Note from JWR:

After more than two years without a change, we recently increased our advertising rates by an average of 20%. The good news is that our readership has more than quadrupled in the past two years, so our advertisers are still gettng a real bargain. (Especially when you consider that some other blogs with readership of the same scale charge up to $1,500 for banner ad!)

When shopping for preparedness gear, please patronize our paid advertisers first. If they don’t have what you need, then check out our Affiliate advertisers, such as Nitro-Pak, Lehman’s, and Northern Tool . With any of our advertisers, please mention where you saw their ad. Thanks!

Time For Retreat Logistics Stage Two–The Soft Items

If you are a regular SurvivalBlog reader, the odds are that you already have the majority of your key logistics squared away, like food storage, tools, guns, communications gear. So now it is time to stock up on “soft” and perishable items. These include over the counter medications, vitamins, chemical light sticks, matches, paper products, cleansers, spices, liquid fuels, and so forth.

You need to exercise caution when stockpiling soft items, for several reasons:

1.) Shelf Life and Deterioration. Some items like pharmaceuticals, batteries, and chemical light sticks are best stored in a refrigerator. Keep in mind that items like matches are vulnerable to humidity. (BTW, do not store matches in Mason type glass jars! Resist the urge, or else you’ll inadvertently make a glass shrapnel bomb! Instead, use a vacuum sealer, such as the Tilia FoodSaver sealers sold by Ready Made Resources. This is also a great way to keep rubber bands (including elastrator bands) from deteriorating. Exposure to sunlight, or heat, or moisture can all be deleterious to soft goods.

2.) Bulkiness. Paper products like paper towels, toilet paper, and paper napkins are extremely bulky, per dollar value. If you have limited storage space then you will need to budget that space carefully.

3.) Flammability. You should think of your stored paper products as house fire tinder, and your stored liquid fuels as potential fire accelerants and explosives. One mistake that that I’ve heard mentioned is storing numerous gasoline cans at home, in an attached garage. Most garages have a hot water heater, often fired by natural gas or propane. Uh oh! Store gas cans, oil-based paint cans, and bulk lubricants only in a well-ventilated outbuilding that is well-removed from your residence. Be sure to check your state and local fire code for permissible limits.

4.) OPSEC risk. The aforementioned bulk of stored paper products also makes them obtrusive to casual observers. This present s an OPSEC risk. If you have 500 rolls of toilet paper and paper towels in your garage, someone is likely to notice. OBTW, one item that I’ve stored as a potential barter item is sheet plywood. Those extra plywood sheets, if properly positioned can keep prying eyes away from your stockpiles.

5.) Abundance-Inspired Waste. Human nature dictates that when something is scarce, it is used frugally, but when it is abundant, it tends to get used more wastefully. I’ve seen this happen with my children, in target practice with .22 rimfire ammunition. If they know that they have just 50 rounds apiece available for a shooting session, they make every shot count. But if there is a full “brick” of ammo sitting there, it soon starts to sound like a day at Knob Creek.

In his book The Alpha Strategy, John Pugsley mentioned some friends that “invested” in stocking their own home wine cellar. They determined that it would be less expensive to buy wine by the case. But they soon had so much wine that they got in the habit of having a bottle with dinner almost every evening. So even though the per-bottle cost decreased, their monthly expense on wine actually doubled! OBTW Pugsley’s The Alpha Strategy is highly recommended. It is available for free download, but I recommend also picking up a used copy, for reference. They are often available through Amazon.com for less than $5.

Letter Re: Don’t Delay Dental Work and Elective Surgery!

Mr. Rawles and Fellow SurvivalBlog Readers-
I am recovering today from having oral surgery yesterday. It was not a tooth that was in pain but one that could give me trouble at any inopportune time. As a family we have been getting all our dental, vision including extra glasses and contacts, and other various health concerns taken care of now. After everything hits the fan or even during this coming economic crisis, getting good medical care may be a challenge. I wouldn’t want to imagine having the dental work I had done yesterday performed as a “do it yourself” job. Don’t procrastinate getting even a chronic ingrown toenail fixed! Things will be hard enough without extra health concerns. – Mt. Momma

Letter Re: Implications of High Grain Prices for Livestock Owners — Stock Up!

Dear JWR,
The prices for wheat and soy and orchard grass crop seed have risen 40% in our region this spring. And that is the farm supply co-op pricing. The N and Phos. fertilizer is pretty well matching this increase. Lime is only 20% higher than last fall. Most of the larger crop farmers (200 acres or more) in our eastern central area (which 5 years ago used to be primarily tobacco fields) are now counting on a moderate to large profit in return because these edible cash crops are being currently negotiated and purchased in bulk to be shipped to China (soy) and Egypt (wheat). The corn crops grown locally are being sold for US bio-fuel production.

