Letter Re: Ammunition Prices in the Future?

Dear Mr. Rawles,
When it comes to ordering ammo, I have had excellent experiences with the folks at Century [International] Arms. While their selection has narrowed down a little lately, Century has one feature that few can match: a $7.50 flat shipping fee for ammo and guns. I have literally ordered 200 pounds of ammo from them and the shipping was only $7.50.
Since ammo is essentially lead (one of the heaviest things going) shipping has always been a big issue. That $25 can of ammo from a dealer in Arizona isn’t such a great deal when it costs $30 to ship it to my AO!
I own a gun shop and I order fairly decent quantities of ammo. I especially like to lay in surplus ammo when the price is right. A couple months ago Century had Yugoslavian 8mm Mauser ammo on stripper clips in sealed 900 round cans for $49.95 per can (dealer price). I ordered 15,000 rounds of it. This weighed several hundred pounds and shipping was free because the order was over $500.
Definitely shop around for ammo prices and buy big when it’s priced right, but if you can find free shipping, then that can often make a slightly more expensive ammo purchase a bit more palatable. – RMV

Odds ‘n Sods:

Aside from some overtly political Quote of the Day blog entries, I do my best to downplay political issues in SurvivalBlog. This is primarily because the blog has an international readership. (After all, what interest would someone in France or Indonesia have in American politics, any more than I would have an interest in theirs?) But I do make an exception for the border control issue. Clearly, lax border security could be the modus operandi for terrorists, possibly with weapons of mass destruction. So that makes this political issue also a survival issue! If you are concerned about border security, then please take a few minutes to sign this on-line petition. Thanks! (A hat tip top Sid for mentioning the poll to us.)

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Reader Mark H. mentioned The Backwoodsman magazine. Mark’s comment: It has a lot of good survival and low-tech living information and isn’t full of itself like a lot of the better know outdoors magazines are.

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Mike the Blacksmith flagged this Financial Times piece for us: Learn from the fall of Rome, US warned

A Full Scale U.S. Dollar Panic Before November?

The news wires were abuzz last week about the global credit squeeze. Bankers are unwilling to make loans when they can’t calculate risk. What risk? Here is a big one: Many of their clients have derivatives exposure, which means that lenders can no longer calculate their credit worthiness. In the banking world, the standard “safe” answer to any loan question in the absence of data is almost universally no. I surmise that if this situation gets any worse, governments may step in and make loan guarantees. (Meaning that the taxpayers would shoulder the risk instead of the bankers.) That may be the only thing that will get bankers to start making new loans to derivatives holders–which include nearly every major corporation, these days.

With the sub-prime contagion spreading, there is the potential for a sharp break in the U.S. stock market. That will surely push the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. (With the hope that the increased liquidity will stave off a recession.) But lower interest rates will discourage foreign investment and may spell doom for the U.S. Dollar. The Chartist Gnome tells me that if the U.S. Dollar (USD) Index drops below 80 for more than one week, all bets are off for the dollar. In a recent commentary, Jim Sinclair sized up the massive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. His conclusion: These moves will badly tarnish the dollar and will likely push the USD Index down to around 72. I concur. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a breakdown to the 65 level.

There could be a major devaluation of the dollar–whether formal or informal–within the next few week or months. If foreigners start dumping their dollar-denominated assets, watch out! This could even snowball into a full scale dollar panic. The Chinese have already threatened to jettison their U.S. Dollar holdings. If carried out, that alone could have huge implications. Economist Peter Schiff has an even gloomier prediction than mine. He predicts that the US Dollar will lose half its value.

