Note from JWR:

The bidding is still at $500 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction, for a scarce pre-1899 antique Finnish M39 Mosin Nagant rifle from my personal collection. This rifle was rebarreled by Valmet during WWII, and is in excellent condition. It comes with a replica bayonet, original sling, and original muzzle cap. Since the receiver for this rifle was made in 1898, it can be mailed directly to the winning bidder’s doorstep, with no FFL paperwork! The auction ends on October 15th. Just e-mail us your bid.

Distinguishing Wants from Needs in Preparedness Planning

My consulting clients often ask me for advice on their preparedness purchasing programs. Some of the items that I’ve see them purchase in the name of “preparedness” make me wonder. For example, a family that recently relocated from Michigan to Idaho’s Clearwater River Valley purchased matching snowmobiles for every member of the family. But they now live in a climate where in some years they only have snow that “sticks” for two or three weeks. In most years they will have to put their snow machines on trailers to get up to the high country to use them much.

Another client in Wyoming bought a brand new off-the-lot Hummer H1 Alpha Utility (4 door). With a price tag of around $128,000, he could have bought four or perhaps five 4WD crew cab pickups for the same amount of money. Sure, H1s have great off-road capability, but now he owns a vehicle with dubious parts availability and that just screams “Rich Guy Coming!”

I also have a wealthy client in Texas that bought 20 pre-ban Galil .308 rifles for his extended family’s retreat. He said that he wanted “the best”. He also bought 200 spare 25 round waffle magazines for them, at a whopping $80 each. That is is $16,000 just for the spare magazines. Talk about insanity. (OBTW, when I asked him about ammo, he said that he “planned” to buy 2,000 rounds per rifle, but when we last spoke, he “hadn’t gotten around to it.”) For the same amount of money that he spent on the Galils and spare magazines he could have bought nearly 90 post-ban FN-FAL rifles and 2,000 magazines.

These illustrations are provided not as ridicule, but merely to point out that folks should learn to distinguish wants from needs They should also forget about earning Mall Ninja “style points” and instead concentrate on practicality. Unless you are a multimillionaire, you cannot lose sight of prioritizing your purchases. And, regardless, everyone should have a well-balanced set of tools, skills, and logistics.

Most of my consulting clients take a methodical, well-balanced approach to their planning and procurement. When I do on-site consulting, I ‘m regularly surprised by their ingenuity and resourcefulness. Often it is the people that are clever, methodical, and hard working that are better prepared than the wealthy few that just “throw money at the problem.” Some of these, as I’ve mentioned, have clearly gone overboard in a few areas. Do your best to make a purchasing plan and stick to it. Don’t go overboard in one area at the expense of another. Preparedness is more than just a fancy gun collection. It takes balance: food storage, gardening supplies, canning supplies, medical gear, communications gear, reliable vehicles, fuel storage, field gear, cold weather gear, night vision equipment, and so forth. Maintaining that balance takes both concerted planning and self-control.

Also remember: You can have the very best tools in the world, but if you don’t have the skills to match, then those tools are little more than ornaments. I would much rather own a $1,000 rifle and spend another $1,000 training at a place like Front Sight than I would owning a $2,000 rifle.

Letter Re: A Reader’s Perspective on Assembling a Survival Firearms Battery

James
I am a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber and daily reader of SurvivalBlog.com. I have found much helpful information provided by you and other readers and appreciate all of the work you do. Having read the articles concerning self-defense weapons, It seems that many readers get side tracked
I have owned, fired, hunted with and reloaded numerous caliber’s over the last forty or so years and although I by no means consider myself an expert I am very experienced and well informed. That being said I would like to talk about weapons and calibers relating strictly to the purpose of this site, survival and preparation.
When considering survival/preparedness weapons there is no doubt that the most useful are the 12 gauge shotgun and the .22 [rimfire] rifle and handgun. Both of these [chamberings] are extremely flexible in their ability to be used for defense and hunting. A marksman with a scoped Ruger 10/22 can do a lot of damage at fifty yards, especially with the high capacity magazines available for this rifle. Many deer have been taken with this little caliber. At closer ranges there is nothing short of a hand grenade that is more devastating than 12 gauge 00 buck shot.

