Letter Re: Property Taxes and Hyperinflation

Dear Mr. Rawles,
It’s been on my mind off-and-on since I read your novel “Patriots”, when the Grays sent in a property tax payment to avoid losing their retreat to tax delinquency. It’s always annoyed me that a landowner has to pay the government to keep land he has bought and paid for. That said, what would keep a local government, starved for cash in just such a situation as “The Crunch”, to raise the taxes on local properties until no-one could pay them? If a landowner pre-paid his taxes for, say, two years in advance, what would stop the powers that be from just saying that you didn’t pay enough because we’ve just doubled the taxes, and then taking your well-stocked and cared-for home? I suppose there’s nothing that could, and that most towns would not accept a two-year payment on property taxes anyway, but I wanted to put the idea out there. Thanks again for all you do! – R. in New Hampshire

JWR Replies: I had mentioned pre-paying taxes in the novel only because I had foreseen (and still foresee) a hyperinflationary situation where both the repudiation of the paper currency and collapse of government seemed imminent. If the currency would soon become worthless, it would be worth the effort, and it could certainly do no harm–assuming that the same amount of currency would only buy one of two meals worth of food. In the aftermath of a collapse, being able to show a receipt for pre-payment of taxes would at least demonstrate the good faith intention to pay the property tax.

In less severe circumstances where local governments can continue to operate in a hyperinflationary economy, it is impossible to rule out inflation indexing of property taxes. Depending on circumstances that cold result in delinquency judgments and property seizures. If this starts to happen too frequently, this might inspire local uprisings by a discontented citizenry. The recent absurdities in Zimbabwe illustrates one potential outcome. (In Zimbabwe, Mugabe’s government just started issuing a $10 Million Dollar bill, which as of this month might buy you a hamburger and an Africola. But if you wait a couple of weeks the same purchase might require $20 Million Zimbabwean dollars.)

During a hyperinflation the crucial factor will be whether or not you have cash income–preferably inflation indexed–with which you can pay your taxes. If you lose your job or on a fixed income (such as a pension), there may very well come a day when you cannot afford to buy food, much less pay your taxes.

Odds ‘n Sods:

I found this “must read” piece by economist Jim Willie, posted over at Gold-Eagle: Gold & Math On A Napkin

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Eric mentioned a great article on the looming derivatives and hedge fund implosion in The Boston Globe: The black box economy. One tidbit from the article: “Despite the anxiety, nobody is stockpiling canned goods just yet.” Oh, yeah? Speak for yourself. Meanwhile, we also read: Crisis Grips European Hedge Funds. This is just the beginning folks. I’ve warned you before about hedge funds suspending redemptions, and hedge fund collapses. If you have any money in hedge funds, get it out, post haste. I am very concerned that the multi-trillion dollar derivatives bubble is about to pop. If and when it does, it will wipe out nearly all of the hedge funds–even those that have been managed quite conservatively.

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RBS suggested this “Gumballs” YouTube clip from a lecture on immigration demographics.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Individuality is the aim of political liberty. By leaving to the citizen as much freedom of action and of being as comports with order and the rights of others, the institutions render him truly a free man. He is left to pursue his means of happiness in his own manner.” – James Fenimore Cooper (1789-1851) The American Democrat, 1838

Note from JWR:

If you ever post to any of the Internet forums that discuss survival or preparedness topics, then please mention SurvivalBlog.com when you do. Thanks!

Letter Re: Advice for a Canadian with a “Just One Gun” Budget

Hello SurvivalBlog:
I am a Canadian 21 year-old living in rural Nova Scotia looking at purchasing my first gun. I will only have enough money for one in the near future (with ammo stockpiles).
I’ve just got my license (we need ’em in Canada, unfortunately), and have $1,000 to spend [on the gun and ammunition, combined]. My budget is extremely limited, but I think that a gun is the most important priority for survival situations. We have a self-sufficient garden, clean water, well, fuel, wood-stoves, and have potato-like Jerusalem Artichokes growing wild all around us.
I am looking at a Marlin .30-30. Good for hunting. Good for self defense. Good for bug out.
Do you have a better recommendation? Thanks, – Matthew in Nova Scotia

JWR Replies: Instead of the Marlin .30-30, I would recommend a replica .303 Lee-Enfield “Jungle Carbine” (replica of the Number 5, Mark I) or an Ishapore 2A1 carbine (The latter is a 1960s Indian arsenal final evolution of the Enfield, in 7.62mm NATO)..Your choice of caliber should be based on whichever is more popular in your corner of Canada.