What does all this mean for the average American? Already, the weaker dollar has made some imports painfully expensive. Does the next few months spell ruin just for the bankers and big stock traders, or does it spell ruin for most Americans? I think that inevitably everyone that holds dollars will suffer. Granted, bank accounts are insured by the FDIC to up to $100,000 per individual. But that won’t mean much if our currency tips over into hyperinflation. That will make bank deposits effectively worthless in very short order. So how will this play out? I’m not entirely certain. Credit squeezes are traditionally deflationary. But government invention like last week’s is highly inflationary. (To better understand deflation, see Bob Prechter explanation of credit squeezes, deflation, and economic depression.) I’ll still predict an inflationary outcome. Governments love inflating their way out of monetary crises. It is much less painful for them that way. (Deflation is painful for everyone involved.) And since inflation is a hidden form of taxation, it will be the citizenry that ultimately bears the burden. (Just ask the average Zimbabwean how the past 10 years has treated his real net worth.)

My advice: Shift the majority of your investments out of anything dollar-denominated, right away. The only exception would be holding no more than 20% of your assets in short-term TIPS, which are automatically inflation adjusted. (Series I US savings bonds are also inflation protected, but I discourage investing in such long term bonds.) To be ready for mass inflation, you’ll need your wealth primarily in tangibles. That way, if the dollar loses value, you’ll be protected. I’m talking about silver, gold, productive farm land, and hard goods like tools, guns, and common caliber ammunition. The timing? Again, hard to predict, but look for some continuing large ripples in the financial waters for the next two months. Then, perhaps in October, be prepared for some massive wave action. Historically, major move in the US equities markets tend to happen in October. Be prepared.

Letter Re: Food Reserves and Summer Kitchens

Hello James,
Not long ago, our friends at FEMA destroyed six million MREs, (which we taxpayers had purchased at a cost of $40 million). Why? Because of storage conditions. Now this is an extreme example: FEMA placing food products in unrefrigerated containers under the Gulf Coast summer sun. But it does serve to illustrate that no matter how large one’s pantry may be, to avoid turning that food into so much garbage, you have to monitor storage conditions.

Our “summer kitchen” at our home/retreat occupies a 200 square foot area in one of the outbuildings. This room is double insulated and drywalled. In the summer, with outside temps as high as 100 degrees, it seldom rises above 75 inside and no air conditioner or cooling mechanism is used. We do have a 220 volt thermostatically controlled baseboard heater, plus a wood/coal stove to provide backup heat in the winter when it may drop below freezing inside. Two deep freezes and a small refrigerator are situated here, as well as an apartment sized propane gas range/oven. (A 500 gallon propane tank sits outside.). In a true emergency, we could prepare all our meals here. It is 50 feet from the main house.

A door on one wall of the summer kitchen leads to our insulated and finished pantry area. (In essence, the pantry is a room within a room). Both cooling and heating are provided, although ambient temperatures generally stay above 40 degrees in the winter and below 65 in the summer. We monitor the temperature using a remote thermometer with a readout in the main house. The walls are lined with commercial grade shelving (sold at the big box stores), so nothing rests on the concrete floor. Our food storage is deep and diverse, supplying a well-rounded, 3-year diet for a family of four. To track all this inventory, shelf-life, etc.., we have come to depend on a computer program called “Food Storage Planner”.

Our freezers are stocked with meats, fish, butter and other perishables such as chocolate bars, nuts and dehydrated fruit. We have a commercial grade vacuum packer and everything that goes into the freezers is vacuum-packed and labeled. Hint: When vacuum-packing fish, freeze it before packing, or you’ll end up with seafood mush. During the summer, the refrigerator holds several cases of canned cheese (University of Washington Dairy Farm) and canned butter ([Best Prices Storable Foods aka] The Internet Grocer). In cold weather, the refrigerator is shut down and the contents moved into the pantry. We recently added a 5 cubic foot freezer which is filled with MRE main meal (entree) packets.

The recent thread on fats and oils highlights an often overlooked area of food preparedness. Our pantry contains 25 gallons of oils, including olive, canola, peanut and corn, plus 100 pounds of butter (canned and frozen). We also stock a large amount of canned meats and fish, smoked salmon, UHT processed whole milk, etc.., so the dietary intake of fats and oils should be sufficient. We have found that by storing these oils between 45 and 60 degrees at all times, their shelf life is extended almost indefinitely.

