"We should reserve a storehouse for ourselves, altogether ours, and wholly free, wherein we may hoard up and establish our true liberty." – Montaigne, Essays
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Note from JWR:
The high bid is now at $210 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a for a new-in-the-box Hydro Photon UV Light SteriPen Water Sterilization System with solar charger and pre-filter, kindly donated by Safecastle, one of our most loyal advertisers. This very popular water sterilizer product package normally sells for $225, plus postage. See the details on the SteriPen and solar charger here. The auction ends on September 15th. Just e-mail us your bid.
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Projecting Some Possible Outcomes for The Panic of 2007-2008
I’m sure that you’ve been reading about the current liquidity crisis. But I’m not sure that the average citizen realizes the full implications. Twenty years ago, borrowed money was a lubricant for the American economy. Now it is the economy. Without credit at all levels–consumer, corporate, and government–America as we know it would cease to exist. We live in what economist Bill Bonner calls The Empire of Debt. Because of the lending crisis, the U.S., economy is teetering on precipice. Writing in his Reality Check e-newsletter this week, Dr. Gary North pointed out: “On August 15, the 90-day T-bill rate was 4.21%. The next day it fell to 3.79%. That was a one-day drop of .42 percentage points. As a percentage, it was a 10% drop. We rarely see 10% moves in one day. The next day, Friday, it was down to 3.76%. On Monday, August 20, it fell to 3.12% . That was another 17% decline. This is not a merely rush for safety. It is bordering on panic.”[Emphasis added.] This crisis can have huge, unforeseen macroeconomic effects.
I think that the term “panic” is a good description for current credit market conditions. In fact, I won’t be surprised if the current credit crisis is someday remembered as The Panic of 2007. Hopefully it won’t be followed by the Depression of 2008 to 2028.
I’ve been asked by several readers for a projected outcome on the current credit crunch. Since no one, not even Helicopter Ben Bernanke can say for certain what will happen, in this article I’m offering a range of potential outcomes. I will also assign a speculative percentage likelihood of each outcome. To assuage the Pollyannas, I will first offer the best case outcome:
1.) Best Case: The Credit Market Staggers Back to Business As Usual
If the recent massive injections liquidity the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are successful at calming credit market fears, and if congress steps up and starts issuing blanket loan guarantees, then perhaps the credit market will recover, and stagger back to some semblance of normalcy. But unless or until that occurs, the credit markets will continue to be petrified by fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). Even in this best case, there will probably be a global recession, while order is restored to the marketplace
As background, let me explain: When in FUD mode, credit does not flow, regardless of low interest rates. Presently, the bankers are beFUDdled: They are reluctant to make loans-to even the heretofore most “credit worthy” corporations because they are uncertain of the true credit worthiness of any borrower that has either primary or secondary (derivative) exposure to sub-prime loan investments. Bankers have a long and worthy history of being risk averse. In situations where one or more risks cannot be fully and properly gauged, their default answer is, was, and always will be, NO. As in: “No, I won’t approve this loan.” The only way that they will get out of FUD mode is if the risk can be either be removed (through loan guarantees), or if risk can be properly gauged, through new accounting practices that reveal underlying risks being borne by the borrower. The latter may be difficult to accomplish, because in the past five years the derivatives market has ballooned to gargantuan proportions. There are many trillions of dollars of derivatives in play, with only some very flaky accounting to back them up.
Even this “Best Case” is not a real solution to the Debt Bubble problem. A speedy return to a credit-driven economy is essentially just forestalling the inevitable. The Powers That Be will only be sowing the seeds for an even bigger, more painful unwinding of debt in another few years. Likelihood for this outcome: 5%
2.) Lower Interest Rates, Then Recession
As previously noted in SurvivalBlog, Ben Bernanke and the Fed Board of Governors are stuck. If they lower rates then they will crack the critical support level for the US Dollar Index, which appears sacred at about 80. And if they raise rates, then it will put Wall Street into a tail spin and possibly plunge the economy into depression. In the short term, the Fed will likely yield to political pressure and continue to lower interest rates. But this will be to the detriment of foreign investment, and inevitably to the value of the US Dollar on the FOREX. So I doubt that the Fed will drop the prime interest rate more than 80 basis points (0.8%), including the recent 50 basis point (0.5%) drop. Any further drop could precipitate a full scale dollar panic–a global flight from the US Dollar. After moving within this narrow range of motion, Bernanke, et al will be truly struck–inextricably stuck. Starving for liquidity, the economy will plunge into a deep recession. This recession could last 2 to 5 years. And there could be some variations on this theme (See 2A, 2B, below.) The stock market will decline at lest 20% and corporate layoffs will be be even larger than in recent recessions. Likelihood for this outcome: 60%.