Heads up! If you have large farm animals and poultry, put up a one year reserve of feed grains and feed hay or fodder now, if you can find it for a reasonable bulk purchase price and get busy breaking ground on that fallow pasture land and start planting your own rotational plots of grasses for hay, forage and feed grains! I am perplexed to how many people are selling off completely or drastically reducing the numbers of their large farm animals now at a time that they should bare caution in their reflexive reactions. Consider that this may not be the best resolution as a result of the price increases of the grains.

This is the time to ride the grain increase out until they can become self sufficient in their own home grown supply and to stock up on seed. The prices will only get much higher in a year. If they can just hold out until their own grains come on line, the inflationary prices to come will make the value of those animals worth triple or quadruple their price in the short coming years. Trying to buy new livestock is not going to get cheaper either. Now is not the time to be selling off your extra edible or working farm animals. This is a time to hold and make yourselves busy as self sufficient farmers. We’re now in this for the long haul! Think for the long term future, not just for today. – KAF

Odds ‘n Sods:

RBS flagged this: Food Prices Soar as Farmers Bail on Corn.

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Horton suggested some good commentary by Aubie Baltin, posted over at Gold-Eagle: A Time for Reflection

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Ready Made Resources now sellsan inexpensive and lightweight solar oven that works quite well. The stove with shipping (in the US) is just $44.95

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Bill from Ohio kindly sent us a plethora of recent news article links related to the world’s now scant food supplies:

Food riots in Haiti: BBC article and YouTube video.

Rising prices around the world

Rice price hits Philippines poor

Asians hit by rice pinch

World food shortages to stay: riots at risk

India and Africa urge a re-think of biofuels

New Zealand food prices demand food strategy

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"We maintain [privately-owned] arms largely because we seek to prevent violence. Those that wish to disarm us do so that they may perpetrate it with impunity." – R. Murray

Notes from JWR:

Naish Piazza very graciously just sent me a double-helping of Front Sight course certificates. So the writer of the best non-fiction article for SurvivalBlog’s non-fiction writing contest will now win two of the valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificates. (So this top prize is now worth up to $4,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 16 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Here is the latest writing contest entry:

Working Dogs and Horses in Bug Out and Retreat Planning, by TD

I have adopted many animals over the years and come to realize that sometimes you do get great things for free, other times you get hurt. How do you pick the right animals for you and your family? Do you get an animal just to suit one purpose or do you get a mutt that will hopefully fit the bill? How do you choose the right one?

Dogs
For dogs, first talk to someone who has the breed of dog you are most interested in and find out about inherent defects and temperament problems. If you have kids or grandkids make sure the dogs are safe to have around them. Unless you get your dog trained, try not to get a very dominant breed, they will sometimes fight the alpha for the position and it can really damage both you and the dog. Remember the police departments stay away from females for patrol dog work for a reason–they do have a tendency to be flighty when in season. Decide early if you are going to alter or not, as when the grid goes down, you may lose the option.

A good dog, there are many, but not enough people that know how to pick the one that suits. I have seen many animals go to the shelter because they got too big, didn’t house break well, were hard to train, stubborn or was brought in and treated like a child, then along came a child and the dog got jealous. Many a hunting dog has been turned out due to being gun shy or lost due to poor training. Down here, some people have no clue where their coon hound is for days or weeks.

Remember that a pet is a pet and a working dog needs to be a working dog. No coddling, no sneaking treats. The family or group needs to be on board totally. It doesn’t take long to undo any training. Most states do have laws that might hinder your keeping your dog outside at all times, only suggestion is to build a really nice dog house that is insulated or move to a less oppressive state.
I have also learned that there is no replacing good training for any dog. Considering the link from S. Africa that was mentioned on the blog, it would be a good idea to train your dog not to take food from anyone but you. Not barking to reveal location, staying down until attacking, and hold and release are important now and later. If you want your guard dog to not get you sued now, you need to do bite work with an experienced trainer. You need them perimeter trained so they will not leave your property for anything unless you ask it. Protect your investment.

If you do not live full time at your retreat, make your animals bug out bags and make at least one trial run before the big day. Stock your retreat with dog food (watch the expiration dates, when dog food goes bad your dog will get sick and have the runs for days). You must also consider extra water for the animals, write down how much each animal drinks per day and that will give an idea of what to prepare. If you have three weeks of water for you, you need it for them too. If your dog stresses out, make sure you have a caloric supplement on hand. If they get car sick, give them motion sickness pills (made for humans, works on animals, too). Buy a muzzle, if the dog gets hurt you’ll be thankful you have one.