Man does not live by bread alone, so comfort foods occupy some shelf space. Grandma’s Fruit Cakes (the big ones!), cases of MRE pound cakes and number ten cans of brownie mixes constitute the bulk of this category. Maple syrup, sweet sorghum, pancake syrup, cocoa and lots of coffee are also on hand.

Several shelves hold first aid and OTC drugs and medications as well as use-only-as-a-last-resort antibiotics and anti-fungals purchased at aquarium supply shops. Another shelf is stocked with whiskey. (Neither one of us drink the stuff).

A 6.5Kw Yamaha generator and a solar system provide backup power for the freezers. Plans are to install a fuel efficient diesel power plant and 500 gallon diesel tank next year.

How long did it take us to put this whole shebang together? A good ten years. We couldn’t afford a big shopping trip, so we always tried to bring home that extra item from the store. Maybe a brick of .22 ammo. Maybe an extra can of coffee or a bag of flour. It’s amazing how quickly the shelves fill. Those items that we can’t cycle through fast enough, we donate to the local food kitchen.

Hoping for the best, planning for the worst. – Dutch in Wyoming (A 10 Cent Challenge Subscriber)

Letter Re: Power Takeoff (PTO) Generators?

Jim:
A short comment on using any power source without a governor to drive a generator. While it will work, it will not maintain a constant voltage or frequency under varying loads. I am 69 years old and have watched people build “tractors,buzz saws, water pumps etc” over the last 60 years using car or truck engines. Usually with very little luck. A tractor has a decent governor and will maintain a near constant RPM from about 10 % to 100 % load. Old tractors often used oil pressure to control RPM, don’t know about the modern ones as mine was built by Case in 1964 and still works great. A lot of Ford 8Ns still in use were built before that. Many people have used a snow blower and it indicates how a good governor works. The unit runs at nearly a constant RPM as you use it and the load varies from near 0 % as you approach the snow, to near 100 % of its usable output as you go into the snow bank. If the governor is disconnected or fails, the unit is unusable for all reasonable purposes.

The major reasons for using a PTO generator are all given in the link, low RPM motor with excellent governor, used often so fuel and engine are fresh, easily portable as it usually is on a 2 wheel cart attached to the tractor, and you have a power unit that can be used for many purposes every day.

My personal choice is a 20 or so HP unit, compact, low noise, fuel efficient, reasonable cost, available in diesel or gas, can be used in the woods or for small scale farming now and for any number of things if TSHTF. – JDT

JWR Replies: Thanks for your comment. Until you mentioned it, I hadn’t remembered that constant RPM (via a governor) was crucial. Home lighting, pumps, and traditional refrigerators/freezers are relatively flexible on input voltage, but most home electronics are not. Unfortunately, with each passing year, more electronics creep into what were heretofore purely electrical appliances. Even some brands of mundane chest freezers and washing machines now have electronic circuitry including microchips. This has three major drawbacks: 1.) Vulnerability to EMP, 2.) Greater difficulty for individual owners to do their own repairs, and 3.) The requirement for relatively “clean” input power in a fairly narrow input voltage range. The latter is something that many generators cannot provide.

On a related note, SurvivalBlog reader “Poikilo” mentioned that some of the new hybrid trucks on the market (such as the Chevy Silverado Hybrid) can also in effect be used as a generator. The question is: Are the truck’s 110 VAC outlets sourced directly from an AC winding on the hybrid engine generator, or are they powered by an inverter that draws on the vehicle’s batteries? I’d be curious to know what sort of load those 110 AC outlets could handle.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Courtesy of SHTF Daily: Israeli website causes panic in NY. I’ve warned SurvivalBlog readers before: The DEBKA files material is predominantly gray propaganda that originates from the Russian Federalnaya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti (FSB).

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Reader J.D. recommended this vendor for knives: The Outlaw Knife Shop. I haven’t done business with them yet, but they seem to have a great inventory!

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I’ve been told that there are just a couple sets left for the outstanding Medical Corps “Medical Response in Hostile Environments” field medicine course. It will be held on August 24-25-26 at the Ohio State University Extension Campus in Caldwell, Ohio.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." – Ludwig Von Mises

Letter Re: Power Takeoff (PTO) Generators?

