Letter Re: Advice on Post-WTSHTF Weather Forecasting and Barometers

Sir:
I just realized that if the Schumer impacts the oscillator that we won’t have a clue about upcoming weather without the National Weather Service. Being able to predict future weather will be very important for gardening, hay cutting, and on and on. What do you recommend? A barometer? Thx, – Barry

JWR Replies: A barometer is indeed the most important forecasting tool. Luckily, they are fairly easy to find in second hand stores. Make sure that you get one with a finely-gradated scale and with a proper elevation offset adjustment in the back. (If you live at high elevation–such as Colorado–be advised that not all barometers have adjustments that go that high!) If you want a new barometer, there are several models available from Wind & Weather (one of our affiliate advertisers). From now until the end of May, they have a special SurvivalBlog $15 discount on any purchase over $100. Use coupon code “WSAS”.

OBTW, be sure refer to the recent discussion in SurvivalBlog about do-it-yourself forecasting, including sky-reading.

Letter Re: Getting Physical with Silver Futures Contracts

Jim,
Congratulations on the continuing success of your blog site.

I think your readers would like some information regarding physical delivery of silver from futures contracts. I’ve never done this, or even known anyone who has, but it seems rational nowadays. One question I have is what type of mark or assay comes with, say, a 1,000 ounce delivery.

I also think many readers are interested in questions of how to plan “getting tangible” with their retirement accounts, by which I mean no paper. I know I have to think about this quite seriously. Felicitations, – Patrick (an American Ex-Pat in Asia)

JWR Replies: There are of course humorous apocryphal stories about a futures trader finding 100 “live lean hogs” left on his doorstep. But be advised that most futures and options markets are entirely “cash settled”, so you can’t take physical delivery even if you want to. Ask your broker if your particular market allows the alternative of physical delivery. Odds are that it doesn’t.

As for “getting physical” with retirement accounts, if you don’t want to take the tax and withdrawal penalty of cashing out, I strongly recommend rolling over IRA and 401(k) accounts into Gold American Eagle vault storage IRA accounts available through Swiss America Trading Corp. I have had one of these accounts since the early 1990s, starting when I first worked in the corporate world. At the time, my co-workers thought that I was crazy. But I had the last laugh, in the long run. In the Spring of 2000, when I worked as a technical writer for Oracle Corporation, I was buying one ounce Gold Eagles for my Gold IRA at around $290 per ounce. Meanwhile, many of my co-workers were enthusiastically buying Oracle stock at around $40 per share (split adjusted) through the employee stock purchase plan (ESPP). Oracle now sells for around $19.50 per share. But their loss is even worse when you consider inflation.

Letter Re: Using Dry Chlorine for Water Treatment

Jim::
To answer Steve W.’s question: “How much dry chlorine would be needed to make a one gallon batch of standard 5.25% chlorine bleach?”:

In the conversion of dry hypochlorite to liquid (bleach), since all the percentages are by weight, it is easy to calculate the amount needed to reconstitute 5.25% hypochlorite bleach. Since dry is about 55% active, it should be diluted roughly 10-fold by weight (one pound to 10 pounds water). So, you would need 8/10 pound or about 12 ounces per gallon of reconstituted liquid bleach. Then the standard formulas could be applied for the final mixing with water for sanitizing.

Safety Warning: Be very careful when mixing dry hypochlorite with water, add it slowly and watch for overheating and beware of splashing. Wearing goggles for eye protection is mandatory! Cheers. – JB in Nashville

Odds ‘n Sods:

Frank in Arizona wrote to ask me how much longer Front Sight’s “Get a Gun” training and gear package offer will still be available. From what I’ve heard, it won’t be very long, since Front Sight is running this promotion at near their cost. Don’t dawdle on this and miss out, folks! I can’t think of a better purpose for your upcoming Federal tax “economic stimulus” check. Those checks (for up to $1,200 per married couple) will be mailed out starting in May, so you might want to employ your credit card, in advance! If Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer only knew what you were planning to do with that check!

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Neil G. found this: Food Crisis Looms in Bangladesh.

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Reader David A. mentioned a new personal digital radiation monitor. It is the Ludlum’s Model 25. David notes: “The range for the Model 25 is .01mR/hr to 1999 R/hr, it is the size of a cell phone, making it perfect for anyone who wants to know when to evacuate or head to a shelter. There is a maximum allowed dose timer to 50R. The unit costs $495.”