2A.) Coastal Suburban Real Estate Declines to Desperation Price Levels
Regardless of whether or not Bernanke and company pull off a miracle for the bankers, the coastal suburban real estate market will continue to decline. It was so badly inflated–all with easy money courtesy of “Easy Al” Greenspan and his successor–that it may fall by as much as 60% in some overvalued markets like Palm Beach, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Seattle before the market bottoms. Meanwhile, the price of rural real estate in inland regions will probably remain fairly solid–except for resort areas like Hot Springs Arkansas, Sun Valley, Idaho, Vail, Colorado, and Lake Arrowhead, California.
As the market falls and ARMs reset, some home owners will go to extreme measures to save their McMansions. They will sell off at a loss their second homes (mostly in resort locales), sell off their “spec” and rental houses, their fancy cars, fine art, and various collections. One nice fringe benefit: The price of some guns may actually come down for a while. Consider any good quality gun in a common caliber a good choice for tangible investing.
Not all owners will continue to psychologically latch on to their unaffordable houses. Some owners will simply walk away when they get upside down in their mortgages. This will be compounded by corporate layoffs that force families to relocate to live with relatives and/or to seek work. When they realize that the remaining unpaid mortgage principal is far greater that what they if they sold their house, they will do as the Lord Humongous suggested to Papagallo’s band of survivors: “Just walk away.” A lot of them won’t even bother dropping off their door keys at the bank.
2B.) Sequential or Simultaneous Deflation and Inflation
We might see some real economic oddities in the next few years, as the debt spiral unwinds and people are forced to liquidate some assets at a loss. There might be a wave of deflation followed by mass inflation, or even simultaneous inflation and deflation of some prices, such as:
* Precious Metals Up… and Base (Industrial) Metals Down
* Inland Rural Farms Up… and Coastal Suburban/Resort Houses Down
* Groceries Up… and Timber/Lumber, Yachts, and Fine Art Down
* Disney and Coleman Stock Up… and Home Depot, Microsoft and Most Other Stocks Down
* Pickup Trucks Prices Up… and Sports Car/Luxury Car/Classic Car Prices Down
* Imported Goods Up… and Domestically Manufactured Goods Down
* Farm Machinery Up… and Textile, Plastics, and Metal Stamping Machinery Down
* Commercial Greenhouses Up… and Urban Office Buildings Down
Depending on how deep the industrial recession gets, and how much travel is curtailed, we might even see oil and gasoline prices come down to pre-2005 levels. (Of course, if the US Dollar Index slips substantially, then oil prices will remain high since most oil is imported, and less of it will be denominated in US Dollars in the coming years.)
3.) Lower Interest Rates (Within Limits), Then Depression
Picture outcome #2 (above) only worse. The recession doesn’t end. It only gets worse. Corporate layoffs escalate to the point where 30% or more of American workers are out of work. Lower interest rates, loan guarantees, and government job programs are ineffective. The stock market keeps going down. The dollar continues to lose buying power versus foreign currencies. Coastal real estate remains in the doldrums. After three or four years, the anchormen on news networks stop calling it a recession. They call it what it is: a Depression. Similar in some way to the Great Depression, they might call it The Greater Depression. It could last from 5 to 20 years. Likelihood for this outcome: 20%.
3A.) The Cure Worse Than the Disease: HRC Channels FDR
If Hillary Rodham Clinton (HRC) is enthroned in the midst of a deep recession or a depression, I predict that in partnership with the Democrat party-controlled congress she will take the typical New Deal Democrat approach, and begin a massive round of Federal spending to help “revive” the economy. Channeling the spirit of Franklin Delano Roosevelt (or should I say Eleanor Roosevelt, who really ran the show), HRC’s answer will be to throw money at the problem: A whole raft of new “Alphabet Soup” agencies, wage and price controls, currency changes, pork barrel road projects far and wide, massive expansion of Federal job programs, more welfare, you name it—more, more, more government spending.
4.) Global Depression and World War III
Everyone know that if you buy a car on credit and you stop making your payments, the bank sends someone to tow your car away. Nation states do the same thing. I call it kingdom towing. Most people just call it war. In the event of a major Depression, the chance of war will increase dramatically, either because of perceived vulnerability, or because politicians will see wartime spending and national resolve as a means to rouse a dormant economy. Likelihood for this outcome: 10%
5.) Worst Case: Depression, Hyperinflation and Total Socioeconomic Collapse
The Depression and inflation are so severe that law and order completely breaks down and long distance commerce ceases. You’ve read about it before in SurvivalBlog and in my books, so I don’t need to explain it here. Likelihood for this outcome: 2%.