James:
If my military 6×6 troop carrier‘s engine will run on multi-fuel (diesel, gasoline, mothballs, etc.) Why can’t someone make a generator that would connect to the power takeoff (PTO). That way I have a generator that runs on any fuel, and will go anywhere. Perhaps one of your readers could explain why this should be added to my list of really dumb ideas. – DAV

JWR Replies: If the engine can be set to a moderately high RPM with the load of generator for extended periods of time, then it isn’t a dumb idea at all. PTO generators are commonly used with farm tractors. Check the Internet tractor supply vendors such as Messick’s.
I assume that your 6×6 has a PTO spindle that is similar to those on tractors, and hopefully it has a common dimension “haft.” (If not, there is probably an adapter available.) I also assume that your 6×6 also has a manual throttle that you can lock in position, right? If so, you’re in business!

Letter Re: GMRS Versus 2 Meter FM Transceivers–a Field Test

Jim:

I recently went for a drive with both my Uniden GMR 1058 handheld radio (GMRS/FRS [band, and according the manufacturer’s literature] boasting a 10 mile range) and my newly-acquired ICOM IC-V85 FM [2 Meter band] Transceiver. I had my wife (with one of each as well) on our porch and here are my results. As I drove though the hilly and wooded terrain, immediately the GMR radio was picking up other kids and families and taxi drivers also talking. At 1/4 a mile the sound quality became unintelligible and communication was impossible. If no one else was on the line, morse code might have worked. I called her on my cell and told her to turn off the Uniden and to switch on the ICOM. I was able to speak and hear clearly for about 3.5 miles. Remember, none of this was line of sight. At about 3.5 miles communications became sketchy and I had her put on a collapsible antenna and stretch it out. It was a 2 Meter 5/8ths wave Super Stick II manufactured by Smiley Antenna Company. She stretched it out and communication was clear again for a few more miles. When communication became weak again, I put the longer antenna on mine and stretched it out inside my car and went out to about 10 miles. At that point it got weak again and I got out of my car and put the antenna vertical and was able to hear her with better quality than my cell phone. I went a mile further and parked in an industrial complex with metal buildings surrounding me and heard her with perfect clarity. So IMHO the FRS/GMRS radios are toys only good for short range direct line of sight. For serious communications, get a FM transceiver and you must have a detachable antenna so you an mount a longer antenna to it. You might also consider the ICOM IC-V8000 with 75 watts of power (or something similar) and a decent antenna for base operations. Being designed for a car it would operate off a car battery. The greater power would allow you to transmit signals to a greater distance (although I wouldn’t want to be more than a day’s walk from my base anyway) and the bigger antenna (A Diamond antenna X200 is 8.3 feet and an X510 is 17 feet) should also allow you for reception from a greater distance as well. – SF in Hawaii

JWR Replies: Thanks for taking the time to do those test.they confirm my previous finding on FRS and GMRS radios. The term “toys” is a good description! In between the power if FRS and 2 Meter radios are most MURS band radios. Unlike 2 Meter ham hand-talkies, these do not require a license in the US. That is what we uses here at the Rawles Ranch. The band is also much less crowded than the CB radio band. In fact, the MURS band is virtually unused in many parts of the country. These transceivers typically transmit 2 watts. (Four time the power of FRS radios.) With a good antenna, MURS hand-helds can achieve commendable range–far better than FRS radios.

Letter Re: A Nearby Wildfire Was My Preparedness Wake up Call

James:
Don’t know if the callow-youth angle is of interest to your readers, but I dashed this off after a recent wildfire alert: This evening around 5:30 there were reports of a fire very near my
home. Wildfires around here can get interesting quick, especially this late in the year with plenty of dry fuel waiting around. I thought we might have to Get out of Dodge and so I ordered the wife to pack up the paperwork and prep the munchkin for a few days field trip.
Error. Wife does not respond well to orders, and she judged the threat to be considerably less than I did.
I then went to grab my bug-out bag and load it in trusty escape vehicle. Mixed results. My Bug Out Bag (B.O.B.) was in pieces all over the garage and house, as parts of it had been used in recent camping
trip, some for vacation travel, or in my guru-bag for my work.
Assembling the kit under time pressure and while checking in on the radio/tv/internet news, hounding the wife to follow through on evacuation procedures…it was not going too well. Stress induced
tunnel vision slows people down and invites errors.
A few hours later the fire was under control and we wound down and turned in for the night.
Lessons learned:
Discuss relative priorities ahead of time, so when the time comes to move out there is less wasted effort in communication.