Lee-Enfield bolt actions are much faster to reload than a tubular-magazine lever action, either via stripper clips or loaded spare magazines. Both .303 and 7.62mm NATO are ballistically superior to .30-30, and surplus ammo for these calibers bought in bulk is much less expensive than commercial .30-30 soft nose ammunition.

One qualifying note on “Jungle Carbines”: From what I have read, less than 20% of the #5 Enfields on the market are genuine originals that were made during WWII with the lightened receivers. Those are real collectibles that fetch $600+. Most of the so-called “Enfield Jungle Carbines” are actually just commercially-rebuilt earlier model Enfields, on standard receivers. (Typically a No. 1 Mk III with a bobbed barrel, shortened wood, and a replica #5 flash hider and #5 buttpad installed. ) The notorious Sam Cummings (of Interarms) and other importers reworked tens of thousands of these in the 1960s and 1970s.) They now run $250 to $375 at US gun shows, which is not considerably more than a standard Enfield. I would suspect they could be found at similar prices in Canada.

From a practical shooting standpoint, the replica #5s are actually preferable to the scarce original #5s, which had a problem with “wandering zero”. You could zero in one of these, only to have the zero change while shooting it. According to SurvivalBlog reader B.A.G., this problem was traced to the lightening cuts that were made in the #5 receiver. Short of replacing the lightened receiver, there is no way to fix it. The replicas do not have lightened receivers, so this is not an issue. Again, they will never have the same collector value as an original, but they are more accurate shooters.

I have owned two of these replica #5s, and they both had decent accuracy (2″ groups at 100 yards), with no symptoms of wandering zero. Their recoil is hefty, but quite bearable with a slip-over recoil pad.

OBTW, most of the Ishapore 2A1 carbines that you see are equipped the same US-made fake #5 flash hider. There were umpteen thousand of those flash hiders made.

If you have your heart set on a lever action, then consider finding a used Browning BLR (a box magazine-fed lever gun) chambered in .308 (or perhaps .30-06 if bears and moose are plentiful in your area) and at least a half dozen spare magazines. If possible, get the takedown variant, since these can be stowed in a backpack or suitcase. The BLR is much faster to reload than traditional tubular magazine lever action rifles.

Letter Re: I Told You So

Jim:
My pessimistic mentor in preparedness frequently says: “I hate being so d*mn right all the time!”
I can’t help but wonder if you share the sentiment. I’m beginning to do so!
The more I read the current news about market volatility, Peak Oil, and CCD the more I am reminded of the pieces I wrote and you published on SurvivalBlog months ago! The full texts are still available in your archives and the advice is still valid!
For new readers and to refresh the memory of others here are a few quotes pulled out of the late in 2006 and early 2007 pieces.

From November 3, 2006: How Long Until You Starve?
“ The lowly honey bee is the most prolific and productive pollinator of crops. It is actually threatened with extinction by a new wave of parasites and bee diseases. In the same way that “avian flu” endangers the global bird population (and to a lesser extent humans) bee diseases have the potential to destroy that essential link in the production of food for human consumption.“
“ Even changes in the market price of fuel affect the profitability of farming. If a farmer earns $1,000 per ton of food produced, but it will cost hundreds more in fuel costs next season, why would he plant the next crop?”
“ Some very intelligent people warn of an economic collapse on the scale of the Great Depression or worse. Hyper inflation is a reality in third world nations. It has happened in civilized and developed Europe several times in the last century as well. What if your paycheck loses 90% of its buying power in a month’s time? What if the markets lose faith in the imaginary value of currency? Such things have happened repeatedly in the past. If the store shelves are full but a can of soup costs $100, how long can you eat? How long until rioting empties the stores and stops distribution?”
What can you do?
#1 Store a food and water reserve to see you through the initial crisis.
A year’s supply for your family is not an unreasonable amount. FIVE years of the shelf stable basics for your family would not be too much.
#2 Open pollinated “heirloom” seeds and the ability to raise your own crops (at least “gardening”) are part of the answer. Buy your seeds now, practice planting, harvesting, storing the food, AND saving your own seeds to plant for the next season.
#3 Don’t overlook unconventional sources of food. With a little research you should be able to recognize wild forage plants and prepare them for your table.
#4 If keeping domestic livestock or poultry is an option that you would like to explore, I highly recommend Countryside and Small Stock Journal.
#5 If keeping small stock isn’t practical you may resort to foraging for wild game or fishing.