Conclusion
Again, I don’t pretend to have a crystal ball. Take all of the foregoing as educated guesswork. Formulate your own pet scenario and extrapolate outcomes. But above all, be prepared. Tailor your preparations for your climate zone and for the population density and water availability in your area. Quit hesitating. If you have the means to do so, move to a lightly populated retreat area. Even if you decide to stay in the suburbs, get your beans, bullets, and Band-Aids squared away, muy pronto.
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Letter Re: How to Make Old Fashioned Homemade Soap
Mr Rawles,
I’m looking forward to trying Grandpappy’s wood ash soap making technique. I’ve tried it before, but unfortunately only was only successful once. I might add, although unavailable as Red Devil brand in the grocery stores, lye is easily available from online soap making and chemical supplies. [JWR Adds: It is also available via mail order from Lehman’s–one of our Affiliate advertisers.] Another source, if you live in oilfield country, is to find a friend who works on a[n oil] rig. They get it in 50 pound bags and it’s pure and fine for soap making, hominy making or other uses. It comes well packaged in double plastic lined bags and stores well loose in a 5 gallon bucket (the kind with a [rubber] lid seal) lined with a plastic bag. It’s quite hygroscopic, so you need to be careful in humid weather that the bag is tied and the lid is sealed. – Judy B
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Letter Re: Honey Prices Escalating, Just as Predicted
Jim:
Several months ago, I e-mailed you and the others on the blog about bulk honey prices going up. They stabilized at $7.99 for a 96 liquid ounce jug of Silverbow brand honey at Costco for many months. Two weeks ago, a jug of honey was $7.99. As of today, the same jug is $8.79, a 90 cent price increase. I put out some questions as to why the price increase and all I am hearing is minor costs due to dwindling honey supplies (as was discussed in SurvivalBlog) but [also] a greater [wholesale] cost due to transportation costs as well as other business costs such as wages, labor, etc. I’m hoping more blog readers can give some input.
As it stands, the very same honey I bought last year for $7.49 is already paying off. – MP in Seattle (a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber)
JWR Replies: Ah, yes, The Alpha Strategy, proven right, once again.
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Odds ‘n Sods:
By way of SHTF Daily: Bernanke fears economy will hit a brick wall
o o o
I just heard that Gun Parts Guy (one of our loyal advertisers) now offers metric FN-FAL parts kits (sans receivers) complete with US Section 922(r) compliance parts, in a wide variety of configurations. FAL parts kits are getting scarce in the U.S., so stock up. When you order, please mention that you saw the kits mentioned in SurvivalBlog.
o o o
More from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Top Swiss banker attacks US lending standards as ‘unbelievable’
Jim’s Quote of the Day:
“The most important factor in the survival equation is you: Your physical health and your cast of mind–particularly the way in which you handle stress.” – Mel Tappan, Tappan on Survival
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Note from JWR:
If you value what you read in SurvivalBlog, then please consider becoming a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber. These subscriptions are entirely voluntary, but greatly appreciated. They help pay the bills here, including our bandwidth costs, which increase increase steadily as the readership grows. (In August of ’05–the month that we launched–we had 9,377 unique visits and used 6.9 used gigabytes of bandwidth. In August of ’06 we had 87,117 unique visits and used 24 gigabytes of bandwidth. In August of ’07 we expect about 158,500 unique visits, and we’ll use about 82 gigabytes of bandwidth.)
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How to Make Old Fashioned Homemade Soap (Part 3 of 3), by Grandpappy
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
How to Render (Melt) Animal Fat:
Beef fat is called tallow and pig fat is called lard. Poultry fat is too soft to be used by itself, but it may be used in a ratio of about 10% with tallow or a tallow-lard combination. Bear fat may also be used but it must be melted (rendered) quickly after the bear has been killed because bear fat will quickly become rancid. You may also use the fat from farm animals such as sheep or goats, and a variety of wild animals, such as beaver, opossum, raccoon, and groundhog. If there is any lean meat still attached to the fat, cut it off and make sure you only use the fat to make grease.
Melting animal fat is called rendering. Rendering should be done outdoors or in a well ventilated area. The smell of melting animal fat will make most people nauseous. Cut the animal fat into small pieces about one-inch cubed and put them into a pot with about 1/8 inch of rainwater and cook over low to medium heat. Gradually add the fat to the pot and stir to keep the hot grease and solid pieces of fat circulating. As you stir be sure to scrape the bottom of the pot to prevent any fat from sticking to the bottom and burning. Do not burn the fat or allow it to smoke. If it starts to smoke then you are applying too much heat and you are burning the fat or grease.
One pound of fat will yield about 2.25 cups of grease. Most of the fat will melt into a liquid but some small solid particles will not melt and these are called cracklings. After melting the fat, allow it to cool slightly, and then strain it through a clean thin cloth and store it in a sealed container until it is needed. The cracklings will be on the top surface of the straining cloth. Save the delicious cracklings for use in other cooking recipes.