Of the high power rifle calibers, readily available today, the .308 reigns supreme for our purposes. It performs extremely well as a long range sniper/hunting caliber in a good bolt action scoped rifle such as the Remington 700 or is considered the caliber of choice for a battle rifle such as, my favorite, the M14/M1A. It is also available in another of my favorite rifles, the Browning BLR lever action. This is a magazine-fed lightweight rifle that would work for low profile situations where a military type weapon might attract attention. With practice it is capable of fast follow up shots and spare magazines could be carried with different types of bullets appropriate for different situations. Like the bolt action and unlike the semi auto, it will feed any .308 cartridge without concern for malfunctions.

The 30-06 is an old favorite of mine and many good rifles are chambered in this caliber including the M1 battle rifle of WW II fame. I keep a bolt action in this caliber because of the present availability of ammo. It is a little more powerful than the .308 but not enough to be considered an advantage. Even though the 30-06 is an older caliber it still maintains popularity and has a good following. There is no new development of battle rifles chambered in this caliber and it will probably be restricted to sporting rifles with the exception of the older M1. [JWR Adds: or FN49]. I would not recommend this as the main stock up caliber but it could be a secondary.

There are many other popular options such as the AK47 in 7.62×39 and the AR 15 in 5.56NATO/.223 and, too numerous to count sporting calibers, but none will meet the all-around requirements that are necessary for our purpose as the .308. Most other calibers are only suited to limited uses. The .223 is a good varmint cartridge and has been overrated as a military round. Just talk with the guys that had to give up their M14 in Vietnam for the M16 and those coming back from Iraq today. The 7.62×39 is better and is chambered in a reliable AK47 rifle but in a face off the 7.62NATO/.308 in a M14/M1A is going to kick butt. You don’t see any AKs at the National Matches.

There are more different opinions as to the best handgun caliber than there are presidential candidate platforms. In my opinion, for our purpose, the first choice is a .22 revolver. It is able fire any kind of ammo you can scrounge up without considerations of jamming or performance and you can easily store thousands of rounds.

Next will be your main defense handgun. The big difference here is choosing between a revolver and semi automatic pistol. The advantage of the revolver is reliability and the ability to shoot a multitude of different types of ammo without impeding the operation of the weapon. If ammo becomes scarce you could cast your own bullets and use a multitude of different powders as long as you have brass and primers and still be able to fire it from a revolver. A semi auto is much more sensitive to bullet shape, composition, ignition pressures and case sizing. It would be much more difficult to reload pistol ammo to operate effectively in a post-SHTF situation.

The number one man stopper is still the .357 magnum. For this purpose it performs better than much larger calibers and can defeat the protection of a vehicle. This caliber is found primarily in revolvers and has the advantage of firing the less powerful .38 caliber ammo in the same revolver. The disadvantage has been the limitation of six round cylinders compared to higher magazine capacity of a pistol and also slower reloading time. Smith & Wesson has come out with the Model 327 with an eight round cylinder capable of using moon clips or direct loading. Practice using moon clips can get reloading time very close to that of a pistol. The .357 is coming back into favor as a primary defense round. The .38 can be found in the most popular concealed carry handgun, the S&W 642 J frame snub nose.
The most popular self-defense pistol calibers are 9mm, .40 cal. and the tried and true .45 [ACP] caliber. Police departments have been the main force in proving the popularity of the .40 [S&W] caliber. I personally prefer the 9mm using +P ammo. 9mm [Parabellum] is a much more popular round and in a TSHTF situation it will be more readily available. Also my wife can easily shoot it.

I also prefer the .45[ACP] to the .40[S&W] because of its proven knock down power and continued availability of ammo. Here again .45 ammo will be much more available and a tremendous number of guns have been chambered in this caliber. I believe the .40 could get hard to find in hard times.

