the eye of the Lord [is] upon them that fear him, upon them that hope in his mercy;
To deliver their soul from death, and to keep them alive in famine." – Psalm 33:18-19 (KJV)

Notes from JWR:

Congrats to LP, the winner of the latest round of the SurvivalBlog nonfiction writing contest. His article “Preparedness While on Business Travel –What to Pack” wins the grand prize: four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $2,000!)

Second prize goes to Paul B. for his article “Building a Scout Rifle on a Budget”. His prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing.

Honorable Mention awards go to “Jerry the Generator Guy” for his article “Home/Retreat Power Generator Noise Reduction” and to Nathaniel for his article “Homeschooling During the Crunch”. They will both receive complimentary copies of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse.”

Note to the prize winners: Please send me an e-mail to let me know the snail mail addresses where you’d like your prizes sent.

Round 14 of the writing contest begins today, and ends on January 31st. The following is the first article that will be considered in the judging for Round 14:

Western Washington — A Retreat Potential and Disaster Assessment, by B.H.

I am writing to you at length today about Western Washington and its retreat potential and Assessment of disaster scenarios. Last year I made a career move that required us to move to Western Washington from Eastern Washington. We moved into what is considered the South Sound area of Western Washington (WWA) this area includes the State capital of Olympia and its bedroom communities of Tumwater and Lacey. Lacey and South East Olympia border the “Argonne Forest” of Fort Lewis. On a side note the 3rd Stryker Brigade is starting to rotate back home—Great job to you all and were glad to have you home on American soil!

Let me take a moment to describe some important geographic details about WWA. Imagine a vertical strip of land 60 miles wide and bordered along the north/south axis by ocean and mountains. The entire WWA is riddled with rivers running East to West from the Cascade Mountains into Puget Sound or directly into the Pacific Ocean. Starting in King County the population center expands outward to the North and South with heavy concentrations in Pierce(South) and Snohomish (North) and East into the cities of Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland and Issaquah. Interstate 90 runs directly through these cities and stops directly next to Qwest Stadium (Seahawks). Running North/South directly through WWA is Interstate 5 (“I-5”) which at times is 8 lanes wide to just two lanes in Lewis and Cowlitz Counties.
I have spent one year driving almost all of WWA for my job and I am convinced that WWA is not in anyway viable for retreat potential and at best would be a death trap during any Disaster. The main two reasons are 1) Population/Culture and 2) Nodes of Transportation/Infrastructure. I have found it best to describe and discuss these blended topics rather than individual subjects. I’m sure what I’m about to discuss may be quite redundant to most SurvivalBlog readers but what is new information is the application to the specific region called WWA or Puget Sound.

The first point of concern is and always should be size of population and without being too redundant you can imagine the jar of marbles exercise being applied to Seattle area and it’s obvious that no truly rural area truly exists in Western Washington. The golden horde numbers well over 2 million people just in the Puget Sound area. The greatest concern is that the majority of these people are left-wing big government liberals. The Seattle or “West-Side” culture as called by the Eastern Washington (Eastsiders) is very decadent or metropolitan lifestyle. The average Sounder relies heavily upon morning lattes, delivered sushi for lunch and fast food for dinner so the kids can get to soccer practice. It’s a decadent lifestyle but frail and unsustainable. This coastal community relies heavily upon government interference and actually tends to vote socialist in every election. In fact, I predict the socialist’s will kill gun shows in Washington in the 2008 legislative session since they control both houses and the governor’s mansion. They may also ban .50 caliber rifles if they push hard enough.

When you drive the I-5 corridor you get to notice lots of similarities in the average driver. The average Seattleite drives a Subaru and/or hybrid auto. Most cars have bumper stickers that reflect the overall socialist thread of the population. The most predominate are “Free Tibet”, “Al Gore for President” and the usual “Bush-hating, anti-war, I’m a coward let’s give up- why can’t we just group hug” bumper stickers. The most appalling I’ve seen is one pledging allegiance to the UN. It took a lot of effort not to run that guy off the road and hang him as a traitor.

If I had to summarize the culture of the average West-sider I would have to say they are socialist, nanny-stators who think it is they’re duty and obligation to use government to force people into living their lives the way the liberal sees fit. No property rights, no gun rights just what is best for the collective good. They won’t be happy until we are all walking or riding bikes and digging for grubs so “Mother Earth” won’t be plagued with the human parasite.