(Note: Raw animal fat can quickly become rancid. Therefore raw animal fat should not be saved and then converted into grease at some future date. The best procedure is to render animal fat into grease while the fat is still fresh. Rendered animal fat has a much longer storage life than raw animal fat.)
(Note: You can also reclaim bacon grease (pork lard), hamburger grease (beef tallow), and other used cooking greases for soap making purposes. The basic instructions are on my web site at: How to Clarify Used Cooking Grease.)
How to Make Concentrated Brown Lye Water:
You will need rainwater (or steam distilled water) and the cold ashes from any hardwood fire, such as oak, hickory, maple, ash, beech, or old fruit trees. Do not use the ashes from a fire that burned pine tree wood.
The cold ashes from any hardwood fire can be converted into lye. Lye made from fire ashes is not as caustic as commercially purchased lye. Any large wooden, plastic, or clay container may be used, such as a huge flower pot. A deep container is better than a wide container. The container should have a hole in its bottom center and that is why a flower pot is perfect. Do not use a container made of tin or aluminum because lye is caustic and it will react with these materials. (Note: Or you could use a container with a side-mounted water valve, such as a 5-gallon water jug.)
For example, I use a clay flower pot that has a 9 inch outside diameter top, a 5.5 inch outside diameter bottom, and it is 9 inches tall, with sides and a bottom that is 0.25 inch thick. When packed with cold ashes to within 2.5 inches of its top, it holds approximately 145 cubic inches (about 10 cups) of tightly packed cold ashes. Ten cups of tightly packed cold ashes will yield one-gallon of average strength brown lye water. Tightly packed means the loose ashes were pressed down firmly into the cup. If you use a different size container, then you should do the math to determine how much average strength brown lye water you will get from your container.
Caution: Lye water is caustic and it will burn your skin. Be extremely careful and wear rubber gloves and wear goggles when handling lye water. If possible, lye water should be made outdoors.
Firmly pack a layer of straw, or brown pine needles, or sand about one-inch deep in the bottom of the container to help keep the ashes inside the container. Firmly pack cold ashes from any hardwood fire on top of the bottom layer. Slope the top surface of the ashes slightly from the sides of the container to its center to help direct the water flow to the center of the container. Tightly pack the ashes to within two to three inches of the top of the container, depending on the size of the container. This empty top space is necessary to receive and hold the hot rainwater when it is first poured into the top of the container.
Place the large container on top of concrete blocks, bricks, or any other type of support so a second smaller container (at least one-gallon or four-quarts) can be placed beneath the center of the upper pot to catch the brown lye water as it drips through the hole in the bottom of the upper pot.
Rainwater is the best water for making brown lye water because it is soft and it contains no minerals or chlorine. Several easy ways to collect large quantities of rainwater can be found on my web site at: How to Find Water and Make It Safe to Drink.
(Note: If you do not have access to rainwater, then you may use the steam distilled water sold at most grocery stores. Steam distilled water is chlorine and mineral free water. Instructions for making steam distilled water are also included in the above water article on my web site.)
Your objective is to make approximately one-gallon of brown lye water from one fresh batch of cold hardwood fire ashes. Heat about one-half gallon of rainwater to boiling and then slowly pour it over the ashes in the upper container. If the ashes were packed down firmly they should not be swimming or floating in water. While the rainwater gradually disappears into the ashes, heat another one-half gallon of rainwater and then slowly pour it over the ashes. Wait about one-hour and then heat another one-half gallon of rainwater and slowly pour it over the ashes. Wait about one-half hour. If your brown lye water container has about one-gallon of brown lye water then you may stop. If you do not yet have one-gallon of brown lye water, then heat another one-half gallon of rainwater and slowly pour it over the ashes. When you have finished you will have poured a total of approximately 1.5 to 2 gallons of hot rainwater into the pot of ashes. It may take a little while for the water to make its way through the ashes and out the hole in the bottom of the upper container. Be patient. The liquid that drips into the smaller container on the ground will be brown lye water. 1.5 to 2 gallons of hot rainwater will yield approximately one-gallon of brown lye water. (Note: The ashes will absorb and retain between one-half to one gallon of rainwater, depending on the size and shape of your container and how tightly you packed down the ashes in the container. Discard the used ashes after you have extracted one-gallon of brown lye water. If you need more brown lye water, then use a fresh batch of hardwood fire ashes to extract your next gallon of brown lye water.)
Wear rubber gloves and goggles when handling the brown lye water because it is caustic and it will burn your skin if it comes in contact with your skin. If you get some lye water on your skin, wash it off immediately with soap and water.
If necessary, the brown lye water can be stored in a safe container, such as a stainless steel pot with a lid, or a glass jar with a lid. However, the best procedure is to use the brown lye water immediately to make soap.