From April 2, 2007 Top Ten Suggestions for Stocking Up:
“… the time to stock up is before a shortage occurs…we are living at the tail end of a historic period of plenty.”
“” Whether you feel that the price hikes we are seeing are due to Peak Oil, developing nations gobbling up natural resources, or active war zones sucking in all available oil and ammunition, you can not deny that prices (especially for fuel and metals) have increased significantly over the past few years. … it will become far worse.
“ When you factor in the very real risks of an economic crisis (derivatives, real estate, etc), the loss of honeybees from the pollination cycle, … you can see the threat of significant price increases for goods with a post-SHTF value.”
So my top ten recommended specific purchases are below.
1. Food Grains – rice, oatmeal, beans, wheat, corn – most of us consume far more than we produce. Food grains are cheap especially if bought in bulk and when properly stored can last for years. Regardless of the crisis, food will be needed. It just makes sense to keep several months of food on hand especially in light of the potential shortages that could result from the die off of pollinators….
2. Matches –
3. If you can still find reasonably priced ammunition … buy it.
4. Effective defense weapons – (note on 1-25-08- that the elections are less than a year away!)
5. High Capacity magazines – (note on 1-25-08 that the elections are closer every day!)
6. Over the Counter Medicines –
7. Hygiene products –
8. Oils of every kind –
9. Salt –
10. Honey – the bees are dying.

– Mr. Yankee

Letter Re: Deciphering HK Magazine Date Codes

Mr. Rawles,
I’m confused about the two-letter date codes that are stamped on many [Heckler und Koch] HK [firearms] magazines. How does the date code system work? I’m not asking you this because I’m a collector that’s into arcana or minutiae. It is because I live in [New York,] a state that restricts civilian ownership of mags that were made after September of 1994.

By the way, I’ve also got some 40 round [aluminum] alloy HK93 magazines with no markings whatsoever on the mag body, but they do have followers with “78” mold marks. What is the story on those magazines? Are they HK factory made? (The guy that sold them to me said that they were HK-made for some secret contract before 1980. Was he BSing me?) Thanks, – Perry Noid

JWR Replies: First, for the sake of SurvivalBlog’s overseas readers, let me present a bit of clarification on magazine legalities: The Federal “high capacity” (11+ round) magazine ban was in effect on the US and possessions only from September of 1994 to September of 2004, when it thankfully became null and void because of a 10 year “sunset” clause. But New York has its own state law, which effectively extended the Federal ban for New York residents. Hence, they are not allowed to possess any 11+ round magzine made after 9/1994. A similar situation exists in California, where any civilian caught with a 11+ round magazine that they did not own on Dec. 31, 1999 could be charged with a felony. (My California pioneer ancestors are undoubtedly rolling in their graves.)

According to the knowledgeable folks at the HKPRO Board, the following is true for HK magazines, but not for receivers, frames, or pistol slides:

IR =1993
IE=1994
IS=1995
IK=1996
IO=1997
ID=1998
II=1999
OR=2000
NP=2001
AC=2002 (assumption)
AD=2003 (assumption)
AE=2004 (assumption)
AF=2005 (assumption)
AG=2006 (assumption)
AH=2007 (assumption)
AI=2008 (assumption)

The date coding of HK pistol slides has always been much more straightforward: A=0 B=1 C=2 D=3 E=4 F=5 G=6 H=7 I=8 K=9. (So a slide marked “KD” was made in 1993.)

Apparently, starting in 2002, HK switched to harmonizing the slide, frame, and magazine date coding systems, but as yet this has not been confirmed by officials at HK or HK-USA.

Those 40 round alloy HK93 magazines with no date stamps that you asked about were made for the Anastasio Somoza Debayle government of Nicaragua (pre-Sandinista.) These were for a “semi-sterile” contract. No company markings were used because the Somoza government was in disfavor internationally at the time. The Somoza government fell to the Sandinista revolutionaries in 1979–before a large number of those HK93 magazines could be delivered, so they were eventually diverted to the civilian market.

Letter Re: Gauging Interest in Dakota Alert MURS Radios

Hi Jim,
I am looking to gauge interest from your readers for the Dakota Alert MURS Base and Handheld radios. If there is enough interest in a
special group purchase, I can offer the M538-BS MURS base station for $69 (plus shipping) and the M538-HT MURS hand held for $74 (plus shipping). Interested readers can e-mail me if they would like to be part of this group buy. (see the MURS Radio web site.) Thanks! – Rob at Affordable Shortwaves

Odds ‘n Sods:

Wired News is reporting that an Illinois startup is claiming they can make ethanol from most any organic material for around $1 per gallon. Coskata, backed by General Motors and several other investors, uses a process that is bacteria based instead of some of the other available methods. The bacteria processes organic material that is fed into the reactor and secretes ethanol as a waste product. A hat tip to Eric for sending us this link.