My primary stock is:
12 gauge 00 buck, #6 [bird]shot, slugs
.22 LR both hollow point and lead round nose.
.308 both ball and expansive point bullets in 165/168 grains.
.357 magnum 158gr hollow point.
.38 +P hollow point and wad cutter
9mm +p hollow point

My secondary stock is:
.45 ACP ball and hollow point
.30-06 180 grain expansive bullets
I could easily switch the 9mm for the .45 but the availability and price of ammo is a factor.
Your primary stock should be a few different calibers, each in large numbers. Stocking calibers that can be used in several different types of weapons is also advantageous. You may have other favorite guns chambered in other calibers and there is nothing wrong with these. For the purpose of preparing for TEOTWAWKI, stick with the popular first and then add the rest. Also remember that you are better off with fewer high quality weapons than more of the cheaper low quality. Breakdowns can get you killed. – Jack R.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Speaking at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming conclave in August, Yale University Professor Dr. Robert Shiller said that residential house prices might fall as much as 50% in some former real estate boom areas. As evidence, he cited how much home prices have escalated in comparison to rents. Personally, I think that 50% is an optimistic figure. Given the pendulum-like nature of macro market swings, I think that prices in some cities like Phoenix and San Diego may drop at much as 65% from their peak. And it may take five or six years before prices hit bottom. I predict that in two years, the newspapers will be filled with “tales of woe” human interest stories, with plenty of articles about home owners that are upside down in their mortgages, in default and walking away from their McMansions. They’ll leave it to the bankers to tidy up the mess.

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A hat tip to SJC for sending us this Financial Times article link: IMF head warns on impact of credit crisis

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Chris D. recommended this article at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) site: Treasury claims power to seize gold and silver — and everything else

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The folks at Safecastle (one of our most loyal advertisers) mentioned in an e-mail that they have put some of their most popular items together onto a single Practical Holiday Gifts page. I’m sure that any of your preparedness-minded friends or relatives would be tickled to receive any of those items as Christmas gifts.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"But a constitution of government, once changed from freedom, can never be restored. Liberty , once lost, is lost forever." – John Adams, Letter to Abigail Adams, July 7, 1775

Note from JWR:

A reminder that the special “six pack sale” for autographed copies of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” is still underway. The sale price of a box of six books is now just $90, postage paid. (Normally they are $22 per copy, but during this sale you get six autographed copies for $90, mailed in a Priority Mail Flat Rate box, sent to anywhere in the United States, including APO/FPO addresses.) This sale ends on October 31st. This is your chance to buy some extra copies for Christmas presents.

Letter Re: BBC/Discovery Channel Documentary on Asian Avian Flu

Hi Jim,
Last night I watched a superb two hour documentary on one of the science [cable television] channels about the coming avian flu pandemic. It was a co-production of the Discovery Channel and the BBC, so I’m sure everyone with cable television will have a chance to see it.

The documentary weaved between the predictions and projections of top epidemiologists, and a fictionalized account of the breakout in Cambodia, and its spread worldwide. The 1918 Spanish Flue pandemic was also used as a major point of comparison. All of the experts on the show said it is not a question of if, but when the bird flu pandemic explodes. They expect a 10% mortality rate minimum among the infected, with our health system totally overwhelmed. The antiviral medicine Tamiflu won’t prevent but will only slightly delay the pandemic, because it has no carry over effect. That is, as soon as Tamiflu stocks run out, the pandemic carries on at full speed. They expect the pandemic to launch worldwide within a month of the H5N[“X”] virus making one or two minor mutations to allow rapid human to human transmission. The new pandemic will spread much more rapidly than the 1918 [influenza] virus, because of the speed of jet travel. From the first bird flu first case in the USA to every city and town in pandemic crisis will take 90 days, according to their projections. In sum, it may take only four months from virus mutation to completely blanketing every town in the USA. Schools will be shut down, and at least 40% of workers will be off of the job, causing severe economic fallout.