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G-7 Signals Concern on Dollar’s Slide, Weaker Growth (Speaking of which, watch the US Dollar Index closely in coming weeks. As I’ve mentioned before, analysts note that 72 is currently the magic number. If the USD Index cannot hold 72, then we can expect more market turmoil, and substantially higher precious metals prices.)

Notes from JWR:

Today, after church, I plan to do some target shooting with my kids. I guess I’m just a conservative dinosaur, “clinging to guns and religion.”

Be sure to take a look at the many new listings at SurvivalRealty.com, particularly in Idaho and North Carolina.

Letter Re: Scottish Highland: The Ideal Choice for Survival Beef Cattle

Yesterday, as I sat up in the warm spring sunshine in one of our hilltop pastures watching a newborn Scottish Highland calf interact with its mother, my thoughts drifted back to all the reasons behind our initial decision to choose this breed ten years ago. Given our experience since then, I have to conclude that it was an excellent decision, and one which I think would benefit your readers.
We raise registered Scottish Highland cattle because we like the qualities of this breed over all others. Esthetically, they are impressive, with long, shaggy hair and sweeping horns. While those horns can be intimidating, as a breed they are gentle and intelligent (well, for cows…). For quality of beef we find them to be unmatched: Excellent flavor, very little fat, tender, and juicy. Highlands have demonstrably low levels of cholesterol, for those of us who need to be careful. Highlands are an old breed, the oldest registered breed, and have had their genetics left largely unchanged for the past several thousand years

While the aesthetics and taste are important, more desirable as a long-term source of food are the breed’s bovine characteristics. Most significant, in my mind, is how little care they require. These beasts are built for self reliance and independence. They are extremely resistant to diseases. Their thick coat and thick hide protect them from weather, insects, and injury. The long hair over their eyes provides a very welcome relief from flies in the summer. And those thick, lush, hairy hides make incredible rugs and bed-covers on cold winter nights. We do a lot of winter camping and stay toasty warm under one, with no sleeping bags needed.

Their calves are born small, so they rarely need assistance in birthing and they rarely lose a calf. To date we’ve never had to pull a calf, and our herd has numbered as many as 45.
Equally important is the breed’s ability to forage. Like any cow, they prefer lush grass in the summer, and hay in the winter. But in times of drought or blizzards, they will eat just about anything. In fact, some Highland owners rent out their cattle to folks who want to clear the briars and brush from their woods. These are tough, resilient animals. Another plus is that they don’t require great fencing (we don’t use any electric fence). They show little interest in getting out of their pasture. They will if the fence is down (e.g., when a tree has fallen over it), but they typically wander back in on their own.
A bonus for folks who live in or near wilderness areas are the horns. Though they never use the horns in their own dominance struggles (they merely push heads), the horns are formidable weapons against predators. When coyotes enter our pasture, the alarm is sounded, and the mommas form a circle, facing out, with their babies safely in the middle (like musk oxen). The coyotes steer a wide course around them. It’s an impressive sight.

Our cattle are raised as naturally as possible. They have free-range access to lush pastures and clear creek and spring water. They do not require and are given no commercial feed supplements of any kind (i.e., no need to worry about contamination from feed containing animal byproducts or unknown chemicals). They are not given growth hormones, or antibiotics as a feed supplement. They are completely grass fed except for small amounts of rolled corn used for training. Routine feeding of grain to cattle is a waste of money; it merely produces fat. And, research suggests that exclusively grass-fed beef contains elevated levels of conjugated linoleic acid (CLA), a natural anticarcinogen, and markedly lower saturated fat levels. Feedlot beef (which is what one gets in a supermarket) is not grass fed, and those cattle are given large quantities of grains and chemical feed supplements.

With advantages come disadvantages: Highlands are a slow-growing breed. While most commercial breeds go to market in a year and a half, Highlands take an extra year. The same is true of breeding age—Highlands are bred at age 2-1/2, while other breeds are done at age 1-1/2. This is why you don’t see huge herds of Highlands in the beef growing states. But countering this slower growth is the fact that Highlands will continue breeding well into their teens. An acquaintance of ours recently had a calf born to a 19-year-old cow.

In sum, I don’t believe there is a better choice of breed for folks who want to have some beef cattle around. We had Angus prior to the Highlands. There’s no comparison. These cattle are ideal for rugged wilderness areas with mountainous climates prone to severe storms. But they also do well in warmer climates, with breeders throughout the American South. Where to find them? There are breeders in nearly every state. Go online to the American Highland Cattle Association. When shopping, deal with folks who raise and sell beef cattle, as opposed to those interested in show animals. The latter will cost 2-4 times as much as the former. And they taste the same. – Jack A.