(Note: There are several different methods for testing the strength of the brown lye water but none of them are necessary. There is no reason to complicate the soap making process by attempting to get the brown lye water to a specific strength prior to using it to make soap. If your lye water is at the recommended average strength, then you will make a good all-purpose soap. However, if your lye water is a little stronger than average then you will produce a good laundry soap. If your lye water is a little weaker than average then you will produce a good bath soap. Therefore don’t be too concerned about the strength of your brown lye water. You will need both laundry soap and bath soap, and you will be making soap frequently if you are out of soap. Therefore you can tolerate a little variability in the strength of your brown lye water. Besides, you will be boiling off most of the brown water anyway before you use it to make your soap.)
(Note: Some recipes recommend that you pour the brown lye water through the same batch of ashes several times in order to increase the strength of the lye water. This procedure has marginal value. The first extraction of the lye from the ashes will remove most of the usable lye from the ashes. Trying to squeeze a little more lye out of ashes that have already been seriously depleted of their lye is just not practical. On the other hand, a single extraction of lye from each new set of ashes will yield brown lye water that is of approximately the same strength each time, and this will result in a more predictable soap making process that can be replicated over and over again. From a quality control perspective, this means the process will have less total variation and therefore it should yield a product that is more consistent from one batch to the next. When you have a consistent stable process, it is easier to fine tune the process and improve the quality of your finished product.)
There are three methods for making soap from the brown lye water as follows:
Method 1 – Brown Lye Water: Some soap making recipes recommend using the brown lye water in the same strength as it was originally created when the rainwater was poured through the ashes. This method requires a much larger soap making pot and it also adds several hours to the soap stirring process. This is the traditional method that was used in the 1800’s and it is the method that is still used today in many third-world countries. If you have a really, really old soap making recipe, then this is probably the method it describes. The major difficulty with this method is that it requires considerable skill and experience to consistently produce usable soap. Relatively minor mistakes or poor timing when using this method will result in a batch of nasty stuff that is neither soap nor anything else worth using. That is the reason this method was abandoned by our ancestors when commercial lye crystals became available at the local hardware and general store. Lye crystals significantly reduced the time required to make soap and they also yielded consistent batches of good usable soap.
Method 2 – Lye Crystals: Some modern soap making recipes recommend boiling down the brown lye water until nothing remains except lye crystals, and then saving the lye crystals in a safe container for future use. Later, when you want to make soap, you add the lye crystals to a little fresh rainwater and make fresh lye water. This method adds an unnecessary step to the soap making process and it does involve some danger when reconstituting the lye crystals into lye water. (Note: These homemade lye crystals are very similar to the lye crystals that were once widely available at most hardware and grocery stores. However, it is no longer possible to purchase lye crystals at the grocery store because they were withdrawn from the market because they were being used to make illegal drugs.)
Method 3 – Concentrated Brown Lye Water: This is the method I developed out of necessity, and it is much more practical than either of the above two methods. Boil one gallon of normal strength brown lye water down into 3/8 cup of concentrated brown lye water. If you boil the brown lye water down before you use it in a soap recipe, you can reduce the amount of time it takes to stir the soap mixture by several hours. This also simplifies the trial and error method of combining the lye water and the grease and it significantly reduces the possibility of making a failed batch of unusable soap. If you start with one-gallon (16 cups) of original strength brown lye water, then it usually takes between 3 to 4 hours to boil it down to 3/8 cup of concentrated brown lye water, depending on the amount of heat used. This means you will have reduced the subsequent old fashioned soap stirring procedure by at least 3 to 4 hours. As the water gradually boils away, the boiling process begins to proceed faster and faster because there is less water remaining in the pot. By the time the water is down to one-quart or less, it boils away very quickly so you will then need to watch it carefully to make sure you don’t boil off all your water. (Note: If you make a mistake and boil the one-gallon of brown lye water down into less than 3/8 cup of concentrated brown lye water, then wait until the concentrated brown lye water cools a little bit, and then add just enough rainwater to return the concentrated brown lye water to the 3/8 cup mark. Add the rainwater slowly and be careful because the mixture may sputter a little bit.)
(Final Note: The Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe that I developed through trial and error specifies the use of the concentrated brown lye water made by following Method 3 above. However, as mentioned previously, most really old soap making recipes recommend putting the brown lye water and grease into a big pot and cooking it over a big fire for several hours and stirring it while it cooked. The reason for the big fire was because they were using original strength brown lye water that contained too much water to make soap. Therefore they had to boil the water off and this frequently resulted in a failed batch of soap, or a batch of soap that was gritty, lye heavy, and of very poor quality. If you follow my Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe at the beginning of this article, you will notice that it is not necessary to cook the soap mixture. The reason is because the brown lye water has already been boiled down to the correct ratio of water to grease using Method 3 above. If a person does not know about Method 3 then he or she will probably invest a lot of time and energy in a multitude of unsuccessful attempts to make soap, and repeat the very same mistakes our ancestors did in the 1800’s before the invention and sale of commercial lye crystals.)