They even showed and interviewed a suburban couple who are concerned enough to lay in “preps” for four months at home, including a generator, fuel, a water well etc. For once, they were not portrayed as “survivalist kooks” but more in the light of, “everyone should be making a plan like this.” A main point of the show is that ordinary people just cannot grasp the speed with which this pandemic is expected to breakout and travel worldwide, or the fact that there is no medical solution to the problem. It will have to burn itself out, with many tens of millions dying. The purpose of the documentary was given as causing people to ponder and discuss the issue and begin to make their own preparations. Once the mutation and breakout happens, events will proceed much too rapidly to make decent preparations at the national, local or even family level.

I would highly recommend that all SurvivalBlog readers keep and eye out for this documentary and watch it very carefully. – Matt Bracken

Letter Re: Home Alcohol Distillation

Jim–
I have been fascinated by the material in the book “Alcohol Can Be a Gas!”. My first walk-through was a bit disappointing because of what I thought was a lot of fluff until I got to how to use alcohol as a fuel. Then I went back and read about distilling alcohol. Then I realized the author was saying alcohol is a by-product (he uses the term “co-product” to show all the products have value). Then he explains how a small farm operation could be self-sustaining, power, heat, fuel and food. Sounds like a survivalist’s dream. I’m anxious to go back and read everything in the book.It is 500+ pages. It is $46, but worth it (I don’t have a dawg in this hunt.)

Chapter 12 “The micro-distillery farm” is the one that will get you thinking: waste heat from the still warms the mushroom facility; mushrooms are growing on the leftover mash; fish are thriving on the liquid part of the mash leftovers; earthworms get 1/3 of the mash to make castings. Alcohol fuels all the machinery, plus heats food, and on and on. Well, you’ve got to read it to catch it all. – Bob

Letter Re: Silver as an Inflation Hedge

Hi Jim,
First of all please pardon my English but this language is hard to learn, especially being from Cuba.
Let’s talk about silver. As a survivalist one of my tools is silver and at this time I am using that survivalist tool. At this time my cost per gallon of gasoline is of $1.21 and the reason for that is that I pre-paid for my gasoline for the next two years in one oz silver rounds.

Back in 1972 I paid $4.90 per ounce for my silver and in 1980 I sold it for $63.65 per ounce. I started once again in 1982 and stopped in 2002 when I had all that I needed. (There is a difference between “need” and “want”) and my average cost was $5.16 per ounce

At first cash will be king because that’s all that the American public is familiar with but with time they will educate themselves and precious metals will be king.
As soon as the general public in China and India start to buy silver the the price will explode, I don’t say the US because most people here are already broke. As time goes by my silver will go up in price and I will pay less for my gasoline and other items which will be very hard to get in the future. There is a lot more but I hope that you get the general idea.
PS: I already have food for 4-1/2 years, water for free from a creek, live out in the woods and I’m ready to rock and roll. “To be ready is not”. – Ponce

Cold Weather Survival Tips, by David in Israel

James,
Winter is coming [in the northern hemisphere]. An important skill is treating and preventing cold exposure, especially if a person is disabled and on the ground. The ground steals heat through direct conduction and by absorption of moisture.
Always go out well fed, include plenty of protein, copious warm hydrating liquids, and fats. Together these break down in a heat generating reaction as well as providing large amounts of energy for more heat generation.

Have a way to make a warm drink. A Thermos is skimping, better a small stove that is easily lit and kettle that will let you melt snow and make hot water to drink, this saves your body from having to heat
your drinks and also raises your core temperature if you get chilled or worse. Cold drinks bring down body temperature and the metabolism required to heat it to body temperature nearly requires as much water as you are consuming, un-melted snow is actually hydration negative due to the metabolism [required] to bring it to body temperature.

Insulate from the ground, dry grass leaves, seat pad foam, clothing, whatever. The ground will steal your body heat quickly.

Share warmth with a friend or more, huddle, hug, stack up as injuries allow.