Letter Re: A Severe Storm Provides a Valuable Lesson

Hi Jim,
I’m a long time reader. I wanted to relate to you a recent experience I had, which may be of value to SurvivalBlog readers. I live in a state that is prone to tornados and severe weather. We recently had
a storm tear through our area, causing several million dollars in damage across much of the state, my neighborhood notwithstanding. My wife and I went to bed Wednesday evening, expecting only scattered thunderstorms. What we awoke to at 3:30am was much, much more than a thunderstorm. As I looked out our bedroom’s open window, I saw and heard wind and rain, the likes of which I’ve never witnessed in all my 45 years. I nudged my wife and simply said “closet”. Now, she knows her husband as the guy who, instead of going for shelter, he usually goes outside to observe and satisfy his unbridled curiosty. When she heard me say “closet”, she knew it was serious.

Within four minutes, we were hunkered down in the closet, with everything we needed, including our surplus Kevlar helmets (the wife no longer thinks I’m nuts for making that purchase). I thought we were going to lose the house.

We lost only trees and fences, but we learned a very valuable lesson. We were very ill prepared for that experience. Now, I pride myself on being one of the better prepared families in my neighborhood, if not the best prepared, but four minutes is unacceptable. We now have in place a setup that puts us in the closet with everything we need in under thirty seconds (assuming the cat can be efficiently herded).

This got me to thinking; What if we had to actually bug out and leave our home? Are we prepared? I know that I’m still extremely unprepared for such an event, so that plan is now underway.

My point is this. Never, ever, under any circumstances, should we underestimate the need to be prepared for an emergency. My experience that night could have been much worse (60 hours later we got our electric power back, but we were very well prepared to go very long lengths of time without power), so I was lucky this time. You’ve devoted your life to hammering this home for your readers, so I thank you, once again, for the wisdom you provide. Now, it has become very real for me to actually heed that wisdom and put it into practice. A year’s supply of food means nothing to me, if its scattered over a square mile of my neighborhood. Thanks, Jim, and thank you once again for SurvivalBlog.com. God Bless, – HHH

JWR Replies: Thanks for relating that experience. Anyone living in Hurricane or Tornado country should invest in a reinforced shelter, if it is financially feasible. Ideally, it should be designed to also serve as a security vault (“gun vault”) and as a fallout shelter. One of our advertisers, Safecastle, has extensive experience in building such shelters. These are usually-equipped with gun-vault type doors, that open inward. If you live in an area with a high water table, they can be constructed aboveground. If you can afford to build an entire house that is highly storm resistant, then you might consider building a monolithic dome home. One monolithic dome home contractor in the Midwest that I recommend is Bill Fraley of Global Dome Builders. Phone: (715) 926-3668.

Letter Re: Advice on Home School Curriculum Resources

Dear Editor:

We are fed up with the public schools. At the end of the current school year, we plan to pull our children out of public school and homeschool them. What curriculum do you recommend? Thanks, – W.J.

 

The Memsahib Replies: It is difficult to recommend just one brand or type of curriculum. There are many different learning styles as well different teaching styles. We really like using materials that have a Christian perspective such as . We use the Alpha Omega course books as our core curriculum. But, I also enjoy pulling in other resources to reinforce concepts, or for enrichment. We suggest that you join your local homeschooling group as soon as possible. Often homeschooling groups have used curriculum sales in May. You will have the chance to talk with the other parents and see first hand some of the materials that are out there. We can’t overemphasize the importance of getting plugged-in with other homeschoolers in your area as soon as possible. These groups will be an important resource for learning all the local opportunities for co-op classes, field trips, and social activities. They’ll also know the local school district and state requirements for homeschooling. They can be a real source of encouragement for new homeschoolers. (OBTW, for those of you who are using like us, please consider purchasing the curriculum using the link in our scrolling ad bar to support SurvivalBlog. Thanks!)

Odds ‘n Sods:

More fallout from the global liquidity crisis: GE Plunges as Profit Misses Estimates, Forecast Cut, and Airlines Face New Cash Challenge, and G7 Economic Powers Endorse Plan to Try to Avert Financial Crises. There will be far, far more fallout in the months to come, as the numerous industries and even national governments are starved for cash.