SUMMARY:
A brief summary of the most important critical information from “Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe” is as follows:
A. Boiled rainwater poured through ten cups of tightly packed ashes from a hardwood fire will yield one gallon of average strength brown lye water.
B. One gallon of average strength brown lye water should be boiled down to 3/8 cup of concentrated brown lye water.
C. 3/4 cup of concentrated brown lye water should be mixed with 2 cups of warm grease which was made from melting (rendering) almost any type of animal fat.
D. When stirred the lye and grease will combine together in a chemical reaction to make soap. This normally takes between 30 minutes to 3 hours. The soap mixture must be kept above the melting point of the type of animal fat you are using.
E. When the soap mixture traces, pour it into a mold and let it rest for one to seven days, depending on the type of animal fat or oil used. Then remove the soap from the soap mold.
F. Air dry the soap for another 2 to 6 weeks. The chemical reaction will then be 100% complete and all the lye and grease will be gone. The lye and grease will have been converted into homemade soap.
The major contributions this article adds to the body of knowledge about soap making are items A, B, and C above. Items D, E, and F can be found in any good soap making book and at a variety of Internet web sites, with both minor and major variations.
CONCLUSION:
Knowing how to consistently and successfully make soap from rainwater, campfire ashes, and animal fat takes you one step closer to becoming an independent resourceful human being in God’s natural order of things.
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Letter Re: Advice on Construction a Hiding Place for Precious Metals in a Home
Jim,
After being scared Schumerless by the potential US economy meltdown and reading various related posts on SurvivalBlog, I finally took the plunge and purchased some junk silver coins. Since I plan to store these at home rather than a bank safe deposit box (because of potential accessibility problems), would you please recommend a strategy for storage. I’m assuming a small, somewhat hidden, safe bolted to the floor/wall would be reasonable. Any recommendations? Thanks, – Russ S.
JWR Replies: Unless you already own a large home vault–such as a gun vault–I recommend that you construct one or more secret caches in your house. If the weight is modest, you can simply hide a bag or box of silver coins under the insulation in your attic. Keep in mind that it will probably be resting on top of horizontal ceiling sheetrock, so keep the weight under 15 pounds!
To conceal up to 200 pounds of silver, you can make a Rawles “Through The Looking Glass” Wall/Door Cache. Even someone with just rudimentary skills can make one of these “between the studs” wall caches. These are simple to construct, and will go un-noticed by all but the most astute and methodical burglars. Here is how even someone inexperienced with carpentry can do so, in typical North American wood frame houses–with modern sheetrocked walls: Pick out a section of sheetrocked interior partition wall in a bedroom where a wall-mounted mirror wouldn’t look out of place. Go to your local home “Big Box” store such as Home Depot or Lowe’s and buy a vertical mirror that is at least 16 inches wide, and 4+ feet tall. (Ideally, you should get one that is the the same width as your wall’s stud interval, so that the mirror mounting screws will attached the sheetrock into the studs. Such mirrors typically come with a set of L-shaped mounting clips that attach to a wall or door with screws. Figure out where any wiring might be running through the wall. Typically it will run horizontally, about 1 foot up from the floor, parallel with your power outlets. Do not pick a section of wall that is near a light switch, since vertical wires may be running though those wall sections. Plan to mount mirror at least 6 inches above the wiring. Look for small indentations, puckers, or other signs of nails attaching the sheetrock. These will typically be centered either 18″ or 24″ apart. If you can’t spot the nails or screws you can either buy or borrow an inexpensive magnetic stud finder–a little magnet-on-a-pivot gizmo that reacts when you pass it over a nail head or drywall screw head. (A bit of judicious tapping to hear pitch changes can also be helpful.) The nails will be driven into vertical studs, and it is between two 2″x4″ studs that you will cut your cache hole. It will provide you a caching space that is about 15″ wide and 3-1/2″ deep.