Your dog’s essentials: at least two leashes, crate, muzzle, nail clippers, food for the move, water for the move, collapsible bowls for food and water, first aid kit and medicines. Put index cards in your dog’s bug out bag, so that if it’s something less than TEOTWAWKI you can write down info on your dog and yourself, so if you get sent someplace other than your retreat, you will be able to get your dog back. This was a nightmare after hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and now we have serious problems with feral animals and the population in general, because owners failed to identify their dogs or themselves. We won’t even mention the ones left with little or no food and water because no one in Louisiana or Mississippi believed that it could happen (even though it had happened before, in 1918).

Horses
 Now for horses, if you think you’re going to need one in the future, the time to learn about them is now. The day in the life of a horse owner: 6 am and time to feed (2 sections of hay if no grass is available and grain if you need it), water and turn out (unless you have just pasture, in that case you need to check your horse over well to make sure he didn’t run himself through in the night), muck stalls. Been 8 weeks the horse needs a trim (unless you have a farrier close by, this means you do it), depending on where you live he may need new shoes. So you pick out all 4 hooves and get out the frog trimmer and the [hoof] rasp (a big file) and don’t trim too far or you’ll be walking for the next four or more weeks. Brushing your horse may seem like fun for him (it is) but it also gives you time to look him over for injuries or disease. If he has no cover he can get rain rot (fungus) and cause you to have to bathe him. Smell the hoof as you clean, if it smells funky it is hoof rot (thrush) and needs to be tended to (bleach mixture or Thrush X).

If you have never broken a horse to ride, don’t start when you’re 40, buy a well broken horse so you can learn more and not get killed in the process. Riding a green horse is more about the work you do on the ground, before you ever get on the horse. Breaking to ride isn’t just getting on and praying. It’s about trust and having the horse know you aren’t going to hurt him. Unless you’re huge you can’t bully a horse and not get hurt. One simple rule for horses is – once you have control of the head the body follows. John Lyons does a wonderful training seminar and it is available on DVDs, if you’re bent on going start to finish do it that way.

Make sure your horse ground ties (stops when the reins are dropped and stays), work him over plastic, use him to haul deer out of the woods and work him so that you can fire a gun near him. Do that by starting with a cap gun in the same pen as the horse after he sees it. Then work your way up. Do it until he acts as if it’s nothing with the cap gun, then move to a .22.

The horse should reside full time at your retreat or at a full care facility near it. The horse will probably weigh in at 1,000 pounds plus and not something you want to stress yourself or him over trying to move a huge distance when there is a problem. There are going to be a lot of people trying to get out or get in and to wait last minute with a large animal, is just asking for trouble.

A horse bug out bag is a tough one, hay for the ride and water, first aid kit with an extra halter and a few leads. Wrap his legs before you leave, so he won’t damage them in the trailer. Bring a good hunk of cloth because if it gets bad, cover the horses’ eyes and he will calm down. Make sure your retreat is stocked with hay and grain, medicines you may need and buckets. – TD

Letter Re: Cashing Out of a Retirement Fund and Buying a Retreat Without a Tax Bite?

Mr, Rawles,
Greeting from Kentucky. I read your page very often, and have been doing so even more so lately. I read the articles, and your concerns of what is going on, and what you think will happen in the future of this great country. I try to look around and see my daily routine with family, church, work and normal everyday activities and say “no, no this can’t be happening.” Just look around! Everybody is so oblivious, everything continues as it always has, I don’t see the worry on anybody’s faces, much less in their actions. So I keep trying to tell myself, it “won’t happen to me!” But deep in my heart, and with all the articles I have read here, and now these things/stories are starting to end up in the mainstream news if you watch for them, I can not fool myself any longer. I agree it is just around the corner.

I read your advice about getting into tangibles. I have tried very hard to save, and save, and be a investor for “the long haul”. I want to take out and invest in that piece of land somewhere, but how do I get my hard earned years of Army Flight Officer pay that I dutifully put away, and all the 401(k) items, and other investment tools liquidated to be able to invest in a retreat property without getting whacked by the tax man?

I no longer store away as much as I use to, but spend that available cash on other tangibles you have so often mentioned. Gold, silver, ammo, and other supplies that will be hard to get when it all goes. But my biggest purchase evades me because of the taxman shadow looming over me. I have three growing teenage kids, and a strong 20+ year marriage, I can’t just pack up and head for the hills. But I want to be prepared to do it. Any hint of some advice? Thanks, – Zed

JWR Replies: Life is full of compromises. If you plan on staying in Kentucky after your ETS (I assume that you are at Fort Campbell), then you might look for retreat-worthy properties in Montgomery County with shallow wells or better yet with gravity-fed spring water–but still in reasonable commute distance to your duty station.