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Rick M. suggested an excellent article by attorney Ellen Brown: Credit Default Swaps: Derivative Disaster Du Jour. Her article keys in nicely with the background piece that I wrote more than two years ago: Derivatives–The Mystery Man Who’ll Break the Global Bank at Monte Carlo. I stand by what I wrote back then. Here is a snippet from my article: “The risks, in absolute terms, are incalculable. Don’t forget that directly or indirectly, central (“state”) banks and national governments themselves are now inextricably tied to the derivatives trading universe. They are not just “dabbling in derivatives”. Rather, they are in derivatives up to their necks. If and when the global derivatives bubble ever pops, it may topple not just trading companies like Goldman Sachs, or corporations like GM, Daimler-Chrysler, or RCA, but entire nations. I’m not kidding.”

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From The Jerusalem Post: UK Paper: Iran Building 6,000 Kilometer Range Missile.

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A reader sent me some photos of an automated parking garage used by a car factory in Germany. I was curious about the photos, so I confirmed their authenticity at Snopes. I just hope that this design never gets used for public parking garages. They’d strand a lot of motorists in the event of a power failure.

Notes from JWR:

We are pleased to welcome APack–our newest advertiser. They make excellent MRE-equivalent civilian storage foods.

Today we present another article for Round 16 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win two valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Worth up to $4,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 16 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Your Vehicle and TEOTWAWKI, by TD

I have seen some (sort of) like minded people who are actually driving around in brand new vehicles. This would not be so bad if they were even in the least bit mechanically inclined, but they’re not. So on top of, they can’t fix it themselves, they haven’t even begun to buy the extras they will need when the SHTF. I honestly think that if you can’t lift the hood of your car and name at least ten components, you are in over your head.

The first thing I learned was get a Chilton’s Manual for your year, make and model vehicle. Open it and look at it, take the time to actually read it. If your vehicle requires you to disconnect the transmission or pull the motor to give it a tune up, then you need to get a lot more than basic tools and spend at least three times the amount for parts that you would have to on an older vehicle.
On newer cars if you don’t maintain them, they will run badly or not at all (newer cars sensors or a clogged catalytic converter). Carburetors are easier to rebuild and repair then fuel injection units, shocks and struts are much easier in older cars and trucks, there is no fuel relay in older vehicles Those built before the mid-1970s have no computer on board and have little or no emissions control equipment, the list goes on.

I had brought up in an earlier submission the fact most people can barely check their oil in their cars and I think that this topic needs more. Your car isn’t going to run forever, it will not even make it a few months after TEOTWAWKI if it’s a newer vehicle and you have no clue. Minor problems turn into major repairs when people don’t know enough to even notice early warnings.

I drive nothing new, I prefer 1970s models (or older) to anything else on the road. Why you ask? Well first off, get into an accident in an older vehicle you see less damage to an older one than in a newer one. Newer cars and trucks are made differently. Some [have body panels that] are made of a plastic that will pop back out after an accident. Not bad right? Well not bad if the frame isn’t damaged, if it is then oh well, it gets repaired and the frame is usually weakened at that spot. With some cars and trucks the motor will drop and go under the car in a collision, then you need a new one and the body (they are made that way so you don’t end up with the motor in your lap) is still damaged. Older cars handle the abuse better and are more tolerant of missed oil changes and tune ups.

To set things up for your newer vehicle, just go to the dealer or a parts place and ask them for prices on: oil filters, O2 and other sensors, fuel filters (and how many your car has), starter, alternator, belts, hoses, distributor cap, wires, plugs, rotor and tranny filter, for starters. Then go ask your mechanic how many billable hours each of those items takes to replace (some will take about 1/3 of the time, others will take every minute of it). Then look at your Chilton’s Manual and see just what a pain it’s going to be and what specialty tools you need to buy. If your car needs the transmission unhooked while you work on some of this, then you need a tranny jack. Instead of a lift you may be able to use ramps, but be prepared it could even call for the use of a hoist.

Unless you have a fully stocked and capable garage at your retreat and you’re a mechanic, you need to buy an older vehicle. An older usable vehicle can cost as little as $500 and as much as $15,000. It really depends on what will suit your needs. A $500 dollar vehicle is going to need some work and the $15,000 one is asking people to look closer at you. Nondescript is what you need, something that will cause no one to notice you at all, not now or later.