Once you’ve estimated where the studs are, drill some small exploratory holes in the sheetrock, at a sharp angle. Probe inside the hole with a length of coat hanger wire to confirm where the vertical studs are located, and whether or not there are any horizontal 2″x4″ fire stop blocks. (Those are typically half way up each wall.) Then, with a power jig saw or a SawzAll, cut a hole (or holes) to provide access to the wall cache dead space. Leave at least 2 inches of sheetrock width around the hole that will be covered by the mirror. Remove any insulation from the cache area, and vacuum out the sheetrock dust. Place your valuables in the cache. If there is substantial weight, do not rest it directly on top of any wiring at the bottom of the cache. (You should first cut a support block out of 2×4 block and screw it in place with drywall screws.) Then neatly mount the mirror over the hole, measuring carefully and/or using a level so that the mirror will be mounted straight up and down. Accessing the cache will just take a few minutes to remove the mirror mounting screws. (Or about 10 seconds (rip!) with a claw hammer if you need to Get Out of Dodge in a real hurry.) If you need to access the cache frequently, you’ll find that if the screws are screwed only into sheetrock and not into studs behind, then the screw holes in the sheetrock will become enlarged and the screws will eventually loosen. If that happens, you can install anchor bolts behind most of the screws. (Remember, I mentioned leaving at least a 2 inch overlap. You will need that width of sheetrock to support the anchor bolts.) Oh, by the way, the same technique can be used to created a similar–albeit more shallow–cache inside a hollow core bedroom door. One neat trick with a door cache is to only remove the top mirror mounting brackets when you access the cache. With those removed and the door slightly open you can simply slide the mirror up to reveal the cache opening.
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Odds ‘n Sods:
The next WRSA shoot is in Douglas,Wyoming, this weekend (August 25-26.). Don’t miss this opportunity for some great rifle training at a very reasonable price!
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Frequent content contributor DAV mentioned this article: Panic in U.S. money markets! by Marty Weiss and Mike Larson.
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We read that Counrtywide Home Loans is having “difficulties.” I predict that lots of other home mortgage lenders will face similar “difficulties” in the near future. In a year, many of them will be history. As I’ve said before, the only folks in the real estate industry that hat will fare well in the next few years will be foreclosure specialists.
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Jim’s Quote of the Day:
"Frankly, dear public, you are being robbed. This may be put crudely, but at least it is clear." – Frederic Bastiat, Economic Sophisms
Note from JWR:
The high bid is now at $150 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a for a new-in-the-box Hydro Photon UV Light SteriPen Water Sterilization System with solar charger and pre-filter, kindly donated by Safecastle, one of our most loyal advertisers. This very popular water sterilizer product package normally sells for $225, plus postage. See the details on the SteriPen and solar charger here. The auction ends on September 15th. Just e-mail us your bid.
How to Make Old Fashioned Homemade Soap (Part 2 of 3), by Grandpappy
How to Make Special Types of Soap using Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe:
All-Purpose Soap and Bath Soap:
Use 50% beef tallow and 50% pork lard in Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe.
Facial Soap:
Use 25% beef tallow and 75% pork lard in Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe to make a soft facial soap.
Laundry Soap:
Use 100% beef tallow in Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe.
Soap Flakes:
To make soap flakes, rub a bar of hard soap made from 100% beef tallow (or any other hard fat) over a vegetable or cheese grater (shredder).
Soap Powder:
To make soap powder, dry the above soap flakes for 10 to 12 minutes in a 160¬?F oven and then pulverize the dry soap flakes.
Liquid Dish Soap or Laundry Soap or Hair Shampoo:
Add one-pound of soap flakes to one-gallon of boiling rainwater and boil for 10 to 12 minutes. Stir frequently. Then turn off the heat and allow the mixture to cool. Pour the liquid soap mixture into a storage container with a lid. The lid will prevent the mixture from drying out. This liquid soap mixture dissolves very quickly in hot water and it makes dish washing and clothes washing much easier. This procedure will also make a good hair shampoo if the original bar of soap was an all-purpose soap that contained an average amount of lye.
Saddle Leather Soap:
Old fashioned “saddle leather soap” is made by using five-parts beef (or bear) tallow and one-part pork lard in Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe.
Floating Soap:
Either of the following two methods will yield a bar of soap that floats on top of water:
Method 1: Just before Step Four, fold the soap mixture over onto itself several times and stir really well each time in order to add lots of air bubbles into the soap mixture. Then immediately pour the soap mixture into the soap molds.
Method 2: After all the grease and lye has been added in Step One, and the original mixture has been stirred for at least 15 minutes, then add one-teaspoon of ordinary baking soda to the soap mixture and stir really well.
Soap that Lathers and Makes Soap Bubbles:
At the very beginning of Step One, replace one-fourth of the grease with either olive oil or coconut oil. (Note: In my opinion, olive oil and coconut oil both have better uses than making soap bubbles.)
Other Soap Additives:
Kerosene (“coal oil”), ammonia, vinegar, Borax, sugar, milk, honey, and several other chemicals that are occasionally recommended as soap recipe additives provide minimal or no benefit, and may even have a minor negative impact. My suggestion is to not use any of them. However, if you wish to experiment with additives such as oatmeal or salt or Vitamin E, then I suggest you do so with a small batch of soap, and then verify for yourself that the advertised benefits actually materialize in the soap that you make, and that they don’t introduce other problems into the soap making process.