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Pete found us this one: Gold production halted amid South African energy crisis

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Ten-finger Fingerprint Scan To Enter U.S.A.

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Cody Lundin has a new 512-page survival manual out, titled “When All H*ll Breaks Loose: Stuff You Need to Know When Disaster Strikes”. He’s an interesting character and the book is very useful. Safecastle is giving away the book (normally $19.95 ) to new paid members in their crisis preparedness Buyers Club. (“Safecastle Royal”.) Those who are already members can either purchase the book at 20% off or get it free with a qualifying $150 purchase in the Safecastle online store.

Four Letters Re: A Honeybee CCD Disaster Soon?–Bee Prepared!

James,
Here is a link to a somewhat less pessimistic article on CCD, the current state of affairs with bees, and a likely possible cause. I agree that the consequences of a loss of Apis mellifera would be a severe blow, but I think the reality is not (yet?) quite so dire as a recently linked article predicted.
Best Regards, – MP

 

Jim;
Your comments miss the fact that solitary bees, such as the Orchard Mason bee, are roughly 10 times more effective [per capita] as pollinators than honeybees, and are plentiful in most locales. Bumblebees ain’t bad at it, either. I’ve relied on these species for years, in an environment where there are very few wild honeybees.
Of course, this doesn’t change the fact that commercial agriculture would be largely wiped out without honeybees, but at least it should save you and me from having to dress up in bee costumes and go flitting from flower to flower. – Charley S.

 

Sir:
I have just recently found your site and I am starting to read you regularly. I find that I agree with 99.99% of what you have to say so far. I have seen our own small bee hive wiped out in the last few years, and we decided to buy and work with Mason Bees. There is no honey production but they (the mason bees) are pollinating little machines. It might be something for your readers to look into – fyreman

Jim,
You wrote: “Food storage. Increase the depth of your family’s food storage program. Heretofore, I had recommended a two year supply. I am now recommending a four year supply.”

Now that you are recommending four years of storage, would you please be more specific in what you recommend? Are you referring to a freeze dried, wheats, beans and rice, dehydrated, etc. type storage approach? I’m assuming a long term approach is the only way to go when trying to store for four years. Thanks, – Russ in Georgia

JWR Replies: For long term storage foods, I generally recommend storing bulk wheat, rice, and beans in 5 or 6 gallon food grade buckets with oxygen absorbing packets.

Given the likelihood of honey shortages for the foreseeable future, I also recommend getting a 10 year supply of honey. Because powdered milk tends to go rancid, I recommend that you buy commercially-packed nonfat dry milk in #10 (one gallon) nitrogen-packed steel cans. (Available from Ready Made Resources) Oils and fats are best stored in the form of canned butter (available from Best Prices Storable Foods) and frozen olive oil. (The plastic bottles work fine, but don’t try to freeze glass bottles of oil!)

For details on both short term and long term food storage, I recommend Alan T. Hagan’s Food Storage FAQ, as well as my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course.

In addition to long term storage food, you might also want some conveniently packaged “Get Out of Dodge” type foods, such as retort-packaged MREs. For information on MRE storage, see the MRE Information Page.

Letter Re: Some Information on LDS Canneries

Jim–
The LDS Bishop Storehouse/Cannery list of foods available shows a storage life of 30 years for most properly packaged foods. The Cannery Food Commodities sheet includes this statement: “For longer-term storage, avoid teaching people to ‘store what you eat and eat what you store’.”
Think about it: in money terms, you don’t want to dip into the principle. The same is true for emergency food storage.

Here’s some sample prices as of December 22, 2007:
Hard red wheat $4.75 for a 25# bag (you’ll transfer the wheat to a food-grade bucket; for how-to, check SurvivalBlog archives)
Hard white wheat $6.25 for a 25# bag (ditto) (by the way, four 25# bags will fit into three 5 gallon buckets)
Black beans $4.72 for a #10 can (already treated and sealed)
Regular oats $2.00 for a #10 can (ditto)
If you buy 6 #10 cans (can be mixed), they’ll provide a box, plus two plastic lids for the cans.
There are more than 16 items on the list besides the above (including powdered milk, rice, sugar, apple slices, carrots, macaroni,onions, potato flakes, spaghetti, cocoa). Not all on the list have a shelf life of 30 years, but all are available treated in sealed cans.
Of course you should purchase small quantities from your local grocery store and try out cooked wheat berries, rolled oats, white beans, etc on your family to see if they will tolerate the stuff. Maybe even add it to your regular meals here and there so a sudden transition won’t add to the stress caused by a disaster (as taught in the “Rawles Gets You Ready” course).