In today’s dead real estate market, sellers are desperate, so you might get a seller to agree to sell you a purchase option on a house on acreage with a monthly lease. This agreement would credit the lease payments to the purchase price. This protects you three ways: 1.) If the dollar starts to inflate, you will have a locked-in purchase price, and 2.) If you move (PCS, or decide to settle elsewhere after ETS), all you are out is the cost of the option, and what you paid on the lease.3.) If house and land prices collapse, you can simply not exercise the option, and buy another property elsewhere.

Regardless, you should roll your 401(k) into a Gold IRA. (Talk to Swiss America.) There is no tax hit for a simple rollover.

If gold zooms up past $2,500 per ounce, and the economy simultaneously flashes the master warning light and starts to autorotate, you then pay the penalties and cash out part or all of the gold IRA and exercise your land purchase option with gold or cash.

This is not a perfect solution, but it is something that will provide you a safe haven, yet you won’t have to take a tax hit. YMMV.

More About Front Sight’s New “Get a Gun” Training and Gear Offer

Naish Piazza, the director of Front Sight sent me some of the frequently asked questions about the “Get a Gun” training and gear package offer that I mentioned in SurvivalBlog last week.

1.) What kind of Springfield Armory XD Pistol is given away in this offer?
A Standard Model 4″ Barrel XD in your choice of 9mm, .40 S&W, or .45 ACP. The perfect balance for good gun handling, power, speed and concealability.

2.) Is it 4 days or 5 days of training at Front Sight?
You attend Front Sight’s flagship Four Day Defensive Handgun Course, the course everyone raves about and then stay one extra day for Front Sight 30 State Concealed Weapon Permit Course so you can get more advanced concealed carry training and walk away with everything you need, certificates, fingerprints, and photos to secure CCWs in Florida, Nevada, and Utah. With reciprocity laws, these three permits allow you to carry concealed in over 30 states!

3.) When do I have to attend the course?
The certificate you received from Front Sight has no expiration date so you can use it at any time in the future. Even when Front Sight’s courses increase in price, your certificate is inflation proof and will allow you to attend at no extra charge.

4.) How often does Front Sight offer this course?
Front Sight offers their Four Day defensive Handgun course and 30 State Concealed Weapon Permit Course at least twice per month, every month except July and August.

5.) What days of the week are the courses held? If taking the full five days, the courses start on Friday and ends on Tuesday, so you don’t have to miss an entire week of work, just a couple of days.

6.) Can I purchase the ammunition I need at Front Sight?
Yes. You can either bring factory new ammunition with you or purchase it from Front Sight’s pro shop.

7.) How far away is lodging?
Most students stay at one of three hotels within a 20 minute drive from Front Sight’s world-class 550 acre training facility. Hotel rates range from $40 per night to $75 per night.

8.) How do I get to Front Sight?
It is easy and inexpensive. Simply fly to Las Vegas, Nevada, rent a car, and drive to Pahrump. Front Sight is a 45 minutes drive from Las Vegas or 20 minute drive from Pahrump. Las Vegas is one of the least expensive cities in the world to fly into from just about anywhere in the US.

9.) How long do I have to take advantage of Front Sight’s offer?
Not long. The US Concealed Carry Association (USCCA) members have already surpassed the original number of guns and courses Dr. Piazza set aside for them. I was able to get him to extend the offer but he only did so with the understanding that he could stop it at any time with 48 hours notice, so take advantage of it immediately.

10.) Where can I get more information about Front Sight and their courses?
Go to Front Sight’s web site and click on the link, Front Sight Experience A-Z for answers to most if not all of your questions.

Well, I hope this answers most of your questions about this offer. Don’t forget, Dr. Piazza can end this promotion with very little warning. If you’re thinking of taking advantage of this great deal, then now is the time to take action.