Volume or Weight:
Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe is based on volume (cups). As of August 2007, most other good soap making recipes are based on weight because of the variation in the weight to volume ratio of the different types of animal fats and vegetable oils that can be used to make soap. These other recipes are based on a very precise concentration of lye water made from commercial lye crystals. If you are working with two variables, and you can hold one variable constant, then it is not too difficult to predict the amount of the second variable that needs to be used. However, commercial lye crystals are no longer available, so it is not possible to easily control the lye variable as a constant in the soap recipe. For this reason I decided to use the easier method of measuring volumes (cups) of lye and grease instead of the more precise scientific method of using weights. When you are working with brown lye water made from campfire ashes, your lye water will be whatever strength it happens to be on the day you make it. If you use Grandpappy’s Homemade Soap Recipe then you will be very close to the correct ratio of water, lye, and grease that is required to make good soap. However, since there will be variations in the strength of your brown lye water, and variations in the type of animal fat you use, you may need to make minor adjustments towards the end of Step One depending on what you actually see in your soap making pot at that time. These minor adjustments are discussed as Problem One and Problem Two at the end of Step One in the recipe.
Letter Re: Buying a Better Retreat Property Versus Buying More Survival Gear?
Mr. Rawles,
I live in northern New Hampshire and have been “prepping” for the last year. We will be staying in this area for various reasons that I have come to accept. However, my wife has agreed to consider a property in this same small town that would make a substantially better retreat. We currently own 16 acres but on a main state road. We are able to live off of this 16 acres, but my concern is from a defensive standpoint: It is too close to neighbors and the main road, and is just too accessible. We have almost no mortgage. We are considering a 50 acre piece with a small house at the end of a dead end private road, and which abuts an enormous woodlot. It can be heated 100% with wood, and has no close neighbors.
So here’s the big question: do we take on about $200,000 debt for the retreat, or stay here and add to our guns/ammo/food supplies?
We have currently put away: a CAR-15 and 6,000 rounds ammo, two Glocks and 2,000 rounds, one year’s freeze dried food supply for our family, and various other survival gear.
BTW, I have just recently found SurvivalBlog and also just received your novel “Patriots” in the mail. Thank you for organizing this and for the abundance of helpful information it provides. Thank You, – A.D.
JWR Replies: Unless you can move to a substantially safer locale, then in my opinion you are probably better off keeping your current property with minimal debt. You need to weigh the risks versus the benefits of buying the larger property. Ask yourself: How much more self sufficiency would 50 acres provide, versus the current 16 acres?. If you take on a new mortgage, what would the risk be that my bank will foreclose and my home away from me, in a slow-slide depression? (In circumstances where you cannot make your payments.) And, would the 50 acres under consideration offer true privacy? In a worst case societal collapse situation (as I describe in my novel), with hordes of displaced urbanite looters roaming the countryside, nowhere in New Hampshire will remain “hidden and overlooked” for too long. So an end-of the road 50 acre parcel may not be much of an improvement.
To make a viable retreat, you need to plan ahead to team up with other families to provide 24/7/365 (and 360 degree) security. As described in my novel, this will require substantial logistics. It will also mean buying some intrusion detection sensors and night vision gear. If you can’t get firm commitments with the requisite purchasing commitments from other families in advance, then you will have to store food, cots, linens, garden tools, cold/foul weather gear, and so forth for them. Thus, your current “one year” food supply for your family can be seen as just a four month food supply for three families. Buy a lot more storage food. And buy plenty of heirloom gardening seed, too. Another item is of crucial importance: At least one member of your family should attend training at a top flight firearms training school such as Front Sight. (They can then come home and share what they learned with others.) Your money would be better spent on these preparations rather than sinking it into a larger retreat property.
You might consider taking some steps to make your current property less visible. One approach that takes more time than it does money is planting a staggered triple screen of fast-growing trees to block the view of your house and out-buildings from the county road. To be ready for a true WTSHTF situation–again, where you’d team up with one or two other families to defend your property–you might also consider constructing a pair of concrete pillbox LP/OPs overlooking either side of your house. These could be camouflaged with cord wood, to look like jumbled wood piles.
Odds ‘n Sods:
Reader Steve H. alerted us that a scan of a brochure from the Kelsey-Hayes Company, Detroit, Michigan for their pre-fabricated fallout shelters, circa 1963 is available for free download at Flicker.com,
This set includes scans from a Life magazine feature called “Fallout Shelters” from a September 1961 issue.
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Karen B. mentioned a couple of interesting low-budget do-it-yourself (DIY) projects featured at LifeHacker.com: Build a solar water heater for under $5 and Get free air conditioning with a DIY heat exchanger
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