Rechargeable batteries are great for daily use, but useless in a bug-out situation. Not enough extras were charged and ready to go, so my two-way radios, extra Mini-Maglites, and backpacking GPS were useless. Keep a stash of copper-top [Duracell]s or lithiums on hand for when they are needed.

Keep your evac vehicle ready to roll. My escape vehicle was in moderate condition. The truck bed was loaded with junk I’d slated for a dump run, and only one of the two fuel tanks was full. Better to be empty of junk and topped off. Other minor problem: Not road-legal for three bodies.

Keep your B.O.B. packed with dedicated gear. If you can’t grab and go, it isn’t a B.O.B.Yeah, your best flashlights live there. So what. Make the second rate gear take the daily wear and tear.

Gear to make life bearable and the more readily portable valuables / memorables could have been collated and loaded, but it would have taken quite some time. Lesson: Get some Rubbermaid bins. Number them. Stow gear numbered by load order so as to make finding things easier. Items not likely to be needed in the short-term get loaded first. Print up inventory list and tape to inside lids, along with
a cheapo LED keychain light. This way important equipment gets loaded quickly and my loved ones can find what they need in my absence, even on the side of the road in the dark. Keep a few
extra bins for rapid-load of household items such as family photo albums, insurance paperwork, etc. Keep the weight manageable by the weakest person likely to be helping load.

I had I planned to haul off any fuel or ammo I had, for the safety of any rescue workers. Since I do not yet have a large volume to move, I thought it polite. Having a garage explode or a case of
ammo cook off could ruin somebody’s day. Remembering where all gas, kerosene, Coleman’s, fuel canisters, target ammo, real ammo, gopher-killer ammo were stored and getting it all together was a
minor challenge. Lesson: Keep ammo stored centrally and securely. Keep fuels stored outside garage in locking cabinet.

Alternate evac routes were planned, but only in my head and on screen. Should keep paper maps in all cars. Review routes in advance. Two alternate routes, two alternate rally points. Practice them in advance by taking the ‘scenic route’ to ‘grandmas house’.

[My original] plan was for her to head out very early in this scenario on with our precious cargo and take shelter at our fallback place while I loaded gear and stood ready to defend the home front against fire or looters until such time as I needed to bail out. With everything but property already secured, I know I would not spend much time playing hero. In the future, I want to plan on a one
vehicle evac, so I know where my most important cargo is and have a second set of hands and eyes to help in getting there intact.

Planning and wishful thinking don’t go very far to securing the safety of your family and property. It can all fall down fast with sloppy execution. I now intend to finish my summer by being able to pack up with a few minutes notice and be safely out of town. Thanks for all the good advice and references I have found here. – The Hushmailer

Odds ‘n Sods:

Russell suggested this article on The Nightmare German Inflation (circa 1922-1924) You will note some strong similarities to the hyperinflation in present-day Zimbabwe, as described by Cathy Buckle. And, BTW, if the Federal Reserve over-reacts to the current credit crunch, they could crash the US dollar, too.

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Dave S. recommended a web page at the C. Crane radio web site, on preparedness.

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Frequent contributor Ben L. sent this: Fifty percent of U.K. drivers cannot read a map. If you find your family’s map reading skills lacking then spend a few weekends orienteering. Great exercise for both the brain and the leg muscles.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The totalitarian states can do great things, but there is one thing they cannot do: they cannot give the factory-worker a rifle and tell him to take it home and keep it in his bedroom. That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer’s cottage, is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there.” – George Orwell