Folks who aren’t members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints can buy these dry-pack food from the LDS Cannery, which is associated with the Bishop Storehouse. Be sure you ask for the Cannery because only Mormons are served from the Storehouse part of the Storehouse/Cannery complex.
Folks who aren’t members of the LDS Church can also volunteer to work in the Cannery and buy part of the wet-pack products they help can.

One great feature of volunteering (usually in 2 or 4 hour-shifts) and then buying is that you will know the food you can (chili, for example) is absolutely fresh. And you will also know the food is prepared and canned hygienically. Those who train and guide the volunteers make sure you are comfortable with the tasks you’ll be doing. It’s actually not only very educational, but also a lot of fun. Check to see what age limit there is on the teens you may want to bring with you.

When you call, ask what is being canned and when (the food to be canned depends on availability–think fruit in the fall, for example). Then find out what day/time slots are open that will fit your schedule. You can choose to volunteer one time only, or you can volunteer now and then, or you can set yourself up with an ongoing schedule if you wish. But you do need to pre-schedule. The staff will be very helpful.
It may be possible to can your own foods if you have enough to make it worthwhile. In that case, of course, you will pay for the cans and lids.
If you want to dry-pack your own food at home, current prices are $0.58 for a #10 can and $0.13 for a lid. A case to hold 6 #10 cans is $0.57.
Oxygen absorber packets are $.09 each.

You can find if a storehouse is near you by checking your phonebook White pages under The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints–look for the Bishop’s Storehouse listing; it will usually be right at or near the top of the LDS listings. If you don’t find a listing, call any of the listed Bishops; they all know where the nearest one is located. Even if a storehouse/cannery is some distance away, it may be worth the trip if you are buying in quantity.

Prior to Y2K, the LDS Canneries were mobbed with non-LDS, so limits were imposed. In the event of another like situation, limits would no doubt be imposed again. So, now would be a good time to get acquainted with what’s available and do a shopping run.
Don’t worry about being invited to hear about the LDS Church. Nobody will even try to hand you a pamphlet.

The form you will complete for your purchase will ask for your “ward” and “stake”; just write-in “non-member”.
I hope this will be helpful. – Bob B.

Odds ‘n Sods:

US Home Prices Fell in 2007 for First Time in Decades

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Eric sent us this piece that squares nicely with my comments yesterday: Central Bankers Confront A New Inflation Calculus

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Richard G. sent a link to this recent front page Wall Street Journal article: In a World Short Of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made. Richard’s comment: “While the major media is starting to admit to peak oil, I was somewhat surprised that the WSJ would run this piece about stockpiling food, starting relocalization networks, storing gasoline and propane, buying and storing physical gold, growing gardens, using bikes and horses for transportation, and even relocating . They also have a three minute video interviewing Mr. Wissner on the WSJ.com web site.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Fear not: for I have redeemed thee, I have called thee by thy name; thou art mine. When thou pass through the waters, I will be with thee; and through the rivers, they shall not overflow thee: when thou walkest through the fire, thou shalt not be burned; neither shall the flame kindle upon thee.” – Isaiah 43:1-2

Note from JWR:

The five day arctic cold spell that dominated most of the intermountain west has come to an end. Our kids enjoyed the sunny skies and sledding, even though the daytime highs were around 15 degrees (Fahrenheit), and the nighttime lows were around -10 F. Our horse Money Pit looked woeful, with rings of frost around the eyes and a frosty chin each morning. The clear weather also provided some beautiful pinkish Alpenglühen on the peaks of The Unnamed Range of Mountains each evening, and some awe-inspiring golden glow at sunrise each morning–once with the full moon setting in the west right over a auric snowy peak.

The clear weather allowed us to make our semi-annual sojourn to COSTCO, where we did our best imitation of shoppers from the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. Seeing our big industrial flat cart heaped up with sacks of rice and cases of canned goods, a fellow shopper asked: “Do you have a restaurant?” I replied, “No, we have teenagers.”.

Now we are back to overcast, snow showers, and highs in the 30s, which is more typical for this time of year.