Letter Re: Sign of the Times–An Ambulance Service Shuts Down

Howdy;

My name is Ed and I am a paramedic in central Mississippi. Last month a private ambulance service shut down with only eight hours notice that they would stop operations, leaving 26 counties without 911 Emergency Medical Service (EMS). Other local providers and services were able to help provide coverage. But this is difficult with increasing fuel cost, the ongoing War on Terror and overseas deployments, shortages of personnel and lack of payments from medicare and medicaid and people without any coverage. These are all are driving the remaining ambulance providers out of business. Be safe out there! – Ed

Odds ‘n Sods:

The magic credit tap is turned off: Citigroup, Wells Fargo May Loan Less After Downgrades Meanwhile, we read: Fed members worried about deep recession

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A reader mentioned that Cme Brew is offering a special “stock up” price of $168 (plus shipping) for 50 pounds of current crop, gourmet Arabica coffee beans for home roasting. These beans will store for up to three years. They also have bulk teas in 1 kilo (2.2 lbs.) glass lined, heat sealed bags. Chun Mee, and Special Gunpowder “Temple of Heaven” green teas are $22 per kilo, plus shipping. Each kilo will make about 400-to-500 six ounce servings. Larger orders can qualify for deeper discounts. Tell Charlie at Cme Brew that you heard about it at SurvivalBlog. Phone: 1-800-567-6238

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Bill N. found a forum discussion string that has given him yet another reason to buy older vehicles.

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The folks at ARF-com are all abuzz about possible US production of Steyr AUG-A3s in the near future. If I had to carry a .233, then the AUG would be my choice, mit Trijicon ACOG. (But of course, I’m a dyed-in-the-wool .308 fan. We mainly have L1A1s here at the Rawles Ranch.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.” – Winston Churchill

Notes from JWR:

I dislike the way that the New York Times often posts articles as a teaser for only the first 24 hours of publication, and then requires a registered “free” subscription. (Grumble, grumble.) If the NYT site link stops working, then here is a site that has re-posted Sunday’s “Duck and Cover: It’s the New Survivalism” article, although it is sans the original links.

Letter Re: Horse Breeding Now, and in the Future

Jim,
I wanted your opinion on something. I raise Quarter horses, mostly show prospects and have done this for a lifetime. I own the stallion, I do the breeding of my own mares and ship [straws of frozen] semen all over the country for others. I also train outside horses for a living. As you well know the horse economy like everything else is going down the tubes. I have been down sizing for the past three years as the Holy Spirit has prompted [my string] going [down] from 60 to 30. I did not breed any of my mares back this year and my focus is continuing to downsize. I know the job these horses were bred for is no longer going to be available. They will be needing a new job. My question to you is, do you think there would be a market through SurvivalBlog for any of my stock? I breed for good minds, great bones and of course movement (which I understand would not matter to a survivalist) disposition and beauty. These are hearty horses, I believe they could make great work horses, pack horses or just about anything you asked them to be. I think the catch for the horses I would have available would be the fact that some are untrained 2 and 3 year olds. I’m madly working on breaking this last big group, but I can only ride so many a day.
It is just a passing idea. This is my web site if you want to take a peek at what I have. Thanks for your time and honesty. God Bless, – Merry

JWR Replies: In the short term, it might be a good idea to reduce your breeding stock, but in the long term, your brood mares may make you wealthy. I’m sure that some SurvivalBlog readers will be contacting you, particularly looking for mares.

One of the biggest concerns for horse owners, at present, is the high price of feed. The global grain shortage has pushed up feed prices tremendously. Because grain prices will remain high, I expect hay prices to stay high, in sympathy. (Markets are all about supply and demand.) It didn’t help that last spring and summer were dry in the western US, and most hay growers only got one marketable cutting. This pushed hay prices up to insane prices. This prompted many cattlemen and horse breeders to thin their herds.

In the long term, however, high fuel prices and spot shortages will likely cause a resurgent interest in working horses. This is most likely in regions with lush pasture and plentiful hay. In the arid west, where hay is a product of circular irrigation, working horses probably won’t make quite so strong a comeback.

In a post-Peak Oil collapse, horse breeding stock–for both draft horses and saddle horses–would be like gold.

My advice: If you don’t have extensive pastures and own your own hay ground and hence buy a lot of hay each year, then thin your string of brood mares down to just your very best couple of dozen, for the next few years. However, maintain your ranch infrastructure, so that you can “ramp up” to larger production, if need be. Do not sell off any pasture ground, hay ground, stock panels, or haying equipment! Also, hang on to every saddle and piece of tack that you own. In fact, if you have the chance to buy more tack (as the horse market continues to crash), and you have a secure storage space that will keep it safe from mold and mice, then invest in more tack. Doing so will take advantage of the fire sale prices on tack that we will no doubt see for the next few years. To amplify on our previous exchange of e-mail: You can breed horses, but you can’t breed tack. In a few years, all those new horse buyers will be screaming for saddles and tack! Buy low and sell high.

One ironic situation we may see in the next decade: All over rural America, there are antique horse-drawn hay mowers that are now rusting away as yard ornaments. I predict that many of them will be oiled up and pressed into service. Hopefully, they won’t be too far gone.