Is there a certain type of vehicle in your area that seems more available? If there is then I would look at that one, because you will have the chance to buy parts and whole vehicles cheap. One of the vehicles I had as a kid I wish there was more of them still around, the Subaru Brat, cheap, easy, go anywhere and hard to kill, they are hard to find cheap now. Look at the local junk yards and see is they have parts for older vehicles (some only carry newer parts), that may be the biggest problem for some vehicles is the lack of good used parts. Call your local car and truck clubs there is no better way to get good deals on parts than from a member. Look in back yards as you go driving, you never know what you’ll see.

Once you decide on your retreat vehicle you should try to acquire: a parts car/truck, motor and tranny, rear and front ends, gears for them, heads and head gaskets, radiators, carbs, starters, alternators, rebuild kits, tune up parts, wheel bearings, calipers, brake lines, tire repair kit, extra rims and tires, valve stems, distributor shaft and bearings, soldering iron, solder, good hand tools, block and tackle or hoist, ramps, floor jack, line bender, breaker bar, air compressor or hand pump, multi meter and a few larger than normal sockets. Also if you need specialty tools get them now and learn how to use them. [JWR Adds: Most newer vehicles have electronic ignitions, but some of them can be retrofitted to a traditional coil and rotor. Ask your mechanic.]

Get your whole group out there and teach them the basics. If the person who does the major repairs is the only one that knows anything about the vehicles, what happens if they are not right there? As a woman, if I break down on the side of some road and can’t fix my vehicle quickly and on my own the next person who stops could be the wrong one and most states will not allow the police to help in any way except to call a tow truck. I have had to change tires, fix my headlights, run a rope from my throttle arm in through my window, drive on a rim, push my car after the drive shaft let go and sit on the radiator support to try to adjust the distributor after the bearings went bad, hold the shifter together after the bolt snapped (standard) and I can usually find a way to get me car home.

Even now I see people drive around unprepared for even the smallest emergency. Make sure that your car has: a medical bag, road flares, small [explosion proof] gas can, spare tire, jack and four-way lug wrench, flashlight, utility knife, chain, jumper cables, non-perishable snacks, water and some sort of weapon. Most states will not allow you to carry a loaded gun, so get a huge Maglite that can double as a weapon or keep a tire iron handy. The way things are today it is better to have it and not need it, then to need it and not have it.

Letter Re: Advice on the Most Versatile Bicycle for Schumeresque Scenarios

Mr. Rawles,
I need to snag bikes for my wife and myself. We are both young and relatively fit, but we live in [Washington,] DC and take [the] metro [subway system] everywhere. We [presently] don’t have bikes, and I have no knowledge about them. The [SurvivalBlog] section on guns was helpful, I was wondering if y’all had something on the most versatile bikes, by price point. Thanks. – Jordan H.

JWR Replies: These days, I generally recommend folding bicycles. Prices have come down substantially, so they are not much more expensive than standard bicycles.They are also just a s robust as most mountain bikes. The latest generation of folding bikes are quit versatile. When folded, they can fit in an apartment closet, or in the trunk of a car.And, depending on your local laws, when folded they can also be carried onboard most trains and busses. (Using an opaque carrying case seems to remove most objections.) The Montague Paratrooper bike is an excellent choice.

For Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.) purposes, you might want to get panniers and perhaps cargo trailers for both bikes. Detachable pannier bags can be kept pre-packed as G.O.O.D. kits, and clipped on very quickly.

Odds ‘n Sods:

I recently got an e-mail from reader Terrence G., who claimed that the national debt figure was “meaningless” because the Federal Government could merely “create” money, at will. But I have a dose of reality: That debt is real, it is increasingly held by foreigners, and debts must be repaid. Worst of all, it is growing at an alarming rate (See: The National Debt Clock.) OBTW, after you are done reading the rest of today’s blog, hit “reload” at that same site, and see how much debt our nation has accumulated in just those few minutes. Someday, our grandchildren will surely want to throttle us!

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You will recall that I predicted sharply higher municipal bond rates in 2008. Here is a news story from Alabama about the first of what I predict will be a wave of muni bond crises across the US. (A hat tip to DV for sending us the link.) OBTW, just wait until foreign holders of US Treasuries smell blood in the water and demand similarly high rates.

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Michael W. sent this article link: Survivalism Goes Mainstream As Middle Class And Wealthy Fear Breakdown Of Society

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The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) grows larger: Senate passes housing relief bill