The second point of concern is node of transportation/infrastructure. Most people think of rain when they think of Seattle. Rain and runoff go hand in hand. As moist pacific air moves inland the Cascade mountain range forces the clouds up which squeezes the rain out of the clouds. This is the reason Seattle gets so much precipitation and Eastern Washington is dry and arid. All the rain runs down and drains back into Puget Sound or the Ocean via dozens of rivers. You can’t drive more than 20 minutes going North or South on I-5 without having to cross a bridge. There is water everywhere. This leads to concentrated traffic flow on all North South arterials and since the Mountains only allow a few East-West passages through mountain passes. All traffic flow in Western Washington is overly concentrated.

Also added into the equation is the state politics over the last two decades. Liberal democrats have obstructed common sense growth and infrastructure planning and building. The result is growth management bordering on the criminal when it came to adding on new infrastructure and roadwork projects. No new lanes have been added to the I-5 corridor in over 10 years. Some projects to add additional lanes are nearly complete but it is too little, too late. The population growth due to Microsoft, Boeing and a blockbuster economy similar to Silicon Valley has put the carrying capacity of current roads way below what is necessary. Not to mention the cost of living is 20% higher than Eastern Washington and real estate over inflated to double the cost of Eastern Washington.

The results are catastrophic even on most average of days. I have seen traffic at a dead stop at 2 PM on a Tuesday because someone got a flat tire and had pulled over to change the flat. Our Northbound traffic had slowed to a stop and Southbound traffic was slowed to a crawl just because people wanted to see what was going on—which was absolutely nothing. I don’t think a vehicle with a full tank of gas would make it 100 miles during an evacuation scenario or crises. I fill up when leaving the South Sound and it takes me almost two hours to go North to I-90 just to get started going East.

In closing, I could go on for days with examples of how bad it is. But the only conclusion is that Western Washington is a death trap when it comes to evacuating. I would like to hear from some readers about potential enclaves in the “rural” parts of the Olympic Peninsula or far southwestern sections about potential retreat locations. I will concede that the heavy timber growth and easy access to water and wildlife could lead to favorable retreat locations but only if road access is cut-off or the population is on foot and not in vehicles.

The year that I have spent here has convinced me to move back to the Intermountain West and commute to WWA for work only. Which means I am now forced to set up alternate evac routes and caches to get over the Cascades and to home/retreat in case of an emergency. Time to go re-check my Bug Out Bag.

Jim, thank you again for the opportunity to add to the discussion on your blog. I have been a long time reader; 10 Cent Challenge subscriber, and [content] contributor and I look forward to many more years of learning from you and your readers.

JWR Adds: Any SurvivalBlog readers that live in Western Washington and that have plans to “Get Out of Dodge ” to a retreat in the eastern half of the state (or beyond, to northern Idaho or western Montana) should make several alternate route plans, and practice driving them. Crossing the Cascades in winter can be dicey, even in “normal” times. Roughly 26,000 vehicles a day travel the Snoqualmie Pass route. But during a crisis, the Snoqualmie Pass bottleneck may very well turn into a death trap. Without a lot of study, here are some tentative suggestions:

Plan A, for the sake of speed and simplicity should be I-90, assuming good weather and that you can get on the road ahead of the Golden Horde. Plan B might be to drive south and parallel the Columbia River Gorge, on the north shore. Plan C would be to take one of the smaller pass roads (such as White Pass and Stevens Pass), assuming good weather. Many of these are closed during winter months. Plan D might be to take surface roads, a car/passenger ferry, or a privately owned boat north, then make your way east by 4WD pickup or SUV through lightly-populated British Columbia and Alberta, and then drop back down into the States once you are safely far enough east. Because of Canada’s restrictive gun laws, this would only be an option if you have nearly all of your guns, ammo, and gear pre-positioned at your retreat. You might be able to carry a flare gun, edged weapons, impact weapons (such as a baseball bat) and road flares (when lit, these make great “stay away” intimidators), but probably not much more. (OBTW, as I often tell my consulting clients, in the event of a search, “dual use” items must be found in appropriate context by law enforcement officials. For example, your flare gun and flare cartridges should be stored in the same dufflebag as your nautical charts and tide tables. And your baseball bat should be carried with a baseball mitt looped around one end, and stowed alongside a couple of softballs.) Traveling lightly-armed would be a calculated risk. But if it is winter the Snoqualmie Pass is jammed, and the other passes are closed for the season, then it might be worth the risk.