Protect the heat loss areas. Cover first the head, then armpits, groin, trunk, and finally the extremities.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Writing in the September, 2007 issue of The American Rifleman magazine, Walter J. Kuleck reports that there is a logistical support problem for the thousands of M14 rifles that have been issued to US troops deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Kuleck writes: “…there is essentially no support available through Department of Defense channels–no parts, accessories, magazines, tools or documentation beyond a new Preventive Maintenance [PM] Magazine comic book and a 40-year-old manuals printed from on-line PDF files. The Army has made some efforts to buy back parts surplused decades ago and to purchase new walnut stocks, for example. Most components, however, are either acquired by individuals using personal funds or by combat units directly from stateside sources or scavenged from cannibalized rifles.” I have heard from three different “designated marksman” soldiers that are SurvivalBlog readers that they’ve had to beg relatives in the states to buy spare M14 magazines and mail them to their APO address, because they were issued an M14 with just a scant few magazines. One of them told me that he was issued his M14 with just one magazine. What a sad state of affairs. Our troops deserve better logistical support!

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AVS suggested an MP3 file of a sermon by Dr. Robert Dean of West Houston Bible Church, on our Founding Fathers and Genuine Freedom.

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Stephen in Iraq sent us this article on Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD): First it was honeybees. Now it is decimating native Bumblebees.

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By way of SHTF Daily comes the story of a modern day ghost town: ‘Nobody expected this to continue’ — it didn’t Phoenix suburb shows what can happen when gambling on housing boom. Just as I had predicted, the folks upside down in their mortgages are starting to just walk away.

Note from JWR:

The bidding is still at $500 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction, for a scarce pre-1899 antique Finnish M39 Mosin Nagant rifle from my personal collection. This rifle was rebarreled by Valmet during WWII, and is in excellent condition. It comes with a replica bayonet, original sling, and original muzzle cap. Since the receiver for this rifle was made in 1898, it can be mailed directly to the winning bidder’s doorstep, with no FFL paperwork! The auction ends on October 15th.. Just e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Night Vision Gear for a Long Term Collapse

Sir:
I’d appreciate your advice. I am in the process of getting my family dialed-in for a long term collapse. (My main concern is a post-Peak Oil economic collapse.) Since I expect “the problem” to last at least 5 or 10 years before the economy gets reorganized (at a much lower level, and prolly much more dispersed and localized), I have worries that if I get a Starlight scope or goggles that they will be inop[erative] within three or four years, given constant use. From all that I’ve read, even the best [light amplification] tubes eventually burn out. I’m also worried that it would take 40 or 50 rechargeable batteries–even those gee whiz nickel hydride “no memory” batteries to last me [through the scenario]. What is the best alternative for someone looking at a 10+ year problem, yet still wanting the advantages of Starlight-type technology? And is there anything else that is low tech (other than friggin’ bells on strings) that I can use for night time defense of a retreat out in the wilds? Thank You Sir, – Allen D.

JWR Replies: There are a couple of alternatives that I can suggest. First, is buying a brand new “low hours” Gen 2 or Gen 3 night vision scope that uses standard type AA batteries plus a spare intensifier tube, and of course plenty of spare batteries. My recommended suppliers for Starlight weapon sights and goggles are JRH Enterprises and Ready Made Resources. For full mil-spec units as well as spare intensifier tubes, talk to STANO Components. For additional rechargeable batteries at a discount price, contact All-Battery.com. As previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, every well-prepared family should also have a small PV panel for battery charging.

One lower technology alternative to Starlight technology, as described in my novel “Patriots”, is tritium-lit scopes, such as those made by Trijicon. I am often quoted as saying that I consider them “the next best thing to a starlight scope.” I still do. We have six of these scopes on our rifles here at the Rawles Ranch, including three ACOGs. The half-life of tritium (a gaseous isotope of hydrogen) is 11.2 years, meaning that through radioactive decay they have one-half of their original brightness after 11.2 years. So the practical effective life of a tritium scope is 22 years, and the practical effective life of tritium iron sights is 33+ years. (The latter are much too bright for my liking when new from the factory. We have three Colt M1911 series .45 ACP handguns that were retrofitted with factory-fresh Trijicon iron sights in 1994. Now, some 13 years later, in my opinion they have only just now “mellowed” (by radioactive decay) to the point that I consider them practical for tactical night shooting. I probably won’t have them replaced until around 2024. Trijicon scopes and iron sights are available at quite competitive prices from CGW. (One of our advertisers.) Tell them that Jim Rawles sent you.